• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.212-232
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• 2011

The main objective of this study is to establish a population projection method based on the biregional cohort-component method and to apply it to population projections for Busan. Some drawbacks of using the net migration cohort-component method in a regional or local level population projection are demonstrated. A biregional cohort-component method, a variant of the interregional cohort-component method, is established as an alternative where in-migration and out-migration are separately considered and then are combined to produce a projection for the migration component. Predicated on the established method, population projections for Busan are undertaken for the period of 2005~2030 under three different scenarios. Considerably different projection results are obtained between the net migration and biregional methods; among others, the trend of population decline is more severe in the former than in the latter. An investigation of the temporal trend of the projected population shows that the proposed method is highly reasonable. In conclusion, the proposed method based on the biregional cohort-component method seems not only to be theoretically more robust than the net migration cohort-component method but also to be very effective in the real world application.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.351-365
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• 2019

This study aims to predict the changes in population distribution in Korea by considering spatio-temporal characteristics of major migration reasons. For the purpose, we analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of each major migration reason(such as job, family, housing, and education) and estimate the transition probability, respectively. By appling Markov chain model processes with the ChapmanKolmogorov equation based on the transition probability, we predict the changes in the population distribution for the next six years. As the results, we found that there were differences of population changes by regions, while there were geographic movements into metropolitan areas and cities in general. The methodologies and the results presented in this study can be utilized for the provision of customized planning policies. In the long run, it can be used as a basis for planning and enforcing regionally tailored policies that strengthen inflow factors and improve outflow factors based on the trends of population inflow and outflow by region by movement factors as well as identify the patterns of population inflow and outflow in each region and predict future population volatility.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.47-59
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• 2021

This study aims to review the trends of the population outflows in the metropolitan area of Busan and to investigate the factors that affect population out-migration to the Seoul metropolitan area. The following variables are considered for analysis: traditional population movement variables and quality of life variables, such as population, society, employment, housing, culture, safety, medical care, greenery, education, and childcare. The 'domestic population movement data', provided by the MDIS of the National Statistical Office, was used for this research. Out of the total of 57 million population movement data in the period 2012 - 2017, population outmigration from Busan to the Seoul metropolitan area was extracted. Independent variables were drawn from public data sources in accordance with the temporal and spatial settings of the study. The multiple linear regression model was specified based on the dataset, and the fit of the model was measured by the p-value, and the values of Adjusted R2, Durbin-Watson analysis, and F-statistics. The results of the analysis showed that the variables that have a significant effect on population movement from Busan to the Seoul metropolitan area were as follows: 'single-person households', 'the elderly population', 'the total birth rate', 'the number of companies', 'the number of employees', 'the housing sales price index', 'cultural facilities', and 'the number of students per teacher'. More positive (+) influences of the population out-movement were observed in areas with higher numbers of single-person households, lowers proportions of the elderly, lower numbers of businesses, higher numbers of employees, higher numbers of housing sales, lower numbers of cultural facilities, and lower numbers of students. The findings suggest that policies should enhance the environments such as quality jobs, culture, and welfare that can retain young people within Busan. Improvements in the quality of life and job creation are critical factors that can mitigate the outflows of the Busan residents to the Seoul metropolitan area.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.176-191
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• 2011

The regional supply and demand for labor are different among the regions because of the regional disparity of the human capital and the industrial structure. Honam, Kangwon and Jeju province in particular has a more rapid change of the job search(labor supply), the job offer(labor supply) and the employed person according to the business fluctuations. The employed person of the capital region, Seoul in particular increased: though diminished the job offer and the job search grew. But the employed person of Youngnam and Honam province in particular decreased: though grew the job offer and the job search diminished. The employment rate and employment opportunity of all population group except the high-educated person are higher in the capital region than the province. The province has a low employment rate even in the managerial work and the professional work that the employment opportunity is high because of the lack of human capital.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.145-151
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• 2008

A novel method was suggested for the estimation of design population and design wastewater flow rate in fishing and agrarian village. Even though the population was decreasing continuously in this area, the design population was considered as constant with the passage of the time in conventional methods. And although the portion of groundwater uses was pretty high, the design wastewater flow rate was determined by the supply amount of tap water. Consequently, the design population and the design wastewater flow rate were overestimated. To prevent these overestimates, the design population was predicted to decrease gradually using the population trends from Korea National Statistical Office, and the design wastewater flow rate was determined using the way that the supply amount of tap water was applied in developed areas and the supply amount of groundwater was used in undeveloped areas.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.107-128
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• 1986

본 연구의 목적은 노동력의 사회적 특성적인 면에 있어서 각기 다른 산업에 종사하는 노동력의 "누가" "어떻게" 변화해 가는가에 중점을 두면서 한국의 산업 각 부분간의 변천과정을 조사하는 데 있다. 이 연구에는 1960, 1970, 1980년에 실시된 한국 센서스 자료가 주로 사용되었다. 본 연구의 결과에 따르면 1960년과 1980년 사이의 한국의 산업 구조적인 면에 있어서의 급속한 변화를 보여주고 있다. 그러한 변화들은 주로 경제발전 정책과 더불어 농촌지역에서 도시지역으로의 인구이동에 기인된다고 하겠다. 예를 들면 1960년에 65%의 노동력이 1차 산업에 종사한 반면에 1980년에는 38.5%로 감소했고 이와는 대조적으로 1960년에 오직 8.7%의 노동력이 2차산업에 종사하던 것이 1980년에는 27.6%로 증가하였다. 3차 산업 역시 1960년에 23.8%에서 1980년에 33.9%로 10%의 증가를 보였다. 경제.발전이 이루어지는 과정에서 실업자들이나 잠재 실업자들이 경제활동에 참여할 수 있었기 때문에 경제구조 자체가 예전에 비해 더 안정이 되고 생활수준도 향상이 되었다고 하겠다. 이러한 결과는 부분적으로는 계속된 5개년 경제개발 계획에 기인된다고 할 수 있다. 경제발전 과정에서의 대도시로의 인구집중, 특히나 2차 산업과 3차 산업이 집중되어 있는 서울로의 인구집중은 주택, 교통, 범죄등 많은 문제를 낳고 있다. 동시에 도시지역에의 과잉 노동력의 존재와 농촌지역에는 특히나 농번기에 노동력 부족현상을 야기시키고 있다. 시간의 흐름에 따라 여성노동력의 비율, 전문직과 사무직 종사자, 그리고 서비스분야 종사자들의 비율이 증가하였는 데 비해 대부분의 다른 국가에서 처럼 한국에 있어서도 자영인의 비율은 경제발전 과정에서 감소하였다. 경제발전과 더불어 보다 전문화되고 조직화된 시장중심의 생산체제가 가구와 지역사회 중심의 생산기능을 흡수하므로서 많은 노동력이 임금 노동자가 되었다. 특히나 단순노동을 통한 많은 젊은 여성들을 고용하는 제조산업 분야에서 여성들이 낮은 임금과 과로 그리고 나쁜 작업환경으로 인하여 그들의 건강을 해치고 직업병을 유발할 가능성이 많다고 하겠다. 지난 20년에 걸친 급속한 정부 주도형의 경제발전은 노동력의 제 산업 간의 급속한 변천과 더불어 긍정적인 측면과 부정적인 측면을 모두 낳았다고 할 수 있겠다.측면을 모두 낳았다고 할 수 있겠다.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Rural Architecture
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.77-84
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• 2022

The purpose of this study is to derive implications by comparing the spatial distribution of each service facility per unit population(1,000 people) with population decline areas. For this purpose, major concepts such as living infrastructure services, Spatial Distribution of Rural Living Service Facilities, areas of declining population, and regional extinction were reviewed and trends in prior research. Based on the literature review, 'Spatial Distribution of Rural Living Service Facilities' analysis criteria were set, and it was derived by 'the number of facilities per 1,000 population by township' using population data and rural space data. And the trend of each service sector was identified and implications were derived with 89 cities and counties in 'depopulation areas' suggested by the Ministry of Public Administration and Security. The derived implications are as follows. In the medical, leisure, and sports infrastructure sectors, 'rural areas with few service facilities per unit population' and 'depopulated areas' tended to coincide. In addition, the distribution characteristics of rural and urban areas differed by sector, which is judged to depend on the inclusion of rural facilities and population density.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.11 no.6
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• pp.559-570
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• 2005

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effect of population change on waste emission in the case of Busan City. The results are as follows : First, population and waste emission in Busan City Show decreasing pattern since 1995. According to increase or decrease of population and waste emission, The 16 Gus in Busan City are categorited into 5 types. Comparing the difference of population and waste emission between 1995 and 2003, we find out a similar trend by 16 Gus in Busan City. Second, the waste emission shows the positive relation with the number of population and the land by use. But there exists multicollinearity between population and the land by use, and the population is considered the main factor of waste emission. Third, the population causes 92% or more of the waste emission in Busan City, and future researches are required for the additional causes of waste generation.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.37-51
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• 2024

To respond to local extinction, South Korea, under the leadership of the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, identified depopulated areas in 2021 and launched the Local Extinction Response Fund in 2022. However, due to its early stage of implementation, analyzing the characteristics and changes of policy response to local extinction at the central government level remains a challenge. In contrast, Japan, facing similar issues of local extinction as South Korea, has established a robust central government-led response system based on the Regional Revitalization Act and the Comprehensive Strategy and Basic Policy on Community-Population-Job Creation. Hence, this study examines Japan's policy responses to local extinction by analyzing the first and second periods of the Comprehensive Strategy and Basic Policy on Community-Population-Job Creation. For the analysis, topic modeling was employed to enhance text analysis efficiency and accuracy, complemented by expert interviews for validation. The results revealed that the first-period strategy's topics encompassed economy and society, start-up, local government, living condition, service, and industry. Meanwhile, the second-period strategy's topics included resource, the New Normal, woman, digital transformation, industry, region, public-private partnership, and population. The analysis highlights that the policy target, policy direction, and environmental change significantly influenced these policy shifts.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.55-68
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• 2018

This paper aims to analyze the changes of the population distribution of metropolitan area by the development of the new town-type innovative city, focusing on the case of the Daegu Innovative City. Using dataset in the survey of population trend and the migration statistics microdata provided by the Statistics Korea, we decomposed population changes of Daegu and surrounding regions into natural increase and social increases(net migration). As a result of the analysis, Dong-gu, where the Daegu Innovation City is located, experienced population growth due to its increase of net migration, whereas the total population in Daegu been decreasing continuously between 2007 and 2016. In particular, the occurrence of high net migration to Dong-gu in 2014 showed a pattern consistent with the completion of the Daegu Innovative City development and the relocation of government institutions from the Seoul metro area. As a result of analyzing the migration to Dong-gu, the population moved from the Seoul metro area was 6.9% of the total, while the population moving from the other 7 gu-gun areas in Daegu (35.8%) and the surrounding regions (8.2%) were significantly high. In particular, the migration to Dong-gu were from neighboring areas, such as Suseong-gu, Buk-gu and Gyeongsan-si. Therefore, the development of the new town-type innovative city could accelerate toward sprawling urban structure.