• Title/Summary/Keyword: 인과 모형 분석

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The Analysis of Export-led Growth in the U.S. Economy: An Application for Agricultural Exports by 50 States (미국 경제의 수출견인성장에 대한 분석: 50개 주(州)의 농산물 수출을 중심으로)

  • Kang, Hyunsoo
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.107-133
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    • 2011
  • This paper aims to analyze the causal relationships between agricultural exports and economic growth in the U.S. economy by 50 states. Using the annual data from 1973 to 2007, the theoretical methodologies based on the export-led growth (ELG) model under the static model, the impulse response function (IRF) and forecast error variation decomposition (FEVD) under the vector autoregressive (VAR) model, and the Granger causality test. The results show the causal relationship between agricultural exports and economic growth at the states' level. Especially, the ELG hypothesis is strongly supported in the case of 16 states (HI, ID, KS, MD, MI, MN, NJ, NC, ND, OK, OR, RI, SD, TX, WA, and WI) and is also weakly supported in the case of 31 states. Therefore, the agricultural exports are important factor of developing in the U.S. economy, and furthermore some states (located in coastal area and breadbasket) indicate the strong evidence for agricultural exports-led growth.

A Study on the model found of the duty factor whom follows in old person welfare facility worker holding office duration and organized performance research (노인복지시설 종사자 재직기간에 따른 직무요인, 조직성과의 모형정립에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Woo-Hong
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.15 no.11
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    • pp.233-239
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    • 2010
  • The research which sees the fact that about model found of the duty factor whom follows in old person welfare facility worker holding office duration and organized performance researches in purpose. From theoretical background about the old person welfare facility system investigated a theory about the duty factor and organized performance of literature investigation and the old person welfare facility worker. A theory analysis of positive data led based on about the effect factor of the causality which the duty factor of the old person welfare facility worker reaches in organized performance under verifying boil the modulating effect of holding office duration. The repair which is a duty factor of the old person welfare facility worker, according to the holding office duration which is a personal quality factor job satisfaction the promotion and organized natural features, business environment and organized structure are organized performance and organization immersion and loyalty degree different assumed with the fact that will affect. From positive analysis about the research object verifies a suitable degree about demographics school register analytical and study model, structural equation model leads and construction verification and modulating effect analysis under executing boil.

Semiparametric Bayesian Hierarchical Selection Models with Skewed Elliptical Distribution (왜도 타원형 분포를 이용한 준모수적 계층적 선택 모형)

  • 정윤식;장정훈
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.101-115
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    • 2003
  • Lately there has been much theoretical and applied interest in linear models with non-normal heavy tailed error distributions. Starting Zellner(1976)'s study, many authors have explored the consequences of non-normality and heavy-tailed error distributions. We consider hierarchical models including selection models under a skewed heavy-tailed e..o. distribution proposed originally by Chen, Dey and Shao(1999) and Branco and Dey(2001) with Dirichlet process prior(Ferguson, 1973) in order to use a meta-analysis. A general calss of skewed elliptical distribution is reviewed and developed. Also, we consider the detail computational scheme under skew normal and skew t distribution using MCMC method. Finally, we introduce one example from Johnson(1993)'s real data and apply our proposed methodology.

A Study on the Cause and Effect of Assessment Index of Intellectual Capital and Performance of the Public Library (공공도서관 지적자본 평가지표와 성과의 인과관계 연구)

  • Park, Seong-Woo;Chang, Woo-Kwon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.279-307
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    • 2011
  • Intellectual capital is the driving force for the competitive advantage and durability of the public library. This asset consists of the library members' competences, the organizational structure constructed by the members, and the interrelationships among the people sharing the same interests. These are called human capital, structural capital and social capital in the respective order. The purpose of the study was to provide foundational information for the public library's intellectual capital assessment as well as creating an experimental assessment model. It analysed the three characteristics of the capital, which generated an assessment index. In addition, it identified the relationship between the components of the intellectual capital and performance were discovered through empirical study to improve the assessment system.

Reservoir Sizing for Irrigation to Upland Area with Sparse Data (자료 부족 지역의 밭 관개용수 공급을 위한 저수지 규모 결정)

  • Noh, Jae-Kyoung;Lee, Jae-Nam
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.372-372
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    • 2012
  • 해외 사업에서 지구에 따라 기상 자료가 부족한 지역이 많다. 여기서는 에티오피아의 밭 관개 용수 공급을 위해 일 강우 자료와 월평균 기상자료를 이용하여 일 증발 자료를 생산하여 적정 저수지 위치와 규모를 정한 결과 다음과 결과를 얻었다. 첫째, 구글지도와 DEM을 이용하여 6개의 댐 후보지를 선정하였고, 표고별 저수면적, 저수량 관계식을 도출하였다. 둘째, 기상자료 수집의 어려움으로 한국 자료를 분석하여 현지의 장기간 기상 자료를 가공, 모의하여 적용하였다. 셋째, 현지 유량측정 자료와 한국 관측자료를 이용하여 현지의 합리적인 일 유입량 자료를 생산하였다. 넷째, 현지의 토양조건을 고려하고, 토양수분 물수지 모형을 개발하여 토양수분 부족량 공급 기준의 합리적 관개용수 필요수량을 산정하였다. 다섯째, 저수지 일 물수지 모형을 구축하여, 저수량 일별 모의에 의해 적정 댐 저수지 규모를 결정하였다. 여섯째, 국내 농업용 저수지의 실적 공사비 내역 자료를 참고하여 합리적 수준의 개략 공사비와 총 사업비를 산출하였다. 일곱째, 최적 저수지 위치와 규모로 유역면적 $739.57km^2$인 위치와 만수위 EL. 1,660 m, 총 저수량 3,529만 $m^3$인 규모를 제시하였다.

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Analytical Study between CEO's Performance Expectancy and His Network Activity Characteristics focused on North-West Area Companies of the Chungnam Province (충남 서북부지역 기업인의 네트워크 활동 특성과 성과기대 분석)

  • Choi, Ae-Hee;Lee, Jae-Won;Yun, Kwang-Sik
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.12 no.12
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    • pp.372-384
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    • 2012
  • CEO's business network is important to the establishment and growth of companies and it is recognized as an essential element in regional development, but the related research and studies including surveys on the characteristics and performance of the CEO's network and its activities are lacking. This study aimed at companies located in the northwestern part of the Chungnam to survey about CEO's network activities, and research about the characteristics and performance expectancy of the network was carried out. As research methods, we discussed the previous studies, designed and analyzed the research models empirically using the survey. Analysis based 3 stages approach showed that the performance expectancy on human resource such as recruit was not affected by any factors overall. CEO's satisfaction affect significantly to the both of performance expectations of finance and general management by types of the network and its differentiated program. Executive activities, # of joining network, and period of activity affected also conditionally. This study have contributions that enable businessmen can take advantage of strategic use on the region's business network activity.

Development of Multiple Regression Models for the Prediction of Daily Ammonia Nitrogen Concentrations (일별 암모니아성 질소(NH3-N)농도 예측을 위한 다중회귀모형 개발)

  • Chug, Se-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.1047-1058
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    • 2003
  • Seasonal occurrence of high ammonia nitrogen(NH3-N) concentrations has hampered chemical treatment processes of a water plant that intakes water at Buyeo site of Geum river. Thus it is often needed to quantify the effect of Daecheong Dam ouflow on the mitigation of $NH_3$-N contamination. In this study, multiple regression models were developed for forecasting daily $NH_3$-N concentrations using 8 years of water quality and dam outflow data, and verified with another 2 years of data set. During model development, the coefficients of determination($R^2$) and model efficiency($E_{m}$) were greater than 0.95. The verification results were also satisfactory although those statistical indices were slightly reduced to 0.84∼0.94 and 0.77∼0.93, respectively. The validated model was applied to assess the effect of different amounts of dam outflow on the reduction of $NH_3$-N concentrations in 2002. The NH3-N concentrations dropped by 0.332∼0.583 mg/L on average during January∼March as outflow increases from 5 to 50cms, and was most significant on February. The results of this research show that the multiple regression approach has potential for efficient cause and effect analysis between dam outflow and downstream water quality.

A Study on Attitudes and Acceptance of Port Digital Transformation (항만 디지털 전환에 대한 수용태도와 수용성에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Hyeon-Deok;Chang, Myung-Hee
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.155-178
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study is to derive factors that affect the acceptance of digital transformation in ports and empirically analyze the impact of these factors on the acceptance of digital transformation through a survey of port workers. Additionally, we test whether acceptance attitude plays a mediating role in the relationship between these factors and digital transformation acceptance. The variables used in this study are as follows. First, knowledge, self-efficacy, and involvement were included as variables related to individual characteristics, relative advantages, complexity, observability were included as variables related to innovation characteristics, and government regulations and competitor pressure were included as variables relate to environmental characteristics, so that a total of eight latent variables were selected. The results of this study are summarized as follows. First, two variables among individual characteristics, self-efficacy and involvement, were able to confirm a positive(+) causal relationship with the attitude of accepting digital transformation, and knowledge initially expected a positive(+) causal relationship with the attitude of accepting digital transformation, but the result was a negative(-) causal relationship, so that the hypothesis was rejected. Second, among the characteristics of innovation, complexity has a negative(-) causal relationship with the attitude of accepting digital transformation, and relative advantages and technological innovation have a positive(+) causal relationship with the attitude of accepting digital transformation. Finally, among the environmental characteristics, government regulations and competitor pressure, confirmed a positive(+) causal relationship with the attitude of accepting digital transformation. In addition, it was found that the attitude of accepting digital transformation had a positive(+) causal relationship with personal acceptance and social acceptance of digital transformation.

Possibility of continuous flood modeling by ONE model (ONE 모형에 의한 연속 홍수모의의 가능성)

  • Noh, Jaekyoung;Lee, Jaenam
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.41-41
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    • 2022
  • 홍수는 단기간의 사상이다. 평상시 유량은 일단위로 연속유량이라 한다. 홍수해석은 사상 모형을 이용하고, 물 이용의 용수계획에서는 연속 모형에 의한다. 평상시 유량을 홍수처럼 10분, 30분, 60분 단위로 해석할 수 있으면 여러 가지로 편리하다. 홍수기에는 홍수와 이수를 동시에 분석할 수 있는 이점이 있다. 평상시에는 수문자료가 생성되는 기본단위가 10분, 60분이기 때문에 이와 일치하여 유량을 해석할 수 있는 이점이 있다. 특히 저수지에서는 운영자료가 저수율 자료만 관리되고 있는 현실을 감안하면, 연속 홍수모의의 필요성은 매우 높다. 다목적댐도 그 편의성은 말로 형용할 수 없는 수준이다. 홍수모의는 첨두유량도 중요하고, 전체 누적유량도 중요하다. 여기서는 당초 일 단위로 개발된 ONE 모형으로 연속 홍수모의의 가능성을 타진했다. 모형의 검증은 홍수사상 마다 훨씬 긴 장기간의 댐의 유입량, 저수량 오차로 실시했다. 유입량이 누적되면 저수량이 되기 때문에 저수량을 비교하면 확실한 검증 방법이 된다. 유역면적 930.0km2, 총저수량 8억1,500만m3인 용담댐과 유역면적 218.80km2, 유효저수량 3,498만m3인 탑정지를 대상으로 60단위의 장기간 연속 홍수모의 결과를 제시한다. 첫째, 용담댐에 대해 2020년 3월1일부터 6월30일까지 연속유입량을 모의한 결과(ONE모형 매개변수 α=3.18), 면적우량은 최대 12.5mm, 총 371.2mm(3억4,522만m3)였고, 유입량은 최대 1,363.0m3/s, 총 1억8,326만m3로 유출률 53.1%였다, 관측 유입량은 최대 766.1m3/s, 총 2억9,152만m3로 유출률 84.4%로 나타났다. 관측 유입량이 높은 것으로 평가했는데 그 이유는 산정된 유입량이 넓은 수면적에서 오는 음유입량이 발생하는데 이를 0으로 처리하고, 음의 누적 값이 전체유량에 더해지는 계산의 한계에서 비롯한다. 이는 현실적 제한이며, 개선이 필요하다. 댐 수위로 검증한 결과는 관측수위는 EL.257.97~262.92m, 평균 EL.260.40m, 모의수위는 EL.257.22~262.88m, 평균 EL.260.02m로 나타났고, RMSE는 0.174, NSE는 0.959, R2는 0.968로 만족한 결과를 얻었다. 둘째, 탑정지에 대해 2020년 3월1일부터 6월30일까지 연속유입량을 모의한 결과(ONE모형 매개변수 α=3.18), 면적우량은 최대 18.5mm, 총 311.4mm(6,813만m3)였고, 유입량은 최대 187.8m3/s, 총 3,691만m3로 유출률 54.2%였다. 저수지 수위로 검증한 결과 관측수위는 EL.26.55~29.79m, 평균 EL.29.01m, 모의수위는 EL.26.16~29.92m, 평균 EL.29.07m로 나타났고, RMSE는 0.563, NSE는 0.877, R2는 0.943로 만족한 결과를 얻었다. 정리하면 2020년 4개월의 장기간 용담댐과 탑정지에 대한 1시간 간격의 연속 홍수모의의 결과는 그 활용 가능성이 충분하다고 말하고 있다. 이 결과로부터 평상시 댐과 저수지의 실시간 운영자료 검증 및 생산체제의 수문관측업무에 활용 가능한 것으로 평가했다.

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An Study on the Correlation between Sound Characteristics and Sasang Constitution by CSL (CSL을 통한 음향특성과 사상체질간의 상관성 연구)

  • Shin, Mi-ran;Kim, Dal-lae
    • Journal of Sasang Constitutional Medicine
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.137-157
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    • 1999
  • The purpose of this study is to help classifying Sasang Constitution through correlation with sound characteristic. This study was done it under the suppose that Sasang Constitution has correlation with sound spectrogram. The following result were obtained about correlation between sound spectrogram and Sasang Constitution by comparison and analysis 1. Soeumin answered his voice low tone, smooth and quiet in the survey. Soyangin answered his voice high, clear, fast and speaking random. Taeumin answered his voice low, thick and muddy. 2. Taeyangin was significantly slow compared with the others in the time of reading composition. Taeyangin was significantly slow compared with the others in Formant frequency 1. Taeyangin was significantly discriminated from Soeumin in Formant frequency 5. Taeyangin was significantly low compared with the others in Bandwidth 2. Soeumln was significantly low compared with Taeyangin in Pitch Maximum and Pitch Maximum-Pitch Minimum. Taeyangin was significantly high compared with the others in Energy mean. 3. In list of specification, the discrimination rate was higher than that by lists of 13 in the results of Multi-dimensional 4-class minimum-distance. The discrimination rate of three disposition except Soyangin was higher than that of four disposition in the results of One way ANOVA and Analysis of dis crimination in SPSS/PC+. In CART, the estimate rate of Sasang Constitution discrimination was higher than any other method. It is considered that there is a correlation between sound spectrogram and Sasang constitution according to the results. And method of Sasang constitution classification through sound spectrogram analysis can be one method as assistant for the objectification of Sasang constitution classification.

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