• Title/Summary/Keyword: 인과 모형 분석

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설계홍수의 추정

  • Kim, Seung;Kim, Nam-Won;Kim, Hyun-Jun;Kim, Hyeong-Seop
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 1996.01a
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    • pp.1-95
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    • 1996
  • 전국에 산재한 수위관측지점의 관측개시 이후의 모든 홍수위 자료를 구성하고 주요 지점의 개별 홍수사상에 대한 단위도를 유도하여 지점별 대표단위도를 작성하였다. 또한 유도된 대표단위도를 이용하여 미계측 지점에 대한 단위도와 첨두홍수량을 추정하였다. 연구 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 1991년과 1992년에 이어서 1993년에도 홍수위자료의 수집과 정리에 역점을 두어 관업을 수행하였으며 조선하천조사서, 조선하천조사연보, 한국수문조사연보 등의 각종 문헌에 수록되어 있는 주요 홍수사상의 수문곡선을 판독하여 전국 220개의 수위관측지점에 대하여 총 5,735개 사상의 홍수위 자료를 구축하였으며 이를 자료집으로 구성하였다. 홍수사상에 대한 단위도를 유도하기 위하여 시우량자료는 기상청 자료를 중심으로 구성하였으며 효율적이고 안정적인 능형회귀방법을 이용한 단위도 유도 방법을 적용하여 사용자가 화면을 통해서 홍수사상과 유도된 1mm-1hr 단위도를 보고 적합한 단위도를 선택할 수 있도록 단위도 유도 프로그램을 개발하였다. 대부분의 홍수사상이 지정홍수위 이상인 범위만이 정리되었는데 지정홍수위 이하의 부분은 일수위로부터 읽은 값을 참고로 하고 대수보간을 하여 자료를 구성하도록 하였다. 개발된 단위도 유도 프로그램을 사용하여 지점별 홍수사상별로 단위도를 유도하여 유역별로 총 65개 지점에 대하여 952개의 단위도를 유도하였는데 한강 유역은 16개 지점에서 263개의 단위도를 유도하였고 낙동강 유역은 28개 지점에 460개 단위도를, 금강 유역은 7개 지점 82개 단위도를, 영산강 유역은 7개 지점에서 88개 단위도를, 섬진강 유역은 7개 지점에서 59개의 단위도를 유도하였다. 유도된 단위도들을 지점별로 평균하고, 이를 참고로 하여 Nash 모형을 이용한 지점별 대표단위도를 유도하여 정리하였다. 또한 유도된 대표단위도를 유역에 따라서 지점별로 비교하여 상하류간의 관계를 분석하였으며 신뢰할만한 결과로 판단되었다. 유도된 대표단위도의 첨두유량 및 첨두시간을 유역면적 등과 비교하여 그 관계를 검토하였다. 유역면적과 첨두유량 및 유역면적과 첨두시간의 관계는 비교적 일정한 경향을 보여주었으며 이를 이용하여 미계측 유역의 1mm-1hr 단위도를 추정하였다. 2년 빈도의 설계강우량에 대해서 유역면적이 50, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 20,000$\textrm{km}^2$인 경우 첨두홍수를 추정하였으며 유출률을 0.9로 할 때 4장에서 분석, 제시된 지점별 평균연최대홍수와 비슷한 값을 보여주었다. 따라서 미계측 유역에서는 설계강우량만 주어진다면 본 연구에서 추정된 미계측 유역의 단위도 추정 방법을 이용하여 첨두홍수를 추정할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구의 단위도 유도 대상 지점은 전국의 수위관측지점이었으나 5대강을 제외한 기타 수계에 있어서는 수위자료뿐만 아니라 유량측정성과도 미비하여 단위도 유도를 하지 못하였다. 또한 유역면적 500$\textrm{km}^2$ 이하에서는 홍수위 자료는 있어도 유량측정성과가 없는 지점이 많았고 육량측정성과가 수 회에 불과한 지점이 대부분이었기 때문에 단위도를 유도할 수 없었다. 따라서 분석된 결과를 소유역으로 연장하는 것은 다소 무리가 따르며 대략 어느 정도가 될 것이라는 참고자료로 이용하는 것이 바람직하다고 본다. 현재의 여건에서는 소유역의 유량측정성과를 확충하는 일이 급선무일 것이다. 유역면적이 작은 수위 관측 지점에 대한 지속적인 유량측정이 절실히 요구된다.

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Vulnerability Assessment of the Climate Change on the Water Environment of Juam Reservoir (기후변화에 따른 주암호 수환경 취약성 평가)

  • Yoon, Sung Wan;Chung, Se Woong;Park, Hyung Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.519-519
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    • 2015
  • 2007년 발간된 IPCC의 4차 평가보고서에서 자연재해, 환경, 해양, 농업, 생태계, 보건 등 다양한 부분에 미치는 기후변화의 영향에 대한 과학적 근거들이 제시되면서 기후변화는 현세기 범지구적인 화두로 대두되고 있다. 또한, 기후변화에 의한 지구 온난화는 대규모의 수문순환 과정에서의 변화들과 연관되어 담수자원은 기후변화에 대단히 취약하며 미래로 갈수록 악영향을 받을 것으로 6차 기술보고서에서 제시하고 있다. 특히 우리나라는 지구온난화가 전 지구적인 평균보다 급속하게 진행될 가능성이 높기 때문에 기후변화에 대한 담수자원 취약성이 더욱 클 것으로 예상된다. 따라서 지표수에 용수의존도가 높은 우리나라의 댐 저수지를 대상으로 기후변화에 따른 수환경 변화의 정확한 분석과 취약성 평가는 필수적이다. 본 연구에서는 SRES A1B 시나리오를 적용하여 기후변화가 주암호 저수지의 수환경 변화에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 지역스케일의 미래 기후시나리오 생산을 위해 인공신경망(Artificial Neural Network.,ANN)기법을 적용하여 예측인자(강우, 상대습도, 최고온도, 최저온도)에 대해 강우-유출모형에 적용이 가능한 지역스케일로 통계적 상세화를 수행하였으며, 이를 유역모델에 적용하여 저수지 유입부의 유출량 및 부하량을 예측하였다. 유역 모델의 결과를 토대로 저수지 운영모델에 저수지 유입부의 유출량을 적용하여 미래 기간의 방류량을 산정하였으며, 최종적으로 저수지 모델에 유입량, 유입부하량 및 방류량을 적용하여 저수지 내 오염 및 영양물질 순환 및 분포 예측을 통해서 기후변화가 저수지 수환경에 미치는 영향을 평가하였다. 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 상세기 후전망을 위해서 기후인자의 미래분석 기간은 (I)단계 구간(2011~2040년), (II)단계 구간(2041~2070년), (III) 단계 구간(2071~2100년)의 3개 구간으로 설정하여 수행하였으며, Baseline인 1991~2010년까지의 실측값과 모의 값을 비교하여 검증하였다. 강우량의 경우 Baseline 대비 미래로 갈수록 증가하는 것으로 전망되었으며, 2011년 대비 2100년에서 연강수량 6.4% 증가한 반면, 일최대강수량이 7.0% 증가하는 것으로 나타나 미래로 갈수록 집중호우의 발생가능성이 커질 것으로 예측되었다. 유역의 수문 수질변화 전망도 강수량 증가의 영향으로 주암댐으로 유입하는 총 유량이 Baseline 대비 증가 하였으며, 유사량 및 오염부하량도 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 저수지 수환경 변화 예측결과 유입량이 증가함에 따라서 연평균 체류시간이 감소하였으며, 기온 및 유입수온 상승의 영향으로 (I)단계 구간대비 미래로 갈수록 상층 및 심층의 수온이 상승하는 것으로 나타났다. 연중 수온성층기간 역시 증가하는 것으로 나타났으며, 남조류는 (I)단계 구간 대비 (III)단계 구간으로 갈수록 출현시기가 빨라지며 농도 역시 증가하였다. 또한 풍수년, 평수년에 비해 갈수년에 남조류의 연평균농도 상승폭과 최고농도가 크게 나타나 미래로 갈수록 댐 유입량이 적은 해에 남조류로 인한 피해 발생 가능성이 높아질 것으로 예상된다.

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Influences of Physical Work Environment on Job Satisfaction and Job Performance -Focusing on Personal Working, Co-Working and Amenity Space- (중소기업의 물리적 업무환경이 직무만족 및 직무성과에 미치는 영향 -개인집중업 공간, 협업 공간, 어메니티 공간을 중심으로-)

  • Ahn, Hyang-Cha;Lee, Sang-Jik
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.12
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    • pp.261-271
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    • 2021
  • This study was conducted to empirically analyze the effect of the physical work environment of SMEs on work satisfaction and work performance. For the research, the physical work environment was subdivided into Focusing on Personal Working space, co-working space, and amenity space to establish a research model. For empirical analysis, a questionnaire survey was conducted targeting small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) workers. 250 valid copies were taken for analysis. Hypotheses were tested by multiple regression using SPSS 24. The study results were as follows. Focusing on Personal working space, co-working space, and amenity space all had a significant positive (+) effect on job satisfaction of SME employees. In addition, Focusing on personal working space, co-working space had a significant positive (+) effect on job performance. Amenity space was not tested for a significant influence on job performance. The contribution of this study was to identify the causal relationship between the physical work environment and the employee's job satisfaction and job performance in the absence of studies. In future research, it is ultimately necessary to identify the relationship with the business performance of a company.

A Study on the Factors Influenced on the Performance of Korean Ventures - Focusing on International Entrepreneurship and Firm's Capabilities - (한국 벤처기업의 경영성과에 미치는 영향요인에 관한 연구 - 국제적 기업가정신과 기업역량을 중심으로 -)

  • Yoon, Ki-Chang
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.445-474
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    • 2009
  • This study tries to investigate the factors influenced on the performance by top management team's(TMT's) international entrepreneurship(IE) and firm's capabilities(marketing capability and R&D capability) of Korean Ventures. The research model and hypothesis set that TMT's IE directly affect to the performance directly affects and TMT's IE indirectly affect to the performance through the capabilities(marketing capability and R&D capability) by research prior studies. To verify research model, 115 high-technology based Korean ventures survey to be as samples by structured questionnaires and the data is tested by SEM(structural equation modeling) analysis. The results of analysis are as follow. First, there was no relationship between TMT's IE and performance. Second, the IE positively affected to firm's capabilities(marketing capability and R&D capability). Third, firm's internal capabilities positively affected to performance. These results only few TMT's IE cannot sufficiently affect to performance but IE should be propagated to marketing and R&D departments and then firm's performance can improved. This study respect to provide a meaningful implication to globalization and performance of Korean Ventures.

An Analysis of the Policy Effect on the Change of Application Standard of Floor Area Ratio for Land Covering Two or More Zoning Area - Focused on Gangnam-gu - (둘 이상의 용도지역 등에 걸치는 대지에 대한 용적률 적용기준 변경의 정책적 효과분석 - 강남구를 중심으로 -)

  • Yu, Myeong-Han;Lee, Chang-Moo
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.121-135
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    • 2018
  • The ministry of land, Infrastructure and transport has revised the "National Land Planning and Utilization Act" in 2012. As a result, the regulation of floor area ratio for land covering two or more zoning area has been changed. This study conducted an analysis of the policy effects of changes in the criteria for the application of the floor area ratio by revising the "National Land Planning and Utilization Act". Land covering two or more zoning area means a street side commercial area and street side residential area that is generally understood. This study analyzed the policy effects in Gangnam-gu which has relatively large areas of street side commercial area and street side residential area. The 468 office building transaction cases were analyzed in Gangnam-gu from 2007 to 2017. The result shows that the office building, which has received incentive for policy changes, reported a 19.08% rise in price compared to the one that did not. It means that the economic effects of change of application standard were significant. The existing policy also served as a restriction on land use by landowners, which in turn contributed to the devaluation of the asset's intrinsic value. Therefore, this study may have contributed to the rational use of land and to provide an empirical basis for the change in policy to be assessed for its intrinsic value.

A Study on the Influence of Education Service Quality of Online Dance Education on User Satisfaction, Intention to Continue Use, and Intention to Continue Study (온라인 무용교육의 교육서비스품질이 사용자만족, 지속사용의도, 학업지속의도에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Kim, Gyu-Jin;Na, Yun-Bin
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.401-410
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    • 2021
  • Since the outbreak of Corona 19, Universities and Lifelong Education Center's arts and sports classes are mainly conducted online. Unfortunately, even in dance where practical practice through face-to-face classes is important, the satisfaction of students is falling because of the limitations of online education. Therefore, it is necessary to measure the quality of education service they feel. In addition, since their academic departure is increasing, we intend to comprehensively study user satisfaction, continuous use intention, and academic continuity intention related to online education. This study confirmed the causal relationship between these 4 variables through exploratory factor analysis, reliability analysis, model fit and validity verification, and path analysis. As a result of the study, 3 out of 6 hypotheses were adopted, and the of education service quality had a positive effect on satisfaction and use in online dance education. But there was also a limit that did not affect the intention to continue the study. In order to solve fundamental problems such as academic departure, follow-up studies taking into account more diverse social variables are needed.

A Study on the Grounded Theory on Conflict Experiences of Elderly Participants in a senior Employment Promotion Program : Focused on Creating an Aged-friendly Village (노인일자리 참여 노인의 갈등 경험에 관한 근거이론 연구 : 고령친화마을 만들기를 중심으로)

  • Lim, Byung-Woo
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.61-73
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to categorize conflict resolution by exploring the conflict experiences of the elderly who participate in jobs for the elderly to create an elderly-friendly village. This study applied grounded theory, a qualitative research method, For data collection, a FGI was conducted by sampling 5 elderly job participants in ◯◯-dong, ◯◯-gu, Seoul. The data were analyzed according to the paradigm model of Strauss & Corbin(1998). As a result of the analysis, causal conditions were social, economic, psychological and physical motivations for participation and contextual conditions were economic difficulties, social disconnection, and differences in life experiences influenced the initiation of conflict. The core phenomena were conflict initiated by 'the difference between experience and role' and 'the difference in psychosocial relationship skills', and the intervention condition were the activation of interpersonal relationships through communication to resolve the conflict, social integration through the use of capabilities, It appeared as a regular social activities. The interaction strategy emerged as a strategy for resolving conflict for senior citizen jobs through education, mutual support for building trust, and successful senior-friendly village program operation. The consequences, it was found that job conflicts for the elderly were alleviated by finding one's life, activating community exchanges, increasing a sense of achievement, and growing a sense of community. In conclusion, the conflict resolution types for senior citizens were classified into educational solution type, mutual support solution type, and success experience solution type.

A Study on the Improvement Direction of Selection Evaluation Indicators for the Land Transport Technology Commercialization Support Project: Focusing on the Follow-up Project Linkage Plan (국토교통기술사업화지원사업 선정평가 지표 개선방안 연구: 후속사업 연계 방안을 중심으로)

  • Hyung-Wook Shim;Seok-Ki Cha;Seung-Hee Back
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.20 no.12
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 2022
  • The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport has also been promoting the commercialization of land transport technology to commercialize the technologies owned by small and medium-sized venture companies, and to support the transfer and commercialization of public technologies. At this point, in order to improve the investment effect of subsequent new projects and to select excellent research institutes, it is necessary to establish a valid evaluation index system suitable for the purpose of the project. The evaluation index system for subsequent new projects should be linked to the project objectives and goals of the preceding project, and should be selected in consideration of existing evaluation indicators to prevent interruption of research results. Therefore, this thesis sets the evaluation index system into multiple scenarios through hierarchical cluster analysis using the evaluation result data for each evaluation committee for small and medium venture companies participating in the land transportation technology commercialization support project, and then analyzes the structural equation model. As a result of scenario analysis, considering the measurement effect of each path representing the causal relationship between evaluation indicators and the effect of each evaluation index on evaluation items, the scenario with the highest impact on the evaluation result was selected as an improvement plan.

Comparative Study on the Quality of Life Between Senior Citizens and Disabled People (노인과 장애인의 삶의 질 비교연구)

  • Kim, Hyeong-Soo;Kim, Yong-seob
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.355-379
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to reveal the similarity and difference by comparing the quality of life between senior citizen group and disabled people group. For this purpose, I surveyed the questionnaire composed of sociological variable of population, social support, society activity participation, activity of daily living, self-efficacy, and quality of life to 113 senior citizens and 107 disabled people and analyzed the actual proof relationship of cause and effect in between variables. I executed the analysis of structural equation model by using SPSS 14.0 and AMOS 7.0 for the analysis of data. As the result of the study, firstly, the variables highly co-related with the quality of life to both senior citizen group and disabled people group were self-efficacy and society activity participation, and the variables highly co-related with self-efficacy were the quality of life and society activity participation. Secondly, the variables which show the meaningful difference between senior citizen group and disabled people group were society activity participation and activity of daily living. Thirdly, in the senior citizen group, social support, society activity participation, and activity of daily living have meaningful effect on self-efficacy, and all variables have meaningful effect on the quality of life. However, in the disabled people group, social support did not have meaningful effect on self-efficacy, and the social support and self-efficacy did not have meaningful effect on the quality of life. Based upon these study results I discussed the meaning and implications of the study, and suggested the successive study tasks.

A Study on the Effect of Traditional Market Revitalization Factors on Management Performance (전통시장 활성화 요인이 경영성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Se-Yong Kwon;Mi-Rye Kang;Hyung-Ho Kim
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.307-317
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of merchants' perceptions of service quality, youth mall creation, and traditional market revitalization on management performance to derive factors that can improve the self-sustainability of the traditional market. In particular, it was intended to predict the practical effect of the youth mall creation project by including merchants' perceptions of the rapidly emerging youth mall to revitalize the traditional market. In this study, 430 small business owners from five private traditional markets in Iksan were surveyed, the research model was verified by analyzing the technical statistics, reliability, and validity of the data collected using the SPSS 21.0 program, and the hypothesis was verified through correlation and regression analysis. Although youth malls are actively promoted at the government level to revitalize traditional markets and improve management performance, this study confirmed that the creation of youth malls in traditional markets does not directly affect traditional market revitalization and management performance, confirming that policies to create youth malls that can actually help revitalize traditional markets and improve management performance in the future need to be promoted.