• Title/Summary/Keyword: 인과관계검정

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Impact of Enterprise R&D Investment on International Trade in Korea under the new Normal Era (뉴 노멀 시대하 한국기업의 R&D투자가 무역에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Seon-Jae;Lee, Young-Hwa
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.12 no.9
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    • pp.357-368
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the impact of enterprise R&D investment on international trade in Korea under the new Normal Era. In order to test whether the time series data of trade variables are stationary or not, we put in operation unit root test and cointegration test. Based on VECM (Vector Error Correction Model), we also apply impulse response functions and variance decomposition to estimate the dynamic effects in the short-run and long-run. The results show that the relationship between enterprise R&D investment and international trade (export and import) exists in the long-run as well as in the short-run. The results of applying impulse response functions and variance decomposition also indicate that the impact of enterprise R&D investment on international trade is positive, and a significant portion of fluctuations in the trade variable is explained by enterprise R&D investment. Therefore, enterprise R&D investment must be continuously increased to improve economic growth with promoting trading competition power in Korea under the new Normal Era.

A Study on the Causal Relationship Between Shipping Freight Rates (해운 운임 간 인과관계에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon, JunWoo
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.9 no.12
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    • pp.47-53
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of the study was to utilize VECM(Vector Error Correction Model) and detect causal relationships among shipping freight rates. Shipping freight rates used in this study were BDI(Baltic Dry Index), HRCI(Howe Robinson Containership Index), WS(World Scale rate) and SCFI(Shanghai Containerized Freight Index). Using weekly data published since August 2nd, 2013 to September 6th, 2019, it was discovered that BDI and WS were heavily influenced by past week's BDI and WS respectively. VECM also found that one percent increase in WS resulted in 0.022% increase in following week's HRCI data. One percent increase in HRCI affects SCFI by 0.77% on the following week. This study believes that finding may help each shipping market of shipping freight rates estimates, thereby encouraging decision markers to exercise discretion and establish best interest decision.

A Causality Analysis on the Relationship Between National Park Visitor Use and Economic Variables (국립공원 탐방수요와 경제변수간의 인과성 분석)

  • Sim, Kyu-Won;Lee, Ju-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.99 no.4
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    • pp.573-579
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    • 2010
  • This study was carried out to investigate the relationship between visitor uses of national parks and economic variables, such as the index of industrial product and the consumer price index. The results from the Granger Causality test showed that the index of industrial product and the consumer price index influenced visitor use at national parks. Also the Impulse Response Analysis showed that the index of industrial product and the consumer price index greatly influenced national park visitor use in the short term as well as the long term. The study showed that national park visitor use was mainly influenced by variance decompositions. These results suggested that economic variables could be used to not only forecast the demand for recreation but also establish recreational policies.

A Study on the Impact of Hotel Internal Marketing Practices on Culinary Staff Job Satisfaction and Organizational Commitment (호텔기업 내부마케팅활동이 조리종사원들의 직무만족과 조직몰입에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn, Sung-Bin;Lee, Jong-Ho
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.60-74
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    • 2015
  • This study seeks to determine causal relationships between hotel internal marketing practices and job satisfaction, and ultimately on organizational commitment, to contribute information enabling hotel management to better understand employees working in hotel culinary departments. SPSS 18.0 and AMOS 18.0 were employed for the statistical analysis (e.g. frequency statistics, exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, reliability analysis, and structure equation model). Results revealed that the formulated model showed proper model fit (${\chi}^2=227.154$(df=179), p-value=0.009, CMIN/DF=1.269, RMR=0.013, GFI=0.931, AGFI=0.911, NFI=0.906, CFI=0.978, RMSEA=0.031), and confirmed construct reliability and convergent validity. Three factors (benefit package, educational training, work autonomy) were extracted based on the results of the factor analyses. Specifically, benefit package and work autonomy exhibited an effect on job satisfaction with benefit package asthe most significant factor (t-value 3.311, p<0.001), partially supporting the first hypothesis of this study. In addition, job satisfaction has found to have a positive influence in organizational commitment, confirming the second hypothesis of this study.

The Effect of Purchasing Factors of Environment-Friendly Agricultural Products on Consumer Attitude and Purchasing Intention (친환경농산물의 구매요인이 소비자태도와 구매의도에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Jong-Ho
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.204-221
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    • 2016
  • The study tested the moderating effect of 215 women living in Busan to analyze the purchase intention (awareness, health interests, environmental interests) of environment-friendly agricultural products and it's the causal relationship between consumer attitudes and purchasing intention. The results confirmed that all purchase factors for environment-friendly agricultural products had significant causality on consumer attitudes. Significant causality of consumer attitudes on purchase intention was also confirmed. The moderating effect of the number of purchases was analyzed to only significantly affect consumer attitudes on purchase intention and consumer attitudes according to number of purchases were analyzed to vary depending on the intensity of purchase. Information presented in this study means that consumers who are aware of environment-friendly agricultural products, interested in health, and interested in protecting the environment exhibit positive attitudes on environment-friendly agricultural products as well as higher purchase intentions. Therefore, if government and local organizations strengthen the promotion of environment-friendly agricultural products, there may be an acceleration of the consumption of environment-friendly agricultural products, followed by an increase in the income of farmers as well as an increase in the number of farmers who cultivate environment-friendly agricultural products. This may ultimately aid in the conservation of the natural environment of Korea and enhance the health and well-being of the public.

Liquidity-related Variables Impact on Housing Prices and Policy Implications (유동성 관련 변수가 주택가격에 미치는 영향 및 정책적 시사점에 관한 연구)

  • Chun, Haejung
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.585-600
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study related to the liquidity impact of the housing market variables using vector auto-regressive model(VAR) and empirical analysis is to derive some policy implications. October 2003 until May 2012 using monthly data for liquidity variables mortgage rates, mortgage, financial liquidity, as the composite index and nation, Seoul, Gangnam, Gangbuk, the Apartment sales prices were analyzed. Granger Causality Test Results, mortgage rates and mortgage at a bargain price two regions had a strong causal relationship. Since the impulse response analysis, Geothermal difference there, but housing price housing price itself, the most significant ongoing positive (+) reactions were liquidity-related variables are mortgage loans is large and persistent positive (+), financial liquidity weakly positive (+), mortgage interest rates are negative (-), KOSPI, the negative (-) reacted. Liquidity and housing prices that the rise can be and Gangnam in Gangbuk is greater than the factor that housing investment was confirmed empirically. Government to consider the current economic situation, while maintaining low interest rates and liquidity of the market rather than the real estate industry must ensure that activities can be embedded and local enforcement policies should be differentiated according to the policy will be able to reap significant effect.

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Interdependence of Corporate Control Mechanisms and Firm Performance in Korea (기업지배구조의 상호관계 및 기업성과에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Sungbin
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.131-177
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    • 2006
  • This paper examines a simultaneous determination of corporate control mechanisms, and its effects on firm performance. The corporate control mechanisms considered include the following; insider shareholding, institutional shareholding, the board of directors, dividend policy, and capital structure. This paper applies a simultaneous equation methodology and investigates the interdependence among the corporate control mechanisms. In the first part, the paper finds that firm-level variations of control mechanisms are large across time although average variations are relatively small. These variations are related to one another, which is confirmed by Granger causality test based on dynamic panel autoregression model. More specifically insider shareholding, institutional shareholding and outside director ratio cause each other. With regard to interdependence among the control mechanisms, 2SLS(two stage least squares) regression results show that insider shareholding and institutional shareholding are substitutes while institutional shareholding acts as complements to the ratio of outside members in the board of directors. Then in the second part, the paper examines the relationship between firm performance and corporate governance. Firm performance, measured by Tobin's Q, has a positive association with leverage ratio while that has a negative relation to outside director ratio. This suggests that there may be a room for reforming corporate governance in Korea. Specifically it is necessary to enhance the independence of the outside directors.

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Dynamic Causality and Impulse Response between Maritime Import Volume, Relative Real Effective Exchange Rate, and Regional Industrial Activity : Focusing on a Trade Port of the Jeonnam Province (해상 수입물동량, 상대적 실질실효환율, 지역경기의 동태적 인과성과 충격반응 : 전남지역의 무역항을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Chang-Beom
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.47-59
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    • 2017
  • The objective of this study is to determine the short run and long run dynamics between maritime import volume (IMV), industrial production (IP), and real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Korean Won over the REER of certain major currencies (US Dollar, Chinese Yuan, and Japanese Yen) in Korea's Jeonnam province. The Johansen and Juselius cointegration results reveal that at least one cointegration vector or long-run relationship exists. Hence, this study estimated the long run equilibrium equation, which indicates that both IP and REER are inelastic, although the former is bigger than the latter. Moreover, the dynamic causality analysis reveals short and long-run unidirectional causality from IP and REER to IMV in all three models. Further, in all the models, the results indicate short run unidirectional causality from REER to IP. In addition, the impulse response (IR) results show that the impulse of IP and REER decayed after four months. Additionally, the IR analysis results indicate that the REER of the Korean Won over the REER of Japanese Yen is the biggest with respect to the impact of relative REER on IP, which is the proxy variable of regional real income. Thus, empirical results indicated that real income and REER play an important role in determining the Jeonnam's maritime import demand behavior in the short run and long run. More importantly, substantial actions reducing unexpected fluctuation of the REER and real income based on micro and macro economic policies will increase the imported volume in the ports of the Jeonnam province.

Effects of Investors' Sentiment on Commodity Futures Prices (투자자 심리가 상품선물가격에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Hyun-Bok;Park, Cheol-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.8 no.11
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    • pp.383-391
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    • 2017
  • This study examines the relationship between sentiment of speculators and price movements in the futures markets of WTI crude oil, copper, and wheat during the period 2003~2014 using Granger causality tests. The results indicate that speculative positions overall has no predictive power for returns in each futures market. Rather, returns seem to have effects on speculators' sentiment especially during periods of both economic expansion and recovery. During a recession, meanwhile, changes of speculators' sentiment index in the WTI crude oil and copper markets provide predictive power for returns in a positive direction, suggesting that speculators' pessimistic sentiment aggravates declines in commodity prices. Since the effects of speculative positions on market prices are ambiguous, tight regulations on speculative trading are not advisable. In a bearish market, however, regulatory bodies should consider raising speculative position limits because large speculative short positions and (or) liquidation of index traders' long positions may lead steep price declines.

Regional Patterns of Farmland Price Changes for the Farmland Reverse Mortgage System (농지연금 도입에 따른 지역별 농지가격의 변동형태 분석 -경기도와 경상북도 지역을 대상으로-)

  • Lim, Dae-Bong;Cho, Deok-Ho
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.663-680
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    • 2010
  • This paper aims at analysing Regional Patterns of Farmland Price Changes for the Farmland Reverse Mortgage System. Farmland Reverse Mortgage(FRM) is a system in which the aged farmers in the rural areas receive certain amount of money monthly through the liquidation of their own farmlands for the life time. Farmland price affects the farmland annuity considerably. In the future, if the farmland price goes down than the price when the borrower joined FRM, the borrower can get profits from the pension. Based on the results, the farmland price of Kyeonggi-do is strongly related to economic growth rates(index of industrial product). while that of Gyeongsangbuk-do is weakly related to economic variables including economic growth rates. Therefore, the expectation of farmland value rising rate will be higher in Kyeonggi-do than in Gyeongsangbuk-do. Thus the number of borrowers who want to join FRM in Gyeongsangbuk-do will be more than those in Kyeonggi-do.

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