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Comparison study on the various forms of scale parameter for the nonstationary Gumbel model (비정상성 Gumbel 모형의 다양한 규모 매개변수 형태에 관한 비교 연구)

  • Jang, Hanjin;Kim, Hanbeen;Jung, Jin-Seok;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.147-147
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    • 2015
  • 전 세계적으로 이상기후로 인한 극한가뭄 및 이상홍수 등의 피해 발생이 확인되고 있으며 그 발생빈도 또한 급격히 증가하고 있다. 그러나 기존의 빈도해석은 시간의 변화에 따라 자료의 통계적 특성이 변하지 않는다는 정상성(stationarity)을 기본 가정으로 수행되기 때문에 극한 사상에 경향성이 있는 경우에 적용하기엔 한계가 있다. 비정상성 빈도해석을 위해 개발된 비정상성 확률 분포 모형들은 대부분 매개변수에 시간항을 포함하는 형태로 정의된다. 이중에서도 우리나라에 널리 사용되고 있는 Gumbel 모형에 대해 살펴보면, 비정상성 Gumbel 모형의 위치 및 규모 매개변수는 시간에 대해 선형(linear) 및 지수(exponential) 함수의 관계를 보이는 형태로 가정한다. 규모 매개변수의 지수함수의 형태는 음(-)의 값이 추정되는 것을 방지하기 위해 제안되어 널리 사용되고 있으나 이로 인해 확률수문량이 과다산정되는 문제가 발생하기도 한다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 비정상성 Gumbel 모형을 대상으로 규모 매개변수의 다양한 형태를 비교하고자 한다. 이를 위해 비정상성 Gumbel 모형 규모 매개변수를 지수함수, 선형, 로그, 로지스틱 형태로 가정하여 비교하였다. 각 모형의 매개변수의 추정은 최우도법을 적용하였으며, 규모 매개변수의 형태별 정확도 비교를 위해 모의실험을 수행하였다.

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Preliminary Research for Korean Twitter User Analysis Focusing on Extreme Heavy User's Twitter Log (국내 트위터 유저 분석을 위한 예비연구 )

  • Jung, Hye-Lan;Ji, Sook-Young;Lee, Joong-Seek
    • Journal of the HCI Society of Korea
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.37-43
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    • 2010
  • Twitter has been continuously growing since October, 2006. Especially, not only the users and the number of messages have been increasing but also a new concept in social networking called 'micro blogging' has diffused. Within Korea, service such as 'me2day' has already been introduced and the improvement of internet accessibility within mobile devices is expected to expand the 'micro blogs'. In this point, this research is executed to study the new medium, 'micro blog'. To do so, we collected and analyzed Twitter logs of Korean users. Especially, we were curious about the extreme heavy users using Twitter, despite of the linguistic and cultural barrier of the foreign service. Who they are, why and how they use the 'micro blog'. First, we reviewed the general aspect of followers and messages by collecting a certain number of random samples. Using the Lorenz curve we found out that there was the imbalance within the users and based on this phenomenon we deducted an extreme heavy user group. In order to perform further analysis, log analysis was performed on the extreme heavy users. As the result, the users used multiple mobile and desktop 'Twitter' clients. The usage pattern was similar to that of internet usage time but was used during their "micro" time. The users using 'Twitter' not only to spread messages about important information, special events and emotions, but also as a habitual 'chatting tool' to express ordinary personal chats similar to SMS and IM services. In this research, it is proved that 68% of the total messages were ordinary personal chats. Also, with 24% of the total messages were retweets, we were able to find out that virtually connected 'people' and 'relationships' acted as the dominant trigger of their articulation.

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A Study on case for making immediacy Visual Effects field - With Focus on The Load of The Ring - (시각효과(Visual Effects) 분야가 비매개화에 기여한 사례에 관한 연구 - 반지의 제왕을 중심으로 -)

  • Cho, hyun-je;Jung, min-soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.208-212
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    • 2008
  • The mediacy is now evolving with the development of mankind civilization. In the evolution, mediacy shows duplicate logic of remediacy with the opposite mediacy property between immediacy and hypermediacy. The duplicate logic of remediacy is defined as a result of hypermediacy which clearly requires transparency and absorption of immediacy. Because of changes from analog to digital age and the development of image technique, At present, the era is coming when the splendid and spectacle visual speaks for the screen not well-organized script and direction. With this developing period, the research for visual effect is actively performed and advanced to the new study. Though the study of visual effects contains the hypermediacy trait, it is also conjugated as a research field for immediacy on the screen which is the wish of content production directors. In this study, the analysis of case study for the movie "The Lord of The ring"'s visual effect application is carried out. Also, it is investigated that visual effects can guarantee for the verification of valuable new research filed which insure transparency and absorption in the hypermediacy results. Furthermore, on this study, it is executed for the contribution of the identity and systematization in the new research field "Visual Effects".

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Detection of C-Reactive Protein Using Direct-binding Quartz Crystal Microbalance Immunosensor (직접결합방식 수정진동자 면역센서에 의한 C-Reactive Protein 검출)

  • Kim, N.;Kim, D.K.;Cho, V.J.
    • KSBB Journal
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.443-446
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    • 2007
  • A prognostic indicator of coronary heart disease, C-reactive protein, was tried to be determined by a batch-type quartz crystal microbalance immunosensor. The sensor was operated by direct-binding mode and the optimum concentration for the corresponding antibody for immobilization was $50{\mu}g/ml$. The reaction buffer for the system was 0.1 M sodium phosphate (pH 7.0) and system operation was performed in the order of baseline stabilization, analyte addition and measurement, and regeneration of the sensor chip with 10 mM NaOH. When plotted in double-logarithmic scale, the sensor showed a linear detection range of 0.27-106.00 nM for rat C-reactive protein with the limit of detection of 0.53 nM. It also showed a good reusability.

Ultrastructural Changes on the Synovial Membrane of Rat Temporomandibular Joint under Mild Restraint and Cold Stresses (한냉, 중등도의 구속 스트레스시 웅성백서의 측두하악관절 윤활막의 미세구조 변화에 대한 전자현미경적 연구)

  • Ryu, Jung-Kyun;Mun, Kyung-Hwan;Chun, Yang-Hyun;Hong, Jung-Pyo
    • Journal of Oral Medicine and Pain
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.205-214
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    • 2001
  • 오늘날 스트레스라는 단어는 모든 현대인과 방송, 언론매체에서도 매일 거론되어질 정도로그 중요성이 대두되고 있다. 의학계에서도 스트레스를 단순한 심리적 문제로 국한시키지 않고 과도한 스트레스가 지속될 경우 신경계와 내분비계, 면역계의 변화를 초래해 인체의 항상성에 영향을 미쳐 질병을 일으킨다는 것을 인식하고 있으며 이에 대한 연구가 진행되고 있다. 이러한 질병의 발생과정에서 생체의 일부조직이 파괴됨으로써 기능과 형태변화가 초래될 때 apoptosis가 관여하고 있으며 이에 본 저자는 스트레스와 구강악안면영역에서 발생할 수 있는 질병과의 상관관계를 규명하기 위해 이종의 한냉 스트레스와 다소의 굴신을 허용한 중등도의 구속 스트레스를 부여한 후 측두하악관절 활막의 변화를 전자현미경관찰을 통해 밝혀내고자 한다. Sprague-Dawley계 웅성 백서(200-230 g/bw) 33마리를 구속스트레스부여군 (12마리), 한냉스트레스부여군 (12마리) 및 정상군 (3마리)으로 나누고 이들을 각각 구속장치에 구속한 후 1, 3, 5, 7일에 각각 희생시켰으며 측두하악관절 활막의 변화를 전자현미경으로 관찰하였다. 그 결과는 다음과 같다. 1. 중등도의 구속스트레스군에서 사립체는 부분적으로 농축된 소견을 보였으며 수와 크기에 있어 시간이 지남에 따라 점차 감소하는 소견을 보였다. 2. 중등도의 구속스트레스군에서 과립내형질망은 점점 확장되었으며 불규칙한 형태를 나타내었다. 3. 중등도의 구속스트레스군에서 물결모양의 핵막의 이중구조가 7일군에서 관찰되었다. 4. 한냉 스트레스군에서 사립체는 1일, 3일군에서 약간 부푼 형태를 가지고 그 수가 다소 감소되었으나 시간이 지남에 따라 5일, 7일군에서 건강한 모양으로 점차 증가되었다. 5. 한냉 스트레스군에서 과립내형질망은 1일, 3일군에서 불규칙하게 확장된 소견을 보였으나 5일, 7일군에서는 잘 발달된 형태로 핵 주위에서 다수 관찰되었다. 6. 한냉 스트레스군에서 핵은 전 기간에 걸쳐 큰 변화를 보이지 않았다. 이와 같은 결과를 토대로 측두하악관절 활막조직은 한냉 스트레스 및 중등도의 구속 스트레스에 대하여 중등도의 저항성을 가지고 있는 것으로 생각되며 생리적 적응한계를 넘는 과도하고 지속적인 스트레스에 의하여 활막조직이 apoptosis되어 측두하악관절에 병리적 변화를 초래할 가능성이 있다고 사료되어 이후 지속적인 연구가 요구된다.

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Model Test on the High Performance of the Midwater Pair Trawl Net (쌍끌이중층망의 전개성능 향상을 위한 모형실험)

  • 권병국
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.340-349
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    • 1995
  • There are several problems in a fishing by the midwater pair trawl net which is used in Denmark; steeply decreasing of the net height with the towing speed increasing, the larger volume of the fishing gear in comparison with the size of the trawler, and catching of a float in a mesh, etc. To prevent steeply decreasing of the net height with the towing speed increasing and catching of a float in a mesh, it is sometimes more useful to use the kite instead of floats. This paper describes the hydrodynamic drag and the opening efficiency of the midwater pair trawl net and the midwater kite pair trawl net obtained by the model test in the circulation water channel. The results can be summarized as follows; 1. The hydrodynamic drag of the midwater kite pair trawl net is about 0.7 times smaller than that of the midwater pair trawl net. 2. The net height, mouth area and filtering volume of the midwater kite pair trawl net are smaller then those of the midwater pair trawl net when the towing speed is below 2.5knots, almost the same at 2.7knots, and are larger over 3.0knots. The net width of the midwater kite pair trawl net is same as that of the midwater pair trawl net. 3. The shapes of net mouth of both net are an oval steeply flatted with the towing speed increasing. The filtering volume of the midwater kite pair trawl net is larger then that of the midwater pair trawl net by 3% at 3.0knots, 11% at 4.0knots, and 16% at 5.0knots respectively.

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The effect of temperature on the electricity demand: An empirical investigation (기온이 전력수요에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Hye-min;Kim, In-gyum;Park, Ki-Jun;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.167-173
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    • 2015
  • This paper attempts to estimate the electricity demand function in Korea with quarterly data of average temperature, GDP and electricity price over the period 2005-2013. We apply lagged dependent variable model and ordinary least square method as a robust approach to estimating the parameters of the electricity demand function. The results show that short-run price and income elasticities of the electricity demand are estimated to be -0.569 and 0.631, respectively. They are statistically significant at the 1% level. Moreover, long-run income and price elasticities are estimated to be 1.589 and -1.433, respectively Both of results reveal that the demand for electricity is price- and income-elastic in the long-run. The relationship between electricity consumption and temperature is supported by many of references as a U-shaped relationship, and the base temperature of electricity demand is about $15.2^{\circ}C$. It is shown that power of explanation and goodness-of-fit statistics are improved in the use of the lagged dependent variable model rather than conventional model.

Study on Variability of WTP Estimates by the Estimation Methods using Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Data (양분선택형 조건부가치측정(CV) 자료의 추정방법에 따른 지불의사금액의 변동성 연구)

  • Shin, Youngchul
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2016
  • This study investigated the variability of WTP estimates(i.e. mean or median) with ad hoc assumptions of specific parametric probability distributions(i.e. normal, logistic, lognormal, and exponential distribution) to estimate WTP function using dichotomous choice CV data on mortality risk reduction. From the perspective of policy decision, the variability of these WTP estimates are intolerable in comparison with those of Turnbull nonparametric estimation method which is free from ad hoc distribution assumptions. The Turnbull nonparametric estimation can avoid a kind of misspecification bias due to ad hoc assumption of specific parametric distributions. Furthermore, the WTP estimates by Turnbull nonparametric estimation are robust because the similar estimates are elicited from a dichotomous choice or double dichotomous choice CV data, and the statistically significant WTP estimates can be obtained even though it is not possible by parametric estimation methods. If there are considerable variability among those WTP estimates by parametric estimation methods in condition with no criteria of model adequacy, the mean WTPs from Turnbull nonparametric estimation can be the robust estimates without ad hoc assumptions, which can avoid controversial issues in the perspective of policy decisions.

An Effect of Steel Corrosion on Bond Stress-slip Relationship under Repeated Loading (반복하중하의 부착응력-슬립 관계에 미치는 철근 부식의 영향)

  • Kim, Chul-Min;Park, Jong-Bum;Chang, Sung-Pil;Kim, Jee-Sang
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.179-186
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    • 2010
  • The bond between steel and concrete in reinforced concrete members is essential to resist external load, but the bond mechanism in reinforced concrete beams deteriorated by steel corrosion has not been clearly known yet. Most existing researches have dealt with the bond behavior of corroded steel under monotonic loading, but scarce are researches dealing with bond behavior of corroded steel under repeated loading. This study includes the experimental investigation on the bond behavior with respect to the various degrees of steel corrosion under repeated loading. According to the test results, the bond strength of corroded steel under monotonic loading increases as the rate of steel corrosion increases unless the splitting crack occurs. The slip versus number of load cycles relation was found to be approximately linear in double logarithmic scale, not only in specimens without steel corrosion but also in specimens with steel corrosion. The test results also show that the steel corrosion does not negatively affect the bond strength of corroded steel after repeated loading unless the splitting crack occurs. But the fatigue life decreases sharply after splitting crack occurs. This research will be helpful for the realistic durability design and condition assessment of reinforced concrete structures.

Determination of Hydraulic Conductivities in the Sandy Soil Layer through Cross Correlation Analysis between Rainfall and Groundwater Level (강우-지하수위 상관성 분석을 통한 사질토층의 수리전도도 산정)

  • Park, Seunghyuk;Son, Doo Gie;Jeong, Gyo-Cheol
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.303-314
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    • 2019
  • Surface permeability and shallow geological structures play significant roles in shaping the groundwater recharge of shallow aquifers. Surface permeability can be characterized by two concepts, intrinsic permeability and hydraulic conductivity, with the latter obtained from previous near-surface geological investigations. Here we propose a hydraulic equation via the cross-correlation analysis of the rainfall-groundwater levels using a regression equation that is based on the cross-correlation between the grain size distribution curve for unconsolidated sediments and the rainfall-groundwater levels measured in the Gyeongju area, Korea, and discuss its application by comparing these results to field-based aquifer test results. The maximum cross-correlation equation between the hydraulic conductivity derived from Zunker's observation equation in a sandy alluvial aquifer and the rainfall-groundwater levels increases as a natural logarithmic function with high correlation coefficients (0.95). A 2.83% difference between the field-based aquifer test and root mean square error is observed when this regression equation is applied to the other observation wells. Therefore, rainfall-groundwater level monitoring data as well as aquifer test are very useful in estimating hydraulic conductivity.