• Title/Summary/Keyword: 이론적 구조로서의 확률

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An Empirical Study on the "Effects of My Mom's Friend's Son" in the Job Search Process of Youths (청년층 직업탐색에서의 '엄친아효과'에 대한 실증연구)

  • Bai, Jin Han
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.121-168
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    • 2014
  • After analyzing and finding the explaining factors about the "Effect of My Mom's Friend's Son (MMFS Effect)" with online-surveyed data, we introduce this concept into the conventional job search theory to develop it further. We try to estimate its effects on the hazard rate of youth pre-employment duration with some proxy variables such as his/her parents' schooling, living with parents dummy, increasing rate of consumer price index representing the burdens of parents, monthly temporary/daily workers ratio, relative ratio of quarterly 90th percentile urban household income, monthly average wage differentials between the workers of large and small firms, etc. The results confirm us the fact that so called "MMFS Effect" has been effective enough and strengthened up to recently. The conventional job search theory should be extended to be able to introduce the influencing effects of other person's success, for instance MMFS's success, on the job search behavior of youths, too.

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Modeling feature inference in causal categories (인과적 범주의 속성추론 모델링)

  • Kim, ShinWoo;Li, Hyung-Chul O.
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.329-347
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    • 2017
  • Early research into category-based feature inference reported various phenomena in human thinking including typicality, diversity, similarity effects, etc. Later research discovered that participants' prior knowledge has an extensive influence on these sorts of reasoning. The current research tested the effects of causal knowledge on feature inference and conducted modeling on the results. Participants performed feature inference for categories consisted of four features where the features were connected either in common cause or common effect structure. The results showed typicality effects along with violations of causal Markov condition in common cause structure and causal discounting in common effect structure. To model the results, it was assumed that participants perform feature inference based on the difference between the probabilities of an exemplar with the target feature and an exemplar without the target feature (that is, $p(E_{F(X)}{\mid}Cat)-p(E_{F({\sim}X)}{\mid}Cat)$). Exemplar probabilities were computed based on causal model theory (Rehder, 2003) and applied to inference for target features. The results showed that the model predicts not only typicality effects but also violations of causal Markov condition and causal discounting observed in participants' data.

Evaluation of Response Variability of Functionally Graded Material Beam with Varying Sectional Area due to Spatial Randomness in Elastic Modulus along Axial Direction (기능경사재료 변단면 보에서 축방향 탄성계수의 공간적 불확실성에 의한 응답변화도 평가)

  • Noh, Hyuk Chun
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.199-206
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, a scheme to evaluate the response variability for functionally graded material (FGM) beam with varying sectional area is presented. The randomness is assumed to appear in a spatial domain along the beam axis in the elastic modulus. The functionally graded material categorized as composite materials, however without the drawbacks of delamination and occurrence of cracks due to abrupt change in material properties between layers in the conventional composite materials. The functionally graded material is produced by the gradual solidification through thickness direction, which endows continuous variation of material properties, which makes this material performs in a smooth way. However, due to difficulties in tailoring the gradients, to have uncertainty in material properties is unavoidable. The elastic modulus at the center section is assumed to be random in the spatial domain along the beam axis. Introducing random variables, defined in terms of stochastic integration, the first and second moments of responses are evaluated. The proposed scheme is verified by using the Monte Carlo simulation based on the random samples generated employing the spectral representation scheme. The response variability as a function of correlation distance, the effects of material and geometrical parameters on the response variability are investigated in detail. The efficiency of the proposed scheme is also addressed by comparing the analysis time of the proposed scheme and MCS.

Automatic Composition Algorithm based on Fractal Tree (프랙탈 트리를 이용한 자동 작곡 방법)

  • Kwak, Sung-Ho;Yoo, Min-Joon;Lee, In-Kwon
    • 한국HCI학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.02a
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    • pp.618-622
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we suggest new music composition algorithm based on fractal theory. User can define and control fractal shape by setting an initial state and production rules in L-System. We generate an asymmetric fractal tree based on L-System and probability. Then a music is generated by the fractal tree image using sonification techniques. We introduce two composition algorithm using the fractal tree. First, monophonic music can be generated by mapping x and y axis to velocity and pitch, respectively Second, harmonic music also can be generated by mapping x and y axis to time and pitch, respectively Using our composition algorithm, user can easily generate a music which has repeated pattern created by recursive feature of fractal, and a music which has structure similar to fractal tree image.

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A Study on the Organizational Conflict and Job Withdrawal Intention of the Information Security Workers (정보보안 종사자의 조직갈등과 직무이탈 의도에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Geunhye;Park, Kyudong;Shim, Mina
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.451-463
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the effects of organizational conflict stages and job withdrawal intention of information security organizations. We applied Pondy's conflict theory and analyzed the case of information security workers in public enterprises. We found that the more information security workers emotionally accept the potential factors of organizational conflict, the higher the intention of job change of information security practitioner. On the other hand, the perception mechanism has a moderating effect of lowering the job change-out probability. The result of this study is expected that the manager of the organization will be able to utilize the conflict in the organizational direction.

Analyzing Chemical Reaction Routes of Explosion by a Mixed Acid - Focusing on Chemical Carriers - (혼산에 의한 폭발사고의 화학반응 경로 분석 - 화학물질 운반 선박을 중심으로 -)

  • Kang, Yu Mi;Yim, Jeong-Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.661-668
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the chemical reaction pathway for explosion accident of mixed cargo. The analysis used a structural scenario using event-tree analysis. Structural scenarios were constructed by estimating various chemical reaction paths in the content of the mixed cargo accident recorded in the written verdict. The analytical method was applied to three kinds of analysis: chemical analysis based on chemical theory, quantitative analysis using chemical reaction formula, and probabilistic analysis through questionnaire. As a result of analysis, the main pathway of the accident occurred in three ways: the path of explosion due to the reaction of concentrated sulfuric acid with water, the path of explosion due to the reaction of metal and mixed acid, and the path of explosion by synthesizing with special substances. This result is similar to the path recorded in the validation, and it leads to thar the proposed path analysis method is valid. The proposed method is expected to be applicable to chemical reaction path estimation of various chemical accidents.

Performance Analysis of the WDM Protocol for the Multicast Traffics (멀티캐스트 트래픽 처리를 위한 WDM 프로토콜의 성능분석)

  • 정길현;이정규
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.26 no.11C
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    • pp.64-74
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    • 2001
  • In this paper, a dynamic minislot reservation protocol(DMRP) is proposed and analyzed to improve the performance of the multicast traffic processing in wavelength division multiplexing(WDM) networks. For the proposed protocol analysis, the WDM network architecture with a passive star coupler is used. One pair of transceiver is used for a control channel and the ocher pair of transceiver with one fixed transmitter and one tunable receiver are used for data transmission. In this protocol. the packets which fail to have successful transmission in the present time slot due to data channel and destination collisions, have priority to have successful reservation in the contention-less minislots of the next time slot. Therefore, protocols have improved the throughput and the system delay performance caused by the reduced probabilities of control channel contentions and destination collisions probability. Today, the efficient protocol that can handle the various types of data traffic is needed. As results, the DMRP is useful to improve the performance of throughput and system delay characteristics regardless of the kinds of traffic.

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A Simple Open Loop Transmit Diversity Scheme for Rician Fading Channels (라이시안 페이딩 채널을 위한 단순한 형태의 개방루프 전송 다이버시티 기법)

  • 김학성;이원철;신요안
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.27 no.7B
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    • pp.695-705
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    • 2002
  • In this paper, we propose a simple open loop transmit diversity (TD) scheme for the wideband code division multiple access (W-CDMA) systems in Rician multipath fading channels such as rural area or satellite channels where line-of-sight (LOS) paths are in presence. The proposed scheme does not require any pre-processing of transmit data, resulting in simpler structure as compared to conventional closed loop transmit adaptive array (TxAA) and open loop space-time transmit diversity (STTD). We analytically derive the probability density function of signal-to-noise ratio at the Rake receiver output and the uncoded bit error rate performance of the proposed scheme. Extensive simulation is Performed to verify the analytical performance of the proposed scheme under typical Rician multipath fading channel environments. Moreover, comparative results with the conventional TxAA and STTD are also provided. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme shows slightly better performance than the conventional open loop STTD under the channels with very weak LOS components, however, it significantly outperforms the STTD under the channels with dominant LOS components, and achieves a close performance of ideal closed loop TxAA.

Evaluation of Drought Events Using the Rectangular Pulses Poisson Process Model (구형펄스모형을 이용한 가뭄사상의 평가)

  • Yoo, Chul-Sang;Kim, Dae-Ha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.4 s.165
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    • pp.373-382
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    • 2006
  • In this study a theoretical drought severity-duration-frequency analysis is performed based on a simple Rectangular Pulses Poisson Process Model(RPPM). Data set with various durations are prepared for a given truncation level, whose statistics are then derived to be used for parameter estimation. These parameters are then used for the theoretical drought severity-duration-frequency analysis. The analysis is considered for two cases; one is to consider the overlap probability and the other is not. The drought severity of considering the overlap probability increases more as the return period increases. However, the overlap probability itself decreases as the duration increases, which is because the occurrence probability of events decreases as the duration increases. Also, if the duration increases, the events rarely or even not occur, since parameters of the model cannot be estimated in those cases, so the drought severity may not be computed. This is an obvious limitation of the simple RPPM. In this study the return periods of the important drought events occurred in Seoul are estimated using the results of the study. If the return period of an event is assumed to be the longest one among those with various durations, the return periods of some important event in Seoul are estimated to be between 14 and 35 years. These return periods are not so long to indicate that these droughts can occur frequently.

Performance Analysis of the Multi Preambles Using Gold Codes in a WBAN System (WBAN 시스템에서 골드 코드를 이용한 다중 프리앰블의 성능 분석)

  • Oh, Jun-Seok;Ryu, Seung-Moon;Eun, Chang-Soo
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.47 no.8
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    • pp.32-41
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    • 2010
  • We propose the use of multi-preambles using Gold codes and analyze its performance. The multi-preamble is a way of utilizing different codes for preambles according to operation modes or applications in a system. The receiver can be easily implemented using the maximum likelihood algorithm. The performance is robust against noise due to the good correlation characteristic of the Gold codes. We use 128-bit-long multi-preambles generated by 127 bit Gold codes in deriving the detection error probability and in verifying the validity through computer simulation. The results show that the theory and the experiment are in good agreement within the approximation error.