• Title/Summary/Keyword: 음이항 회귀 분석

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Traffic Accident Models of Cheongju Four-Legged Signalized Intersections by Accident Type (사고유형에 따른 청주시 4지 신호교차로 교통사고모형)

  • Park, Byung-Ho;Han, Sang-Wook;Kim, Tae-Young;Kim, Won-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.153-162
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    • 2008
  • This study deals with the traffic accidents at the 4-legged signalized intersections in Cheong-ju. The purpose is to comparatively analyze the characteristics and models by the accident type using the data of 143 intersections. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular emphasis to modeling such the accidents as head on collision, rear end collision, side swipe, side right angle collision, and others. The main results are the followings. First, the overdispersion tests show that the negative binomial regression models are appropriate to the traffic accident data in the above contexts. Second, five accident models are developed, which are all analyzed to be statistically significant. Finally, the models are comparatively evaluated using the common variable(ADT) and type-specific variables.

A new sample selection model for overdispersed count data (과대산포 가산자료의 새로운 표본선택모형)

  • Jo, Sung Eun;Zhao, Jun;Kim, Hyoung-Moon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.733-749
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    • 2018
  • Sample selection arises as a result of the partial observability of the outcome of interest in a study. Heckman introduced a sample selection model to analyze such data and proposed a full maximum likelihood estimation method under the assumption of normality. Recently sample selection models for binomial and Poisson response variables have been proposed. Based on the theory of symmetry-modulated distribution, we extend these to a model for overdispersed count data. This type of data with no sample selection is often modeled using negative binomial distribution. Hence we propose a sample selection model for overdispersed count data using the negative binomial distribution. A real data application is employed. Simulation studies reveal that our estimation method based on profile log-likelihood is stable.

A Study for Development of Expressway Traffic Accident Prediction Model Using Deep Learning (딥 러닝을 이용한 고속도로 교통사고 건수 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Rye, Jong-Deug;Park, Sangmin;Park, Sungho;Kwon, Cheolwoo;Yun, Ilsoo
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.14-25
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    • 2018
  • In recent years, it has become technically easier to explain factors related with traffic accidents in the Big Data era. Therefore, it is necessary to apply the latest analysis techniques to analyze the traffic accident data and to seek for new findings. The purpose of this study is to compare the predictive performance of the negative binomial regression model and the deep learning method developed in this study to predict the frequency of traffic accidents in expressways. As a result, the MOEs of the deep learning model are somewhat superior to those of the negative binomial regression model in terms of prediction performance. However, using a deep learning model could increase the predictive reliability. However, it is easy to add other independent variables when using deep learning, and it can be expected to increase the predictive reliability even if the model structure is changed.

Bayesian Analysis for the Zero-inflated Regression Models (영과잉 회귀모형에 대한 베이지안 분석)

  • Jang, Hak-Jin;Kang, Yun-Hee;Lee, S.;Kim, Seong-W.
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.603-613
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    • 2008
  • We often encounter the situation that discrete count data have a large portion of zeros. In this case, it is not appropriate to analyze the data based on standard regression models such as the poisson or negative binomial regression models. In this article, we consider Bayesian analysis for two commonly used models. They are zero-inflated poisson and negative binomial regression models. We use the Bayes factor as a model selection tool and computation is proceeded via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Crash count data are analyzed to support theoretical results.

The Effects of Collaborative R&D Activity on Product and Process Innovation: A Negative Binomial Modeling Approach (기업의 공동연구개발활동이 제품혁신 및 공정혁신에 미치는 영향 - 음이항회귀모형을 활용하여 -)

  • Kim, Chanyong;Choi, Ye Seul;Lim, Up
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.107-128
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    • 2015
  • Technology innovation is a competitive weapon of sustainable economic growth at the urban and regional level and the growth of firms. In this study, we empirically investigate the effects of collaborative R&D activity on product innovative outputs and process innovative outputs in manufacturing firms in Korea. We analyze the links between collaborative R&D activity and two types of innovative outputs using an alternative negative binomial regression model. The major finding is that collaborative R&D activity has significant positive effects on both product and process innovation. The results also identify a positive link between all types of innovative outputs and other R&D activities including internal R&D activity, patent activity, external technology and capital goods acquisitions. To induce corporate growth that enhances the productivity of individual firms and produces prolonged economic growth, policy makers should place greater emphasis on creating effective arrangements to promote establishing collaborative R&D strategies for manufacturing firms.

A Study of Accident Models for Highway Interchange Ramps (고속도로 연결로의 교통사고 추정모형 연구)

  • Roh, Chang-Gyun;Park, Chong-Seo;Son, Bong-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.29-40
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    • 2008
  • Although a good understanding of the relationship between highway traffic accidents and highway geometric features is fundamental in highway design and safety, the relationship is not well understood quantitatively. The overall goal of this paper is to formulate a reliable statistical model fitting to historical highway accident data. The model can be used to estimate the effect of road design elements on safety for the practical purposes of highway design applications. En route to achieving this goal, a number of specific research objectives were accomplished: investigate the major design elements affecting highway safety; review the existing modeling approaches in order to assess the relationship between safety and highway design features; and formulate a statistical model fitting to the accident data in order to estimate the interchange ramp junction accident frequency of rural highways.

Analysis of Accident Characteristics and Development of Accident Models in the Signalized Intersections of Cheongju and Cheongwon (지방부 신호교차로 사고특성분석 및 모형개발 (청주.청원을 중심으로))

  • Park, Byung-Ho;Yoo, Doo-Seon;Yang, Jeong-Mo;Lee, Young-Min
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.35-46
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    • 2008
  • The purposes of this study are to analyze the characteristics and to develop the models of traffic accidents. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to developing the models(multiple linear, poisson and negative binomial regression) using the data of Cheongju and Cheongwon signalized intersections. The main results analyzed are as follows. First, the accident characteristics of rural area were defined by factor. Second, 4 accident models which are all statistically significant were developed. Finally, such the variables as $X_2$ and $X_{11}$ were evaluated to be specific variables which reflect the characteristics of rural area.

Accident Models of Circular Intersections by Type in Korea (사고유형에 따른 원형교차로 사고모형)

  • Han, Su-San;Kim, Kyung-Hwan;Park, Byung-Ho
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.103-110
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    • 2011
  • This study deals with the traffic accidents by type. The objectives are to analyze the characteristics of 2 accident types, and to develop the models by type. In pursuing the above, this paper gives particular attentions to testing the differences between by type two groups, and developing the models (Poisson and negative binomial regressions) using the data of domestic circular intersections. The main results are as follows. First, the number of accidents in vehicle vehicle was analyzed to account for about 73.41% of total and to be higher than vehicle people. Second, two Poisson models and two negative binomial models which were all statistically significant were developed using vehicle people accidents and vehicle vehicle accidents as dependant variables. Finally, the traffic volume as common variable was selected in the models, and right-turn slip lane, speed hump, the number of driveways, the number of pedestrian crossings as specific variables of the models were selected.

Analysis of Bus Accidents Influential Factors on Bus Exclusive Lane in Seoul (Bus Median Lane and Bus Curb Lane Defined) (서울시 버스전용차로구간의 버스사고 영향요인 분석 연구 (중앙전용차로 및 가로변전용차로 구분))

  • Lim, Jun-Beom;Hong, Ji-Yeon;Chang, Il-Jun;Park, Jun-Tae
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.145-155
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    • 2012
  • At present, Seoul City is putting the bus exclusive lane system into practice according to mass transit revitalization policy. Starting with the installation of roadside bus exclusive lane in the past, at present, even the road sections for central- lane bus exclusive lane system are on the increase. The purpose of this research is to analyze the factors giving impacts on bus accident on central bus exclusive lane and roadside bus exclusive lane. In case of the central bus exclusive lane, the 6 variables, such as the number of bus routes, number of access & entrance to central lanes patterns, whether the stop line of central lanes retreats or not, separated distance between the stop line of central lanes and crosswalks, traffic volume, and number of bus routes stopping at bus stops on reversible lanes, were found to have a significant influence on bus accidents. In case of roadside bus exclusive lane sections, the four variables such as the number of right-turn bus routes, whether to be chronic illegal parking & stopping, time for the walk signal, and forms of land use, etc. were found to have a significant influence on bus accident.

The Study of Relationship among Organizational Justice, Coworker Trust and Knowledge Sharing: Focusing on Government-funded Research Institute (조직공정성, 동료신뢰와 지식공유 간의 관계에 관한 연구 - 정부출연 연구기관을 중심으로)

  • Moon, Sung-Ok
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.194-205
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    • 2021
  • This study examines the relationship between organizational justice and coworker trust, and reveals that coworker trust can increase knowledge sharing. A survey was conducted on government funded research institutes located in Daejeon and Sejong regions, and finally, a questionnaire of 255 valid people was used for statistical analysis. To test the hypotheses, correlation analysis, regression analysis, and negative binomial regression analysis were used. As a result of the analysis, both distributive justice and procedural justice were found to have a positive effect on coworker trust, and coworker trust also have a positive effect on knowledge sharing. This study provides implications that organizational justice affects trust in coworkers, and as a result, knowledge sharing can be increased through coworker trust.