• School Mathematics
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.315-335
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• 2013

Probability has distinctive characteristics which are different from other areas of school mathematics. The critical change can be noticed in the domain, 'probability and statistics' of 2009 revised national curriculum for elementary school mathematics. This indicates that the concept of chance is supposed to be taught in the 5~6 grade band instead of the definition of probability which is moved to the middle school level. The purpose of this study is to seek desirable methods for teaching the concept of chance which reflect the achievement criteria and the attention point for teaching and learning of the curriculum at the point of time when textbooks haven't yet been developed. To do this, based on theoretical considerations and comparative analysis of the curricula in the longitudinal - latitudinal dimensions respectively, the validity of the latest curriculum change was confirmed and several learning activities were devised. And then two lessons were planned for applying these activities to eight fifth graders and were implemented along the plan. As a result, the relevance of the learning activities was examined and students' difficulties in learning the concept of chance with educational implications were discussed.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.258-265
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• 2015

Over the last 20 years, freak waves have attracted many researchers because of their unexpected behaviors and damages on offshore structures and vessels in the ocean and coastal waters. Despite many researches on the causes, mechanisms and occurrence of freak waves, we have not reached consensus on the results of the researches. This paper presents the occurrence probability of freak waves based on the analysis of wave records measured at coastal waters of Donghae harbor in the East Sea. Three freak waves were found which satisfied conditions of m and $H_S{\geq}2.5m$ and $H_m/H_S{\geq}2$. The occurrence probabilities of freak waves were estimated from extreme distributions by Mori, Rayleigh and Ahn, and found to be on the orders of O($10^{-1}$), O($10^{-2}$), and O($10^{-3}$), respectively. The occurrence probabilities of freak waves measured from waves records were estimated between O($10^{-2}$) and O($10^{-3}$), which were located between predictions by Rayleigh and Ahn's extreme probability distributions. However, we need more analysis of wave records obtained from diverse field conditions in order to verify the accuracy of the estimation of occurrence probability of freak waves.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.57-65
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• 2019

If aging apartments are left unimproved through remodeling, the city will be eventually slum. As the government recognizes remodeling as an alternative to reconstruction, the law has been revised mainly to increase the housing area, increase the number of house and allow the vertical extension for making remodeling costs. However, the remodeling is still not activated yet in the market. Therefore, this study analyzes the decision factors of apartment remodeling in Seoul metropolitan area based on Heckman two-stage analysis considering sampling error. Research findings indicate that the decision for remodeling is determined by the characteristics of the household, housing, and time-lapse variables. And also the number of household members, net assets, housing satisfaction, the 11-20, 21-30, and more than 30 years of building are identified as the significant variables as a result of remodeling choice probability analysis. It is noteworthy that the significant variables from then remodeling cost analysis are net assets, area, more than 30 years of building, and unit housing price. It is also notable that the policy, which extend the housing area to cover remodeling cost, are not actually effective to activate the remodeling, and the age in the case of elderly people in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do who are expected to have high net assets and income is not significant variables. This study is expected to provide more objective and reliable implication to the policy makers, the home owner and the investors on the decision making process related to the remodeling project.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-126
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• 2000

In this study I am concerned with the impact of training for the unemployed on reemployment in Korea. The data is based on the survey that was conducted on those who participated in training programs in 1998 and those who did not. The matching criteria was the length of the spell of nonemployment that preceded entry to training programs. This data design allows to apply the quasi-experimental evaluation method. My estimation results indicate that the participation in training raises the hazard rate into reemployment, but training characteristics such as training contents, agencies do not affect the hazard rate significantly. This results imply that training participation increases reemployment possibility by preventing withdrawal of participants from the labor market, but training programs make little contribution to improving skills.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.15 no.11
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• pp.107-112
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• 2017

This paper performed an experimental study to test the validity of the prospect theory proposed by Tversky and Kahneman as an alternative to the expected utility theory. 115 college students attended the hypothetical games to choose one of two lotteries, one is safe option while the other one is risky. The risky options were set up to have low, medium or high probability of payoffs or losses. The amount of payoffs and losses of the lotteries was either large or small. Maximum likelihood estimation of the hypothetical games have shown that in case of high probability of positive payoffs the respondents were risk averse and when the probability of positive payoffs were small the respondents were risk loving. when the possibility of loss is high they were risk loving, while the probability is of loss is low the respondents were found to be risk averse. When the probability of risky options were medium the results were significant statistically in case of only losses. The amount of positive payoff or losses does not affect the results. Overall the results of this experiments support the prospect theory more than those of Laury & Holts (2008).

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.1099-1107
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• 2017

In this study, we analyzed the determinants of wages of college graduates by using the data of "2014 Graduates Occupational Mobility Survey" conducted by Korea Employment Information Service. In general, wages contain two complex pieces of information about whether an individual is employed and the size of the wage. However, in many previous researches on wage determinants, sample selection bias tends to be generated by performing linear regression analysis using only information on wage size. We used the Heckman sample selection models for analysis to overcome this problem. The main results are summarized as follows. First, the validity of the Heckman's sample selection model is statistically significant. Male is significantly higher in both job probability and wage than female. As age increases and parents' income increases, both the probability of employment and the size of wages are higher. Finally, as the university satisfaction increases and the number of certifications acquired increased, both the probability of employment and the wage tends to increase.

• Korean Journal of Microbiology
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.263-267
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• 2011

Genomic fingerprinting methods are useful in determining relatedness among bacterial strains. However, random coincidences in sizes of two DNA fragments in two different fingerprints may occur, resulting in erroneous interpretation of relatedness between two bacterial genomes. In this study, I estimated the probability of occurrence of DNA bands of identical size in fingerprints of two unrelated genomes, so that the significance of fingerprint-based estimation of genome relatedness could be analyzed. The probability could be estimated as outputs of a function formulated with the three parameters: the numbers of observed fragments, all possible sizes of fragments and observed fragments common in a given pair of fingerprints. The parameter most instrumental to significance of relatedness estimation was the number of all possible sizes of fragments. To keep the number of coincidentally-common size of fragments below 10, about 200 fragments should be distinguishable in the fingerprints.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.159-172
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• 2017

In a typical trend-cycle decomposition of GDP, the trend component is usually assumed to follow a random walk process. This paper considers an ARIMA trend and assesses the validity of the ARIMA trend model. I construct univariate and bivariate unobserved-components(UC) models, allowing the ARIMA trend. Estimation results using U.S. data are favorable to the ARIMA trend models. I, also, compare the forecasting performance of the UC models. Dynamic pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting exercises are implemented with recursive estimations. I find that the bivariate model outperforms the univariate model, the smoothed estimates of trend and cycle components deliver smaller forecasting errors compared to the filtered estimates, and, most importantly, allowing for the ARIMA trend can lead to statistically significant gains in forecast accuracy, providing support for the ARIMA trend model. It is worthy of notice that trend shocks play the main source of the output fluctuation if the ARIMA trend is allowed in the UC model.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.138-145
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• 2011

In this paper time series wave data are simulated by the Monte Calo method using random numbers to generate random phases of the wave signal. The simulated wave signasl are used to study the characteristics of freak waves. Various sea states are represented by combinations of the significant wave height $H_s$ defined in the spectrum method and the significant wave steepness $S_s$. For a fixed value of $S_s$, the probability of the occurrence of the freak wave is decreased as $H_s$ increases. For a fixed value of $H_s$ the probability of the occurrence of the freak wave increases as $S_s$ increases. The average value of the maximum wave height increase as $S_s$ increases, but the average height of freak wave remains the same and the value approaches two times of $H_s$. For the fixed value of $S_s$, average kurtosis of wave elevation increases as $H_s$ increases, but for a fixed $H_s$, the average kurtosis decreases as $S_s$ increases. The average of abnormality index(AI) is around 2.11 irregardless of $H_s$ and $S_s$. The maximum value of AI lies between 2.5 - 3.0. Therefore it is conjectured that AI maximum due to linear focusing is 3.0.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.13-23
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• 2022

In this study, from January 2015 to April 2020, we propose a stochastic volatility model to capture the leverage effect on daily freight yields in the dry cargo market and analyze the freight yields. Estimation involving the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for the leverage effect based on the negative correlation that exists between returns and volatility in stochastic volatility analysis yields similar estimates, and the statistcs indicates significant. That is, the results of the empirical analysis show that the degree of correlation between returns and volatility, and the magnitude and sign of fluctuations differ, which suggests that taking into account the leverage effect in the SV model improves the goodness of fit of the estimates. In addition to the statistical significance of the estimated model's leverage effect, the analysis by log predictive power score presents the estimated results with improved predictive power of the model considering the leveraged effect. These astatistically significant empirical results show that the stochastic volatility model considering the leverage effect is important for freight rate risk modeling in the marine industry.