Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회논문집)

Korea Institute of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회)
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A Study on Determinants for Apartment Remodeling in Seoul Metropolitan Area

아파트 리모델링을 위한 의사결정 요인에 관한 연구 - 서울 및 경기 수도권을 중심으로 -

  • Cho, Yongkyung (Research Institute of Real Estate and Urban Studies) ;
  • Lee, Jaewon (Department of Real Estate Studies, Konkuk University) ;
  • Lee, Sangyoub (Department of Real Estate Studies, Konkuk University)
  • Received : 2019.08.20
  • Accepted : 2019.09.16
  • Published : 2019.11.30
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Abstract

If aging apartments are left unimproved through remodeling, the city will be eventually slum. As the government recognizes remodeling as an alternative to reconstruction, the law has been revised mainly to increase the housing area, increase the number of house and allow the vertical extension for making remodeling costs. However, the remodeling is still not activated yet in the market. Therefore, this study analyzes the decision factors of apartment remodeling in Seoul metropolitan area based on Heckman two-stage analysis considering sampling error. Research findings indicate that the decision for remodeling is determined by the characteristics of the household, housing, and time-lapse variables. And also the number of household members, net assets, housing satisfaction, the 11-20, 21-30, and more than 30 years of building are identified as the significant variables as a result of remodeling choice probability analysis. It is noteworthy that the significant variables from then remodeling cost analysis are net assets, area, more than 30 years of building, and unit housing price. It is also notable that the policy, which extend the housing area to cover remodeling cost, are not actually effective to activate the remodeling, and the age in the case of elderly people in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do who are expected to have high net assets and income is not significant variables. This study is expected to provide more objective and reliable implication to the policy makers, the home owner and the investors on the decision making process related to the remodeling project.

재건축을 통한 도시주거환경의 개선이 용이하지 않은 시점에 노후아파트가 리모델링을 통해 개선되지 못하고 방치된다면 결국 도시는 쇠퇴하고 슬럼화가 이루어진다. 이에 정부는 리모델링을 활성화하기 위해 재건축의 대안으로서 인식하여 주로 면적증가나, 리모델링 비용 마련을 위한 세대수 증가, 수직 증축 리모델링 허용으로 법을 개정해왔으나 리모델링은 아직도 시장에서 활성화되고 있지 못하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 수도권인 서울과 경기도의 아파트 소유 거주자들을 대상으로 리모델링 선택과 리모델링 투입비용 의사결정에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석하여 주택소유주와 투자자들에게 객관적 의사결정요인에 대한 정보를 제공하고 리모델링 활성화를 위한 정책적 효과에 시사점을 제시하고자 한다. 우선 분석 모형을 통해 가구특성, 주택특성, 시간경과 변수로 리모델링 선택 확률과 투입비용의 크기가 결정되는 것으로 정리하였다. 분석은 표본선택 오류를 고려한 Heckman 2단계 분석을 활용하였다. 1단계 리모델링 여부(선택 확률) 분석결과 유의한 설명변수는 가구원수, 순자산, 주택만족도, 건축년도(11~20년), 건축년도(21~30년), 건축년도(30년 초과)로 나타났다. 2단계 리모델링 투입 비용 분석결과 유의한 설명변수는 순자산, 면적, 건축년도(30년 초과), 단위주택가격으로 나타났다. 분결 결과를 통해 면적증가나 리모델링 비용 충당을 위한 세대수 증가, 수직 증축 허용 중심의 현행 리모델링 활성화 정책이 큰 효과가 없을 것으로 실증되었다. 더불어 연령 변수와 관련하여 고령자라 하더라도 순자산과 소득이 높을 것으로 예상되는 서울 및 경기도의 고령자의 경우에는 선행연구에서 선택확률이 낮아지고 투입비용이 줄어드는 것과 달리 리모델링 선택 확률과 투입비용 규모 결정에 유의한 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

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