• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.27 no.7
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• pp.1082-1087
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• 2021

The propeller shaft has different pattern of behaviors at each static, dynamic, and transient condition to a ship shaft system due to the effects of propeller weight and eccentric thrust, which increases the potential risk of bearing failure by causing local load variations. To prevent this, the various research of the shafting system has been conducted with the emphasis on optimizing the relative slope and oil film retention between propeller shaft and stern tube bearing at quasi-static condition, mainly with respect to the Rules for the Classification of Steel Ships. However, to guarantee a stability of the shafting system, it is necessary to consider the dynamic condition including the transient state due to the sudden change in the stern wakefield during rudder turn. In this context, this study cross-validated the ef ect of propeller shaft behavior on the stern tube bearing during port turn operation, which is a typical transient condition, by using the strain gauge method and displacement sensor for 50,000 DWT medium class tanker. And it was confirmed that the propeller eccentric thrust change showing relief the load of the stern tube bearing.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.136-143
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• 2018

Cellular automata have been applied to simulations in many fields such as astrophysics, social phenomena, fire spread, and evacuation. Using cellular automata, this study develops a model for consequence analysis of the dispersion of hazardous chemicals, which is required for risk assessments of and emergency responses for frequent chemical accidents. Unlike in cases of detailed plant safety design, real-time accident responses require fast and iterative calculations to reduce the uncertainty of the distribution of damage within the affected area. EPA ALOHA and KORA of National Institute of Chemical Safety have been popular choices for these analyses. However, this study proposes an initiative to supplement the model and code continuously and is different in its development of free software, specialized for small and medium enterprises. Compared to the full-scale computational fluid dynamics (CFD), which requires large amounts of computation time, the relative accuracy loss is compromised, and the convenience of the general user is improved. Using Python open-source libraries as well as meteorological information linkage, it is made possible to expand and update the functions continuously. Users can easily obtain the results by simply inputting the layout of the plant and the materials used. Accuracy is verified against full-scale CFD simulations, and it will be distributed as open source software, supporting GPU-accelerated computing for fast computation.

• KOREAN JOURNAL OF PACKAGING SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.149-158
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• 2021

Advances in food packaging play an important role in keeping food manufacturing and food supply safe. Food packaging facilitates the storage, handling, transportation and preservation of food, and also contributes to the minimization of food waste. On the other hand, food packaging materials have high production volumes, short usage times, and accelerate the occurrence of environmental problems related to waste. The circular economy has already been introduced to pursue sustainability through resource conservation and recycling, and to reduce waste and carbon emissions. By activating an eco-friendly economic system that minimizes resource depletion and environmental pollution, reducing, reusing, recycling and redesigning the goals of the circular economy will reduce the impact of food packaging on the environment. This review focused on the safety aspects of recycled food packaging as recycling is currently considered an important means of packaging waste management. Assessing the safety of recycled packaging is very important because recycling can increase the levels of potentially hazardous chemicals in packaging and in the food after they are migrated. Various food packaging materials such as plastic, paper and cardboard, aluminum, steel, and multi-material multi-layers packaging are commonly used, but only the recycling safety of plastic food packaging materials, which is the most used and has a significant increase in post-use problem, is discussed in this review.

• The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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• v.32
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• pp.7-15
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• 2020

Purpose: In modern radiotherapy technology, several methods of image guided radiation therapy (IGRT) are used to deliver accurate doses to tumor target locations and normal organs, including CBCT (Cone Beam Computed Tomography) and other devices, ExacTrac System, other than CBCT equipped with linear accelerators. In previous studies comparing the two systems, positional errors were analysed rearwards using Offline-view or evaluated only with a Yaw rotation with the X, Y, and Z axes. In this study, when using CBCT and ExacTrac to perform 6 Degree of the Freedom(DoF) Online IGRT in a treatment center with two equipment, the difference between the set-up calibration values seen in each system, the time taken for patient set-up, and the radiation usefulness of the imaging device is evaluated. Materials and Methods: In order to evaluate the difference between mobile calibrations and exposure radiation dose, the glass dosimetry and Rando Phantom were used for 11 cancer patients with head circumference from March to October 2017 in order to assess the difference between mobile calibrations and the time taken from Set-up to shortly before IGRT. CBCT and ExacTrac System were used for IGRT of all patients. An average of 10 CBCT and ExacTrac images were obtained per patient during the total treatment period, and the difference in 6D Online Automation values between the two systems was calculated within the ROI setting. In this case, the area of interest designation in the image obtained from CBCT was fixed to the same anatomical structure as the image obtained through ExacTrac. The difference in positional values for the six axes (SI, AP, LR; Rotation group: Pitch, Roll, Rtn) between the two systems, the total time taken from patient set-up to just before IGRT, and exposure dose were measured and compared respectively with the RandoPhantom. Results: the set-up error in the phantom and patient was less than 1mm in the translation group and less than 1.5° in the rotation group, and the RMS values of all axes except the Rtn value were less than 1mm and 1°. The time taken to correct the set-up error in each system was an average of 256±47.6sec for IGRT using CBCT and 84±3.5sec for ExacTrac, respectively. Radiation exposure dose by IGRT per treatment was measured at 37 times higher than ExacTrac in CBCT and ExacTrac at 2.468mGy and 0.066mGy at Oral Mucosa among the 7 measurement locations in the head and neck area. Conclusion: Through 6D online automatic positioning between the CBCT and ExacTrac systems, the set-up error was found to be less than 1mm, 1.02°, including the patient's movement (random error), as well as the systematic error of the two systems. This error range is considered to be reasonable when considering that the PTV Margin is 3mm during the head and neck IMRT treatment in the present study. However, considering the changes in target and risk organs due to changes in patient weight during the treatment period, it is considered to be appropriately used in combination with CBCT.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.11-26
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• 2013

This study examined the applicability of robust decision making (RDM) over standard decision making (SDM) by comparing each result of water supply planning under climate change uncertainties for a Korean dam case. RDM determines the rank of alternatives using the regret criterion which derives less fluctuating alternatives under the risk level regardless of scenarios. RDM and SDM methods were applied to assess hypothetic scenarios of water supply planning for the Andong dam and Imha dam basins. After generating various climate change scenarios and six assumed alternatives, the rank of alternatives was estimated by RDM and SDM respectively. As a result, the average difference in the rank of alternatives between RDM and SDM methods is 0.33~1.33 even though the same scenarios and alternatives were used to be ranked by both of RDM and SDM. This study has significance in terms of an attempt to assess a new approach to decision making for responding to climate change uncertainties in Korea. The effectiveness of RDM under more various conditions should be verified in the future.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.59-68
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• 2010

Systematic risk management is necessary in grand scaled urban construction because of the existence of complicated and various risk factors. Problems of obstructions, adjacent structures, safety, environment, traffic and geotechnical properties need to be solved because urban construction is progressed in limited space not as general earthwork. Therefore the establishment of special risk management system is necessary to manage not only geotechnical properties but also social and cultural uncertainties. This research presents the technique analysis by the current state of risk management technique. Risk factors were noticed and the importance of each factor was estimated through survey. The systemically categorized database was established. Risk extraction module, matrix and score module were developed based on the database. Expected construction budget and time distribution can be computed by Monte Carlo analysis of probabilities and influences. Construction budgets and time distributions of before and after response can be compared and analyzed 80 the risks are manageable for entire whole construction time. This system will be the foundation of standardization and integration. Procurement, efficiency improvement, effective time and resource management are available through integrated management technique development and application. Conclusively decrease in cost and time is expected by systemization of project management.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.92-100
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• 2015

Unlike most other planning processes, brownfield planning generally requires a high level of technical and legal expertise due to potential site contamination. To successfully engage in inclusionary decision making, an adaptive collaboration strategy for brownfield planning is therefore critical. This study examines how a communicative planning approach can be used to overcome the challenge of enabling experts from different fields to work alongside lay people from the local community to achieve a properly balanced collaboration in brownfield planning. After identifying appropriate indicators for collaboration through a literature review of established communicative planning theory, these indicators are applied to the brownfield planning process, highlighting critical points of collaboration such as site prioritization, assessment, remediation, and redevelopment throughout. The results suggest the critical need for an adaptive model focusing on three aspects: 1. Facilitation of a balanced dialogue between the experts with social, cultural, and design-based knowledge and the ones with scientific and engineering-based knowledge, 2. Preparation of an appropriate tool for risk communication with the lay people, 3. Development of decision support system for the integration of expert-oriented technical data and public opinion-oriented subjective data.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.1-13
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• 2019

In this study, we propose rainfall frequency criteria for the development of early-warning system based on the evaluation of the highway debris flow that includes the contents of the rainfall recurrence cycle. The rainfall criterion was recommended based on the results of previous researches and the recommended rainfall criterion was 1 hour, 6 hours, and 3 days. At this time, the study subjects were located in Gangwon area and the probability rainfall of 8 stations in Gangwon area was collected. Also, the probabilistic distribution of the 1 hour, 6 hour, and 3 day rainfall criteria to be used for the early warning for the highway debris flow in Kangwon area was estimated through the probability analysis. In addition, we analyzed the correlation between 3 types of rainfall criteria selected from the rainfall data and the actual destructive damages of debris flow at 12 points in 7 lines of Gangwon highways. At this time, the rainfall criterion on the probability distribution was divided into an average value and a lower limit value. As a result of the review, it was found that the case of using the lower limit value of the rainfall according to the recurrence intervalwell simulates the situation of actual debris flow hazards.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.507-522
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• 2021

Specific survey objectives often cannot be met using only one geophysical method, as each method's results are influenced by the specific physical properties of subsurface materials. In particular, areas susceptible to geological hazards require investigation using more than one method in order to reduce risks to life and property. Instead of analyzing the results from each method separately, this work develops a four-quadrant criterion for classifying areas of levees as safe or weak. The assessment is based on statistically determined thresholds of seismic velocity (P-wave velocity from seismic refraction and S-wave velocity from multichannel analysis of surface waves) and electrical resistivity. Thresholds are determined by subtracting the standard deviation from the mean during performance testing of this correlation technique applied to model data of four horizontal and inclined fracture zones. Compared with results from the crossplot of resistivity and P-wave velocity, crossplot analysis using resistivity and S-wave velocity data provides more reliable information on the soil type, ground stiffness, and lithological characteristics of the levee system. A loose and sandy zone (represented by low S-wave velocity and high resistivity) falling within the second quadrant is interpreted to be a weak zone. This interpretation is well supported by the N values from standard penetrating test for the central core.