• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.1123-1133
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• 2015

This study proposed an evaluation method of mobile emissions reduction strategies for air quality management. The proposed method was considered Travel Demand Model (TDM) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), while an existing method was focused on quantitative factors. AHP of the evaluation indices of mobile emissions reduction strategies show that quantitative evaluation indices such as air pollutants and greenhouse gas reduction are more important than the political evaluation indices (Consistency with an upper plan, Policy applicability, Technical applicability and feasibility) and each weight of air pollutants and greenhouse gas reduction are found to be 0.373 and 0.218. The early scrapping policy of decrepit diesel vehicle is the best policy in the proposal method using TDM and AHP but this result differs from evaluated result by TDM or AHP respectively. These results are limited to the basic assumption and range of reduction scenarios but are expected to contribute to establish more reasonable and effective mobile emission reduction strategies.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.67-104
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• 2018

In this paper, we compare the spread effects of the carbon tax imposition method using the real business cycle model considering the productivity and energy price shocks. Scenario 1 sets the carbon tax rate that encourages the representative firm to maintain a constant $CO_2$ reduction ratio in accordance with its green house gas reduction targets for each period. Scenario 2 sets the method of imposing the steady state value of the carbon tax rate of Scenario 1 during the analysis period. The impulse response analysis shows that the responses of $CO_2$ emissions to external shocks are relatively sensitive in scenario 2. And simulation results show that the cost of $CO_2$ abatement is more volatile in scenario 1, and $CO_2$ emissions and $CO_2$ stock are more volatile in scenario 2. In particular, the percentage changes in volatility between the two scenarios of $CO_2$ emissions and $CO_2$ stock increase as the green house gas reduction target is harder. When the green house gas reduction target is 60% and over, the percentage changes(absolute value) between the two scenarios exceed the percentage change(absolute value) of the $CO_2$ reduction cost between them.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.92-104
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• 2017

Previous management for speed in road traffic system was aimed only to the improvement of mobility and safety. However, consideration for the aspect of environment and energy consumption efficiency was valued less than the former ones. Nevertheless, economical damage scope caused by climate change has been increasing and it is estimated that environmental value will be increased because of the change of external circumstances. In addition, policy for reducing carbon emission in transportation system was assessed as insufficient in improving the condition of traffic road since it only focused on the transition of private vehicle into public transportation and development of eco-friendly car. Now it is the time to prepare for the adaptation strategy and precaution for the increased number of private vehicle in Korea. For this, paradigm shift in traffic operation which includes the policy not only about the mobility but also about caring environment would be needed. It is needed to be able to monitor the actual amount of greenhouse gas in real time to reduce the amount of emitted greenhouse gas in the aspect of traffic management. In this research, a methodology which can build on-line greenhouse gas emission monitoring system by using real time traffic data and predicting the circumstance in next 5 minutes was suggested.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.33-42
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• 2012

In this study, long-term greenhouse gas reductions expected passenger sector was used for the MESSAGE. Green Car road map proposed BAU scenario, Enhanced diffusion green car scenario, and price 1, 2 scenarios was configured with four scenarios. Enhanced diffusion green car in the scenario, in 2050 compared to BAU scenario 13% of the emissions will decrease. Price 1 and Price 2 scenario is emissions reduction of 14% compared to BAU. This study consists of six chapters. Introduction of MESSAGE, creation and RES in the year and the target year set a different base line and the passenger building materials sector activities, steps for passenger sector scenario and Based on the results of running the emissions reductions were to describe.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.55-81
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• 2007

Most studies on $CO_2$ abatement cost with a computational general equilibrium(CGE) model focus on a specific country. On the contrary, this study compares and analyses the $CO_2$ abatement cost functions across 20 countries, consisting of OECD countries, China and Brazil, with a CGE model. For this purpose, we estimate the GDP loss from $CO_2$ emission reduction, assuming the 4 sector model. Our findings show that those cost curves are convex but different among the countries. However, despite of the difference in the cost curios, we have found that one group of countries has the relatively constant average abatement cost and the other group has the increasing average cost. The reason why such a pattern occurs is explained in terms of the variations of value-added and $Co_2$ emission coefficient by sector across the countries. As an environmental policy implication, this study presents information about which country is similar to one another in terms of the abatement cost.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.371-416
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• 2012

This study has developed Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model reflecting endogenous growth economic theory, with the aim of analyzing double dividend hypothesis. This study analyzes possibility of economic growth and environmental improvement at the same time when government recycles the revenue of carbon tax to reduce existed taxes such as consumption tax, labor income tax, corporate tax. It also assesses the case of subsidy on R&D investment of renewable energy. With new and renewable generation technology adopted and disseminated, GDP loss would be lessened to a great degree. Tax recycling would provide economic gain by reducing distortion existed in the existing fiscal structure. The magnitude of economic gains from carbon tax recycling is biggest for recycling into corporate tax, and labor income tax, and then consumption tax in this order. It is also shown that double dividend effects occur in dynamic terms when government uses a carbon tax revenue to subsidize on R&D investment. At the end of the analysis period, emissions reduction would not result in GDP loss but in GDP gain. In particular, recycling into R&D increase would produce the largest and fastest GDP gain. Thus, implementing emissions reduction target would require careful consideration of economic effects by various policy instrument, including carbon tax.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.184-194
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• 2023

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to identify the characteristics of C02 emissions by road before establishing a policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Method: As for the analysis method, the traffic volume and speed of the road were estimated using the traffic Assignment model targeting 27 arterial road axes in Incheon Metropolitan City. And, after estimating CO2 emissions by road axis by applying this, the characteristics of each group were analyzed through cluster analysis. Result: As a result of cluster analysis using total CO2 emissions, CO2 emissions by truck vehicles, and the ratio of truck vehicle emissions to total carbon dioxide emissions, four clusters were classified. When examining the characteristics of each road included in each group, it was analyzed that the characteristics of each group appeared according to the level of impact by CO2 emissions and truck vehicles. Conclusion: It is judged that it is necessary to establish a plan in consideration of CO2 emission characteristics for road CO2 management for greenhouse gas reduction.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.91-91
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• 2020

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 5차 평가보고서에 의하면 최근 배출 온실가스의 양은 관측 이래 최고 수준이며 온실가스로 인한 기후변화는 인간계와 자연계에 광범위한 영향을 주고 있다고 보고하였다. 기후변화의 영향은 국제적으로 빙하 감소, 사막화, 해수면 상승 등 뚜렷하게 나타나고 있다. 이러한 기후변화에 대응하기 위해 온실가스 완화 정책과 동시에 새로운 기후변화 환경에 적응하는 것이 필요하다. 기후변화 적응이란 현재 나타나고 있거나 미래에 나타날 것으로 예상되는 기후변화의 파급효과와 영향에 대응할 수 있도록 하는 모든 행동이며 이를 위해서는 기후변화 영향분석이 수반되어야 한다. MOTIVE 연구단에서는 기후변화 적응대책 수립의 지원을 목표로 7개 부문(건강, 물관리, 농업, 산림, 생태, 해양, 수산)에서 "한국형 통합평가 모형"을 개발하고 있다. 각 부문에서 개발하는 프로세스 모델은 시스템에 대한 지식을 가진 상황에서 사용하면 신뢰할 수 있는 예측 결과를 얻을 수 있지만, 부문별 통합을 통한 영향 분석 시 타 분야에 대한 지식이 수반되어야 하는 어려움을 가진다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 시스템 내의 물리적 프로세스에 대한 요구 없이 입출력 데이터만을 이용하여 결과를 신속하게 추정하는 데이터 모델링(기계학습)을 이용하였다. 데이터 모델링을 위한 데이터는 다양한 자연 현상에 대한 BANPOL(수질 프로세스 모델) 분석을 통한 자료를 이용하여 학습 자료를 구축하였다. 즉, 데이터 모델링은 BANPOL 모델을 대리하는 메타모델이며, 낙동강 표준유역에 대한 유량 및 수질을 높은 상관성으로 추정하였다. 원 모델보다 정확도는 낮을 수 있으나 메타모델의 개발을 통한 웹 시스템을 개발하여 비전문가의 구동 및 신속한 기후 시나리오를 적용할 수 있는 환경을 개발하였다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.198-202
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• 2009

기후변화는 강수와 기온을 변화시켜 수자원에 지대한 영향을 미칠 것으로 알려져 있다. 따라서 이에 대한 안정적인 수자원 관리를 위해서는 기후변화 영향을 정량적으로 평가하는 것이 필요하다. 기본적으로 기후변화에 대한 수자원의 영향을 연구할 때 '온실가스 배출시나리오, GCMs을 통한 기후모의, 시공간적 편차보정을 위한 상세화, 유출모형 적용을 통한 유출시나리오 생산'의 과정을 거친다. 그러나 유출시나리오를 얻기까지 과정에는 각각 불확실성을 가지고 있기 때문에 최종결과의 불확실성은 각 과정을 거치면서 매우 커진다고 할 수 있다. 다양한 배출시나리오, GCM 결과, 유출모형에 대해 단순평균 혹은 가중치를 주는 multi-model ensemble 기법은 각 경우에 따른 값의 범위를 제시할 수있다는 점 때문에 불확실성 평가에서 주로 이용되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 5대강 유역 109개 중권역에 대해 multi-model ensemble을 적용하여 기후변화에 의한 수자원 영향을 평가하였다. 1971년에서 2100년까지 120년 기간에 대해 3개의 온실가스 배출시나리오, 13개의 GCMs 결과들을 수집하여 총 39개의 기후시나리오를 이용하였고, 이를 8개의 유출모형에 적용하여 총 312개의 유출시나리오를 생산하였다. 생산된 유출시나리오를 기준시간(1971${\sim}$2000)에 대한 미래의 세 기간(2020s, 2050s, 2080s)으로 나누어 변화율을 분석한 결과 여름철 유출량과 겨울철 유출량이 증가될것으로 나타났으나 겨울철 유출량 전망은 여름철에 비해 불확실성이 큰 것으로 나타났다. 공간적으로는 한강유역이 위치한 북쪽유역이 남쪽에 비해 불확실성이 큰 것으로 나타났다. 결과적으로 유출의 시공간적 편차에 의해 우리나라 수자원은 홍수피해 증가가 예상되었으며, 월별유출량의 변화로 인해 용수확보와 관리에 어려움이 증가할 것으로 전망되었다.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.347-364
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• 2021

Carbon neutral policy in Korea pays limited attention to the concept of sustainable economic growth. This limitation can be compared with other countries' carbon neutral policies such as US, UK and China where the climate change policies are closely connected to economic policies to boost further economic growth. This paper adopts a Ramsey growth model to account for the impact of carbon neutral policy on long-term economic growth and the accumulation capital. The model incorporates the Hartwick rule to allow sustainability of economic growth by transforming resource input into other input factor for growth. The analysis provides a possibility of low accumulation of capital as a result of carbon neutral policy in the absence of effective transformation of fossil-fuel factor into growth-related productive capital. Such low capital stock can be more aggravated when there exists a rent-seeking behavior of various interest groups with voracity to exploit social capital.