• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.495-505
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• 2011

This study performs statistical tests for stability of a long-run relationship in the telecommunication market system by identifying the time path of a recursively estimated cointegration parameter. A dummy variable is used to recover stability for the period that the hypothesis of stable cointegration is rejected, and then a proper cointegrating relation is derived. A dummy variable appears to reflect the structural change in the cointegrating relation according to the analytical results for the error correction term.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.44-52
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• 2020

More accurate forecasting of port cargo in the global long-term recession is critical for the implementation of port policy. In this study, the Busan Port container volume (export cargo and transshipment cargo) was estimated using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the vector error correction (VEC) model considering the causal relationship between the economic scale (GDP) of Korea, China, and the U.S. as well as ARIMA, a single volume model. The measurement data was the monthly volume of container shipments at the Busan port J anuary 2014-August 2019. According to the analysis, the time series of import and export volume was estimated by VAR because it was relatively stable, and transshipment cargo was non-stationary, but it has cointegration relationship (long-term equilibrium) with economic scale, interest rate, and economic fluctuation, so estimated by the VEC model. The estimation results show that ARIMA is superior in the stationary time-series data (local cargo) and transshipment cargo with a trend are more predictable in estimating by the multivariate model, the VEC model. Import-export cargo, in particular, is closely related to the size of our country's economy, and transshipment cargo is closely related to the size of the Chinese and American economies. It also suggests a strategy to increase transshipment cargo as the size of China's economy appears to be closer than that of the U.S.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.35-46
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• 2016

This study investigates the export behavior of Busan, Gwangyang and Incheon Port. The monthly data cover the period from January 2000 to December 2015. We employ six export functions composed of various exchange rates and industrial production index. This paper finds that the nominal effective exchange rate is more appropriate for explaining the export behaviors of the three ports, regardless of the narrow and wide indices which comprise 26 and 61 economies for the nominal and real indices respectively. This paper tests whether exchange rate and industrial production are stationary or not, rejecting the null hypothesis of a unit root in each of the level variables and of a unit root for the residuals from the cointegration at the 5 percent significance level. The error-correction model is estimated to find that both Gwangyang and Incheon ports are much slower than Busan port in adjusting the short-run disequilibrium and Gwangyang port is a little slower than Incheon port. The rolling regressions show that the influence of exchange rate as well as industrial production tends to decrease in all of three ports. The variance decomposition, however, shows that the export variables are very exogenous and the export of Busan Port is the least exogenous and that of Gwangyang Port the most. This result indicates that the economic variables such as exchange rate and economic activity affect the export of Busan Port more strongly than that of Gwangyang and Incheon Port.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.25-37
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• 2013

This study investigates the export behavior of port of Pyeongtaek-Dangjin and Daesan. The monthly data cover the period from January 2002 to December 2012. This paper tests whether the exchange rate and the industrial production are stationary or not, rejecting the null hypothesis of a unit root in each of the level variables and of a unit root for the residuals from the cointegration at the 5 percent significance level. The error-correction model is estimated to find that Daesan port is faster than Pyeongtaek-Dangjin in adjusting the short-run disequilibrium. This paper finds that the exchange rate coefficient of Daesan port is higher than that of Pyeongtaek-Dangjin port, while the industrial production coefficient of the former is much smaller than that of the latter. The industrial production coefficient is, however, much higher than the exchange rate coefficient in both ports. The rolling regression shows that the influence of exchange rate and industrial production tends to increase in Pyeongtaek-Dangjin port but tends to decrease in Daesan. The impulse response functions indicate that export volumes respond much greater to the positive shocks in industrial production than in exchange rate, and the exchange rate shock decays very fast, while the industrial production shock lasts very long.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.499-505
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• 2011

In this paper, we proposed an adaptive fuzzy sliding mode control for nonlinear systems without parameter projection method. By modifying the controller structure, the parameters of the estimated input gain function are guaranteed not being identically zero and it is shown that the control scheme will not cause any implementation problem even if the estimated value of input gain function is zero at any moment during on-line operations. Except for the input gain function which an approximate estimate for its lower bound is needed, the proposed control scheme does not assume a priori the exact values of the bounding parameters. Based on Lyapunov synthesis methods, the overall control system guarantees that the tracking error asymptotically converges to zero and that all signals involved in controller are uniformly bounded. This can be illustrated by the simulation results for an inverted pendulum system.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.23-41
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• 2001

본 연구에서는 여러 계량 모형을 이용하여 계산한 헤지 비율의 성과를 비교하였다. 특히 헤지 비율을 추정하기 위하여 분수 공적분 오차 수정 모형을 이용하였다. KOSPI200 현물과 선물 지수를 이용하여 검증한 결과 현물, 선물 지수는 1차 적분된 시계열이며 베이시스는 분수 적분된 시계열이었다. 따라서 현물과 선물 지수는 분수 공적분된 시계열이었다. 최소 분산 헤지 비율을 최적 헤지 비율로 하여 성과를 측정한 결과 다음과 같은 결과를 얻었다. 헤지 성과는 GARCH 항이 있는 모형이 없는 모형에 비해 크게 나타나며 각 모형에서 고려하고 있는 정보 집합의 크기가 큰 순서인 FIEC, EC, VAR, OLS 순으로 헤지 성과는 크게 나타나고 있다. 그러나 OLS 방법에 의한 헤지에 의해서도 수익률 변동의 많은 부분이 사라져, 다른 모형들은 OLS 모형과 비교하여 추가적인 분산 감소 효과는 크지 않았다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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• 2001.04a
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• pp.27-59
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• 2001

The population enumeration data from the decennial U.S. census are used in the apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives and federal revenue sharing. The primary purpose of this study is to examine the various issues about the U.S. Census 2000. More specifically, this paper analyzes the sociopolitical implications of the racial and ethnic variations in net undercount rate in the census. In addition, we investigate the politics of race and ethnicity centering the census questions on race and use of sampling for adjustment of the enumeration data.

• Survey Research
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.27-59
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• 2001

The population enumeration data from the decennial U.S. census are used in the apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives and federal revenue sharing. The primary purpose of this study is to examine the various issues about the U.S. Census 2000. More specifically, this paper analyzes the sociopolitical implications of the racial and ethnic variations in net undercount rate in the census. In addition. we investigate the politics of race and ethnicity centering the census questions on race and use of sampling for adjustment of the enumeration data.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.9 no.7
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• pp.76-85
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• 2009

UWB signal with high resolution capability can be used to estimate ranging and positioning in wireless personal area network. The node works on its local clock and the frequency differences of nodes have serious affects on ranging algorithms estimating locations of mobile nodes. The low rate UWB, IEEE802.15.4a, describes asynchronous two way ranging methods such as TWR and SDS-TWR working without any additional network synchronization, but the algorithms can not eliminate the effect of clock frequency differences. Therefore, the mechanisms to characterize the crystal difference is essential in typical UWB PHY implementations. In high rate UWB, characterizing of crystal offset with tracking loop is not required. But, detection of the clock frequency offset between the local clock and remote clock can be performed if there is little noise induced jitter. In this paper, we complete related ranging equations of high rate UWB based on TWR with relative frequency offset, and analyze a residual error in the ideal equations. We also evaluate the performance of the relative frequency offset algorithm by simulation and analyze the ranging errors according to the number of TWR to compensate coarse clock resolution. The results show that the relative frequency offset compensation and many times of TWR enhance the performance to converge to a limited ranging errors even with coarse clock resolutions.

• Journal of Korean Port Research
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.1-11
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• 1997

The conventional methods of container forecasting is done through regression methods based on GNP growth trends and by other forecasting methods proposed by several authors. However these efforts prove to be inadequate with visible weakness and a more reasonable approach need to be determined. The succeeding sections elaborate the methodology and approach adopted. The results are then compared through a case study involving the forecast figures derived by the Pusan Port Authority and the values obtained by MRCS model introduced in this paper.