• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.34 no.3
• /
• pp.347-373
• /
• 2021

Over the past 50 years, explorative research on the nation's mortality decline patterns has showed a decrease in age-specific mortality rates in all age groups, but there were different improvement patterns in specific mortality rates depending on ages and periods. Greater distinct improvement was observed in mortality rates among women than men, and there was a noticeable improvement in mortality rates in certain groups especially in the more recent decades, revealing a structural change in the overall trends regarding death periods. In this paper, we compare various stochastic mortality models considering cohort effects for mortality projection using Korean female mortality data and further explore the uncertainty related to projection. It also created age-specific mortality rates and life expectancy for women until 2067 based on the results of the analysis, and compared them with future age-specific mortality rates and life expectancy provided by the national statistical office (KOISIS). The best optimal model could vary depending on data usage periods. however, considering the overall fit and predictability, the PLAT model would be regarded to have appropriate predictability in terms of the mortality rates of women in South Korea.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.31 no.1
• /
• pp.41-65
• /
• 2018

In Korea, as the mortality rate improves in a shorter period of time than in developed countries, it is important to consider the selection of the time series as well as the model selection in the mortality projection. Therefore, this study proposed a method using the multiple regression model in respect to the selection of the time series period. In addition, we investigate the problems that arise when various time series are used based on the Lee-Carter (LC) model, the kinds of LC model along with Lee-Miller (LM) and Booth-Maindonald-Smith (BMS), and the non-parametric model such as functional data model (FDM) and Coherent FDM, and examine differences in the age-specific mortality rate and life expectancy projection. Based on the analysis results, the age-specific mortality rate and predicted life expectancy of men and women are calculated for the year 2030 for each model. We also compare the mortality rate and life expectancy of the next generation provided by Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS).

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• v.6 no.2
• /
• pp.155-165
• /
• 1977

현 시점에서의 인구의 성별/연령별 구성은 과거의 출산, 사망에 의한 인구진행과정(demographic process)의 잔류효과라고 볼 수 있다. 한편 현재의 인구의 성별/연령별 구성은 장래의 인구증가에 잠재적인 영향력을 미치게 된다. 예를 들면 인구의 대부분이 45세 이상으로 구성되어 있다면 출산률은 낮고 사망률은 높아서 인구증가는 더디다. 즉 인구의 연령별 구성은 인구증가를 좌우하는 하나의 동적인 요인으로 볼 수 있다. 연령구성이 한 결과인 동시에 하나의 요인이기도 하다는, 이러한 이중적인 성격은 서로 얽히고 복잡한 것이다. 이 논문에서는 둘째 관점, 즉 연령구성을 하나의 동적요인으로 보고, 그것이 인구증가에 미치는 잠재력(potentail) 또는 관성(momentum)에 관해서 고찰하고 최근(1970, 1975)의 한국 센서스 결과에 대해서 이를 정량적으로 계측하고자 한다.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.22 no.1
• /
• pp.37-63
• /
• 1999

한국 사망력의 수준 및 특징을 일본과 비교하고자 양국의 1995년 공식통계를 사용하여 사망원인별로 성·연령·혼인상태별 사망률, 연령표준화사망률, 생존기간손실년수(PYLL) 및 동 측정치의 남녀간 비와 한일간 비를 계산하였다. 사망원인 항목은 모든 사인(총사망), 결핵, 악성신생물, 당뇨병, 고혈압성 질환, 심장 질환, 뇌혈관 질환, 간 진환, 교통사고, 자살을 포함한다. 일본과 비교하여 한국 사망력의 두드러진 특징은 다음과 같다 : (1)자살을 제외한 대부분의 사인에서 한국의 사망률이 일본보다 높은데 , 특히 결핵, 고혈압성 질환, 간 질환 및 교통사고의 경우 한국 생산활동연령층의 사망률이 두드러지게 높다 : (2)결핵, 간질환, 교통사고, 암사망이 한국의 소아에게서도 발생한다 : (3)한국의 생산활동연령층에서 간 질환, 결핵, 교통사고에 의한 성별 사망력 격차가 큰데, 남성의 사망률이 여성의 사망률보다 높기 때문이다 : (4)자살률이 한국생산활동연령층 남성의 경우 일본보다 낮고, 10대와 20대 여성의 자살률은 일본보다 높다 : (5)한국의 45세 미만에서는 사인에 따라 사별이나 이혼상태에서, 45세 이상에서는 모든 사인에 대해 남녀 모두 미혼상태에서 사망력이 가장 높다. : (6)한국은 사별상태에서, 일본은 이혼상태에서 성별 사망력 격차가 가장 크다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
• /
• 2018.05a
• /
• pp.149-151
• /
• 2018

The purpose of this paper is to visualize and to analyze differences of regional mortality rates by major causes of death. We use causes of death statistics from KOSIS and compare regional mortality rates divided by national mortality rates by three causes of death. To do this, we define regional mortality ratio and regional age-standardized mortality ratio, and visualized by choropleth map using R. As a result, In case of neoplasm, there was no significant difference by region. In case of circulatory system, Ulsan, Daegu, Busan and Gyungnam showed relatively high regional age-standardized mortality ratio. In case of respiratory system, the ratios were in order of Gangwon, Sejong, and Chungbuk.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.18 no.3
• /
• pp.639-654
• /
• 2005

The Lee and Carter method has widely used to forecast mortality because of the simple structure of model and the stable forecasting. The Lee and Carter method, however, also has limitations. The assumption of the rate of decline in mortality at each age remaining invariant over time has been violated in several decades. And, there is no way to include covariates in the model for better forecasts. Here we introduce Park, Choi and Kim method to make up for Lee and Carter's weak points by using two random processes. We discuss structural features of two methods. furthermore, for each method, we forecast life expectancy for 2005 to 2050 using South Korea data and compare the results.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.30 no.5
• /
• pp.701-717
• /
• 2017

The interest of Korean society and government on future demographic structures is increasing due to rapid aging. Korea's mortality rate is decreasing, but the declined gap is variable. In this study, we compare the Lee-Carter, Lee-Miller, Booth-Maindonald-Smith model and functional data model (FDM) as well as Coherent FDM using non-parametric smoothing technique. We are then examine a reasonable model for projecting on mortality declined rate trend in terms of accuracy of mortality rate by ages and life expectancy. The possibility of using non-parametric techniques for the prediction of mortality in Korea was also examined. Based on the analysis results, FDM and Coherent FDM, which uses the non-parametric technique and reflects the trend of recent data, are excellent. As a result, FDM and Coherent FDM are good fit, and predictability is also excellent assuming no significant future changes.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.29 no.2
• /
• pp.27-51
• /
• 2006

In this paper, I have tested various kinds of methods for mortality projection and chose Lee-Carter method for projection of Korean mortality by age and sex. I reviewed the trends of life tables and life expectancies by age and sex from 2005 to 2050 projected by Lee-Carter method and found that the method was very applicable for Korean mortality projection. The differences between reported and estimated data for the period of 1971-2003 were small enough for both sexes and for all of the age groups. The projected life expectancies in 2051 were 82.73 years for males and 89.41 for females, and the differences decreased from 7.06 years in 2005 to 6.68 years. Because of the limitation of Korean infant mortality rate, I adopted the Japanese estimated IMR in 2050 as Korean object level in 2051. When the time series of IMR become long enough, we can use Korean IMR directly for the mortality projection. In addition, if we can estimate the changes of the main cause of death correctly in future, the mortality projection will be more correct and reliable. This will be available when we can produce a long series of life tables by cause of deaths.

• Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
• /
• v.45 no.4
• /
• pp.235-244
• /
• 2020

Objectives: Gyeongsangbuk-do has entered a super-aged society with 20.7% of the population aged 65 and older. As of April 30, 2020, the death rate of COVID-19(3.8 people) in Gyeongsangbuk-do is higher than the national mortality rate (2.3 people), and the fatality rate of COVID-19 by age accounts for more than half of the total of 58.6%, so it is time to propose to prevent infectious diseases in the event of additional infectious disease disasters COVID-19. Methods: We collected daily data on the number of confirmed cases and deaths due to COVID-19 from 19 February to 30 April 2020. The data collected was evaluated using the SPSS 21.0 statistical package. Results: As a result of comparing the incidence and death-related factors of confirmed patients in Gyeongsangbuk-do, there were significant differences in age group (p<0.001), underlying disease (p<0.001), and residence type (p<0.033). Conclusion: Factors affecting the mortality rate of confirmed patients in Gyeongsangbuk-do have been combined with individual level factors(age, gender, underlying disease), which means individual characteristics that have existed since before the disease, and regional level factors(Type of Residence), which are external factors that enable the use of medical resources. Therefore, each local government is required to establish preventive measures considering individual and regional level factors.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.31 no.5
• /
• pp.637-653
• /
• 2018

Rapid aging of the population affects population structure and population aging. Consequently, developed countries have focused on population aging as a major issue in regards to pension sustainability finances as well as health and the elderly welfare system. Mortality projections that result from population structure changes and population aging are increasingly important. This paper compares six mortality models using KOSTAT's life table from 1970 to 2016. The models are rooted in the Lee-Carter (LC) model (Lee and Carter, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87, 659-671, 1992) and have been modified and improved on the assumptions of the LC model. We examined the improvement process and the check assumption by models in order to find a suitable mortality model for Korea. Korea shows rapid aging and declined mortality rate by age; therefore, it is desirable to estimate and predict mortality from LL&LC-ER models by combining LC-ER, LL, and LC-ER models that reflect the phenomena and modify age-specific mortality patterns without major changes in expected life expectancy.