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http://dx.doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2005.18.3.639

A Comparison of Two Models for Forecasting Mortality in South Korea  

Park Yousung (Dept. of Statistics, Korea University)
Kim Kee Whan (Dept. of Informational Statistics, Korea University)
Lee Dong-Hee (Dept. of Statistics, Korea University)
Lee Yeon Kyung (Dept. of Statistics, Korea University)
Publication Information
The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics / v.18, no.3, 2005 , pp. 639-654 More about this Journal
Abstract
The Lee and Carter method has widely used to forecast mortality because of the simple structure of model and the stable forecasting. The Lee and Carter method, however, also has limitations. The assumption of the rate of decline in mortality at each age remaining invariant over time has been violated in several decades. And, there is no way to include covariates in the model for better forecasts. Here we introduce Park, Choi and Kim method to make up for Lee and Carter's weak points by using two random processes. We discuss structural features of two methods. furthermore, for each method, we forecast life expectancy for 2005 to 2050 using South Korea data and compare the results.
Keywords
Mortality; Lee and Carter; Integer valued time series; Life expectancy; Forecasting;
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