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http://dx.doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2017.30.5.701

A study comparison of mortality projection using parametric and non-parametric model  

Kim, Soon-Young (Statistical Research Institute, Statistics Korea)
Oh, Jinho (Statistical Research Institute, Statistics Korea)
Publication Information
The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics / v.30, no.5, 2017 , pp. 701-717 More about this Journal
Abstract
The interest of Korean society and government on future demographic structures is increasing due to rapid aging. Korea's mortality rate is decreasing, but the declined gap is variable. In this study, we compare the Lee-Carter, Lee-Miller, Booth-Maindonald-Smith model and functional data model (FDM) as well as Coherent FDM using non-parametric smoothing technique. We are then examine a reasonable model for projecting on mortality declined rate trend in terms of accuracy of mortality rate by ages and life expectancy. The possibility of using non-parametric techniques for the prediction of mortality in Korea was also examined. Based on the analysis results, FDM and Coherent FDM, which uses the non-parametric technique and reflects the trend of recent data, are excellent. As a result, FDM and Coherent FDM are good fit, and predictability is also excellent assuming no significant future changes.
Keywords
aging; non-parametric smoothing; mortality rate by ages; Life expectancy; FDM; Coherent FDM;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 3  (Citation Analysis)
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