• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.280-280
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• 2016

특정 자료의 시간의 흐름에 따른 예측치를 추정하는 방법으로 AR Model 즉, 자기회귀모형이 많이 사용되고 있다. AR Model은 변수의 현재 값을 과거 값의 함수로 나타내게 되는데, 이런 시계열 분석 모델을 사용할 때 매개변수의 추정 과정이 필수적으로 요구된다. 일반적으로 매개변수를 추정하는 방법에는 확률적근사법(stochastic approximation), 최소제곱법(method of least square), 자기상관법(method of autocorrelation method), 최우도법(method of maximum likelihood) 등이 있다. AR Model에서 가장 많이 사용되는 최우도법은 표본크기가 충분히 클 때 가장 효율적인 방법으로 평가되지만 수치적으로 해를 구하는 과정이 복잡한 경우가 많으며, 해를 구하지 못하는 어려움이 따르기도 한다. 또한 표본 크기가 작을 때 일반적으로 잘 일치하지 않은 결과를 얻게 된다. 우리나라의 강우, 유량 등의 자료는 자료의 수가 적은 경우가 많기 때문에 최우도법을 통한 매개변수 추정 시 불확실성이 내재되어있지만 그것을 정량적으로 제시하는데 한계가 있다. 본 연구에서는 AR Model의 매개변수 추정 시 Bayesian 기법으로 매개변수의 사후분포(posterior distribution)를 제공하여 매개변수의 불확실성 구간을 정량적으로 표현하게 됨으로써, 시계열 분석을 통해 보다 신뢰성 있는 예측치를 얻을 수 있으리라 판단된다.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.5C
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• pp.183-190
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• 2009

It is necessary to predict the deformation and stresses on soils to establish the nonlinear stress-strain relationship of geomaterials at various strain levels. Especially, a need exists to establish the pre-failure nonlinear characteristic of cemented granular geomaterials used in road constructions. In this paper, therefore, conventional granular soils were mixed with various cementing materials, such as cement and fly ash from coal combustion by-products. Then, the normalized nonlinear behavior of cemented geomaterials was assessed using unconfined compression test. In addition, various constitutive models of soils were evaluated for estimating pre-failure non-linear behavior of cemented geomaterials from the test results.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.183-195
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• 2003

In this study, the method of the finite element modeling for free vibration control of beam-type smart structures with bonded plate-type piezoelectric sensors and actuators is proposed. Constitutive equations for the direct piezoelectric effect and converse piezoelectric effect of piezoelectric materials are considered. By using the variational principle, the equations of motion for the smart beam finite element are derived. The proposed 2-node beam finite element is an isoparametric element based on Timoshenko beam theory. Therefore, by analyzing beam-type smart structures with smart beam finite elements, it is possible to simulate the control of the structural behavior by applying voltages to piezoelectric actuators and monitoring of the structural behavior by sensing voltages of piezoelectric sensors. By using the smart beam finite element and constant-gain feed back control scheme, the formulation of the free nitration control for the beam structures with bonded plate-tyPe Piezoelectric sensors and actuators is proposed.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.268-268
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• 2023

전 지구적 급격한 기후변화로 인해 수문기상인자들의 비선형적 변동성이 발생함과 동시에 가뭄, 홍수와 같은 수재해의 발생빈도 및 강도가 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 이에 따라, 세계의 유수기관 (NASA, ESA 등)에서는 대기모형과 해양 모형의 결합 및 수치해석적 접근법을 활용하여 계절내-계절 (Subseasonal to seasonal; S2S) 예측치를 생산하여 제공하고 있다. 이에 따라, 본 연구에서는 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF)에서 산정되는 수문기상인자 (강수량, 증발산량 및 유출량)에 대한 정확도를 평가하고자 한다. 연구지역으로는 다양한 기후대 및 토지 피복으로 구성되어 있으며, El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Diapole (IOD)와 같은 기후 현상이 빈번히 발생하는 호주지역을 대상으로 연구를 수행하였다. ECMWF S2S 자료에 대한 통계적 검증은 1) 지점 기반 관측치와 더불어 2) 물수지 모델 기반 수문 추정치 (The Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape Model; AWRA-L)와 비교하였다. 연구 결과 S2S 강우 및 증발산량 산정치의 경우 비교적 짧은 예측기간(약 2주)에서 상대적으로 높은 상관관계 (R=0.5~0.6)와 낮은 편차 (강수량 = 0.10 mm/day, 증발산량 = 0.21 mm/day)를 나타내었다. 유출량의 경우, 강우 및 증발산량에 비해 상대적으로 낮은 정확도를 나타내었으며, 예측 기간이 길어짐에 따라 불확실성이 상당히 높아지는 것으로 확인되었다. 이는, S2S 계산과정에서 강우 및 증발산량 뿐만아니라 지표 유출로 도달하기 전까지의 수문기상인자들의 불확실성이 모두 모여 유출량의 불확실성이 높아진 것으로 확인할 수 있었다. 계절적 검증에서는, 강우 및 증발산량 모두 여름철에 높은 상관관계를 나타내었지만 불확실성은 상대적으로 큰 값을 나타내었다. 자세한 분석을 위해, 공간적인 불확실성을 분석해본 결과 ECMWF S2S가 매우 습윤하거나 건조한 지역에서 수문기상인자를 예측하는데 있어 한계성이 나타난 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구를 토대로, 추후 S2S 예측치에 대한 보정과 더불어 미래의 수재해 발생 위험도에 대한 정보를 획득하는데 적용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.351-366
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• 2014

We assumed the situation where an eruption column had been formed by the explosive Plinian eruption from Mt. Baekdu and that the collapse of eruption column had caused pyroclastic density currents to occur. Based on this assumption, we simulated by using a Titan2D model. To find out about the range of the impacts of pyroclastic density currents by volcanic eruption scenarios, we studied the distance for the range of the impacts by VEIs. To compare the results by each volcanic eruption scenario, we set the location of the vent on the 8-direction flank of the outer rim and on the center of the caldera, the internal friction angle of the pyroclastic density currents as $35^{\circ}$, the bed friction angle as $16^{\circ}$. We set the pile height of column collapse and the vent diameter with various VEIs. We properly assumed the height of the column collapse, the diameter of the vent, the initial rates of the column collapse and the simulation period, based on the VEIs, gravity and the volume of the collapsed volcanic ash. According to the comparative analysis of the simulation results based on the increase of the eruption, the higher VEI by the increase of eruption products, the farther the pyroclastic density currents disperse. To the northwest from the vent on the northeast slope of the outer rim of the caldera, the impact range was 3.3 km, 4.6 km, 13.2 km, 24.0 km, 50.2 km, 83.4 km or more from VEI=2 to VEI=7, respectively. Once the database has been fully constructed, it can be used as a very important material in terms of disaster prevention and emergency management, which aim to minimize human and material damages in the vicinity of Mt. Baekdu when its eruption causes the pyroclastic density currents to occur.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.38 no.12
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• pp.45-65
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• 2022

In this paper, a diaphragm wall that supports soils and rock was modeled using FLAC, a finite difference analysis program, to evaluate the seismic behavior of temporary retaining structures in a deep excavation. The appropriateness of the numerical model was verified by comparing its results with those of the centrifuge test performed in a similar condition. The bending moment distribution along the diaphragm wall shows a very similar tendency, and the maximum acceleration obtained at the backfill and top of the wall shows a difference within 5%. Based on the developed model, a parametric study was conducted in various input earthquake, ground, and excavation conditions. The maximum structural forces and bending moment under earthquake loading were compared with the maximum values during excavation, from which the critical condition that requires a seismic design was roughly sorted out. The maximum bending moment of a wall that retains soil layers increased 17%. Particularly, the axial force of struts located in loose soils increased 32% under 100 years return period of an earthquake event, which strongly is estimated to require seismic design for structural safety.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.27-41
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• 2023

Submerged floating tunnels must be connected to the ground to connect continents. The displacement imbalance at the shore connection between the underground bored tunnel and submerged floating tunnel can cause stress concentration, accompanying a fracture at the shore connection. The elastic joint has been proposed as a method to relive the stress concentration, however, the effect of the elastic joints on the dynamic behavior should be evaluated. In this study, the submerged floating tunnel and shore connection under dynamic load conditions were simulated through numerical analysis using a numerical model verified through a small-scaled physical model test. The resonant frequency was considered as a dynamic behavioral characteristic of the tunnel under the impact load, and it was confirmed that the stiffness of the elastic joint and the resonant frequency exhibit a power function relationship. When the shore connection is designed with a soft joint, the resonant frequency of the tunnel is reduced, which not only increases the risk of resonance in the marine environment where a dynamic load of low frequency is applied, but also greatly increases the maximum velocity of tunnel when resonance occurs.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.41 no.1 s.112
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• pp.106-120
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• 2006

Natural or man-made disaster has been expected to be one of the potential themes that can integrate human geography and physical geography. Typhoons like Rusa and Maemi caused great loss to insurance companies as well as public sectors. We have implemented a natural disaster management system for a private insurance company to produce better estimation of hazards from high wind as well as calculate vulnerability of damage. Climatic gauge sites and addresses of contract's objects were geo-coded and the pressure values along all the typhoon tracks were vectorized into line objects. National GIS topog raphic maps with scale of 1: 5,000 were updated into base maps and digital elevation model with 30 meter space and land cover maps were used for reflecting roughness of land to wind velocity. All the data are converted to grid coverage with $1km{\times}1km$. Vulnerability curve of Munich Re was ad opted, and preprocessor and postprocessor of wind velocity model was implemented. Overlapping the location of contracts on the grid value coverage can show the relative risk, with given scenario. The wind velocities calculated by the model were compared with observed value (average $R^2=0.68$). The calibration of wind speed models was done by dropping two climatic gauge data, which enhanced $R^2$ values. The comparison of calculated loss with actual historical loss of the insurance company showed both underestimation and overestimation. This system enables the company to have quantitative data for optimizing the re-insurance ratio, to have a plan to allocate enterprise resources and to upgrade the international creditability of the company. A flood model, storm surge model and flash flood model are being added, at last, combined disaster vulnerability will be calculated for a total disaster management system.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.219-227
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• 2013

This study analyzed the effect of performance connected-type foundations of behavior and the connected beams according to the characteristics into soft clay transmission tower foundation. For this purpose, the finite element analysis model was built and connected to the transmission tower foundation mat and the contact area of the connection beam by the percentage change in the behavior and resistance characteristics were analyzed and finite element verification of the validity of the analytical model was conducted using connected-type transmission tower results of the model experiments constructed, and effective connected-type transmission tower basis of the behavior of connected beams were selected by analyzing the effect due to the increase of the stiffness. In addition, weak analysis by connected beam self-bending moment distribution was conducted.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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• v.25 no.8
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• pp.857-863
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• 2014

In determining interaction between plasma and electromagnetic wave, plasma frequency and collision frequency are two key parameters. They are derived from electron density and temperature, which vary in an extremely wide range, depending on a plasma generator. Because the parameters are usually unknown, traditional researches have utilized simplified electron density model and constant electron temperature approximation. Introduction of plasma fluid model to electromagnetics is suggested to utilize relatively precise time dependent variables for given generator. Dielectric barrier discharge(DBD) generator is selected due to its simple geometry which allows us to use one dimensional analysis. Time dependent property is analyzed when microwave is launched toward parallel plate DBD plasma. Afterwards, attenuation tendency with the change of electron density and temperature is demonstrated.