• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.37 no.11
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• pp.1315-1321
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• 2013

This study presents a prognostic technique for the damage state of a ball bearing. A stochastic bearing fatigue defect-propagation model is applied to estimate the damage progression rate. The damage state and the time to failure are computed by using RMS data from noisy acceleration signals. The parameters of the stochastic defect-propagation model are identified by conducting a series of run-to-failure tests for ball bearings. A regularized particle filter is applied to predict the damage progression rate and update the degradation state based on the acceleration RMS data. The future damage state is predicted based on the most recently measured data and the previously predicted damage state. The developed method was validated by comparing the prognostic results and the test data.

• Explosives and Blasting
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• v.41 no.4
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• pp.1-8
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• 2023

On August 4, 2020, 2750 tons of ammonium nitrate stored in a storage warehouse at the Port of Beirut exploded. This explosion is said to be the largest ammonium nitrate explosion ever. By applying the TNT equivalency method, TNT equivalent amount corresponding to the explosion energy of 2750 tons of ammonium nitrate was calculated, and it is found to be 856 tons. Overpressure and impulse were calculated in a range up to 3600 m from the blast using the Kingery-Bulmash explosion parameter calculator tool. As the distance from the explosion center increases, the overpressure and impulse decrease exponentially, but the overpressure decreases more significantly, showing that overpressure is more affected by distance than the impact. As a result of applying the damage criteria to evaluate the effects of overpressure and impulse on the structure, the critical distances at which partial collapse, major damage, and minor damage to the structure occur are found to be approximately 500, 800, and 2200 m from the center of the explosion, respectively. The probit function was applied to evaluate the probability of damage to structures and human body. The points where the probability of collapse, major damage, minor damage, and breakage of window-panes to structures are greater than 50% are found to be approximately 500, 810, 2200, and 3200 m, respectively. For people within 200 m from the center of the explosion, the probability of death due to lung damage is more than 99%, and the 50% probability of eardrum rupture is approximately 300 m. The points with a 100% probability of death due to skull rupture and whole body impact due to whole body displacement are evaluated to be 300 and 100 m, respectively.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.15-29
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• 2010

Spalling is a kind of instability phenomenon of surrounding rock around underground openings subjected to high in-situ stress according to the development of extension fractures. Three kinds of spalling criteria have been presented so far; however, all spalling criteria have the range of values so that the fuzziness and vagueness of spalling criterion cannot be avoided. In this study, a new fuzzy probability model is proposed to predict the probability of spalling in a systematic way by using fuzzy probability theory. Many of the underground opening projects worldwide are evaluated with the proposed method. Prediction results expressed as the spalling probability agree well with the in-situ observations. In particular, a new fuzzy probability model considering all three evaluation indices of spalling by adopting weighting factors based on relative reliability among three evaluation indices is able to resolve erroneous prediction of spalling by choosing only one prediction method. Moreover, the more reasonable value of spalling probability could have been obtained by adopting the modified damage index to the newly proposed fuzzy probability model.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.217-226
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• 1993

This study is related to the surface subsidence due to the collapse of a underground void during earthquakes. The amount of the settlement due to the collapse of a underground void will depend on the depth of the void, the initial condition of unit weight of sand, the size and type of foundation, the strength of earthquake, the size of a void, etc. The purpose of the paper is to estimate the amount of the subsidence, analyse the factors affecting the subsidence, and develop a program determining the probability of the damages to structures in terms of absolute and differential settlement and rotational settlement. On the base of the results obtained in this study, when the depth of a void is constant and the width of the void increases, the change of the subsidence factor due to the angle of internal friction and the actual effective factor of the void become smaller than that due to the unit weight of sand deposits. In the same condition, the probabilities of damages due to the absolute and differential settlement increase, and those due to the rotational settlement decrease.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.127-138
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• 2011

Certified Missile Round Concepts that is one-shot device use the periodic inspection policy to improve the continuously deteriorated reliability. In this paper, we suggest dormant reliability prediction model by simulation with real operational environment. The suggested prediction model is based on optimal inspection period decision model and additionally considers various constraints; moving, inspection or repair service time. The simulation results show the constraints affect dormant reliability and missile availability. Lastly, we suggest building up a depot to resolve the above problems by the suggested simulation model.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.52-65
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• 2021

In this study, authors analyzed the vapor cloud explosion induced by propane leak at the PEMIX Terminal, which is the propane storage facility outside of Mexico City. TNT equivalence mass for the leaked 4750 kg propane was estimated to be 9398 kg. Blast parameters such as peak overpressure, positive phase duration, and impact at 40-400 (m) away from the center of the explosion were calculated by applying TNT Equivalency Method and Multi-Energy Method. The probability of damage due to lung damage, eardrum rupture, head impact, and whole-body displacement impact by applying the probit function obtained using blast parameters was evaluated. The peak overpressure obtained using Multi-Energy Method was found to be greater than the peak overpressure obtained by applying the TNT Equivalency Method at all distances considered, but it was evaluated that there was no significant difference from the points above 200 m. The peak overpressure obtained by Multi-Energy Method was computed to assess the extent of damage to the structure, and it was shown that structures within 100 m of the explosion center would collapse completely, and that the glasses of the structures 400 m away would be almost broken. The probability of death due to lung damage was shown to vary depending on a human body's position located in the propagating direction of shock wave, and if there is a reflecting surface in the immediate surroundings of a human body, the probability of death was estimated to be the greatest. The impact of shock wave on lung damage, eardrum rupture, head impact, and whole-body displacement impact was evaluated and found to affect whole-body impact < lung damage < eardrum rupture

• Bulletin of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.43-48
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• 1993

본 보고는 금년 1원 11일부터 15일까지 영국 런던에서 개최된 SLF 37차 회의 결과를 중심으로 선박의 손상 복원성과 관련된 최근의 IMo의 동향을 소개하여 국내 관련업계에 최신정보를 제공하고 향후의 대처방향을 논의하기 위함이다. 앞으로의 국제협약에서의 손상 복원성 규칙은 점차 확률론적인 방법으로 바뀌어 가는 추세이며 이러한 IMO의 의도를 구체적으로 반영한 실례가 SOLAS 92이다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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• v.15 no.5 s.66
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• pp.475-487
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• 2003

This study developed an analysis model of estimating fatigue damage using the linear elastic fracture mechanics method. Stress history occurring to an element when a truck passed over a bridge was defined as block loading and crack closure theory explaining load interaction effect was applied. Stress range frequency analysis considering dead load stress and crack opening was done. Probability of stress range frequency distribution was applied and the probability distribution parameters were estimated. The Monte Carlo simulation of generating the probability various of distribution was performed. The probability distribution of failure block numbers was obtained. With this the fatigue reliability of an element not occurring in failure could be calculated. The failure block number divided by average daily truck traffic remains the life of a day. Fatigue reliability analysis model was carried out for the welding member of cross beam flange and vertical stiffener of steel box bridge using the proposed model. Consequently, a 3.8% difference was observed between the remaining life in the peak analysis method and in the proposed analysis model. The proposed analysis model considered crack closure phase and crack retard.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.1097-1104
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• 1994

The external loads applied to a real structure may cause a severe damage and may eventually lead to total failure. It is thus the requirement that the structure must be designed to fulfil its safe function under any anticipated loads and must have the desired level of safety. The purpose of the present study is to propose a method of damage accumulation under seismic loadings to utilize it in the safety assessment of a reinforced concrete structure. To this end, the nonlinear hysteretic behavior of reinforced concrete structures is first modeled and the equivalent linearization technique is employed to solve numerically the probabilistic characteristics of response under random seismic loadings.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.7 no.2 s.19
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• pp.1-6
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• 2003

In this work, procedure evaluating failure modes such as pipe rupture, large scale leak, and small scale leak was suggested using equations to assess remaining strength by corrosion failure. Additionally, the method to predict probability of failure was suggested according to the aforementioned failure modes, and by combining data on corrosion rate, probability of long-term failure can be induced. This work will be very useful in predicting lifetime or exchanging period of pipeline.