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Differential Diagnosis By Analysis of Pleural Effusion (흉수분석에 의한 질병의 감별진단)

  • Ko, Won-Ki;Lee, Jun-Gu;Jung, Jae-Ho;Park, Mu-Suk;Jeong, Nak-Yeong;Kim, Young-Sam;Yang, Dong-Gyoo;Yoo, Nae-Choon;Ahn, Chul-Min;Kim, Sung-Kyu
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.559-569
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    • 2001
  • Background : Pleural effusion is one of the most common clinical manifestations associated with a variety of pulmonary diseases such as malignancy, tuberculosis, and pneumonia. However, there are no useful laboratory tests to determine the specific cause of pleural effusion. Therefore, an attempt was made to analyze the various types of pleural effusion and search for useful laboratory tests for pleural effusion in order to differentiate between the diseases, especially between a malignant pleural effusion and a non-malignant pleural effusion. Methods : 93 patients with a pleural effusion, who visited the Severance hospital from January 1998 to August 1999, were enrolled in this study. Ultrasound-guided thoracentesis was done and a confirmational diagnosis was made by a gram stain, bacterial culture, Ziehl-Neelsen stain, a mycobacterial culture, a pleural biopsy and cytology. Results : The male to female ratio was 56 : 37 and the average age was $47.1{\pm}21.8$ years. There were 16 cases with a malignant effusion, 12 cases with a para-malignant effusion, 36 cases with tuberculosis, 22 cases with a para-pneumonic effusion, and 7 cases with transudate. The LDH2 fraction was significantly higher in the para-malignant effusion group compared to the para-pneumonic effusion group [$30.6{\pm}6.4%$ and $20.2{\pm}7.5%$, respectively (p<0.05)] and both the LDH1 and LDH2 fraction was significantly in the para-malignant effusion group compared to those with tuberculosis [$16.4{\pm}7.2%$ vs. $7.6{\pm}4.7%$, and $30.6{\pm}6.4%$ vs.$17.6{\pm}6.3%$, respectively (p<0.05)]. The pleural effusion/serum LDH4 fraction ratio was significantly lower in the malignant effusion group compared to those with tuberculosis [$1.5{\pm}0.8$ vs. $2.1{\pm}0.6$, respectively (p<0.05)]. The LDH4 fraction and the pleural effusion/serum LDH4 fraction ratio was significantly lower in the para-malignant effusion group compared to those with tuberculosis [$17.0{\pm}5.8%$ vs. $23.5{\pm}4.6%$ and $1.3{\pm}0.4$ vs. $2.1{\pm}0.6$, respectively (p<0.05)]. Conclusion : These results suggest that the LDH isoenzyme was the only useful biochemical test for a differential diagnosis of the various diseases. In particular, the most useful test was the pleural effusion/serum LDH4 fraction ratio to distinguish between a para-malignant effusion and a tuberculous effusion.

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Study for Diagnostic Efficacy of Minibronchoalveolar Lavage in the Detection of Etiologic Agents of Ventilator-associated Pneumonia in Patients Receiving Antibiotics (항생제를 사용하고 있었던 인공호흡기 연관 폐렴환자에서의 원인균 발견을 위한 소량 기관지폐포세척술의 진단적 효용성에 관한 연구)

  • Moon, Doo-Seop;Lim, Chae-Man;Pai, Chik-Hyun;Kim, Mi-Na;Chin, Jae-Yong;Shim, Tae-Sun;Lee, Sang-Do;Kim, Woo-Sung;Kim, Dong-Soon;Kim, Won-Dong;Koh, Youn-Suck
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.321-330
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    • 1999
  • Background : Early diagnosis and proper antibiotic treatment are very important in the management of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) because of its high mortality. Bronchoscopy with a protected specimen brush (PSB) has been considered the standard method to isolate the causative organisms of VAP. However, this method burdens consumer economically to purchase a PSB. Another useful method for the diagnosis of VAP is quantitative cultures of aspirated specimens through bronchoscopic bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), for which the infusion of more than 120 m1 of saline has been recommended for adequate sampling of a pulmonary segment. However, occasionally it leads to deterioration of the patient's condition. We studied the diagnostic efficacy of minibronchoalveolar lavage (miniBAL), which retrieves only 25 ml of BAL fluid, in the isolation of causative organisms of VAP. Methods: We included 38 consecutive patients (41 cases) suspected of having VAP on the basis of clinical evidence, who had received antibiotics before the bronchoscopy. The two diagnostic techniques of PSB and miniBAL, which were performed one after another at the same pulmonary segment, 'were compared prospectively. The cut-off values for quantitative cultures to define causative bacteria of VAP were more than $10^3$ colony-forming units (cfu)/ml for PSB and more than $10^4$ cfu/ml for BAL. Results: The amount of instilled normal saline required to retrieve 25 ml of BAL fluid was $93{\pm}32 ml$ (mean${\pm}$SD). The detection rate of causative agents was 46.3% (19/41) with PSB and 43.9% (18/41) with miniBAL. The concordance rate of PSB and miniBAL in the bacterial culture was 85.4% (35/41). Although arterial blood oxygen saturation dropped significantly (p<0.05) during ($92{\pm}10%$) and 10 min after ($95{\pm}3%$) miniBAL compared with the baseline ($97{\pm}3%$), all except 3 cases were within normal ranges. The significantly elevated heart rate during ($l25{\pm}24$/min, p<0.05) miniBAL compared with the baseline ($1l1{\pm}22$/min) recovered again in 10 min after ($111{\pm}26$/min) miniBAL. Transient hypotension was developed during the procedure in two cases. The procedure was stopped in one case due to atrial flutter. Conclusion: MiniBAL is a safe and effective technique to detect the causative organisms of VAP.

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Pulmonary Mycoses in Immunocompromised Hosts (면역기능저하 환자에서 폐진균증에 대한 임상적 고찰)

  • Suh, Gee-Young;Park, Sang-Joon;Kang, Kyeong-Woo;Koh, Young-Min;Kim, Tae-Sung;Chung, Man-Pyo;Kim, Ho-Joong;Han, Jong-Ho;Choi, Dong-Chull;Song, Jae-Hoon;Kwon, O-Jung;Rhee, Chong-H.
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.1199-1213
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    • 1998
  • Background : The number of immunocompromised hosts has been increasing steadily and a new pulmonary infiltrate in these patients is a potentially lethal condition which needs rapid diagnosis and treatment. In this study we sought to examine the clinical manifestations, radiologic findings, and therapeutic outcomes of pulmonary mycoses presenting as a new pulmonary infiltrate in immunocompromised hosts. Method : All cases presenting as a new pulmonary infiltrate in immunocompromised hosts and confirmed to be pulmonary mycoses by pathologic examination or by positive culture from a sterile site between October of 1996 and April of 1998 were included in the study and their chart and radiologic findings were retrospectively reviewed. Results : In all, 14 cases of pulmonary mycoses from 13 patients(male : female ratio = 8 : 5, median age 47 yr) were found. Twelve cases were diagnosed as aspergillosis while two were diagnosed as mucormycosis. Major risk factors for fungal infections were chemotherapy for hematologic malignancy(10 cases) and organ transplant recipients(4 cases). Three cases were receiving empirical amphotericin B at the time of appearance of new lung infiltrates. Cases in the hematologic malignancy group had more prominent symptoms : fever(9/10), cough(6/10), sputum(5/10), dyspnea(4/10), chest pain(5/10). Patients in the organ transplant group had minimal symptoms(p<0.05). On simple chest films, all of the cases presented as single or multiple nodules(6/14) or consolidations(8/14). High resolution computed tomograph showed peri-lesional ground glass opacities(14/14), pleural effusions(5/14), and cavitary changes(7/14). Definitive diagnostic methods were as follows : 10 cases underwent minithoracotomy, 2 underwent video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery, 1 underwent percutaneous needle aspiration and 1 case was diagnosed by culture of abscess fluid. All cases received treatment with amphotericin B with 1 case each being treated with liposomal amphotericin B and itraconazole due to renal toxicity. Lung lesion improved in 12 of 14 patient but 4 patients died before completing therapy. Conclusion : When a new lung infiltrate develops presenting either as a nodule or consolidation in a neutropenic patient with hematologic malignancy or in a transplant recipient, you should always consider pulmonary mycoses as one of the differential diagnosis. By performing aggressive work up and early treatment, we may improve prognosis of these patients.

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The Effect and Safety of Alveolar Recruitment Maneuver using Pressure-Controlled Ventilation in Acute Lung Injury and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (급성폐손상과 급성호흡곤란증후군 환자에서 압력조절환기법을 이용한 폐포모집술의 효과와 안정성)

  • Chung, Kyung Soo;Park, Byung Hoon;Shin, Sang Yun;Jeon, Han Ho;Park, Seon Cheol;Kang, Shin Myung;Park, Moo Suk;Han, Chang Hoon;Kim, Chong Ju;Lee, Sun Min;Kim, Se Kyu;Chang, Joon;Kim, Sung Kyu;Kim, Young Sam
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.63 no.5
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    • pp.423-429
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    • 2007
  • Background: Alveolar recruitment (RM) is one of the primary goals of respiratory care for an acute lung injury (ALI) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). The purposes of alveolar recruitment are an improvement in pulmonary gas exchange and the protection of atelectrauma. This study examined the effect and safety of the alveolar RM using pressure control ventilation (PCV) in early ALI and ARDS patients. Methods: Sixteen patients with early ALI and ARDS who underwent alveolar RM using PCV were enrolled in this study. The patients data were recorded at the baseline, and 20 minutes, and 60 minutes after alveolar RM, and on the next day after the maneuver. Alveolar RM was performed with an inspiratory pressure of $30cmH_2O$ and a PEEP of $20cmH_2O$ in a 2-minute PCV mode. The venous $O_2$ saturation, central venous pressure, blood pressure, pulse rate, $PaO_2/FiO_2$ ratio, PEEP, and chest X-ray findings were obtained before and after alveolar RM. Results: Of the 16 patients, 3 had extra-pulmonary ALI/ARDS and the remaining 13 had pulmonary ALI/ARDS. The mean PEEP was 11.3 mmHg, and the mean $PaO_2/FiO_2$ ratio was 130.3 before RM. The $PaO_2/FiO_2$ ratio increased by 45% after alveolar RM. The $PaO_2/FiO_2$ ratio reached a peak 60 minutes after alveolar RM. The Pa$CO_2$ increased by 51.9 mmHg after alveolar RM. The mean blood pressure was not affected by alveolar RM. There were no complications due to pressure injuries such as a pneumothorax, pneumomediastinum, and subcutaneous emphysema. Conclusion: In this study, alveolar RM using PCV improved the level of oxygenation in patients with an acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome. Moreover, there were no significant complications due to hemodynamic changes and pressure injuries. Therefore, alveolar RM using PCV can be applied easily and safely in clinical practice with lung protective strategy in early ALI and ARDS patients.

Effect of Short-term Nutrition Education Camp on Food and Nutrient Intakes of Obese Children (단기간 영양교육 캠프가 비만아동의 식품과 영양소 섭취에 미치는 영향)

  • Shin, Eun-Kyung;Lee, Jin-Hwa;Lee, Yeon-Kyung;Lee, Hye-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.34 no.7
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    • pp.987-999
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of short-term nutrition education camp on food and nutrient intakes of obese children. The subjects of the study were 30 obese children in Gumi city who have obesity index over $130\%$. The food consumption of the subjects was surveyed for three days before the camp, for eleven days during the first camp and for three days after the second camp, by food record method. The mean intakes of energy and carbohydrates in obese children were significantly decreased during and after the nutrition education camp, and that of vitamin C was significantly increased after the camp. The mean daily total food intake of the subjects was gradually decreased from 1646.4g before the camp to 1438.6g during the camp and 1412.66g after the camp. Energy and fat intake ratios from grains and milks were significantly decreased after the camp compared with that before the camp, and the energy intake ratio from grains, milks and eggs was significantly low during the camp. The protein intake ratios from grains, potatoes, vegetables and fishes were significantly increased after the camp. The calcium intake ratios from potatoes and milks were significantly increased during and after the camp, and the ratio from eggs was significantly decreased after the camp. The iron intake ratios from potatoes and fishes were significantly increased during and after the camp, and the ratio from grains was significantly low during the camp. The results of the study demonstrated that the short-term nutrition education program positively affected the overall food consumption and nutrients intakes of obese children.

An Intelligent Decision Support System for Selecting Promising Technologies for R&D based on Time-series Patent Analysis (R&D 기술 선정을 위한 시계열 특허 분석 기반 지능형 의사결정지원시스템)

  • Lee, Choongseok;Lee, Suk Joo;Choi, Byounggu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.79-96
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    • 2012
  • As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.

A Study on Differences of Contents and Tones of Arguments among Newspapers Using Text Mining Analysis (텍스트 마이닝을 활용한 신문사에 따른 내용 및 논조 차이점 분석)

  • Kam, Miah;Song, Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.53-77
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    • 2012
  • This study analyses the difference of contents and tones of arguments among three Korean major newspapers, the Kyunghyang Shinmoon, the HanKyoreh, and the Dong-A Ilbo. It is commonly accepted that newspapers in Korea explicitly deliver their own tone of arguments when they talk about some sensitive issues and topics. It could be controversial if readers of newspapers read the news without being aware of the type of tones of arguments because the contents and the tones of arguments can affect readers easily. Thus it is very desirable to have a new tool that can inform the readers of what tone of argument a newspaper has. This study presents the results of clustering and classification techniques as part of text mining analysis. We focus on six main subjects such as Culture, Politics, International, Editorial-opinion, Eco-business and National issues in newspapers, and attempt to identify differences and similarities among the newspapers. The basic unit of text mining analysis is a paragraph of news articles. This study uses a keyword-network analysis tool and visualizes relationships among keywords to make it easier to see the differences. Newspaper articles were gathered from KINDS, the Korean integrated news database system. KINDS preserves news articles of the Kyunghyang Shinmun, the HanKyoreh and the Dong-A Ilbo and these are open to the public. This study used these three Korean major newspapers from KINDS. About 3,030 articles from 2008 to 2012 were used. International, national issues and politics sections were gathered with some specific issues. The International section was collected with the keyword of 'Nuclear weapon of North Korea.' The National issues section was collected with the keyword of '4-major-river.' The Politics section was collected with the keyword of 'Tonghap-Jinbo Dang.' All of the articles from April 2012 to May 2012 of Eco-business, Culture and Editorial-opinion sections were also collected. All of the collected data were handled and edited into paragraphs. We got rid of stop-words using the Lucene Korean Module. We calculated keyword co-occurrence counts from the paired co-occurrence list of keywords in a paragraph. We made a co-occurrence matrix from the list. Once the co-occurrence matrix was built, we used the Cosine coefficient matrix as input for PFNet(Pathfinder Network). In order to analyze these three newspapers and find out the significant keywords in each paper, we analyzed the list of 10 highest frequency keywords and keyword-networks of 20 highest ranking frequency keywords to closely examine the relationships and show the detailed network map among keywords. We used NodeXL software to visualize the PFNet. After drawing all the networks, we compared the results with the classification results. Classification was firstly handled to identify how the tone of argument of a newspaper is different from others. Then, to analyze tones of arguments, all the paragraphs were divided into two types of tones, Positive tone and Negative tone. To identify and classify all of the tones of paragraphs and articles we had collected, supervised learning technique was used. The Na$\ddot{i}$ve Bayesian classifier algorithm provided in the MALLET package was used to classify all the paragraphs in articles. After classification, Precision, Recall and F-value were used to evaluate the results of classification. Based on the results of this study, three subjects such as Culture, Eco-business and Politics showed some differences in contents and tones of arguments among these three newspapers. In addition, for the National issues, tones of arguments on 4-major-rivers project were different from each other. It seems three newspapers have their own specific tone of argument in those sections. And keyword-networks showed different shapes with each other in the same period in the same section. It means that frequently appeared keywords in articles are different and their contents are comprised with different keywords. And the Positive-Negative classification showed the possibility of classifying newspapers' tones of arguments compared to others. These results indicate that the approach in this study is promising to be extended as a new tool to identify the different tones of arguments of newspapers.

Evaluating Reverse Logistics Networks with Centralized Centers : Hybrid Genetic Algorithm Approach (집중형센터를 가진 역물류네트워크 평가 : 혼합형 유전알고리즘 접근법)

  • Yun, YoungSu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.55-79
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we propose a hybrid genetic algorithm (HGA) approach to effectively solve the reverse logistics network with centralized centers (RLNCC). For the proposed HGA approach, genetic algorithm (GA) is used as a main algorithm. For implementing GA, a new bit-string representation scheme using 0 and 1 values is suggested, which can easily make initial population of GA. As genetic operators, the elitist strategy in enlarged sampling space developed by Gen and Chang (1997), a new two-point crossover operator, and a new random mutation operator are used for selection, crossover and mutation, respectively. For hybrid concept of GA, an iterative hill climbing method (IHCM) developed by Michalewicz (1994) is inserted into HGA search loop. The IHCM is one of local search techniques and precisely explores the space converged by GA search. The RLNCC is composed of collection centers, remanufacturing centers, redistribution centers, and secondary markets in reverse logistics networks. Of the centers and secondary markets, only one collection center, remanufacturing center, redistribution center, and secondary market should be opened in reverse logistics networks. Some assumptions are considered for effectively implementing the RLNCC The RLNCC is represented by a mixed integer programming (MIP) model using indexes, parameters and decision variables. The objective function of the MIP model is to minimize the total cost which is consisted of transportation cost, fixed cost, and handling cost. The transportation cost is obtained by transporting the returned products between each centers and secondary markets. The fixed cost is calculated by opening or closing decision at each center and secondary markets. That is, if there are three collection centers (the opening costs of collection center 1 2, and 3 are 10.5, 12.1, 8.9, respectively), and the collection center 1 is opened and the remainders are all closed, then the fixed cost is 10.5. The handling cost means the cost of treating the products returned from customers at each center and secondary markets which are opened at each RLNCC stage. The RLNCC is solved by the proposed HGA approach. In numerical experiment, the proposed HGA and a conventional competing approach is compared with each other using various measures of performance. For the conventional competing approach, the GA approach by Yun (2013) is used. The GA approach has not any local search technique such as the IHCM proposed the HGA approach. As measures of performance, CPU time, optimal solution, and optimal setting are used. Two types of the RLNCC with different numbers of customers, collection centers, remanufacturing centers, redistribution centers and secondary markets are presented for comparing the performances of the HGA and GA approaches. The MIP models using the two types of the RLNCC are programmed by Visual Basic Version 6.0, and the computer implementing environment is the IBM compatible PC with 3.06Ghz CPU speed and 1GB RAM on Windows XP. The parameters used in the HGA and GA approaches are that the total number of generations is 10,000, population size 20, crossover rate 0.5, mutation rate 0.1, and the search range for the IHCM is 2.0. Total 20 iterations are made for eliminating the randomness of the searches of the HGA and GA approaches. With performance comparisons, network representations by opening/closing decision, and convergence processes using two types of the RLNCCs, the experimental result shows that the HGA has significantly better performance in terms of the optimal solution than the GA, though the GA is slightly quicker than the HGA in terms of the CPU time. Finally, it has been proved that the proposed HGA approach is more efficient than conventional GA approach in two types of the RLNCC since the former has a GA search process as well as a local search process for additional search scheme, while the latter has a GA search process alone. For a future study, much more large-sized RLNCCs will be tested for robustness of our approach.

An Analysis on the Conditions for Successful Economic Sanctions on North Korea : Focusing on the Maritime Aspects of Economic Sanctions (대북경제제재의 효과성과 미래 발전 방향에 대한 고찰: 해상대북제재를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sang-Hoon
    • Strategy21
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    • s.46
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    • pp.239-276
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    • 2020
  • The failure of early economic sanctions aimed at hurting the overall economies of targeted states called for a more sophisticated design of economic sanctions. This paved way for the advent of 'smart sanctions,' which target the supporters of the regime instead of the public mass. Despite controversies over the effectiveness of economic sanctions as a coercive tool to change the behavior of a targeted state, the transformation from 'comprehensive sanctions' to 'smart sanctions' is gaining the status of a legitimate method to impose punishment on states that do not conform to international norms, the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction in this particular context of the paper. The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council proved that it can come to an accord on imposing economic sanctions over adopting resolutions on waging military war with targeted states. The North Korean nuclear issue has been the biggest security threat to countries in the region, even for China out of fear that further developments of nuclear weapons in North Korea might lead to a 'domino-effect,' leading to nuclear proliferation in the Northeast Asia region. Economic sanctions had been adopted by the UNSC as early as 2006 after the first North Korean nuclear test and has continually strengthened sanctions measures at each stage of North Korean weapons development. While dubious of the effectiveness of early sanctions on North Korea, recent sanctions that limit North Korea's exports of coal and imports of oil seem to have an impact on the regime, inducing Kim Jong-un to commit to peaceful talks since 2018. The purpose of this paper is to add a variable to the factors determining the success of economic sanctions on North Korea: preventing North Korea's evasion efforts by conducting illegal transshipments at sea. I first analyze the cause of recent success in the economic sanctions that led Kim Jong-un to engage in talks and add the maritime element to the argument. There are three conditions for the success of the sanctions regime, and they are: (1) smart sanctions, targeting commodities and support groups (elites) vital to regime survival., (2) China's faithful participation in the sanctions regime, and finally, (3) preventing North Korea's maritime evasion efforts.

A Study on Industries's Leading at the Stock Market in Korea - Gradual Diffusion of Information and Cross-Asset Return Predictability- (산업의 주식시장 선행성에 관한 실증분석 - 자산간 수익률 예측 가능성 -)

  • Kim Jong-Kwon
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.355-380
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    • 2004
  • I test the hypothesis that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability in Korea. Using thirty-six industry portfolios and the broad market index as our test assets, I establish several key results. First, a number of industries such as semiconductor, electronics, metal, and petroleum lead the stock market by up to one month. In contrast, the market, which is widely followed, only leads a few industries. Importantly, an industry's ability to lead the market is correlated with its propensity to forecast various indicators of economic activity such as industrial production growth. Consistent with our hypothesis, these findings indicate that the market reacts with a delay to information in industry returns about its fundamentals because information diffuses only gradually across asset markets. Traditional theories of asset pricing assume that investors have unlimited information-processing capacity. However, this assumption does not hold for many traders, even the most sophisticated ones. Many economists recognize that investors are better characterized as being only boundedly rational(see Shiller(2000), Sims(2201)). Even from casual observation, few traders can pay attention to all sources of information much less understand their impact on the prices of assets that they trade. Indeed, a large literature in psychology documents the extent to which even attention is a precious cognitive resource(see, eg., Kahneman(1973), Nisbett and Ross(1980), Fiske and Taylor(1991)). A number of papers have explored the implications of limited information- processing capacity for asset prices. I will review this literature in Section II. For instance, Merton(1987) develops a static model of multiple stocks in which investors only have information about a limited number of stocks and only trade those that they have information about. Related models of limited market participation include brennan(1975) and Allen and Gale(1994). As a result, stocks that are less recognized by investors have a smaller investor base(neglected stocks) and trade at a greater discount because of limited risk sharing. More recently, Hong and Stein(1999) develop a dynamic model of a single asset in which information gradually diffuses across the investment public and investors are unable to perform the rational expectations trick of extracting information from prices. Hong and Stein(1999). My hypothesis is that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability. This hypothesis relies on two key assumptions. The first is that valuable information that originates in one asset reaches investors in other markets only with a lag, i.e. news travels slowly across markets. The second assumption is that because of limited information-processing capacity, many (though not necessarily all) investors may not pay attention or be able to extract the information from the asset prices of markets that they do not participate in. These two assumptions taken together leads to cross-asset return predictability. My hypothesis would appear to be a very plausible one for a few reasons. To begin with, as pointed out by Merton(1987) and the subsequent literature on segmented markets and limited market participation, few investors trade all assets. Put another way, limited participation is a pervasive feature of financial markets. Indeed, even among equity money managers, there is specialization along industries such as sector or market timing funds. Some reasons for this limited market participation include tax, regulatory or liquidity constraints. More plausibly, investors have to specialize because they have their hands full trying to understand the markets that they do participate in

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