• IE interfaces
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.190-197
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• 2001

Growth curves including Logistic and Gompertz functions are widely used in forecasting the market demand. To estimated the parameters of those functions, we use the non-linear least square method. However, it is difficult to set up the starting points for each parameter. If a wrong starting point is selected, the result reveals the local optimum or does not converge to a certain value. The purpose of this paper is to resolve the problem of selecting a starting point. Especially, rescaling the market data using the national economic index make it possible to figure out the range of parameters and to utilize the grid search method. Applications to some real data are also included.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.331-359
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• 2009

We forecast the performance of the Korean biotechnology industry by adopting similar development paths taken by the U.S. biotechnology and Korean ICT industries. Our long-term forecasting techniques predict that Korean BT market size will increase from 3.7 billion to 10.8 billion U.S. dollars by year 2030. The pharmaceutical industry, one of major bio-subindustries, is expected to dominate Korean BT market in the long-run. Also, the relative portion of the exports in the Korean BT industry will be larger and thus the export-oriented government policy is required for the long-run growth of the Korean BT industry. Since the Korean ICT industry has already slowed down in the development, Korean BT industry is likely to catch up with ICT industry in the near future.

• Korean Journal of Child Studies
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.69-85
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• 2009

The purpose of this study was to identify developmental trajectories of externalizing problems in preschoolers and to investigate dimensions of temperament and parental behaviors associated with trajectory groups. Subjects were 180 3- to 5-year-old preschoolers (96 males, 84 females) in the metropolitan area of Seoul. They were assessed three times at 5 month intervals over a one year period. Teachers reported on children's behavior problems, and parents reported on children's temperaments. Latent Growth Curve Modeling Analysis with cohort sequential design revealed externalizing behaviors gradually decreased between 3 and 6. At the 6-year-old level externalizing behaviors were associated with high novelty seeking temperament. The results were discussed in terms of the importance of longitudinal research in developmental psychopathology.

• Journal of Science Education
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.1-11
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• 2010

This study analyzes the factors influencing academic achievement on mathematic and scientific subject and its change in Korean youth by using a sample from KYPS(Korea Youth Panel Survey) data. The results are as follows: First, academic achievement on mathematic and scientific subject of Korean youth shows quadratic curve that their interrelationship between intercept and slope of academic achievement are negative which is statistically significant. Second, analysis of Latent Growth Models shows that parents, teacher, peer group, self esteem, income of family, high school tracks are found to be a statistically significant factor on mathematic. And scientific subject is affected by parents, teacher, peer group, self esteem, income of family, high school tracks. Also, Interesting finding is that father's job is not significant to dependent variables. These findings show that academic achievement on mathematic and scientific subject of the Korean youth are the quadratic curve and influenced by parents, teacher, peer group, self esteem, income of family, high school tracks. To improve youth's mathematic and scientific, Korea educational fields and educators should have policy to care youth's relationship with parents, teachers and self esteem.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.14 no.spc
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• pp.1232-1255
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• 2011

This paper proposes a model for demand forecasting that will require less effort in the process of utilizing the new product diffusion model while also allowing for more objective and timely application. Drawing upon the theoretical foundation provided by the hype cycle model and the consumer adoption model, this proposed model makes it possible to estimate the maximum market potential based solely on bibliometrics and the scale of the early market, thereby presenting a method for supplying the major parameters required for the Bass model. Upon analyzing the forecasting ability of this model by applying it to the case of the hybrid car market, the model was confirmed to be capable of successfully forecasting results similar in scale to the market potential deduced through various other objective sources of information, thus underscoring the potentials of utilizing this model. Moreover, even the hype cycle or the life cycle can be estimated through direct linkage with bibliometrics and the Bass model. In cases where the hype cycles of other models have been observed, the forecasting ability of this model was demonstrated through simple case studies. Since this proposed model yields a maximum market potential that can also be applied directly to other growth curve models, the model presented in the following paper provides new directions in the endeavor to forecast technology diffusion and identify promising technologies through bibliometrics.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.38 no.9 s.158
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• pp.771-778
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• 2005

In this study, flow duration analysis was conducted at the Gumbo stage gauging station due to construction of the Youngchun dam. The flow duration characteristics were $10.49\;m^3/s$ of drought flow, $13.30\;m^3/s$. of low flow, $15.65\;m^3/s$ of normal flow, and $25.00\;m^3/s$ abundant flow before construction of Youngchun dam. But after construction of Youngchun dam, the flow duration characteristics were $2.07\;m^^3/s,\;2.89\;m^3/s,\;4.0\;m^3/s,\;9.36\;m^3/s$ and they had been deteriorated. Applying the Physical Habitat Simulation Model by Instream Flow Incremental Methodology, the Weighted Usable Area(WUA)-Discharge Curve was developed for Zacco Platypus according to the growth stages. Using the WUA-Discharge Curve, the WUA Duration Curve was developed with exceedance probability of daily flow and evaluated fish habitat conditions due to the construction of Youngchun dam. As an evaluation result, the WUA was reduced and fish habitat environment was deteriorated due to the construction of Youngchun dam during the spawning and growth period of Zacco Platypus. However the exceedence probability of the $90\;\%$, irrigation water supply from the Youngchun dam improved flow duration characteristics and Weighted Usable Area as well as fish habitat.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.31-39
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• 2014

It has been a long time since cars had become important means of transportation in human life. Since 1970s, cars have been increasing steadily because of rising individual income and changing lifestyle toward leisure and convenience. The number of cars is just 1.8 per thousand populations in 1970s, however, in 2012, it has increased to 291.15. Forecasting the demand for cars would be useful to plan, construction or management in the field of motor industry, road building and establishing facilities. Our study predicts the demand of cars through estimating the growth curve model. Especially, we include ageing variables to forecasting identifying the effect of ageing on the demand of cars. The main findings are as follows. In 2045, the number of cars is expected to reach 486.8 per thousand populations with passing a primary saturation point at early 2020s. Also, due to effect of ageing, the predicted demand of cars is about 10% lower than in case of which if ageing effect not exist.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.20-27
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• 2019

In this study, a new function with higher accuracy for fire heat release rate prediction was developed. The 'αt²' curve, which is the major exponential function currently used for fire engineering calculations, must be improved to minimize the prediction gap that causes fire system engineering inefficiency and lower cost-effectiveness. The newly developed prediction function was designed to cover the initial fire stage that features rapid growth based on logistic function theory, which has a more logical background and graphical similarity compared to conventional exponential function methods for 'αt²'. The new function developed in this study showed apparently higher prediction accuracy over wider range of fire growth durations. With the progress of fire growth pattern studies, the results presented herein will contribute towards more effective fire protection engineering.

• IE interfaces
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.103-110
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• 2003

Growth curves are widely used in forecasting the market demand. When there are only a few data points available, the estimated model parameters have a low confidence. In this case, if some expert opinions are available, it would be better for predicting future demand to adjust the model parameters using these information. This paper proposes the methodology for re-estimation of model parameters in growth curves when adjusting market potential and/or time of maximum sales. We also provide the detailed procedures for five growth curves including Bass, Logistic, Gompertz, Weibull and Cumulative Lognormal models. Applications to real data are also included.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.428-428
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• 2018

지역빈도해석은 대상 지점의 관측자료만을 사용하는 지점빈도해석과 달리 지역구분을 통해 정의된 동질지역 내에 포함된 모든 지점의 자료를 사용하여 보다 정확하고 신뢰할 수 있는 확률수문량을 산정할 수 있는 방법이다. 지역빈도해석의 절차는 크게 지역구분인자를 이용한 동질지역구분과 홍수지수모형의 적용을 통한 확률강우량 산정으로 나눌 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 지역구분에 사용되는 지역구분인자가 지역빈도해석의 확률강우량 산정에 미치는 영향을 알아보기 위하여 지역구분인자와 확률강우량 산정결과와의 상관성을 분석하고자 한다. 먼저, 동질지역 구분을 위해 지형적 특성과 수문학적 특성을 나타내는 지역구분인자를 선정하였으며, 군집분석을 통해 동질지역 구분을 수행하였다. 구분된 동질지역에 대해 지역성장곡선을 추정하고 홍수지수모형을 통해 지점별 확률강우량을 산정하였다. 지역빈도해석을 통해 산정된 확률강우량의 지점빈도해석 대비 증감률과 동질지역구분에 사용된 지역구분인자와의 상관성분석을 통해 지역빈도해석의 확률강우량 산정에 영향을 주는 지역구분인자를 확인하였다.