• Title/Summary/Keyword: 선형예측이론

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Determination of the Optimized Structure of Self-Organizing Map for the Rainfall-Runoff Analysis in Naju (나주지점의 강우-유출 해석을 위한 최적의 SOM 구조 결정)

  • Kim, Yong-Gu;Jin, Young-Hoon;Park, Sung-Chun;Jeong, Choen-Lee
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.10
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    • pp.995-1007
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    • 2008
  • Studies on modeling the rainfall-runoff relationship which shows nonlinear trend strongly use artificial neural networks theory not only for the prediction but also for the characteristics analysis of the data used by pattern classification. For the pattern classification, the results from Self-Organizing Map (SOM) mention that the map size and array for the SOM training have significantly influenced on the SOM performance. Since there is no deterministic method or theoretical equation to determine the number of rows and columns for the map size, hexagonal array is generally used for the map array. Therefore, this study present a determination of the optimized map structure for the rainfall-runoff analysis in Naju station considering the map size and array simultaneously which can represent the classified characterization of rainfall-runoff relationship. The result showed that the map size of 20$\times$16 hexagonal array with 8-clustered patterns was selected as an appropriate map structure for rainfall-runoff analysis in Naju station.

Drivers Detour Decision Factor Analysis with Combined Method of Decision Tree and Neural Network Algorithm (의사결정나무와 신경망 모형 결합에 의한 운전자 우회결정요인 분석)

  • Kang, Jin-Woong;Kum, Ki-Jung;Son, Seung-Neo
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.167-176
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    • 2011
  • This study's purpose is to analyse factors of determination about detouring for makinga standard model in regard of unfavorableness and uncertainty when unspecified individual recipients make a decision at the time of course detour. In order to achieve this, we surveyed SP investigation whether making a detour or not for drivers as a target who take a high way and National highway. Based on this result, we analysed detour determination factors of drivers, establishing a combination model of Decision Tree and Neural Network model. The result demonstrates the effected factors on drivers' detour determination are in ordering of the recognition of alternative routevs, reliable and frequency of using traffic information, frequency of transition routes and age. Moreover, from the outcome in comparison with an existing model and prediction through undistributed data, the rate of combination model 8.7% illustrates the most predictable way in contrast with logit model 12.8%, and Individual Model of Decision Tree 13.8% which are existed. This reveals that the analysis of drivers' detour determination factors is valid to apply. Hence, overall study considers as a practical foundation to make effective detour strategies for increasing the utility of route networking and dispersion in the volume of traffic from now on.

Numerical Analysis of Multi-dimensional Consolidation Based on Non-Linear Model (비선형 모델에 의한 다차원 압밀의 수치해석)

  • Jeong, Jin-Seop;Gang, Byeong-Seon;Nam, Gung-Mun
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.59-72
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    • 1985
  • This paper deals with the numerical analysis by the (mite element method introducing Biot's theory of consolidation and the modified Cambridge model proposed by Roscoe school of Cambridge University as constitutive equation and using Christian-Boehner's technique. Especially, time interval and division of elements are investigated in vies of stability and economics. In order to check the validity of author's program, the program was tested with one-dimensional consolidation case followed by Terzaghi's exact solution and with the results of the Magnan's analysis for existing banking carried out for study at Cubzac-les-ports in France. The main conclusions obtained are summarized as follows: 1. In the case of one-dimensional consolidation, the more divided the elements are near the surface of the foundation, the higher the accuracy of the numerical analysis is. 2. For the time interval, it is stable to divide 20 times per 1-lg cycle. 3. At the element which has long drain distance, the Mandel-fryer effect appears due to time lag. 4. Lateral displacement at an initial loading stage predicted by author's program, in which the load was assumed as not concentrative. but rather in grid form, is well consistent with the value of observation. 5. The pore water pressure predicted by author's program has a better accordance with the value of observation compared with Magnan's results. 6. Optimum construction control by Matsuo-Kawamura's method is possible with the predicted lateral displacement and settlement by the program.

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Shear Behavior of Reinforced Concrete Beams according to Replacement Ratio of Recycled Coarse Aggregate (순환 굵은골재 치환율에 따른 철근콘크리트 보의 전단거동)

  • Kim, Sang-Woo;Jeong, Chan-Yu;Jung, Chang-Kyo;Kim, Kil-Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.157-164
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    • 2012
  • This study evaluates the shear performance of reinforced concrete beams with recycled coarse aggregates. A total of six specimens with various replacement ratios of recycled coarse aggregates (0%, 50%, and 100%) and different amount of shear reinforcement were cast and tested in this study. A finite element analysis was performed to predict the shear behavior of the specimens with natural or recycled coarse aggregates. The FE analysis was performed using a two-dimensional nonlinear FE analysis program based on the disturbed stress field model (DSFM), which is an extension of the modified compression field theory (MCFT). Experimental results showed that the specimens with 50% and 100% replacement ratios of recycled coarse aggregates had the similar shear strength compared to the specimen with natural aggregates, regardless of the replacement ratios of recycled coarse aggregates and the amount of the shear reinforcement. Furthermore, the comparison between experimental and analytical results showed that the proposed numerical modeling methods and the analytical model, DSFM, can be successfully used to predict the shear behavior of reinforced concrete beams with recycled coarse aggregates.

A study on the predictability of acoustic power distribution of English speech for English academic achievement in a Science Academy (과학영재학교 재학생 영어발화 주파수 대역별 음향 에너지 분포의 영어 성취도 예측성 연구)

  • Park, Soon;Ahn, Hyunkee
    • Phonetics and Speech Sciences
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.41-49
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    • 2022
  • The average acoustic distribution of American English speakers was statistically compared with the English-speaking patterns of gifted students in a Science Academy in Korea. By analyzing speech recordings, the duration time of which is much longer than in previous studies, this research identified the degree of acoustic proximity between the two parties and the predictability of English academic achievement of gifted high school students. Long-term spectral acoustic power distribution vectors were obtained for 2,048 center frequencies in the range of 20 Hz to 20,000 Hz by applying an long-term average speech spectrum (LTASS) MATLAB code. Three more variables were statistically compared to discover additional indices that can predict future English academic achievement: the receptive vocabulary size test, the cumulative vocabulary scores of English formative assessment, and the English Speaking Proficiency Test scores. Linear regression and correlational analyses between the four variables showed that the receptive vocabulary size test and the low-frequency vocabulary formative assessments which require both lexical and domain-specific science background knowledge are relatively more significant variables than a basic suprasegmental level English fluency in the predictability of gifted students' academic achievement.

Analysis of Girders with Web Opening (유공복부(有孔腹部)를 가진 거더의 해석(解析))

  • Yang, Chang Hyun;Chung, Won Ki
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.75-86
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    • 1985
  • A beam with web opening may reduce the cost of steel and the height of multistory steel buildings. Bower's analysis based on the theory of elasticity and Vierendeel analysis had evaluated the normal stresses around the holes, but these analyses have difficulties for practical uses because of complexity and the limitation for their application. In this study, it is shown that the finite element method, using smaller number of isoparametric elements by taking only a part of the beam which includes the hole, can diminish defects of the above two methods and it may represent more satisfactorily the distribution of the local stress concentration around the hole than the other methods which employed linear elements such as in the analysis by Samuel or Redwood. This study presents the effects of moments, shears, and eccentricities of a hole on the distribution of the normal stresses calculated by using the proposed finite element method. Consequently, it is found that the variations of shear force and hole depth give significant effects on the normal stresses around a hole, while the variations of eccentricities of the hole provide a little effect on them. The regression coefficients resulted from the multiple linear regression may be used for estimating the normal stresses around any arbitrary hole in the web of a beam, since the normal stresses guessed by this regression coefficient equation match well the results by the finite element method except the case of large eccentricity.

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A Relief Method to Obtain the Solution of Optimal Problems (최적화문제를 해결하기 위한 완화(Relief)법)

  • Song, Jeong-Young;Lee, Kyu-Beom;Jang, Jigeul
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.155-161
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    • 2020
  • In general, optimization problems are difficult to solve simply. The reason is that the given problem is solved as soon as it is simple, but the more complex it is, the very large number of cases. This study is about the optimization of AI neural network. What we are dealing with here is the relief method for constructing AI network. The main topics deal with non-deterministic issues such as the stability and unstability of the overall network state, cost down and energy down. For this one, we discuss associative memory models, that is, a method in which local minimum memory information does not select fake information. The simulated annealing, this is a method of estimating the direction with the lowest possible value and combining it with the previous one to modify it to a lower value. And nonlinear planning problems, it is a method of checking and correcting the input / output by applying the appropriate gradient descent method to minimize the very large number of objective functions. This research suggests a useful approach to relief method as a theoretical approach to solving optimization problems. Therefore, this research will be a good proposal to apply efficiently when constructing a new AI neural network.

Roles of B-dot Controller and Failure Analysis for Dawn-dusk LEO Satellite (6시 저궤도 위성에서 B-dot 제어기 역할과 고장분석)

  • Rhee, Seung-Wu;Kim, Hong-Joong;Son, Jun-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.200-209
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, the types of B-dot controller and the review results of B-dot controller stability are summarized. Also, it is confirmed that B-dot controller is very useful and essential tool when a dawn-dusk low earth orbit(LEO) large satellite has especially to capture the Sun for a required power supply in a reliable way after anomaly and that its algorithm is very simple for on-board implementation. New physical interpretation of B-dot controller is presented as a result of extensive theoretical investigation introducing the concept of transient control torque and steady state control torque. Also, the failure effect analysis results of magnetic torquers as well as a simulation verification are included. And the design recommendation for optimal design is provided to cope with the failure of magnetic torquer. Nonlinear simulation results are included to justify its capability as well as its performance for an application to a dawn-dusk LEO large satellite.

Multiscale Modeling and Simulation of Direct Methanol Fuel Cell (직접메탄올 연료전지의 Multiscale 모델링 및 전산모사)

  • Kim, Min-Su;Lee, Young-Hee;Kim, Jung-Hwan;Kim, Hong-Sung;Lim, Tae-Hoon;Moon, Il
    • Membrane Journal
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.29-39
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    • 2010
  • This study focuses on the modeling of DMFC to predict the characteristics and to improve its performance. This modeling requires deep understanding of the design and operating parameters that influence on the cell potential. Furthermore, the knowledge with reference to electrochemistry, transport phenomena and fluid dynamics should be employed for the duration of mathematical description of the given process. Considering the fact that MEA is the nucleus of DMFC, special attention was made to the development of mathematical model of MEA. Multiscale modeling is comprised of process modeling as well as a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling. The CFD packages and process simulation tools are used in simulating the steady-state process. The process simulation tool calculates theelectrochemical kinetics as well as the change of fractions, and at the same time, CFD calculates various balance equations. The integrated simulation with multiscal modeling explains experimental observations of transparent DMFC.

Quantifying Uncertainty for the Water Balance Analysis (물수지 분석을 위한 불확실성 정량화)

  • Lee, Seung-Uk;Kim, Young-Oh;Lee, Dong-Ryul
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.4 s.153
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    • pp.281-292
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    • 2005
  • The water balance analysis for the long-term water resources plan is a simple calculation that compares water demands with possible water supplies. For a watershed being considered the reports on the performance of the water balance analysis, however, have shown inconsistent results and thus have not earned credibility due to the uncertainty of the data acquired and models used. In this research, uncertainties in the water scarcity estimate were assessed through probability representation based on the Monte Carlo simulation using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). The natural flow, municipal demand, industrial demand, agricultural demand, and return flow rate were selected as representative input variables for the water balance analysis, and their distributions were set based on the linear regression and the entropy theory. The statistical properties of the output variable samples were analyzed in comparison with a deterministic estimate of the water scarcity of an existing study. Application of LHS to three sub-basins of the Geum river basin showed the deterministic estimate could be overestimated or underestimated. The sensitivity analysis as well as the uncertainty analysis found that the return flow rate of the agricultural water is the most uncertain but is rarely sensitive to the output of the water balance analysis.