• Title/Summary/Keyword: 생존 확률

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A Longitudinal Look at Economically Active Population Survey and Household Income and Expenditure Survey: Potential and Limitation (횡단조사자료 종단화의 가치와 한계: 경제활동인구조사와 도시가계조사)

  • Lee, Ji-Youn;Kim, Jin
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.159-188
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    • 2006
  • This study attempts to create a longitudinal dataset by linking tdata on the identical individuals across the monthly sample household management lists of the Economically Active Population Survey(EAPS) and the Household Income and Expenditure Survey(HIES). Using the data constructed through such process, the study also tryies to analyze the duration of longitudinal responses and the characteristics of nonrespondents. Between 1998 and 2002, longitudinal response rates had declined to 46% of total EAPS and 34% of total HIES. The fact that nonresponse was not a random phenomenon leads to concerns about the representativeness of the remaining sample. Using Cox's proportional hazard model the study revealed that the duration of longitudinal responses is affected by the ownership of house and the age of the respondent.

Analysis of Loan Comparison Platform User's Default Risk (대출중개 플랫폼별 고객의 채무불이행 리스크 비교)

  • SeongWoo Lee;Yeonkook J. Kim
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.119-131
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    • 2024
  • In recent years, there has been a significant growth in loan comparson services offered by fintech platforms in South Korea. However, it has been reported that loan comparison platform users tend to have a higher risk of default compared to non-users. This paper investigates the difference in platform-specific credit risk factors using survival analysis models - Kaplan-Meier curves and Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model. Our findings show that, relative to non-users, users of loan comparison platforms are characterized by elevated default rates, a greater propensity for home ownership, lower credit scores, and shorter loan durations. Furthermore, our AFT models elucidate the variance in default risk among the various loan comparison service platforms, highlighting the imperative for customized strategies that address the unique risk profiles of customers on each platform.

The survival rate of fish discarded from trawler (트롤 어선에서 어획후 투기된 어류의 생존율)

  • 안희춘;양용수;박창두;조삼광;박해훈;정의철
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.87-91
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    • 2003
  • Experimental fishing was carried out to investigate the survival rate of fishes discarded after hauling from the trawl and to develop the fishing gear and method for fisheries management which can improve the survival rate of young fishes escaped from the trawl codend in offshore korean southern sea and off Cheju Island of Korea. The young fishes were bred in fish cage on the board to measure the sustainable survival time for fishes escaped from grid panel and codend. The obtained results are summarized as follows' 1. Japanese flying squid(Todarodes pacjficus), mitra squid(Loligo chinesis), hair-tail( Trichiurus lepturus), john dory(Zeus japonicus), spanish mackerel(Scomberomorus niphonius), redlip croaker (Pseudosciaena polyactis) and blackthroat seaperch(Doederliinia berycoides) were dead instantly after hauling. 2. Survival rate of tiger shark(Galeocerdo cuvier), conger eel (Conger myriaster), red skate (Dasyatis akajei), black scraper(Navodon modestus) and japanese fan lobster(Ibacus ciliatus) might be high after discarding because they survived for long hours in fish cage. 3. Blotched eelpout(Zoarces gili) escaped from the escapement device(grid) was dead within 6 hours in the water tank installed on the board but 97% of tiger shark and 72% of conger eel survived over 72 hours. 4. Red skate escaped from trawl codend was dead within 60 hours in the water tank installed on the board but sustainable survival time of 25% of octopus(Paroctopus dofleini) and 100% of black scraper was over 72 hours. 5. Compared with the survival rate of rosefish(Helicolenus higendorfi) escaped from the escapement device(grid) and trawl codend, all of the rosefish escaped from the grid was dead within 7.2 hours but 8.3% of the rosefish escaped from the codend survived over 72 hours. 6. In comparison with the survival rate of japanese fan lobster survived over 72 hours, survival rate of japanese fan lobster escaped the codend was much higher as 75% than 33% of japanese fan lobster escaped from the grid.

A Simple Stereo Matching Algorithm using PBIL and its Alternative (PBIL을 이용한 소형 스테레오 정합 및 대안 알고리즘)

  • Han Kyu-Phil
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.12B no.4 s.100
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    • pp.429-436
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    • 2005
  • A simple stereo matching algorithm using population-based incremental learning(PBIL) is proposed in this paper to decrease the general problem of genetic algorithms, such as memory consumption and inefficiency of search. PBIL is a variation of genetic algorithms using stochastic search and competitive teaming based on a probability vector. The structure of PBIL is simpler than that of other genetic algorithm families, such as serial and parallel ones, due to the use of a probability vector. The PBIL strategy is simplified and adapted for stereo matching circumstances. Thus, gene pool, chromosome crossover, and gene mutation we removed, while the evolution rule, that fitter chromosomes should have higher survival probabilities, is preserved. As a result, memory space is decreased, matching rules are simplified and computation cost is reduced. In addition, a scheme controlling the distance of neighbors for disparity smoothness is inserted to obtain a wide-area consistency of disparities, like a result of coarse-to-fine matchers. Because of this scheme, the proposed algorithm can produce a stable disparity map with a small fixed-size window. Finally, an alterative version of the proposed algorithm without using probability vector is also presented for simpler set-ups.

Two-Layer Approach Using FTA and BBN for Reliability Analysis of Combat Systems (전투 시스템의 신뢰성 분석을 위한 FTA와 BBN을 이용한 2계층 접근에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Ji-Won;Lee, Jang-Se
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.333-340
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    • 2019
  • A combat system performs a given mission enduring various threats. It is important to analyze the reliability of combat systems in order to increase their ability to perform a given mission. Most of studies considered no threat or on threat and didn't analyze all the dependent relationships among the components. In this paper, we analyze the loss probability of the function of the combat system and use it to analyze the reliability. The proposed method is divided into two layers, A lower layer and a upper layer. In lower layer, the failure probability of each components is derived by using FTA to consider various threats. In the upper layer, The loss probability of function is analyzed using the failure probability of the component derived from lower layer and BBN in order to consider the dependent relationships among the components. Using the proposed method, it is possible to analyze considering various threats and the dependency between components.

Study on the determinants of employment duration in the youth-intern project (중소기업 청년인턴 취업자의 재직기간 분석)

  • Park, Sungik;Ryu, Jangsoo;Kim, Jonghan;Cho, Jangsik
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.285-294
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    • 2016
  • In general, employment duration is influenced by the individual characteristics (level-1) as well as type of the occupational characteristics (level-2). That is, the data has hierarchical structure in the sense that individual employment duration is influenced by the individual-level variables (level-1) and the job-level (level-2) variables. In this paper, we study the determinants of the employment duration of youth-intern in the SMEs (small and medium enterprises) using Cox's mixed effect model. Major results at level-1 variables are as followings. First, the hazard rate of treatment group is lower than that of control group. Second, the hazard rate of woman is lower than that of man. Also, the hazard rate is lower, for the older and the workers working in the bigger company. Investigation of level-2 variables has shown that random effect for job-level is statistically significant.

Survival Analysis on Employment Rate and Employment Retention Rate of Unemployed Vocational Trainees (실업자 직업훈련생의 취업률과 고용유지율에 관한 생존분석)

  • Jeong, Sun Jeong
    • Journal of vocational education research
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.39-63
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study was to identify the factors affecting the actual employment rate and job retention rate after completion of the training program the unemployed. Survival analysis was conducted by utilizing employment insurance status and subscription data over two years of 840 patients who finally completed a training course from 889 patients in response to survey about the training service quality in 2012. The finding of the study were as follows. First, the highest employment rate (36.8%) after the completion time was within three months, a period more than 50% of the trainees were employed within six months. While employment continued to occur even with the lapse of one year and two years after the completion point, the employment rate over time was found to decrease gradually. Second, the factors affecting employment rate after completing training, appeared teaching competency(-) among training service quality and potential employability(+), which low awareness of teaching capacity and high awareness potential employability increased the possibility of their employment. Third, the highest periods (each 22.0%, 22.3%) of employment loss rate were within three months and within three to six months, and more than 50% of the trainees have lost their unemployment insurance were less than 8.8 months. Fourth, the factors affecting job retention rates after employment, appeared relationship between teachers and students(+), a fellow student relationships(+) among training service quality and training satisfaction(+), which high awareness of teacher-student relationships, fellow student relationships and training satisfaction increased the possibility of their maintaining employment.

Longevity Bond Pricing by a Cohort-based Stochastic Mortality (코호트 사망률을 이용한 장수채권 가격산출)

  • Jho, Jae Hoon;Lee, Kangsoo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.703-719
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    • 2015
  • We propose an extension of the Lee and Jho (2015) mean reverting the two factor mortality model by incorporating a period-specific cohort effect. We found that the consideration of cohort effect improves the mortality fit of Korea male data above age 65. Parameters are estimated by the weighted least squares method and Metropolis algorithm. We also emphasize that the cohort effect is necessary to choose the base survival index to calculate longevity bond issue price. A key contribution of the article is the proposal and development of a method to calculate the longevity bond price to hedge the longevity risk exposed to Korea National Pension Services.

Analysis of Factory Automation Based on the Stochastic Simulation (확률적 시뮬레이션을 이용한 공장자동화의 도입 효과 분석)

  • 박영홍
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Industrial Systems Conference
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    • 1999.12a
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    • pp.739-745
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    • 1999
  • This paper forcuses on the measurement of increased work efficiency expected from the factory automation through random interactions of the organizational behavioral factors whose attributes can be changed with the implementation of the factory automations. Specifically the work reported here is concerned with modeling and analyzing the random interrelationships among the organizational behavioral factory which factory automation will have impact on throughout the time horizon of its implementation in terms of productivity. In addition, it is also concerned with developing a stochastic continuous simulation model to be used to assess the impact of factory automations.

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Applying Discrete-Time Survival Analysis to Testing the Determinants on the Onset of Adolescents' Violence Behavior (비연속시간 생존분석을 적용한 청소년의 최초 폭력 발생시점에 대한 영향요인 검증)

  • No, Un-Kyung;Hong, Se-Hee
    • Survey Research
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.81-101
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    • 2010
  • The purposes of the present study were to investigate the effects of individual, family, and school factors on the onset of adolescents' violence behaviors. For these goals, we applied discrete-time survival analysis to the Korean Youth Panel Survey. According to the estimated hazard function, the likelihood of onset of adolescents' violence behavior was low during elementary school years and increasing sharply from middle school years. Results showed that gender, self-esteem, aggressiveness, broken home, parental abuse, and the number of delinquent friends were significant determinants of the onset of adolescents' violence behaviors. Findings from this study suggest the need to focus on the significant determinants and consider various prevention programs.

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