• Title/Summary/Keyword: 상태공간모형

Search Result 252, Processing Time 0.033 seconds

Multi-step Ahead Link Travel Time Prediction using Data Fusion (데이터융합기술을 활용한 다주기 통행시간예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Young-Ihn;Kim, Sung-Hyun;Yoon, Ji-Hyeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.23 no.4 s.82
    • /
    • pp.71-79
    • /
    • 2005
  • Existing arterial link travel time estimation methods relying on either aggregate point-based or individual section-based traffic data have their inherent limitations. This paper demonstrates the utility of data fusion for improving arterial link travel time estimation. If the data describe traffic conditions, an operator wants to know whether the situations are going better or worse. In addition, some traffic information providing strategies require predictions of what would be the values of traffic variables during the next time period. In such situations, it is necessary to use a prediction algorithm in order to extract the average trends in traffic data or make short-term predictions of the control variables. In this research. a multi-step ahead prediction algorithm using Data fusion was developed to predict a link travel time. The algorithm performance were tested in terms of performance measures such as MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MARE(mean absolute relative error), RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), EC(equality coefficient). The performance of the proposed algorithm was superior to the current one-step ahead prediction algorithm.

Analysis of Seawater Intake System using the RNG k-𝜖 Algorithm (RNG k-𝜖 알고리즘을 이용한 해수취수시스템 분석)

  • Kim, Ji-Ho;Kim, Tae-Won;Lee, Seung-Oh;Park, Young-Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.14 no.12
    • /
    • pp.6447-6454
    • /
    • 2013
  • Seawater intake systems have significant problems due to seawater pollution, suspended solids, unstable intake and maintenance etc. An underground type seawater intake system was newly developed to overcome the existing weaknesses and was facilitated in Gyukpo port. In this study, to check the performance of the new system, the samples for water quality and the 3-D numerical modeling test were conducted. The five times test included the COD, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, pH, and suspended solid for the intake system. The analyses show that the COD, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, PH showedminor changes before and after. On the other hand, the change in suspended solids was significant and water was purified below 5 mg/l, first level fisheries water, after. The numerical model adopted the RNG $k-{\epsilon}$ algorithm and the CFX model based on the finite volume method. The porosity algorithm was used to reproduce filtered-sand, outer diameter, and thickness. The numerical results showed that the double pipe is advantageous in that it provides a uniform pressure between the inner and outer pipe for the flow to be stable. In addition, the use of multiple intake pipes did not interfere with the discharge reduction of 0.98 at the both intake pipes compared with the central intake pipe.

Effects of Shading Rate and Method of Inside Air Temperature Change in Greenhouse (차광율 및 차광방법이 온실내부의 온도변화에 미치는 영향)

  • 이석건;이현우;김길동;이종원
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
    • /
    • v.10 no.2
    • /
    • pp.80-87
    • /
    • 2001
  • This study was conducted to provide basic data for the design of shading facility of greenhouse. The proper distance between external shading screen and roof surface, transmissivity of shading materials, and shading effects of external and internal shadings were analyzed. About a distance of 10 cm between inclined external shading screen and roof surface was enough to guarantee the external shading effect in the greenhouse without roof vent. The inside temperature of greenhouse installed with 85% internal shading screen was lower the maximum of 4$^{\circ}C$ and mean of 2$^{\circ}C$ than that with 55% internal shading screen in both natural ventilation and no ventilation condition. The difference of soil temperature between shading and no shading greenhouse was great, but the difference by shading rate or shading method was small. The performance of external shading for controlling inside temperature down was superior to that of the internal shading. The externally inclined shading screen parallel to the roof surface of greenhouse was more effective than the externally horizontal shading screen in controlling inside temperature of greenhouse without roof vent.

  • PDF

A Markov Chain Model for Population Distribution Prediction Considering Spatio-Temporal Characteristics by Migration Factors (이동요인별 시·공간적 인구이동 특성을 고려한 인구분포 예측: 마르코프 연쇄 모형을 활용하여)

  • Park, So Hyun;Lee, Keumsook
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.351-365
    • /
    • 2019
  • This study aims to predict the changes in population distribution in Korea by considering spatio-temporal characteristics of major migration reasons. For the purpose, we analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of each major migration reason(such as job, family, housing, and education) and estimate the transition probability, respectively. By appling Markov chain model processes with the ChapmanKolmogorov equation based on the transition probability, we predict the changes in the population distribution for the next six years. As the results, we found that there were differences of population changes by regions, while there were geographic movements into metropolitan areas and cities in general. The methodologies and the results presented in this study can be utilized for the provision of customized planning policies. In the long run, it can be used as a basis for planning and enforcing regionally tailored policies that strengthen inflow factors and improve outflow factors based on the trends of population inflow and outflow by region by movement factors as well as identify the patterns of population inflow and outflow in each region and predict future population volatility.

A prediction of the rock mass rating of tunnelling area using artificial neural networks (인공신경망을 이용한 터널구간의 암반분류 예측)

  • Han, Myung-Sik;Yang, In-Jae;Kim, Kwang-Myung
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
    • /
    • v.4 no.4
    • /
    • pp.277-286
    • /
    • 2002
  • Most of the problems in dealing with the tunnel construction are the uncertainties and complexities of the stress conditions and rock strengths in ahead of the tunnel excavation. The limitations on the investigation technology, inaccessibility of borehole test in mountain area and public hatred also restrict our knowledge on the geologic conditions on the mountainous tunneling area. Nevertheless an extensive and superior geophysical exploration data is possibly acquired deep within the mountain area, with up to the tunnel locations in the case of alternative design or turn-key base projects. An appealing claim in the use of artificial neural networks (ANN) is that they give a more trustworthy results on our data based on identifying relevant input variables such as a little geotechnical information and biological learning principles. In this study, error back-propagation algorithm that is one of the teaching techniques of ANN is applied to presupposition on Rock Mass Ratings (RMR) for unknown tunnel area. In order to verify the applicability of this model, a 4km railway tunnel's field data are verified and used as input parameters for the prediction of RMR, with the learned pattern by error back propagation logics. ANN is one of basic methods in solving the geotechnical uncertainties and helpful in solving the problems with data consistency, but needs some modification on the technical problems and we hope our study to be developed in the future design work.

  • PDF

Characteristics of Incident Waves on Seaweed Farm Field Around Gumil-up Sea, Wando (완도 금일읍 주변해역 해조류 양식장에 내습하는 해양파랑 특성)

  • Jeon, Yong-Ho;Yoon, Han-Sam;Kim, Dong-Hwan;Kim, Heon-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
    • /
    • v.15 no.3
    • /
    • pp.177-185
    • /
    • 2012
  • Wave field measurements were made over a period of 18 days to study the spatial distribution of incident wave on seaweed tarm field around Gumil-up Sea, Wando, Korea. These measured data were compared with data from the Geomun-do ocean weather/wave observation buoy. A numerical simulation model that combined the offshore design wave with the seasonal normal incoming wave was used to study the incident wave distribution surrounding a seaweed farm. The results are summarized as follows. (1) On-site wave measurements showed that the major relationship between maximum and significant wave height was $H_{max}=1.6H_{1/3}$. (2) Offshore incident wave energy reaching the coast was greatly influenced by the wind direction. A north wind reduced the incident wave energy and a south wind increased it. (3) The calculated maximum wave height under the design wave boundany conditions was in the range of 4~5 m and the reduction in the incident wave height ratio ranged from approximately 38.1% to 47.6% at Gumil-up Sea. Under normal wave conditions, the maximum wave heights were 3.6~4.0 m in summer and 2.3~2.7 m in winter while the reduction in the incident wave height ratio was about 41.8% to 49.1%. (4) The sea state in the southern area of Gumil-up was the most affected by ocean waves, whereas the sea state in the northern area was very stable. The significant wave ratio in the south was about six times that in the north.

Experimental study on behavior of the existing tunnel due to adjacent slope excavation in a jointed rock mass (절리암반에서의 근접사면굴착에 의한 기존터널 거동에 대한 실험적 연구)

  • Lee, Jin-Wook;Lee, Sang-Duk
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
    • /
    • v.11 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-9
    • /
    • 2009
  • When a rock slope is excavated adjacent to a existing tunnel, the behavior of the existing tunnel in the jointed rock masses is greatly influenced by the joint conditions and slope status. In this study, the effects of joint dip and slope angle close to a tunnel are investigated through a large scale model using a biaxial test equipment ($3.1\;m\;{\times}\;3.1\;m\;{\times}\;0.50\;m$ (width $\times$ height $\times$ length)). The jointed rock masses were built by concrete blocks. The diameter of the modeled tunnel is 0.6 m and the dip angles of joint vary in the range of $0-90^{\circ}$. In addition, the excavated slope angle varies within $30{\sim}90^{\circ}$. Deformational behaviors of the tunnel were analyzed in consideration of joint dip and slope angle. With increase of the joint dip and slope angle, the magnitude of tunnel distortion and the moment of tunnel lining were increased. Rock mass displacement in horizontal was also dependent on the joint dip and the excavated slope angle, which indicated the optimal slope reinforcement for a specific rock mass conditions.

Exploring the Evolution Patterns of Trading Zones Appearing in the Convergence of Teachers' Ideas: The Case Study of a Learning Community of Teaching Volunteers 'STEAM Teacher Community' (교사들의 아이디어 융합 과정에서 나타나는 교역지대의 진화과정 탐색: 자율적 학습공동체'STEAM 교사 연구회' 사례연구)

  • Lee, Jun-Ki;Lee, Tae-Kyong;Ha, Minsu
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
    • /
    • v.33 no.5
    • /
    • pp.1055-1086
    • /
    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the formation and evolution patterns of a trading zone and to explore the difficulties teachers experience in the trading zone and their perceptions of the experience. Seven teachers involved in the 'STEAM Teacher Community' in a middle school located in the southern part of South Korea participated in this study. Participant observation and in-depth interviews were carried out, and reflective essays were collected for analysis. The results show that teachers successfully formed a trading zone to share their expertise when they developed teaching materials for the convergence of different subject matters. Moreover, such a trading zone evolved in the order of pre-trading zone, trading zone under elite control, trading zone with boundary object, and trading zone of shared mental model. The difficulties teachers experienced in the trading zone were categorized under the difference of culture and opinion across subject matters, the lack of motivation for convergence, the hegemony of convergence and far-fetched factors for convergence, and difficulty of communication due to jargons. Also teachers in this study experienced perceptual changes in the trading zone. The trading zone model drawn from the results of this study bring forth implications for voluntary teachers' learning community activity for the convergence of different subject matters.

Combined Effects of Groundwater Abstraction and Irrigation Reservoir on Streamflow (지하수 이용과 농업용 저수지가 하천유량에 미치는 복합 영향)

  • Kim, Nam Won;Lee, Jeongwoo;Chung, Il Moon;Lee, Min Ho
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.46 no.7
    • /
    • pp.719-733
    • /
    • 2013
  • In this study, a watershed-based surface-water and groundwater integrated model, SWAT-MODFLOW was used to evaluate streamflow depletion induced by groundwater withdrawals and irrigation reservoirs for the Juksan-cheon watershed in South Korea. The streamflow responses to groundwater pumping and irrigation reservoirs were simulated under several different scenarios. The scenarios were (1) current pumping well withdrawals with reservoirs; (2) current pumping well withdrawals without reservoirs; (3) no pumping well withdrawals with reservoirs; (4) no pumping well withdrawals without reservoirs (natural condition). The simulated results indicated that the effects of groundwater pumping on streamflow depletion are a little more significant than those of irrigation reservoirs. Particularly, the groundwater withdrawals with irrigation reservoirs at current status (scenario 1) has induced the decrease of more than 20% in drought flow against the natural condition (scenario 4) at the outlet of the watershed. The specific drought flows through the main stream of Juksan-cheon watershed were simulated in order to assess the irrigation effects on downstream flows. It was found out that the specific drought flows are increasing as the distance from the reservoir increases due to the accumulation of the return flows to stream.

Improvement of Small Wetland and Stream in Cultivated Area in point of Landscape Ecology (경작지 내 소규모 습지 및 소하천의 경관생태적 개선방안)

  • Cho, Hyun-Ju;Ra, Jung-Hwa;Kim, Jin-Hyo
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
    • /
    • v.29
    • /
    • pp.11-19
    • /
    • 2011
  • This research gives weight to establish practical improvement based on analysis of the landscape ecological character and value to realize the importance of small wetland and stream in cultivated areas functioning as a residual landscape element in rural landscape and to deal with ecological depression effectively. The results of summary are as follows. 1) The results of landscape ecological character analysis of wetlands biotop in total of 7 sites, for example, size of surface in site 5 was widely formed about $10,600m^2$, which was assessed satisfactory in terms of slope of waterfront, width of hedgerow, vegetation condition of composition and so on. Also, The number of flexibility showed 2 in site 8-1, the highest, and morphological diversity showed 1.47, the highest. 2) The results of problem analysis of wetland biotop, most of wetlands are analyzed that the width of hedgerow was below 1m. Also, the 4 wetlands in site 8 are appeared that hard to live slope vegetation in there because of slope of waterfronts are above $45^{\circ}$. 3) The results of landscape ecological character analysis of stream in total of 6 sites, for example, width of waterfront in site 4 showed 55m, the widest, and investigated consist of natural ingredients such as soil, rock, gravel. However, width of waterfront in site 2-2 showed 4m, the narrowest, and inclined angle of slope was formed a right angle. 4) The results of problem analysis of stream, width of waterfront hedgerow in site 2-1 showed about 5m, which was very narrower than width of waterfront, and toxic chemicals discharged from near cultivated area without any filtering. Also, all areas of site 2-2 was formed concrete, and was assessed dissatisfactory in terms of capacity of nature purification, flood control, habitat living space because of straight stream. 5) Based on the result above landscape ecological character and problem analysis, main improvement guidelines are set in terms of shape, vegetation, topography in case of wetlands, and which are set in terms of vertical, horizontal structure in case of stream.

  • PDF