• Title/Summary/Keyword: 상대오차

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Exploring the Application of Generalizability Theory to Mathematics Teacher Evaluation for Professional Development in Korea Based on the Analysis of Instructional Quality Assessment of Mathematics Teachers in the U.S. (미국 수학교사의 교수 질 평가도구 분석을 통한 우리나라 수학 교원능력개발평가에서의 일반화가능도 이론 활용성 탐색)

  • Kim, Sungyeun
    • Communications of Mathematical Education
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.431-455
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study was to suggest methods to apply generalizability theory to mathematics teacher evaluation using classroom observations in Korea by analysing mathematics teachers in the U.S. using the instructional quality of assessment instrument as an illustrative example. The subjects were 96 teachers participating in Year 3 and Year 4 from the Middle-school Mathematics and the Institutional Setting of Teaching (MIST) project funded by the National Science Foundation since 2007. The MIST project investigates the following question: What does it takes to support mathematics teachers' development of ambitious and equitable instructional practices on a large scale (MIST, 2007). This study examined data based on both the univariate generalizability analysis using GENOVA program and the multivariate generalizability analysis using mGENOVA program. Specifically, this study determined the relative effects of each error source and investigated optimal measuring conditions to obtain the suitable generalizability coefficients. The methodology applied in this study can be utilized to find effective optimal measurement conditions for the mathematics teacher evaluation for professional development in Korea. Finally, this study discussed limitations of the results and suggested directions for future research.

Development of the RP and SP Combined using Error Component Method (Error Component 방법을 이용한 RP.SP 결합모형 개발)

  • 김강수;조혜진
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.119-130
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    • 2003
  • SP data have been widely used in assessing new transport policies and transport related plans. However, one of criticisms of using SP is that respondents may show different reaction between hypothetical experiments and real life. In order to overcome the problem, combination of SP and RP data has been suggested and the combined methods have been being developed. The purpose of this paper is to suggest a new SP and RP combined method using error component method and to verify the method. The error component method decomposes IID extreme value error into non-IID error component(s) and an IID error component. The method estimates both of component parameters and utility parameters in order to obtain relative variance of SP data and RP data. The artificial SP and RP data was created by using simulation and used for the analysis, and the estimation results of the error component method were compared with those of existing SP and RP combined methods. The results show that regardless of data size, the parameters of the error component method models are similar to those assumed parameters much more than those of the existing SP and RP combined models, indicating usefulness of the error component method. Also the values of time for error component method are more similar to those assumed values than those of the existing combined models. Therefore, we can conclude that the error component method is useful in combining SP and RP data and more efficient than the existing methods.

Evaluation of Surface water-Groundwater Interaction for the Kap-Stream Basin (갑천 유역의 지표수-지하수 상호작용 평가)

  • Hong, Sung-Hun;Kim, Jeong-Kon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.503-507
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    • 2007
  • 지하수 유동 모델에 반영되는 유역의 수리지질학적, 수문학적 특징들은 지하수 유동 특성에 주요한 영향을 미칠 수 있는 현장 특성들이다. 상기 특징들을 최대한 반영하기 위하여 438개의 관정자료를 토대로 갑천 유역(유역 면적 $648.3km^2$)의 대수층 구조 특성을 분석하고, 24개의 하천 자료를 이용하여 지하수 유동 모델을 구축하였다. 그리고 검 보정된 준분포형 유출모형(SWAT)의 22개 소유역의 지하수 함양량 결과를 3차원 지하수 유동 모델(MODFLOW)과 연계하여 갑천 유역의 광역 지하수 유동 특성을 평가하였다. 모의된 지하수위와 86개 지하수 관측정의 지하수위 비교에서 결정계수는 0.9918, 유역 전체의 물교환량의 상대오차율이 약 0.57%로 갑천 유역의 지하수 유동 특성을 잘 반영하였다. 갑천 유역의 지하수는 지형 및 대수층 특성과 하천의 영향에 의하여 전반적으로 유역 남쪽에서 북쪽으로 유동하는데 산지 지역에 존재하는 하천들은 손실과 이득 하천의 형태를 반복하는 반면, 갑천 중 하류 부분과 갑천-유등천 합류 부근은 이득하천의 형태를 보이고 있다. 그리고 소유역별 지하수 물교환량 분석한 결과, 상기 지역을 포함하는 소유역의 하천 공급원이 해당 유역의 지하수 함양량보다 지하수 유동 체계에 따라 인근 소유역에서 공급되는 지하수 유입량 비율이 훨씬 높은 것으로 분석되었다. 반면 유등천 중 상류 지역의 소유역을 제외한 산지 지역의 경우는 하천 공급원이 지하수 유동 체계에 의한 유입량보다 해당 유역 내에서 공급되는 지하수 함양량 비율이 높은 것으로 분석되었다. 따라서 지표수와 지하수의 상호작용 및 하천 유출에 지하수 유동 특성이 주요한 영향을 미치는 것으로 평가되었다.ens 4.4% (2.19)로 나타났다. 4. 全모기類의 月別 捕獲個體數에 對한 百分率은 다음과 같다. 5月 : 0.1% (1981年), 0.0% (1982年); 6月 : 3.5%, 1.3%; 7月 : 50.0%, 33.9%; 8月 : 37.1%, 52.1%; 9月 : 8.8%, 11.9%; 10月 : 0.5%, 0.8%; 11月 : 0.1%. 5. 모기類의 出現은 1981年과 1982年 모두 5月初로서 共通性을 지니고 있으나 增加勢를 보이는 것은 다르게 나타났다. 즉, 1981年은 6月 첫째 週이고 1982年은 前年度보다 3週 앞당겨진 5月 둘째 週였다. 6. 發生最大 peak는 1981年이 7月 다섯째 週이고, 1982年은 2週가 늦은 8月 둘째 週였다. 7. Culex (Culex) pipiens pallens의 最大發生 peak는 1981年度에 7月 다섯째 週, 1982年度는 2週 앞당겨진 7月 셋째 週였다. 8. Culex (Culex) tritaeniorhynchus summoro년의 最大發生 peak는 1981年, 1982年 모두 8月 둘째 週였다. 9. Anopheles (Anopheles) sinensis의 最大發生 peak는 1981年에 7月 다섯째 週, 1982年은 2週 앞당겨진 7月 셋째 週였다. 10. 重要 3種의 最大 peak를 比城하면 Culex (Culex) pipiens pallens와 Anopheles (Anopheles) sinensis는 1981年과 1982年 모두 最大 peak時期가 同一하였으며, Culex (Culex) tritaeniorhynchus summoro년는 2年間 모두 8月둘째 週에 나타났다.osterior to manubrium and anterio

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Daily Reservoir Inflow Prediction using Quantitative Precipitation Model (강수진단모형을 이용한 실시간 저수지 일유입량 예측)

  • Kang, Boo-Sik;Kang, Tae-Ho;Oh, Jai-Ho;Kim, Jin-Young
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.291-295
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    • 2007
  • 강수진단모형을 이용하여 저수지 이수운영을 위한 실시간 유량예측기법을 개발하였다. 강수진단모형은 현재 기상청 현업에서 수행중인 강우수치예보를 기반으로 상세 지역의 지형 효과에 의한 강수를 예측하는 정량강수예측모형(QPM; Quantitative Precipitation Model)으로서 부경대학교 환경대기과학과에서 개발된 모형이다. QPM은 중규모 예측 모형으로부터 계산된 수평 바람, 고도, 기온, 강우 강도, 그리고 상대습도 등의 예측 자료를 이용하고, 소규모 상세지형 효과를 고려함으로써 중규모 예측 모형에서 생산된 강수량 예측 값을 상세 지역의 지형을 고려한 강수량 예측 값으로 재구성하여 결과적으로 3km 간격의 상세지역 강우산출과 지형에 따른 강수량의 분포 파악이 용이할 뿐만 아니라 계산 효율성을 개선된 모형이다. QPM 검증을 위하여 기상학적 평가와 수문학적 평가를 수행하였다. 호우 사례별 일강수량의 시공간 분포로 부터, QPM을 활용한 시스템에 의한 예측결과가 원시자료 RDAPS 보다 고해상도의 예측 및 지형효과의 반영도가 높았으며, AWS의 관측자료와 비교하여 보다 높은 예측성을 보여 주었다. 대상기간인 2006년 1월 1일부터 6월 20일까지 관측강우는 총 391.5mm 였으며 RQPM은 실적강우에 비하여 119.5mm 정도 과소산정하고 있으나 분위사상과정을 거치게 되면 351.7mm로서 실적강우에 불과 10.2% 못미치고 있다. 이는 고무적인 결과로 볼 수 있으며 현업에서의 활용성이 기대되는 수준이라 볼 수 있다. 강우-유출모의를 위한 QPM신뢰도를 높이기 위하여 분위사상법(Quantile Mapping)을 이용하여 QPM모의에 존재할 수 있는 계통오차에 대한 추가적인 보정을 수행하였다. 수문학적 평가를 위하여는 장기연속유출모형인 SSARR모형을 기반으로 개발된 RRFS(Rainfall-Runoff Forecast System)을 이용하여 2006년 1월${\sim}$9월까지의 용담댐 유입량에 대하여 모의예측결과와 관측유입량 비교를 통한 검증을 수행하였다. 위 기간중 예측유입량의 RMSE(Root Mean Squared Error), COE(Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency), MAE(Mean Absolute Error), $R^2$값은 각각 7.50, 0.68, 2.59, 0.69 값을 보이고 있다. 본 연구에서는 QPM에 의한 예측성의 향상 및 구축된 시스템에 의한 일강수량의 장기예측 가능성을 확인하였고, 향후 시스템을 현업에 활용하기 위해서 생산된 예측자료의 보다 장기적인 검증을 통한 시스템의 안정화가 필요할 것으로 사료된다.

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An Empirical Study on the Consumption Function of Korean Natural Gas for City Gas - Using Time Varying Coefficient Time Series Model - (한국 도시가스용 천연가스의 소비함수에 대한 실증분석 - 시간변동계수(TVC) 시계열모형 활용 -)

  • Kim, Jum-Su;Yang, Chun-Seung;Park, Jung-Gu
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.318-329
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    • 2011
  • This study focuses on enhancing the accuracy of consumption function of Korean natural gas for city gas. It is using time-series model with time-varying coefficients taking into account the recent abnormal temperature phenomenon and the changing gross domestic product (GDP) as important variables. This study estimates the cointegrating regression model for the long-run estimation and the error correction model for the short-run estimation. The consumption function of Korean natural gas is estimated to be influenced by the time-varying coefficients of GDP and temperature. Using the estimated time-series model with time-varying coefficients, this study forecasts the consumption of natural gas for city gas from July 2011 to December 2012. The consumption in 2011 would be 18,303 thousand tons, which is little different from the imported 18,681 thousand tons. The consumption of natural gas for city gas in 2012 is forecast to be 19,213 thousand tons. The consumption model of this study is needed to extend by considering the relative prices between natural gas and its substitutes, the scale of consumers and others.

An Action Information Management Method for Creating Adaptive NPC (적응형 NPC를 생성하는 행동 정보 관리 기법)

  • Kim, Na-Ra;Um, Ky-Hyun;Cho, Kyung-Eun
    • Journal of Korea Game Society
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.103-113
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    • 2008
  • Although people have had more opportunities to enjoy various types of game, most of players have felt less satisfaction with the games. This is the reason that since most Non-player Characters (NPCs) are simple and uniform, they have some limitations for competing with a variety of players. Thus, technologies for creating intelligent NPCs that can compete with each player at a similar level are required. In this paper, we present an action information management method for creating adaptive NPCs based on the algorithm for calculating their action efficiency. This algorithm is useful to the adaptation method for saving and controlling player-appropriate action. In our method, adaptive NPCs observe the actions of players and collect the relationship data between status and action. The efficiency value of the action data is calculated and data of similar status are grouped, and finally stored at the action database. The game system of NPC updates the action database and stores diverse actions. Then, NPC selects action with high efficiency value. We have tested our algorithm on an action game. A random test subject performed a one-on-one game against an adaptive NPC in real-time. As a result, the action dispositions of both the subject and NPC are analyzed in a log file to determine whether or not the disposition of the subject is similar to that of the NPC. The statistics of the diverse test results shows that NPCs become adaptive to players with error rate within less than 6%.

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Assessing the Real-time Positioning Accuracy of Low-cost GPS Receiver using NTRIP-based Augmentation Service (Ntrip 기반 보정서비스를 활용한 저가 GPS 수신기의 실시간 측위 정확도 평가)

  • Lee, Yong Chang
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2015
  • This paper presents the static and kinematic positioning accuracy by the real-time GPS positioning modes of the low-cost GPS receivers using NTRIP-based augmentation service. For this, acquires both the raw measurements data of the field tests by LEA 6T GPS module of u-blox AG, and correction communication via NTRIP caster with RTKLIB as an open source program for GNSS solution. With computing the positions of the check points and road tracks by six kinds of GPS positioning modes which are Single, SBAS, DGPS, PPP, RTK, and TCP/IP_RTK, compared these results to the reference position of the check points. The position error average and rmse of the static test by GPS L1 RTK surveying showed $N=0.002m{\pm}0.001m$, $E=0.004m{\pm}0.001m$ in horizontal plane, and $h=-0.116m{\pm}0.003m$ in vertical, these results are very closed to the coordinates with the geodetic receiver. Especially, in case of the kinematic test with obstacles located on both sides of road, the computed track with ambiguity fixing showed very similar trajectory considerably from VRS network RTK mode. And also, evaluate and verify the performance of the TCP/IP_RTK mode developed based on TCP/IP protocol.

The Development of Growth and Yield Models for the Natural Broadleaved-Korean Pine Forests in Northeast China (중국(中國) 동북부(東北部) 지방(地方) 활엽수(闊葉樹)-잣나무 천연림(天然林)의 생장(生長) 모델과 수확(收穫) 모델 개발(開發))

  • Li, Fengri;Choi, Jung-Kee;Kim, Ji-Hong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.90 no.5
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    • pp.650-662
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    • 2001
  • The growth and yield models for five different kinds of natural forest types were systemically developed in the natural Broadleaved-Korean pine Forests in Northeast China. The data were collected from 359 temporary plots and 58 permanent plots with area ranged from 0.06 ha to 1.0 ha, ranging in stand age from 43 to 364 years. The Site Class Index (SCI) was introduced to evaluate site quality and the Crown Competition Factor (CCF) was selected as a measure of stand density for the mixed natural forest. The Chapman-Richards function was adopted to develop SCI equation and height-diameter curve. The Schumacher growth function was selected as base model to develop the DBH, basal area, and stand volume growth models by using re-parameterized method. In modeling mean DBH and basal area growth, it was found that the asymptotic parameter A of Schumacher function was exponentially related to site quality (SCI) and stand density (CCF). The rate parameter k was related to stand density and it was independent of SCI. Several validation measures for predicted stand variables were evaluated in the growth and yield models using independent data sets. The results indicated that relative mean errors (RME) in predicted stand attributes were less than ${\pm}5%$ and the estimated precision values of the stand variables were all greater than 95%.

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A Study of Dual-Frequency Microstrip Patch Antenna (이중공진 마이크로스트립 패치 안테나에 관한 연구)

  • 장준영;김준모;윤영중;엄순영;전순익
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.515-525
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    • 1998
  • In this paper, for both transmission and reception with single antenna system of satellite communication, dual-frequency antennas which operate simultaneously at 12.5 GHz and at 14.25 GHz are designed, constructed and measured. Also by using dual feeding structure, the problems of single-fed dual-frequency antenna such as the separation of transmitting and receiving signals and single polarization, are solved. Microstrip patch as a radiation element of dual-fed dual-frequency antenna has width and length which are the resonance lengths of the corresponding frequencies for transmission and reception, respectively. The effects of the feed line on the other frequency feeding are minimized with the optimal matching scheme for the feed lines. For solving the space problems of dual-fed two-dimensional array antennas, microstrip-line and coaxial probe feedings are used for each frequency and a two-dimensional $2\times2$ array antenna was designed and measured their characteristics. The experimental results show that errors of resonance frequencies are less than 1.44%, the return losses are less than -21 dB and the isolations between two feeding ports are less than -21 dB. The characteristics of radiation patterns of dual frequency microstrip antenna are measured and evaluated. The directivities, sidelobe levels and cross polarizations are also measured and compared with the simulations. The results show some errors due to the misalignment of coaxial probe feeding.

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Bivariate regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfalls in Korea (이변량 지역빈도해석을 이용한 우리나라 극한 강우 분석)

  • Shin, Ju-Young;Jeong, Changsam;Ahn, Hyunjun;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.9
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    • pp.747-759
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    • 2018
  • Multivariate regional frequency analysis has advantages of regional and multivariate framework as adopting a large number of regional dataset and modeling phenomena that cannot be considered in the univariate frequency analysis. To the best of our knowledge, the multivariate regional frequency analysis has not been employed for hydrological variables in South Korea. Applicability of the multivariate regional frequency analysis should be investigated for the hydrological variable in South Korea in order to improve our capacity to model the hydrological variables. The current study focused on estimating parameters of regional copula and regional marginal models, selecting the most appropriate distribution models, and estimating regional multivariate growth curve in the multivariate regional frequency analysis. Annual maximum rainfall and duration data observed at 71 stations were used for the analysis. The results of the current study indicate that Frank and Gumbel copula models were selected as the most appropriate regional copula models for the employed regions. Several distributions, e.g. Gumbel and log-normal, were the representative regional marginal models. Based on relative root mean square error of the quantile growth curves, the multivariate regional frequency analysis provided more stable and accurate quantiles than the multivariate at-site frequency analysis, especially for long return periods. Application of regional frequency analysis in bivariate rainfall-duration analysis can provide more stable quantile estimation for hydraulic infrastructure design criteria and accurate modelling of rainfall-duration relationship.