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http://dx.doi.org/10.5855/ENERGY.2011.20.4.318

An Empirical Study on the Consumption Function of Korean Natural Gas for City Gas - Using Time Varying Coefficient Time Series Model -  

Kim, Jum-Su (Graduate School of Energy & Environment, Seoul National University of Science and Technology)
Yang, Chun-Seung (Graduate School of Energy & Environment, Seoul National University of Science and Technology)
Park, Jung-Gu (Graduate School of Energy & Environment, Seoul National University of Science and Technology)
Publication Information
Journal of Energy Engineering / v.20, no.4, 2011 , pp. 318-329 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study focuses on enhancing the accuracy of consumption function of Korean natural gas for city gas. It is using time-series model with time-varying coefficients taking into account the recent abnormal temperature phenomenon and the changing gross domestic product (GDP) as important variables. This study estimates the cointegrating regression model for the long-run estimation and the error correction model for the short-run estimation. The consumption function of Korean natural gas is estimated to be influenced by the time-varying coefficients of GDP and temperature. Using the estimated time-series model with time-varying coefficients, this study forecasts the consumption of natural gas for city gas from July 2011 to December 2012. The consumption in 2011 would be 18,303 thousand tons, which is little different from the imported 18,681 thousand tons. The consumption of natural gas for city gas in 2012 is forecast to be 19,213 thousand tons. The consumption model of this study is needed to extend by considering the relative prices between natural gas and its substitutes, the scale of consumers and others.
Keywords
Consumption function of Korean natural gas; Time series model with time varying coefficients; GDP; Abnormal temperature phenomenon;
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