• Title/Summary/Keyword: 사업 실패

Search Result 241, Processing Time 0.024 seconds

몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 NPV(Net Present Value) 분석에 대한 확률론적 접근

  • Kim, Ji-Hyeon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
    • /
    • 2006.11a
    • /
    • pp.388-390
    • /
    • 2006
  • 투자안 가치평가 방법에는 화폐의 시간가치를 고려한 방법과 고려하지 않는 방법이 있다. 이중 가장 많이 쓰이고, 중요한 방법으로는 화폐의 시간 가치를 고려한 순현재가치법(NPV), 내부수익률법(IRR), 수익성지표법(Pl)등이 있다. 이중에서도 우리는 투자사업으로부터 사업의 최종년도까지 얻게 되는 순이익(수익-비용)의 흐름을 현재가치로 계산하는NPV 분석을 많이 실시하고 있다. 즉, 어떤 자산의 NPV가 0보다 크면 투자 시 기업가치의 순증가가 발생하므로 투자가치가 있는 것으로 평가하고 0보다 작으면 기업가치의 순감소가 발생하므로 투자가치가 없는 것으로 평가한다. 여기에서 많은 기업경영자 및 재무담당자들은 다음과 같은 의문을 갖고 NPV분석의 약점을 보안할 필요성을 제기하고 있다. “결과로부터 얻은 단일 값이 정말 신뢰할 만한 값인가?”, “만약 몇 가지의 리스크 요인이 우리의 사업모델에 영향을 미친다면 그 결과는 어떻게 달라질 것인가?”, “우리가 얻은 결과 값의 실현 가능성은 몇%이고 나머지 발생 가능한 값들의 분포는 어떻게 될 것인가?” 위 질문에 대한 답을 얻을 수 있다면 투자안에 대해 빠르고 올바른 의사결정을 내릴 수 있으며 실패의 위험을 줄일 수 있다 이런 분석을 가능하게 해 주는 것이 확률론적 분석이며, 즉 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션 기법이다. 이미 많은 선진 기업에서 이 방법을 통하여 모든 의사결정에 중요한 참고 자료로 이용하고 있으며 본 논문은 몬테카를로 분석의 대표적인 소프트웨어인 Crystal Ball을 이용하여 그 활용 사례를 소개하고자 한다.

  • PDF

창업보육센터 입주기업 마케팅 활성화 방안 연구

  • Jang, Seok-Ju;Yun, U-Gyu;Mun, Yeong-Sin
    • 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 2008.04a
    • /
    • pp.253-301
    • /
    • 2008
  • 본연구는 우리나라의 창업보육센터가 태동기, 양적 기반 확충기를 거쳐 이제 질적인 성장을 고려해야 할 성숙기의 단계에 접어들고 있는 시점에서 중소 벤처기업의 가장 어려운 난관인 Marketing 취약점을 제도적으로 지원함으로써 BI 입주기업의 성공을 도와 지역경제를 회생시키고 나아가 국가경제의 부흥을 도모할 필요가 있어 BI입주기업들을 대상으로 설문조사하여 분석 하였으며, 그 결과를 토대로 해결방안을 모색하였다. 조사 분석 결과 BI입주기업은 기술력과 사업성은 우수하나, 대외 인지도 및 마케팅능력 부족 등으로 매출신장은 미흡한 실정이고, 일부 BI 입주업체를 위한 마케팅 교육, 전시회 참가 및 홈페이지 제작 등을 지원하고 있으나, 그 성과는 극히 미홉하며, 기존 중소기업을 위한 판로지원 시책은 그 지원규모가 영세하고 또한, 기업의 성장단계 면에서 볼 때 초기 단계에 있는 BI입주기업이 이들 시책을 활용하기에는 애로가 있다. 경영자원의 부족에 따른 판매성과 미흡, 이에 따른 신규 경영자원 확보 실패와 계속적 판매 부진의 악순환을 탈피하기 어려울 것으로 판단되어진다. 이에 해결방안으로는 BI 입주기업에 대한 마케팅 지원을 활성화하기 위해서는 BI 입주기업만을 대상으로 하는 사업과 예산의 확보가 절대 필요하며 이를 시행함에 있어서는 수요자인 BI 입주기업이 필요로하는 서비스에 최우선을 두면서 소요 예산을 감안하는 것이 필요하다. 지원대상에 있어서는 BI 입주기업 전체를 지원하는 것은 예상되는 사업 비용상 불가능하며 차등적 지원을 통해 성공모델을 육성하는 것이 필요하리라고 전망된다.

  • PDF

Analysis of Recognition on Business Risks and Entrepreneurial Intention (사업위험에 대한 인지가 창업의욕 및 사업유지의욕에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Ha, Kyu Soo;Seo, Sang Hyuk
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
    • /
    • v.14 no.spc
    • /
    • pp.1285-1311
    • /
    • 2011
  • In this research, we investigated both present and potential entrepreneurs who are over 20 years old. The theme was that how businessmen's manners toward business and danger-perception have difference and are affected according to various factors. Besides, we also worked on the influence of manners toward enterprise and risk-perception variable on intention of starting and maintaining a business by using a decision-making model of consumers. The results are the followings. First, attitude toward enterprise was positive when the entrepreneur is man or unprofessional. This phenomenon was also observed if his or her parents had business foundation experience or he or she has self-realization motive rather than economical. Meanwhile, danger-recognition was high when the entrepreneur has no job, is more than 40 years old, has business background, or has affirmative enterprise attitude. Second, people who are man, have parents with business background or have self-realization motive on business foundation were more willing to start a business. Meanwhile, people who have affirmative enterprise manners, company with sales from 11 billion to 100 billion won or no business failure experience had high intention to maintain a business. Third, businessmen who are men, work in unprofessional job or have business experience had more strong desire to establish enterprise. Meantime, people who are old, have no jobs or have enterprise experience showed high danger-recognition level. At last, people who are men or jobless had strong will to start a business. So did the people who have positive attitude toward business or have parents who have business experience. Meantime, people with affirmative business manners or no experience of enterprise failure had strong intention to keep business.

  • PDF

New Business Success using Strategic Innovation Strategy: Marine Engine Business and HEMAPT System of the Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. (신규사업성공과 전략적 기술혁신전략: 현대중공업의 엔진사업진출과 HEMAPT시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Wha Young
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
    • /
    • v.6 no.2
    • /
    • pp.23-35
    • /
    • 2016
  • Firms should seek greater profits and corporate growth through new businesses. New businesses contribute realizing creative economy that creates good jobs, and expanding the company by securing new markets and creating new profits and growth. However, new business is risky management decision-making to have a high failure rate because it involves the adaptation of new business environment and the burden of new investments, including the uncertainty of success in business. Therefore, innovation strategies play important roles for the new business entry, using product innovation, process innovation, business model innovation, disruptive innovation, and strategic innovation, etc. and company will get huge economic results by pushing them into successful business. It is essential that innovation strategy and IT development strategy along with business strategy of a firm are linked, and their strategic alignment is considered to be a critical success factor for new business success. Hyundai Heavy Industries(HHI) pursued marine engine business for the development of precision machinery industry and shipbuilding industry of Korea, and the company recognized the importance of new business strategy, innovation strategy, and IT strategy inter-linked, and pushed strategic alignment boldly. As a result, HHI won the competition in European and Japanese engine manufacturers and climbed into the world's largest engine manufacturer. This study suggests investigating and analyzing a case that HHI succeeded in marine engine business expansion using strategic innovation strategy as a way of the introduction of CNC machine tools and the development of HEMAPT system.

'Lean Startup' : The Way to Reduce the Failure Rate of Startups ('린 스타트업' : 창업 초기기업의 실패 최소화 전략)

  • Cho, Sungju;Lee, Sang-Myung;Park, Byung-Jin
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
    • /
    • v.9 no.4
    • /
    • pp.41-53
    • /
    • 2014
  • There has been lots of discussions and new policies to encourage people to start new businesses. However, they key issue such as how to raise the success rate of new start-ups still needs to be resolved. Many believe that the success of policies and discussions for promoting entrepreneurship in Korea highly depends on how to lower the risks with which early stage start-ups encounter. In this backdrop, this study aims at providing an emerging approaches in entrepreneurship, 'lean start-up', which can work as an effective method with which early stage entrepreneurs can minimize challenges they face. Even though lean start-up is a widely accepted concept among practitioners and recognized as a useful tool for entrepreneurship and education, but has not got deserved attention from the academic world. This paper offers basic framework and key principles of lean start-ups, furthermore, shows Korean cases of step-by-step application methods of its concepts. It also suggest key issues in adopting lean start-up strategy. This study has implications and contributions for entrepreneurs, educators and researchers through providing comprehensive perspectives on process of the lean start-up strategy.

  • PDF

The Development of a Standardized Work Process for Planning of Plant Project - Focus on Excavating and Investing Participation Plan - (플랜트 프로젝트 사업기획단계 표준 업무 프로세스 개발 - 사업발굴 및 사업참여 결정을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Do-yun;Choi, Chang-Hoon;Won, Seo-kyung;Cho, Moon-Young;Han, Choong-Hee;Lee, Junbok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.3-11
    • /
    • 2016
  • Recently, overseas plant orders of domestic enterprises are steadily increased, and the amount of orders in the first half of 2014 were 93% increased compared to the previous year. In addition, now which is the third quarter of 2015, overseas plant orders are already over 249.8 billion dollars so the interests of plant industry research has been increased. In the life cycle of the plant project, CM before the construction stage is to complement the uncertainties that are inherent in the early stages of the project, and from the viewpoint of supporting the rational decision-making, the importance of its role is on the rise. Among them, excavating and investing participation plan in the planning stage is an important work that has a large impact force to influence the success and failure of future project. However, the work has become a problem with frequent consultations due to decision-making, continuous modification, and inefficient repetitive tasks. Therefore, it is needed that work process should be changed to effectively accommodate. The purpose of this paper is to derive the major work items for excavating and investing participation plan in the planning stage of the plant project, and establish a standardized work process through the Delphi analysis. The result of this study is expected to be utilized for EPC companies in ensuring the technical competitiveness in planning on overseas markets, and improve the efficiency of work.

Analysis of Risk Factors for the Importance in Vietnam's Public-Private Partnership Project Using SOM(Self-organizing map) (SOM(Self-organizing map)을 활용한 베트남 민관협력사업 리스크 요인 중요도 분석)

  • Yun, Geehyei;Kim, Seungho;Kim, Sangyong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
    • /
    • v.20 no.4
    • /
    • pp.347-355
    • /
    • 2020
  • The economic growth rate and the urban population of the Vietnam are steadily increasing. As a result, the size of the Vietnam's construction market for infrastructure development is expected to increase. However, Vietnam is adopting PPP(Public-Private Partnership) to solve this problem because the government lacks the financial and administrative capacity for infrastructure development. PPP is a business that lasts more than 10 years, so risk management is very important because it can be a long term damage in case of business failure. This study proposes a self-organization map (SOM) for analyzing the impact of risk factors and determining the priority of them. SOM is a visualization analysis method that analyzes the inherent correlation through the color pattern of each factor.

A Study on the Prediction of Initial Sales Rate on Apartment Housing Projects (민간 아파트 사업의 초기계약률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Seongsoo;Kim, Leeyoung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.16 no.4
    • /
    • pp.3-11
    • /
    • 2015
  • Apartment developers consider the initial sales rate as an important indicator for their success of apartment development projects. They tried to achieve a secure level of initial sales rate. In spite of its importance, there is little research on the initial sales rate because of the difficulties in gathering proper data for analysis. This study, however, collects the data in initial sales rates in Su-won from various sources such as construction companies, marketing companies, sales companies and so on. By using this rare data, this study analyses the initial contract rate of apartment and estimates the initial contract rate by sales price. The result of this study shows that important of land area ratio, brand, and distance to park. It is expected that the proposed model will be used for apartment developers in sales planning phase.

An Exploratory Research on Quantitative Risk Assessment Methodology Throughout Success Factor Analysis in Project Financing (PF 개발사업의 성공요인 분석을 통한 리스크 평가체계 구축을 위한 기초연구)

  • Lee, Dong-Gun;Cha, Hee-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.14 no.5
    • /
    • pp.92-102
    • /
    • 2013
  • A Project Financing (PF) is a form of project delivery system that is carried out for the purpose of trying to give help to the development of national economy and the construction industry in order attract private investment. However, in the case of Korea, many PF projects are only taking into account the aspect of maximizing development benefits, and the proliferation of PF results in project failure. In addition, the interruption of business has been one after another in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis. These major cause is the result of efforts to block the potential risk of objectively quantifying operations. Nowadays, PF risk analysis in terms of various factors is insufficient. The purpose of this study is to identify and quantify the extensive risk elements to classify the cause of affecting the success of the project PF study prior to propose a methodology for evaluating the integrity of the project PF based on this and to provide a quantitative system that can evaluate the business risk. This study identified the factors that affect the PF business success and failure and establish the metrics that can be quantified through existing research and expert interviews. Factors influencing the success of the PF obtained as a result of surveys and interviews in assessing the soundness of the PF development conditions in the future be able to take advantage of, as well as an objective assessment tool to be able to take advantage of the development is expected.

The Development of Risk Management Process Model during Bidding Phase for Success of Oversea Construction Projects (성공적 해외건설사업을 위한 입찰단계의 리스크 관리 프로세스 모델 개발 - 발전 플랜트 EPC 사업을 중심으로 -)

  • Seo, Jae-Pil;Ryu, Han-Guk;Son, Bo-Sik;Choi, Yoon-Ki
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.76-86
    • /
    • 2016
  • Recently, the Contracts of International Construction Business has been decreased from the beginning of 2015 in Korea, although it has been steadily increased until 2014. This trend could be caused by Low-Price Contracts, the lack of Know-how and experience in operating, the poor management of Claims and Low-Profitability in Business. It has been recognized that the qualitative improvement of Business Contacts are necessary for successful Projects. In the Bidding Process, therefore, Experience data as In-House Data and Lessons Learned for projects should be strategically involved to assure riskless offers. Accordingly the Proposal Process are needed to be organized and enhanced by including processes for risks review about technical, marketing and commercial part during the bidding. This paper proposes a Risk Management Process model during Bidding Phase, using Risk Evaluation Method through the project life-cycle. The Concept of Model is to define CSF (Critical Success Factor) in the bidding process and Risk Factors are linked to CSF and Organization based on RAM (Responsibility assignment matrix).