• Title/Summary/Keyword: 사고모형

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The Study on Traffic Accident of Commercial Vehicle using Odered Logit Model (순서형 로짓모형을 이용한 화물차 운전자 사고 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Byoung-Jo;Ko, Eun-Hyeck;Yang, Sung-Ryong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Disaster Information Conference
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    • 2016.11a
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    • pp.265-266
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    • 2016
  • 본 연구에서는 수집된 자료에서 화물차 교통사고를 분류하고 계절과 기상상태, 도로유형, 법규위반, 사고유형 측면에서 각각의 변수들이 사고 심각도에 미치는 영향을 파악함으로써 유의하게 화물차 교통사고 심각도를 높이는 요인을 분석하고자 하였다. 화물차 사고는 가을의 경우 사고 심각도의 오즈비가 1.23배로 증가하고, 안개가 꼈을 경우 사고 심각도는 16.49배 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 법규위반, 도로형태, 사고유형 등 여러 요인에 의한 사고 위험도가 증가했지만 특히 도로 외 이탈로 인한 추락사고에서 사고 위험도가 크게 나타났으며 전도전복으로 인한 사고 위험도도 큰 것으로 나타났다.

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Safety Impacts of Red Light Enforcement on Signalized Intersections (교차로 신호위반 단속카메라 설치가 차량사고에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Sang Hyuk;Lee, Yong Doo;Do, Myung Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2012
  • The frequency and severity of traffic accidents related to signalized intersections in urban areas have been more serious than those in both arterial segments and crosswalks. Especially, traffic accidents involved with injuries and fatalities have caused by traffic signal violations within intersections. Therefore, many countries including Korea have installed the red light enforcement camera (RLE) to reduce traffic accidents associated with the traffic signal violation. Meanwhile, many methodologies have been studied in terms of safety impacts estimation of red light enforcement, which, however, cannot be easy to conduct. In this study, safety impacts was estimated for intersections of Chicago downtown area using SPF models and EB approach. As a result, for all crash types and target traffic accident types such as "angle", "rear end", "sideswipe in the same and other directions", "turn", and "head on", fatal crashes were reduced by 26% and 38%. However, RLE may increase property-demage-only-crashes by 3.23% and 1.16%, respectively.

Reasoning Models in Physics Learning of Scientifically Gifted Students (과학영재의 물리개념 이해에 관한 사고모형)

  • Lee, Young-Mee;Kim, Sung-Won
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.28 no.8
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    • pp.796-813
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    • 2008
  • A good understanding of how gifted science students understand physics is important to developing and delivering effective curriculum for gifted science students. This dissertation reports on a systematic investigation of gifted science students' reasoning model in learning physics. An analysis of videotaped class work, written work and interviews indicate that I will discuss the framework to characterize student reasoning. There are three main groups of students. The first group of gifted science students holds several different understandings of a single concept and apply them inconsistently to the tasks related to that concept. Most of these students hold the Aristotelian Model about Newton's second law. In this case, I define this reasoning model as the manifold model. The second group of gifted science students hold a unitary understanding of a single concept and apply it consistently to several tasks. Most of these students hold a Newtonian Model about Newton's second law. In this case, I define this reasoning model as the coherence model. Finally, some gifted science students have a manifold model with several different perceptions of a single concept and apply them inconsistently to tasks related to the concept. Most of these students hold the Aristotelian Model about Newton's second law. In this case, I define this reasoning model as the coherence model.

A Study on Marginal Effect of Geometric Structure on Freeway Accident Frequencies (고속도로 교통사고에 대한 기하구조의 영향(한계효과)에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Min Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.73-81
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    • 2014
  • This study dealt with the impacts of geometric structure on traffic accidents occurring on the interstates. There are standard values for the case of geometric structure which are recommended in the design guideline/policy; however, in the previous models, geometric variables were adapted as integrated ones as opposed to mixed ones in the real world so that derived models had a weakness to reflect the real. Therefore, using subdivided geometric variables, this study tried to derive the model which reflects the real world. In addition, by calculating elasticity, each variables' effect to the accidents are estimated. Hopefully, this study will help to establish the future guideline/policy of geometrics considering traffic safety.

Development of Car Accidents Person Fatality Model using Data Mining (데이터 마이닝을 이용한 차량 사고자 사망확률 모형)

  • Kim Cheon-Shik;Hong You-Shik;Jung Myung-Hee
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.43 no.9 s.351
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    • pp.25-31
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, a fatality model of car accident using data mining is proposed with the goal of reducing fatality of traffic accident. The analysis results with a proposed fatality model are utilized to improve a technology and environment for driving. For this, traffic accident data are collected, a data mining algorithm is applied to this data, and then, a fatality model of car accident is developed based on the analysis. The training data as well as test data are utilized to develop the fatality model. The important factors to cause fatality in traffic accidents can be investigated using the model. If these factors are taken into account in traffic policies and driving environment, it is expected that the fatality rate of traffic accident can be reduced hereafter.

Development of Traffic Accident Prediction Models Considering Variations of the Future Volume in Urban Areas (신설 도시부 도로의 장래 교통량 변화를 반영한 교통사고 예측모형 개발)

  • Lee, Soo-Beom;Hong, Da-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.3 s.81
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    • pp.125-136
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    • 2005
  • The current traffic accident reduction procedure in economic feasibility study does not consider the characteristics of road and V/C ratio. For solving this problem, this paper suggests methods to be able to evaluate safety of each road in construction and improvement through developing accident Prediction model in reflecting V/C ratio Per road types and traffic characters. In this paper as primary process, model is made by tke object of urban roads. Most of all, factor effecting on accident relying on road types is selected. At this point, selecting criteria chooses data obtained from road planning procedure, traffic volume, existence or non-existence of median barrier, and the number of crossing point, of connecting road. and of traffic signals. As a result of analyzing between each factor and accident. all appear to have relatives at a significant level of statistics. In this research, models are classified as 4-categorized classes according to roads and V/C ratio and each of models draws accident predicting model through Poisson regression along with verifying real situation data. The results of verifying models come out relatively satisfactory estimation against real traffic data. In this paper, traffic accident prediction is possible caused by road's physical characters by developing accident predicting model per road types resulted in V/C ratio and this result is inferred to be used on predicting accident cost when road construction and improvement are performed. Because data using this paper are limited in only province of Jeollabuk-Do, this paper has a limitation of revealing standards of all regions (nation).

Traffic Accident Prediction Model by Freeway Geometric Types (고속도로 선형조건별 교통사고 위험도 평가모형 개발 (호남고속도로를 중심으로))

  • 강정규;이성관
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.163-175
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    • 2002
  • Fatalities from traffic accidents constitute one of the major health issues as well as safety ones in Korea. It has been reported that traffic accident is affected by the combined effects of road. vehicle. and human factors. Over the past few decades, a number of studies have been conducted to find the impact of road geometric factors on traffic safety. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of road geometric factors on traffic safety on Korean expressways. Detailed geometric design data were available from Korea Highway Corporation. Five-year traffic accident data on Honam expressway were collected and analyzed. It was found that following geometric factors influence traffic safety on expressways : radius of curve, curve length, and length of straight section. Furthermore, the existence of I.C. turned out to have a significant impact on traffic safety level. Based on the data analysis several multiple regression forms that relate traffic accident frequencies and geometric factors on expressways are developed.

Accident Models of Circular Intersection by Cause Using ZAM (ZAM을 이용한 원형교차로 원인별 사고모형 개발)

  • Na, Hee;Park, Byung-Ho
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.101-108
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    • 2012
  • This study deals with the traffic accidents of circular intersections in Korea. The goal of this study is to develop the traffic accident models using ZAM. The main results are as follows. First, in the case of 'violating the operational method of intersection', ZINB(zero-inflatednegative binomial) models were analyzed to be the best fit to the data. Second, in the case of' no maintaining the safe distance', ZINB models were also analyzed to be the best fit to the data. Finally, such the common variables as traffic volume and width of circular roadway were selected as the independent variables. The more traffic volume and the less width of circulatory roadway were evaluated to make the more accidents. Such the specific variables as the number of approach lanes and speed reduction facilities were selected as the explanatory variables. The more approach lanes and the less speed reduction facilities were evaluated to give the more accidents. This study might be expected to give some implications to the accident research on the circular intersections.

A Study on Bicycle Accident Patterns at Urban Intersections (도시부 교차로에서의 자전거 사고유형 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Do-Hoon;Cho, Han-Seon;Kim, Eung-Cheol
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.117-125
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    • 2008
  • Recently, users of bicycles as a green mode are rising sharply, but there are few efforts to increase bicycle safety and to decrease the number of accidents between vehicles and bicycle users. Therefore, this research seeks to improve bicycle safety at intersections by analysing causation factors of bicycle accidents pattern and providing optimal intersection design guidelines. For this study, real bicycle accident data of fifty six occurred in the Incheon metropolitan area in the year of 2005 were collected and field surveys were conducted. In addition, this research developed a bicycle accident pattern model with using multinomial logit model. The model results showed that presence of fatality, presence of traffic islands on the minor road, highway_type, weather, presence of traffic bus_stop on the major road, minor road lane width, victim induce factor are significant for bicycle safety.

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Characteristics and Severity of Side Right-Angle Collisions at Signalized Intersections (신호교차로의 측면직각 층돌사고 특성과 심각도)

  • Park, Jeong-Soon;Park, Gil-Soo;Kim, Tae-Young;Park, Byung-Ho
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.199-211
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    • 2008
  • This study deals with the side right-angle collisions of 4-legged signalized intersections in Cheongju. The goals are to analyze the characteristics of accidents and to find out the accident factors that affect severity using ordered probit model. In pursuing the above, the study uses the data of 580 side right-angle collisions occurred at the 181 intersections(2004-2005). The analyses show that more accidents were occurred in the nighttime and in going straight. The main cause was analyzed to be the red-light violation. Also, the main results of modeling are the following, First, the likelihood ratio index is 0.094 and t-ratio values that explain goodness of fit are significant. Second, minor road traffic volumes, minor road lanes, major road left-turn lanes, major road left-turn signal, major road yellow signal time, cross angle, major and minor road speed limits are significant factors affecting crash severities at signalized intersections.

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