• Title/Summary/Keyword: 비례이동평균법

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Projection of the student number by logistic function and proportional moving average model (로지스틱함수모형과 비례이동평균모형에 의한 학생 수 추계와 분석)

  • Song, Pil-Jun;Kim, Jong-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.503-511
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    • 2010
  • The goal of this paper is to suggest an algorithm to get the number of student on the elementary, meddle and high-school for the forecasting of the numbers of student by the moving average method using a proportional expression. Comparing with the results of Korean education statistical system 2005, 2006, and 2007, the results of this paper are better than those of the Korean education statistical system.

Projections of the high-school graduate in Daegu·Gyoungbook (대구·경북지역의 고등학교 3학년 학생수 추계)

  • Kim, Jongtae
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.907-914
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    • 2015
  • Reduction in the number of students due to the low birth rate has notice very many changes in the national education policies. The purpose of this study is to propose a method for estimation of the number of students (the population) by age or grade promotion rate of progression rate to estimate the exact number of students (the population) by 2032. It was suggested the nth moving average proportional method and the weighted proportional moving average method as the method of population projections. It presents the means and standard deviations of the measurement errors of the suggested methods by Monte Carlo simulation. Measured in this study are predicted result was a phenomenon is estimated lower than the actual value.

Analysis of pollutant mixing on the water surface in rivers with GPS floaters (GPS부자를 이용한 하천 표면에서의 오염물질 혼합 거동 해석)

  • Seo, Il Won;Park, Inhwan;Kim, Young Do;Han, Eun Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.103-103
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    • 2015
  • 유류유출사고와 같이 하천 수표면의 흐름에 따라 이동 확산하는 부유성 오염물질의 혼합해석을 위해 많은 연구자들은 입자추적모형을 사용한 혼합모의를 수행해왔다. 입자추적모형에서 오염물질의 혼합은 평균 유속 분포에 의한 결정론적인 이동과 난류유동에 의한 무작위적인 혼합으로 나타내며, 난류혼합에 의한 수평확산은 난류확산계수로 조절한다. 따라서 표면흐름에 의한 난류확산계수의 산정을 위해 많은 연구자들은 부유성 입자를 이용한 실내실험을 수행하여 수평확산계수를 산정했고(Engelund, 1969; Cederwall, 1971), 최근에는 GPS의 발전으로 인해 해양영역에서 GPS를 장착한 표면부자를 활용한 확산실험을 통해 수평확산계수를 산정한 바 있다(Kjellson and $D{\ddot{o}}{\ddot{o}}s$, 2012; Alpers 등, 2013). 하천수질오염사고의 약 43.5%가 유류유출에 의한 것이며(환경부, 2013), 이에 따라 표면흐름에 의한 오염물질 혼합해석이 필요하나, 하천에서 수평확산계수 산정을 위한 현장실험연구는 부족한 상황이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 낙동강 본류에서 GPS부자를 이용한 입자추적실험을 수행하여 표면흐름에 의한 확산계수를 산정했다. GPS부자를 이용한 입자추적실험은 낙동강의 강정고령보 하류와 구미보 하류의 각각 세 지점에서 수행되었다. GPS부자는 바람에 의한 교란을 최소화하기 위해 지름 10 cm의 구형으로 제작하였으며 시범테스트를 통해 입자의 주 궤적 변화가 크지 않은 지점에 GPS부자를 투입했다. GPS부자는 오염물질의 사고유출을 가정하여 한 지점에 투입했고 GPS부자 사이의 간섭을 최소화하기 위해 25 ~ 35개의 GPS부자를 이용했다. 표면흐름에 의해 이동하는 부자의 위치는 GPS에 시계열로 저장됐고 ADCP를 이용하여 실험당시의 수리량을 측정했다. 입자위치의 시계열자료로부터 GPS부자의 확산범위의 시간변화를 계산했고 단순 모멘트법을 이용하여 종, 횡 방향 확산계수를 계산했다. 그 결과, 종 방향 확산계수는 $0.003{\sim}0.041m^2/s$로 계산되었고 횡 방향 확산 계수는 $0.001{\sim}0.012m^2/s$로 계산되어, 흐름방향의 유속성분에 의한 확산이 지배적인 것으로 나타났다. 지류 합류부에서는 이송이 지배적인 혼합이 발생되었고(Pe>1) Pe의 증가에 따라 수평확산계수가 감소되었다. 25~35개 GPS부자 궤적의 앙상블 평균으로부터 계산한 Integral time scale은 모멘트법으로부터 계산한 종, 횡 방향 확산계수와 비례하는 것으로 나타나, Taylor(1921)의 이론과 일치했다. 또한 실험수로에서 수행된 기존연구결과와 비교한 결과, 하폭 대 수심비, 마찰항의 증가에 따라 수평확산계수가 증가하는 경향을 나타내었다.

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Deterioration Diagnosis of Epoxy Mold-type Transformer Using Ultrasonic Waves (초음파를 이용한 에폭시 몰드변압기의 열화 진단)

  • 이상우;김인식;이동인;이광식;이동희
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.73-81
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    • 1999
  • Measurements of ultrasonic signals caused by partial discharges were perlonnrl by using an ultrasonic measurement technique to diagnose the electrical treeing deterioration in an epoxy mold-type power transformer. We also examined the characteristics of tree growth, partial discharge magnitude and ultrasonic pulse number with the increase of the deterioration time. From these results, it was found that the shape of the tree was a branch-type, and the rates of the tree growth were examined when ac voltages of 16[kV] and 20[kV] were applied Ultrasonic pulse number and discharge magnitude were rapidly increased as the length of the tree grows after the middle stage of the deterioration time, and it appeared that ultrasonic pulse number was proportional to discharge magnitude. Attenuation, time-delaying and directivity characteristics of ultrasonic signals propagated into epoxy resin by using ultrasonic oscillation and receiving systems are also re[prted as a basic data of ultrasonic mesasurements in mold-type power transformer.former.

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An Influence of the Korean Wave on Chinese Tourism to South Korea (중국인의 방한관광에 대한 한류의 영향)

  • Choi, Kyung-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.526-539
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of the Korean Wave on Chinese tourism to South Korea through a behavioral analysis of Chinese tourists in the general group package tours. China suppressed the needs of the Chinese people's geographical movement and imposed restrictions on information about the outside world with the use of a policy of "closure" for a long time. But since reforms and open-door policies were introduced in China, especially in the context of relaxation of control policies over Chinese outbound tourism after the mid-1990's, more and more Chinese make trips abroad including visits to South Korea. In this situation, the recent Korean Wave(especially, drama/film) describes the Korean national image by forming a bridge between fiction and reality and plays a pivotal role in broadening or reconstructing the geographical imagination of the Chinese people who have been historically isolated from the outside world. Although Chinese have imagined the Korean nationscape on the basis of geopolitical or economic factors in the past, they have currently broadened or reconstructed their geographical imagination to include socio-cultural factors related closely to the Korean way of life due to the recent Korean Wave. This newly constructed geographical imagination led by the Korean Wave functions as an important pulling factor in Chinese destination choices, affecting Chinese tourists' motivation formation and the recommendation of main attractions. The more influential the Korean Wave is on their destination choice, the more the respondents select the cultural factors in both their motivation for tourism to South Korea and their recommendations of tourism attractions to other people. Through the analysis results of both satisfaction and intention to revisit, the more influential the Korean Wave is on their destination choice, the higher is the degree of both satisfaction and intention to revisit. In other words, although Chinese tourism to South Korea is chiefly in the general group package tours, Chinese tourists who are influenced by Korean Wave on their destination choice have more attachment to(or affection for) Korea as a tourism destination. This result suggests that the Korean Wave affects qualitative change - that is, change of attitude - as well as quantitative change in Chinese demand for tourism to South Korea.

Locational Analysis and Classification of the Eup-Settlements in the Joseon Dynasty Period from Feng-Shui's Point of View (조선시대 지방도시의 풍수적 입지분석과 경관유형- 경상도 71개 읍치를 대상으로 -)

  • Choi, Won-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.540-559
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this paper is to analyse the locations and to interpret the landscapes of the local towns in Joseon Dynasty from Feng-shui's point of view. As a result of analysing the locations of towns in Gyeongsang Province, the towns which have typical Feng-shui landscapes make up to 58% of the total. Historically, the local towns that were established in the early period of the Joseon Dynasty didn't reveal Feng-shui's landscape, but those that were established in the late period of the Joseon Dynasty revealed the Feng-shui's landscape clearly. In this article, I classify the local towns of the Gyeongsang Province into 3 types: 1. Non Feng-shui type These towns are located near the seashore. The main reason that these towns were located at the seashore was defense against an enemy. 2. Semi Feng-shui type. These towns don't have natural location but have a man-made landscape, based on the principles of Feng-shui. 3. Typical Feng-shui type. These towns were typically administrational towns which were located at the center of a local region.