• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2000.03b
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• pp.365-372
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• 2000

현장상황에 대한 불충분한 자료와 파괴 메커니즘에 대한 불완전한 이해로 인해 발생하는 가변성(variability)과 불확실성(uncertainty)은 암반사면공학뿐만 아니라 지반공학에서 흔히 접하게 되는 문제점이다. 특히 암반사면공학에서는 이러한 가변성과 불확실성이 불연속면의 방향 및 기하학적 특성, 그리고 실내실험 결과의 분산으로 나타난다. 그러나 안전율(factor of safety)의 개념을 기초로 하는 전통적인 결정론적 해석방법(deterministic analysis)은 이러한 분산을 고려하지 않은 채 단일 대표 값만을 이용하여 구조물의 안정성을 판단하여 왔다. 확률론적 해석방법(probabilistic analysis)은 이러한 가변성과 불확실성을 효과적으로 정량화하여 해석에 이용할 수 있는 방법 중의 하나로 제안되었다. 이러한 해석방법은 불연속면의 기하학적 특성과 강도 특성을 확률변수(random variable)로 취급하여 신뢰성이론(reliability theory)과 확률이론(probability theory)을 근거로 분석하였으며 이를 기초로 하여 Monte Carlo Simulation과 같은 해석법을 이용, 구조물의 붕괴가능성을 확률로 표현하였다. 확률론적 해석 방법은 기존의 안전율을 대체하여 구조물의 안정성을 붕괴확률(probability of failure)로 제안하였으며 이 붕괴확률은 안전율의 확률분포함수 (probability density function)에서 안전율이 1보다 작을 가능성을 확률로 나타낸 수치이다. 본 논문에서는 확률론적 해석방법을 이용하여 불연속면 특성들의 확률특성을 고찰하였으며 이를 기초로 하여 암반사면의 안정성 해석에 응용했다.

• Magazine of the Korea Institute for Structural Maintenance and Inspection
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.85-91
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• 2013

일정 지역 교량 붕괴 DB를 활용하여 붕괴 원인을 파악하고 붕괴율과 붕괴확률을 결정하였다. 붕괴 원인을 타연구와 비교하였으며 주요 원인은 수압에 의해 발생함을 알 수 있었다. 매년 발생가능한 교량 붕괴율은 1/4,700정도 였으며, 이 수치는 미국 전역에 적용 가능할 것으로 추정한다. 현행 교량설계법과 비교하기 위해 설계수명 75년 동안의 파괴확률을 계산한 결과 1/63정도로서 LRFD 설계법에서 제시하는 파괴확률 1/5,000보다 높았다. 붕괴된 교량의 준공시점과 설계법 변천에 따른 붕괴율 차이는 확인하기 어려웠다. 미국 전체 교량에 대해 붕괴율을 적용한 결과 매년 87건에서 222건 정도의 붕괴가 발생할 것으로 예상한다.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.295-307
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• 2000

Probabilistic analysis is a powerful method to quantify variability and uncertainty common in engineering geology fields. In rock slope engineering, the uncertainty and variation may be in the form of scatter in orientations and geometries of discontinuities, and also test results. However, in the deterministic analysis, the factor of safety which is used to ensure stability of rock slopes, is based on the fixed representative values for each parameter without a consideration of the scattering in data. For comparison, in the probabilistic analysis, these discontinuity parameters are considered as random variables, and therefore, the reliability and probability theories are utilized to evaluate the possibility of slope failure. Therefore, in the probabilistic analysis, the factor of safety is considered as a random variable and replaced by the probability of failure to measure the level of slope stability. In this study, the stochastic properties of discontinuity parameters are evaluated and the stability of rock slope is analyzed based on the random properties of discontinuity parameters. Then, the results between the deterministic analysis and the probabilistic analysis are compared and the differences between the two analysis methods are explained.

• Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.369-376
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• 2017

This paper is the sequel of a companion paper (I. Seismic Design) for design and assessment of the torsional irregular structure using ASCE 7-10 criteria. This study evaluates the influence of torsional provisions on the performance of the designed steel moment frame with different eccentricity, taking the collapse probability as performance metric using the methodology in FEMA P695. The result show that torsional irregular structure designed according to ASCE 7-10 has an excessive seismic performance and the collapse strength is low as the eccentricity increases. To make the design reasonable, a new design approach is proposed in this study.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.371-380
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• 2017

The risk-targeted seismic design concept was first included in ASCE/SEI 7-10 to address problems related to the uniform-hazard based seismic concept that has been constructed without explicitly considering probabilistic uncertainties in the collapse capacities of structures. However, this concept is not yet reflected to the current Korean building code(KBC) because of insufficient strong earthquake data occurred at the Korean peninsula and little information on the collapse capacities of structures. This study evaluates the risk-targeted seismic performance of steel ordinary concentrically braced frames(OCBFs). To do this, the collapse capacities of prototype steel OCBFs are assessed with various analysis parameters including building locations, building heights and soil conditions. The seismic hazard curves are developed using an empirical spectral shape prediction model that is capable of reflecting the characteristics of earthquake records. The collapse probabilities of the prototype steel OCBFs located at the Korean major cities are then evaluated using the risk integral concept. As a result, analysis parameters considerably influence the collapse probabilities of steel OCBFs. The collapse probabilities of taller steel OCBFs exceed the target seismic risk of 1 percent in 50 years, which the introduction of the height limitation of steel OCBFs into the future KBC should be considered.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.377-377
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• 2020

이상기후변화에 따른 홍수피해는 매년 빈번히 발생하고 있고, 이러한 피해에 대비하여 예측 및 대응방안을 신속히 확보할 수 있는 재난예측 및 대응시스템은 필수로 요구되는 실정이다. 강우의 의한 홍수발생과 하천수위 급상승에 의한 제방의 월류 및 파제 메커니즘은 상당히 복잡하고 유동적이며 다양한 불확실성을 포함한다. 본 연구에서는 극치 강수량의 매개변수들의 불확실성을 고려하기 위해 수행된 비정상성 빈도해석 기반의 수문시나리오를 바탕으로 산정된 MCS(Monte Carlo Simulation)기반 확률홍수위를 산정하였고, 이를 활용하여 2차원 제내지 침수해석의 경계조건으로 활용하여 홍수위 변동에 의한 하천 제방 붕괴 변동폭의 범위를 설정하고, 그에 따른 제방붕괴 유출량의 변동 범위를 산정하였다. 또한 확률론적 파제 유입량에 의한 제내지의 침수심과 침수범위를 MCS기반의 2차원 제내지 침수해석을 통해 정량화하여 확률침수심도를 작성하였다. 이러한 홍수발생의 전반적인 메커니즘을 고려하여 매개변수들의 불확실도를 정량적으로 평가함으로써 기존의 결정론적 해석기법보다 신뢰성 있는 침수심 예측결과를 확보하였다.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.115-124
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• 1993

A structural system reliability analysis is studied for the safety assessment of midship section. Probabilistically dominant collapse modes are generated by Element Replacement Method and Incrimental Load Method. In order to avoid generating the same modes repeatedly, it is branched at final plastic hinge. Using first and second order bound methods, system failure probability of midship section is computed and compared with deterministic load factor method to show the usefulness of the proposed method.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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• v.9 no.11
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• pp.125-133
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• 2019

In this paper, probabilistic flood risk maps were produced for levee break caused by possible flood scenarios. The results of the previous studies were employed for flood stages corresponding to hydrological extreme event quantified uncertainties and then predicted the location of a levee breach. The breach width was estimated by combining empirical equation considered constant width and numerical modeling considered uncertainties on compound geotechnical component. Accordingly, probabilistic breach outflow was computed and probabilistic inundation map was produced by 100 runs of 2D inundation simulation based on reliability analysis. The final probabilistic flood risk map was produced by combining probabilistic inundation map based on flood hazard mapping methodology. The outcomes of the study would be effective in establishing specified emergency actin plan (EAP) and expect to suggest more economical and stable design index.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.9-20
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• 2014

Steel intermediate moment frames (IMFs) have been generally used as seismic load resisting systems (SLRSs) of a building to provide resistances against strong ground shaking. However, most of low and mid-rise steel buildings in Korea were constructed during pre-seismic code era or before the introduction of well-organized current seismic codes. It has been recognized that the seismic performance of these steel IMFs is still questionable. In order to respond to such a question, this study quantitatively investigates the seismic capacities of steel IMFs. Prototype models are built according to the number of stories, the levels of elastic seismic design base shear and the ductilities of structural components. Also, the other prototype models employing hysteretic energy dissipating devices (HEDDs) are considered. The collapse mechanism and the seismic performance of the prototype models are then described based on the results obtained from nonlinear-static and incremental-dynamic analyses. The seismic performance of the prototype models is assessed from collapse margin ratio (CMR) and collapse probability. From the assessment, the prototype model representing new steel IMFs has enough seismic capacities while, the prototype models representing existing steel IMFs provide higher collapse probabilities. From the analytic results of the prototype models retrofitted with HEDDs, the HEDDs enhance the seismic performance and collapse capacity of the existing steel IMFs. This is due to the energy dissipating capacity of the HEDDs and the redistribution of plastic hinges.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2010.04a
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• pp.289-292
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• 2010

본 연구에서는 기둥이 제거되는 경우 선형정적해석법을 사용하여 부재력을 산정하고 확률 신경망을 이용하여 그 분포를 파악하였다. 1층 내부기둥이 제거될 경우 다른 부재의 부재력이 가장 큰 것으로 나타났다. 확룰신경망을 이용하여 부재력의 분포를 파악하고 추정하는 것은 연쇄붕괴 시 초고층 건물이나 비정형 건물에 대한 위험부재를 선정하고 파악하는데 시간과 노력을 경감할 수 있는 것으로 나타났다.