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http://dx.doi.org/10.22156/CS4SMB.2019.9.11.125

Development of Probabilistic Flood Risk Map Considering Uncertainty of Levee Break  

Nam, Myeong-Jun (Fusion Research Institute, Sinwoo CO., LTD.)
Lee, Jae-Young (Fusion Research Institute, Sinwoo CO., LTD.)
Lee, Chang-Hee (Department of Fire and Disaster Prevention Engineering, Jungwon University)
Publication Information
Journal of Convergence for Information Technology / v.9, no.11, 2019 , pp. 125-133 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this paper, probabilistic flood risk maps were produced for levee break caused by possible flood scenarios. The results of the previous studies were employed for flood stages corresponding to hydrological extreme event quantified uncertainties and then predicted the location of a levee breach. The breach width was estimated by combining empirical equation considered constant width and numerical modeling considered uncertainties on compound geotechnical component. Accordingly, probabilistic breach outflow was computed and probabilistic inundation map was produced by 100 runs of 2D inundation simulation based on reliability analysis. The final probabilistic flood risk map was produced by combining probabilistic inundation map based on flood hazard mapping methodology. The outcomes of the study would be effective in establishing specified emergency actin plan (EAP) and expect to suggest more economical and stable design index.
Keywords
Uncertainty Analysis; Levee Break; Inundation simulation; Probabilistic Inundation Map; Priobabilistic Flood Risk Map;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 3  (Citation Analysis)
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