• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.47-55
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• 2020

This paper presents a real-time autonomous computation of shot numbers and aiming points against multiple soft targets on grounds by applying an unsupervised learning, k-mean clustering and Monte carlo simulation. For this computation, a 100 × 200 square meters size of virtual battlefield is created where an augmented enemy infantry platoon unit attacks, defences, and is scatted, and a virtual weapon with a lethal range of 15m is modeled. In order to determine damage types of the enemy unit: no damage, light wound, heavy wound and death, Monte carlo simulation is performed to apply the Carlton damage function for the damage effect of the soft targets. In addition, in order to achieve the damage effectiveness of the enemy units in line with the commander's intention, the optimal shot numbers and aiming point locations are calculated in less than 0.4 seconds by applying the k-mean clustering and repetitive Monte carlo simulation. It is hoped that this study will help to develop a system that reduces the decision time for 'detection-decision-shoot' process in battalion-scaled combat units operating Dronebot combat system.

• Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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• v.41 no.7
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• pp.481-491
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• 2014

The power production using renewable energy is more important because of a limited amount of fossil fuel and the problem of global warming. A concentrative photovoltaic system comes into the spotlight with high energy production, since the rate of power production using solar energy is proliferated. These systems, however, need to sophisticated tracking methods to give the high power production. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical tracking system using modular Bayesian networks and a naive Bayes classifier. The Bayesian networks can respond flexibly in uncertain situations and can be designed by domain knowledge even when the data are not enough. Bayesian network modules infer the weather states which are classified into nine classes. Then, naive Bayes classifier selects the most effective method considering inferred weather states and the system makes a decision using the rules. We collected real weather data for the experiments and the average accuracy of the proposed method is 93.9%. In addition, comparing the photovoltaic efficiency with the pinhole camera system results in improved performance of about 16.58%.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.9
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• pp.711-720
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• 2011

SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was calibrated for the flow rate of the Deachung lake with a large area of 3108.29 $km^2$. Application of SWAT model requires significant number of input data and is prone to result in uncertainties due to errors in input data, model structure and model parameters. The SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Ver. 2) program and GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) program in SWAT-CUP (SWAT-Calibration and Uncertainty Program) are used to select the best parameters for SWAT model. Optimal combination of parameter values was determined through 2,000 iterative SWAT model runs. The Nash-Sutcliffe values and $R^2$ values were 0.87 and 0.89 respectively indicating both methods show good agreements with observed data successfully. RMSE and MSE values also showed similar results for both programs. It seems the SWAT-CUP has a great practical appeal for parameter optimization especially for large basin area and it also can be used for less experienced SWAT model users.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.41 no.5
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• pp.478-489
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• 2020

This study presents an analysis of infrasonic signals from two accidental explosions in Gwangyang city, Jeonnam Province, Korea, on December 24, 2019, recorded at 12 infrasound stations located 151-435 km away. Infrasound propagation refracted at an altitude of ~40 km owing to higher stratospheric wind in the NNW direction, resulting in favorable detection at stations in that direction. However, tropospheric phases were observed at stations located in the NE and E directions from the explosion site because of the strong west wind jet formed at ~10 km. The transmission losses on the propagation path were calculated using the effective sound velocity structure and parabolic equation modeling. Based on the losses, the observed signal amplitudes were corrected, and overpressures were estimated at the reference distance. From the overpressures, the source energy was evaluated through the overpressure-explosive charge relationship. The two explosions were found to have energies equivalent to 14 and 65 kg TNT, respectively. At the first explosion, a flying fragment forced by an explosive shock wave was observed in the air. The energy causing the flying fragment was estimated to be equivalent to 49 kg or less of TNT, obtained from the relationship between the fragment motion and overpressure. Our infrasound propagation modeling is available to constrain the source energy for remote explosions. To enhance the confidence in energy estimations, further studies are required to reflect the uncertainty of the atmospheric structure models on the estimations and to verify the relationships by various ground truth explosions.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.37 no.5
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• pp.47-63
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• 2021

Recently, the demand for three-dimensional (3D) underground maps from the perspective of digital twins and the demand for linkage utilization are increasing. However, the vastness of national geotechnical survey data and the uncertainty in applying geostatistical techniques pose challenges in modeling underground regional geotechnical characteristics. In this study, an optimal learning model based on multi-layer perceptron (MLP) was constructed for 3D subsurface lithological and geotechnical classification in Seoul, South Korea. First, the geotechnical layer and 3D spatial coordinates of each borehole dataset in the Seoul area were constructed as a geotechnical database according to a standardized format, and data pre-processing such as correction and normalization of missing values for machine learning was performed. An optimal fitting model was designed through hyperparameter optimization of the MLP model and model performance evaluation, such as precision and accuracy tests. Then, a 3D grid network locally assigning geotechnical layer classification was constructed by applying an MLP-based bet-fitting model for each unit lattice. The constructed 3D geotechnical layer map was evaluated by comparing the results of a geostatistical interpolation technique and the topsoil properties of the geological map.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.21 no.11
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• pp.77-86
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• 2021

A method of constructing a war simulation based on Bayesian Inference was proposed as a method of constructing heterogeneous historical war data obtained with a time difference into a single model. A method of applying a linear regression model can be considered as a method of predicting future battles by analyzing historical war results. However it is not appropriate for two heterogeneous types of historical data that reflect changes in the battlefield environment due to different times to be suitable as a single linear regression model and violation of the model's assumptions. To resolve these problems a Bayesian inference method was proposed to obtain a post-distribution by assuming the data from the previous era as a non-informative prior distribution and to infer the final posterior distribution by using it as a prior distribution to analyze the data obtained from the next era. Another advantage of the Bayesian inference method is that the results sampled by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method can be used to infer posterior distribution or posterior predictive distribution reflecting uncertainty. In this way, it has the advantage of not only being able to utilize a variety of information rather than analyzing it with a classical linear regression model, but also continuing to update the model by reflecting additional data obtained in the future.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.12
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• pp.1115-1124
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• 2022

The impact of climate change on water resources was evaluated for Chungju Dam and Soyang-gang Dam basins by constructing an integrated modeling framework consisting of a dam inflow prediction model based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, a distributed hydrologic model, and an LSTM based dam outflow prediction model. Considering the uncertainty of future climate data, four models of CMIP6 GCM were used as input data of VIC model for future period (2021-2100). As a result of applying future climate data, the average inflow for period increased as the future progressed, and the inflow in the far future (2070-2100) increased by up to 22% compared to that of the observation period (1986-2020). The minimum value of dam discharge lasting 4~50 days was significantly lower than the observed value. This indicates that droughts may occur over a longer period than observed in the past, meaning that citizens of Seoul metropolitan areas may experience severe water shortages due to future droughts. In addition, compared to the near and middle futures, the change in water storage has occurred rapidly in the far future, suggesting that the difficulties of water resource management may increase.

• Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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• v.37 no.9
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• pp.712-721
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• 2010

This paper proposes a new fire-flame detection method using probabilistic membership function of visual features and Fuzzy Finite Automata (FFA). First, moving regions are detected by analyzing the background subtraction and candidate flame regions then identified by applying flame color models. Since flame regions generally have continuous and an irregular pattern continuously, membership functions of variance of intensity, wavelet energy and motion orientation are generated and applied to FFA. Since FFA combines the capabilities of automata with fuzzy logic, it not only provides a systemic approach to handle uncertainty in computational systems, but also can handle continuous spaces. The proposed algorithm is successfully applied to various fire videos and shows a better detection performance when compared with other methods.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.101-111
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• 1993

Many processes such as machining, injection-moulding and metal-forming are usually operated by hydraulic servo-systems. The dynamic characteristics of these systems are complex and highly non-linear and are often subjected to the uncertain external disturbances associated with the processes. Consequently, the conventional approach to the controller design for these systems may not guarantee accurate tracking control performance. An effective neuro-fuzzy controller is proposed to realize an accurate hydraulic servo-system regardless of the uncertainties and the external disturbances. For this purpose, first, we develop a simplified fuzzy logic controller which have multidimensional and unsymmetric membership functions. Secondly, we develop a neural network which consists of the parameters of the fuzzy logic controller. It is show that the neural network has both learning capability and linguistic representation capability. The proposed controller was implemented on a hydraulic servo-system. Feedback error learning architecture is adopted which uses the feedback error directly without passing through the dynamics or inverse transfer function of the hydraulic servo-system to train the neuro-fuzzy controller. A series of simulations was performed for the position-tracking control of the system subjected to external disturbances. The results of simulations show that regardless of inherent non-linearities and disturbances, an accuracy tracking-control performance is obtained using the proposed neuro-fuzzy controller.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.81-93
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• 2019

As customers' needs are more diversified, the issue of managing product variety has become more important to manufacturers. It is because an increase in product variety may cause various inefficiencies in operations, while satisfying more diverse needs. Consequently, firms have introduced the concept of modularity to improve operational performance. Yet there are only a few studies which analytically investigate the effect of modularity in new product development (NPD). Therefore, this research develops an analytical model of exploring the effect of modularity on firm profitability when a component built upon new technology is introduced into an existing product, and provides important managerial implications on the NPD and technology management, which can guide the decision making on modularity in practice. The results show that it is necessary to increase modularity level when i) the product is easy to upgrade, ii) the product's price should be high due to external factors, and iii) the effect of new technology investment is uncertain, while it is desirable to increase the investment cost for introducing new products with low demand elasticity for modularity.