• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.4B
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• pp.383-392
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• 2008

It is not always easy to estimate the parameters in hydrologic models due to insufficient hydrologic data when hydraulic structures are designed or water resources plan are established. Therefore, uncertainty analysis are inevitably needed to examine reliability for the estimated results. With regard to this point, this study applies a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme to the NWS-PC rainfall-runoff model that has been widely used, and a case study is performed in Soyang Dam watershed in Korea. The NWS-PC model is calibrated against observed daily runoff, and thirteen parameters in the model are optimized as well as posterior distributions associated with each parameter are derived. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo shows a improved result in terms of statistical performance measures and graphical examination. The patterns of runoff can be influenced by various factors and the Bayesian approaches are capable of translating the uncertainties into parameter uncertainties. One could provide against an unexpected runoff event by utilizing information driven by Bayesian methods. Therefore, the rainfall-runoff analysis coupled with the uncertainty analysis can give us an insight in evaluating flood risk and dam size in a reasonable way.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.39 no.12
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• pp.1107-1114
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• 2011

In this paper, the fatigue life of a laser peened structure was predicted. In order to calculate residual stress induced by laser peening finite element simulation was carried out. Modified Goodman equation was used to consider the effect of compressive residual stress induced by laser peening in fatigue analysis. In addition, additive adjustment factor approach was applied to consider S-N curve model uncertainty. Consequently, the reliable bounds of the predicted fatigue life of the laser peened structure was determined.

• Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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• 1997.10a
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• pp.259-264
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• 1997

본 논문에서는 Westinghouse(WH)사에서 공급한 고리 3, 4호기의 증기발생기 모델에 강인제어 기법의 하나인 QFT(Quantitative Feedback Theory)를 적용하여 플랜트에 존재하는 불확실성이나 외란에 대해 강인성을 보장하는 제어기를 설계하였다. 증기발생기의 주파수응답 한계조건은 MATLAB QFT Toolbox를 이용하였으며, loop shaping에 의한 전달함수 식별을 위해서 근사화 기법을 적용하였다. 그리고 5∼20[%]의 저출력구간에서 모의실험을 하여 본 논문의 유용성을 보였다.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.605-613
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• 2014

Epistemic uncertainty, the lack of knowledge, is often more important than aleatory uncertainty, variability, in estimating reliability of a system. While the probability theory is widely used for modeling aleatory uncertainty, there is no dominant approach to model epistemic uncertainty. Different approaches have been developed to handle epistemic uncertainties using various theories, such as probability theory, fuzzy sets, evidence theory and possibility theory. However, since these methods are developed from different statistics theories, it is difficult to interpret the result from one method to the other. The goal of this paper is to compare different methods in handling epistemic uncertainty in the view point of calculating the probability of failure. In particular, four different methods are compared; the probability method, the combined distribution method, interval analysis method, and the evidence theory. Characteristics of individual methods are compared in the view point of reliability analysis.

• Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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• 1995.05a
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• pp.911-918
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• 1995

동적섭식경로모델을 사용하여 "목초$\longrightarrow$우유$\longrightarrow$사람"의 핵종이동 경로에 대해 침적시점에 따른 입력변수의 민감도와 결과에 대한 불확실성분석을 수행하였다. Cs-137과 Sr-90의 경우 모든 침적시점에 대해 재부유인자가 가장 높은 중요도를 보였다. 두 핵종에 대해 침적시점에 따른 입력변수의 중요도의 변화는 비슷한 유형을 보였다. 목초의 성장기에서 전이율이 상대적으로 중요도가 높았고, Cs-137의 전이율은 Sr-90의 경우보다 높은 중요도를 나타냈다. 목초의 비성장기에서 Sr-90에 대한 농축인자의 중요도는 매우 높았다. Cs-137과 Sr-90에 의한 피폭선량의 95% 신뢰도구간은 약 1 $\times$ $10^1$, 5 $\times$ $10^1$ 범위를 나타냈다. 범위를 나타냈다.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.161-189
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• 2010

Dealing with uncertainty has been a critical issue in demographic and population forecasting since 1980. This study reviews methodological developments in demographic and population forecasting over the last several decades. First, this study reviews the important issue of the uncertainty surrounding demographic forecasts. Several limitations of the traditional scenario approach to dealing with uncertainty are also discussed. Second, in forecasting demographic processes such as mortality, fertility, and migration, three approaches of stochastic forecasting are identified and discussed: expert judgment, statistical modeling, and analysis of historical forecast errors. Finally, this study discusses the current issues and directions for future research in stochastic demographic forecasting.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.259-265
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• 2011

유량조사 자료는 하천유역의 물순환 구조 파악, 하천시설의 설치, 각종 수공 구조물의 설계, 하천 주변지역의 이용 및 관리 등 수자원 계획을 위한 기초자료로 다방면에서 활용되고 있다. 국토해양부는 전국 수위관측소를 대상으로 매년 100여개 지점에서 유량조사을 실시하고 있으며, 측정된 성과에 대한 체계적인 품질관리와 연구개발을 통해 유량자료의 품질향상 및 안정화를 위해 노력하고 있다. 본 연구는 2010년도 유량조사사업에서 수행한 4대강 권역 12개 수계 153개 지점에서 수행된 유량 측정성과에 대해서 수리특성 분석, 최대구간유량비 분석, 하천폭에 따른 측선수 비교, 불확실도 분석을 수행하였다. 또한 개발된 수위-유량관계곡선식을 통하여 산정된 유량자료에 대하여 연유출률 평가, 상 하류간 유량 비교, 연유출총량 등을 비교하여 산정된 유량자료의 적절성을 검토하였다. 2010년 조사자료의 측선수 평균은 유속계 36.7개, 부자 14.3개, 최대구간유량비는 유속계 6.7%, 부자 13.9%, 불확실도는 유속계 4.0%, 부자 7.7%로 나타났다. 개발된 수위-유량관계곡선식을 활용해 산정된 유출률의 전체 평균값은 61%로 2009년에 비해 약 10% 크게 나타났다.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.630-635
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• 2018

In this paper, we consider the stability condition for the linear discrete systems with time-varying delay and unstructured uncertainty. The considered system has time invariant system matrices for non-delayed and delayed state variables, but its delay time is time-varying within certain interval and it is subjected to nonlinear unstructured uncertainty which only gives information on uncertainty magnitude. In the many previous literatures, the time-varying delay and unstructured uncertainty can not be dealt in simultaneously but separately. In the paper, new stability conditions are derived for the case to which two factors are subjected together and compared with the existing results considering only one factor. The new stability conditions improving many previous results are proposed as very effective inequality equations without complex numerical algorithms such as LMI(Linear Matrix Inequality) or Lyapunov equation. By numerical examples, it is shown that the proposed conditions are able to include the many existing results and have better performances in the aspects of expandability and effectiveness.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.24 no.1 s.87
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• pp.121-131
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• 2006

Considering characteristics of drivers and vehicles with proper and reliable ways in highway design Procedures can ensure high level of highway safety. However, it is almost impossible to take into account all factors of drivers and vehicles influencing on the highway safety because of their uncertain and random nature. To detour the dead-end, the nature are usually assumed as simple homogeneous and deterministic one. Although the restricted assumption makes the system simple, it can produce serious problems due to lack of considering variability in the system. This paper develops a reliability-based method for determining stopping sight distance(SSD) and intersection sight distance (ISD), which are crucial elements in highway alignment design. In the study, Hasofer-Lind method is adopted. which is a well-known first-order second moment reliability method (AFOSM) The results in this study show that if mean, variance, and distribution of a particular driver-vehicle parameter are known, more reliable sight distances can be applied in highway design procedures because we can reflect uncertainties and randomness. Thus, the Probabilistic method could be adopted in designing the sight distance(s) with the desired reliability level.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.3
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• pp.253-262
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• 2016

A Rating curve is a regression equation of discharge versus stage for a given point on a stream where the stream discharge is measured across the stream channel with a stage and discharge measurement. The curve is generally used to calculate discharge based on the stage. However, the existing approach showed problems in terms of estimating uncertainty associated with regression parameters including the separation parameter for low and high flow. In this regard, this study aimed to develop a new method for the aforementioned problems based on Bayesian approach, which can better estimate the parameter and its uncertainty. In addition, this study used a Bayesian Multi-Segmented (Bayesian M-S) model which is provided a comparison between the existing and proposed scheme. The proposed model showed better results for the parameter estimation than the existing approach, and provided better performance in terms of estimating uncertainty range.