• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실도 평가

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A Case Study on Venture and Small-Business Executives' Use of Strategic Intuition in the Decision Making Process (벤처.중소기업가의 전략적 직관에 의한 의사결정 모형에 대한 사례연구)

  • Park, Jong An;Kim, Young Su;Do, Man Seung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.15-23
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    • 2014
  • A Case Study on Venture and Small-Business Executives' Use of Strategic Intuition in the Decision Making Process This paper is a case study on how Venture and Small-Business Executives managers can take advantage of their intuitions in situations where the business environment is increasingly uncertain, a novel situation occurs without any data to reflect on, when rational decision-making is not possible, and when the business environment changes. The case study is based on a literature review, in-depth interviews with 16 business managers, and an analysis of Klein, G's (1998) "Generic Mental Simulation Model." The "intuition" discussed in this analysis is classified into two types of intuition: the Expert Intuition which is based on one's own experiences, and Strategic Intuition which is based on the experience of others. Case study strategic management intuition and intuition, the experts were utilized differently. Features of professional intuition to work quickly without any effort by, while the strategic intuition, is time-consuming. Another feature that has already occurred, one expert intuition in decision-making about the widely used strategic intuition was used a lot in future decision-making. The case study results revealed that managers were using expert intuition and strategic intuition differentially. More specifically, Expert Intuition was activated effortlessly, while strategic intuition required more time. Also, expert intuition was used mainly for making judgments about events that have already happened, while strategic intuition was used more often for judgments regarding events in the future. The process of strategic intuition involved (1) Strategic concerns, (2) the discovery of medium, (3) Primary mental simulation, (4) The offsetting of key parameters, (5) secondary mental simulation, and (6) the decision making process. These steps were used to develop the "Strategic Intuition Decision-making Model" for Venture and Small-Business Executives. The case study results further showed that firstly, the success of decision-making was determined in the "secondary mental simulation' stage, and secondly, that more difficulty in management was encountered when expert intuition was used more than strategic intuition and lastly strategic intuition is possible to be educated.

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Monte-Carlo Simulations of Non-ergodic Solute Transport from Line Sources in Isotropic Mildly Heterogeneous Aquifers (불균질 등방 대수층 내 선형오염원으로부터 기원된 비에르고딕 용질 이동에 관한 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션)

  • Seo Byong-min
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.20-31
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    • 2005
  • Three dimensional Monte-Carlo simulations of non-ergodic transport of a lion-reactive solute plume by steady-state groundwater flow under a uniform mean velocity in isotropic heterogeneous aquifers were conducted. The log-normally distributed hydraulic conductivity, K(x), is modeled as a random field. Significant efforts are made to reduce tile simulation uncertainties. Ensemble averages of the second spatial moments of the plume and plume centroid variances were simulated with 1600 Monte Carlo runs for three variances of log K, ${\sigma}_Y^2=0.09,\;0.23$, and 0.46, and three dimensionless lengths of line plume sources normal to the mean velocity. The simulated second spatial moment and the plume centroid variance in longitudinal direction fit well to the first order theoretical results while the simulated transverse moments are generally larger than the first order results. The first order theoretical results significantly underestimated the simulated dimensionless transverse moments for the aquifers of large ${\sigma}_Y^2$ and large dimensionless time. The ergodic condition for the second spatial moments is far from reaching in all cases simulated, and transport In transverse directions may reach ergodic condition much slower than that in longitudinal direction. The evolution of the contaminant transported in a heterogeneous aquifer is not affected by the shape of the initial plume but affected mainly by the degree of the heterogeneity and the size of the initial plume.

The Preventive Effect of Allergic Inflammation by Induction of Oral Tolerance in a Mouse Model of Chronic Asthma (마우스 만성천식모델에서 경구면역관용 유도에 의한 알레르기 염증의 예방효과)

  • Kim, Jin Sook;Lee, Jung Mi;Kim, Seung Joon;Lee, Sook Young;Kwon, Soon Seog;Kim, Young Kyoon;Kim, Kwan Hyoung;Moon, Hwa Sik;Song, Jeong Sup;Park, Sung Hak
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.57 no.5
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    • pp.425-433
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    • 2004
  • Background : Induction of oral tolerance (OT) has been known to prevent allergic inflammation in acute asthma model within 4 weeks. However it is remained whether induction of OT may effectively prevent allergic inflammation in chronic asthma model over 4 weeks. We observed the effect of induction of OT on allergic inflammation and airway remodeling in chronic asthma model up to 8 weeks. Methods : 5-week-old female BALB/c mice divided into 4 groups-control group, asthma group, low dose OT group, and high dose OT group. To induce oral tolerance mice were fed ovalbumin (OVA) before sensitization with OVA and aluminum hydroxide-1 mg for 6 consecutive days in the low dose OT group and 25 mg once in the high dose OT group. Mice in the asthma group were fed phosphate buffered saline instead of OVA. After sensitization followed by repeated challenge with aerosolized 1% OVA during 6 weeks, enhanced pause (Penh), inflammatory cells, IL-13, and IFN-${\gamma}$ levels in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluids as well as OVA-specific IgE, IgG1, and IgG2a levels in serum were measured. In addition the degree of goblet cell hyperplasia and peribronchial fibrosis were observed from lung tissues by PAS and Masson's trichrome stain. Results : Both OT groups showed a significant decrease in Penh, inflammatory cells, IL-13, and IFN-${\gamma}$ levels in BAL fluids as well as OVA-specific IgE, IgG1, and IgG2a levels in serum compared with the asthma group (P<0.05). In addition, the degree of goblet cell hyperplasia and peribronchial fibrosis were significantly attenuated in both OT groups compared with the asthma group (P<0.01). Conclusion : These results suggest that induction of OT may effectively prevent allergic inflammation as well as airway remodeling even in chronic asthma model up to 8 weeks.

Effect of Ground-fogging on Target and Non-target Insects in Korean Pine Forests (지상 연막 방제가 잣나무림 내 표적 및 비표적 곤충에 미치는 영향)

  • Jang, Tae Woon;Jung, Jong-Kook;Kim, Mannyeon;Kim, Jongkuk;Jung, Chansik;Koh, Sanghyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.106 no.4
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    • pp.509-517
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    • 2017
  • This study was conducted to assess effect of thiacloprid fogging on non-target insect communities in Korean white pine forests. In addition, we assessed effect of thiacloprid fogging on mortality of Monochamus saltuarius as a vector of pine wood nematodes, and Apis mellifera as a non-target species. We compared abundance, species richness, and compostion of insects, and mortality of two insects among four treatment groups (control and thiacloprid-fogged groups with 3 different doses) located in the Kangwon National University Forest. For sampling of insects, 6 pitfall and 2 multi-funnel traps and 3 waterproof cloth sheets were placed in each study plot. In addition, M. saltuarius and A. mellifera were put into each meshed cage which installed at 7 m and 15 m heights in center of each study plot. Thiacloprid was fogged only once (middle May) in each plot using a fogging machine. Overall, thiacloprid fogging was appeared to be low toxicity to the abundance, species richness, and compostion of insects and mortality of A. mellifera, while it seems effectively impact on the mortality of M. saltuarius. However, thiacloprid fogging seems more influenced by microclimates in forests because the mortality of M. saltuarius in mesh cages was different according to heights and spatial locations. To control the population density and dispersal of M. saltuarius using by fogging techniques, therefore, it may be necessary to minimize the uncertainty about the effectiveness of thiacloprid fogging by improving the fogging techniques.

Consideration of the Effect according to Variation of Material and Respiration in Cone-Beam CT (Cone-Beam CT에서 물질 및 호흡 변화가 영상에 미치는 영향에 대한 고찰)

  • Na, Jun-Young;Kim, Jung-Mi;Kim, Dae-Sup;Kang, Tae-Young;Baek, Geum-Mun;Kwon, Gyeong-Tae
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: Image Guided Radiation Therapy (IGRT) has been carried out using On-Board Imager system (OBI) in Asan Medical Center. For this reason, This study was to analyze and evaluate the impact on Cone-Beam CT according to variation of material and respiration. Materials and Methods: This study was to acquire and analyze Cone-Beam CT three times for two material: Cylider acryl (lung equvalent material, diameter 3 cm), Fiducial Marker (using clinic) under Motion Phantom able to adjust respiration pattern randomly was varying period, amplitude and baseline vis-a-vis reference respiration pattern. Results: First, According to a kind of material, when being showed 100% in the acryl and 120% in the Fiducial Marker under the condition of same movement of the motion phantom. Second, According to the respiratory alteration, when being showed 1.13 in the baseline shift 1.8 mm and 1.27 in the baseline shift 3.3 mm for acryl. when being showed 1.01 in 1 sec of period and 1.045 in 2.5 sec of period for acryl. When being showed 0.86 in 0.7 times the standard of amplitude and 1.43 in 1.7 times the standard of amplitude for acryl. when being showed 1.18 in the baseline shift 1.8 mm and 1.34 in the baseline shift 3.3 mm for Fiducial Marker. when being showed 1.0 in 1 sec of period and 1.0 in 2.5 sec of period for Fiducial Marker. When being showed 0.99 in 0.7 times the standard of amplitude and 1.66 in 1.7 times the standard of amplitude for Fiducial Marker. Conclusion: The effect of image size of CBCT was 20% in the case of Fiducial marker. The impact of changes in breathing pattern was minimum 13% - maximum 43% for Arcyl, min. 18% - max. 66% for Fiducial marker. This difference makes serious uncertainty. So, Must be stabilized breathing of patient before acquiring CBCT. also must be monitored breathing of patient in the middle of acquire. If you observe considerable change of breathing when acquiring CBCT. After Image Guided, must be need to check treatment site using fluoroscopy. If a change is too big, re-acquiring CBCT.

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Assessing Future Climate Change Impact on Hydrologic Components of Gyeongancheon Watershed (기후변화가 경안천 유역의 수문요소에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Ahn, So-Ra;Park, Min-Ji;Park, Geun-Ae;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.33-50
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    • 2009
  • The impact on hydrologic components considering future potential climate, land use change and vegetation cover information was assessed using SLURP (Semi-distributed Land-Use Runoff Process) continuous hydrologic model. The model was calibrated (1999 - 2000) and validated (2001 - 2002) for the upstream watershed ($260.4\;km^2$) of Gyeongancheon water level gauging station with the coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranging from 0.77 to 0.60 and 0.79 to 0.60, respectively. Two GCMs (MIROC3.2hires, ECHAM5-OM) future weather data of high (A2), middle (A1B) and low (B1) emission scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted and the data was corrected by 20C3M (20th Century Climate Coupled Model) and downscaled by Change Factor (CF) method using 30 years (1977 - 2006, baseline period) weather data. Three periods data of 2010 - 2039 (2020s), 2040 - 2069 (2050s), 2070 - 2099 (2080s) were prepared. To reduce the uncertainty of land surface conditions, future land use and vegetation canopy prediction were tried by CA-Markov technique and NOAA NDVI-Temperature relationship respectively. MIROC3.2 hires and ECHAM5-OM showed increase tendency in annual streamflow up to 21.4 % for 2080 A1B and 8.9 % for 2050 A1B scenario respectively. The portion of future predicted ET about precipitation increased up to 3 % in MIROC3.2 hires and 16 % in ECHAM5-OM respectively. The future soil moisture content slightly increased compared to 2002 soil moisture.

Fault reactivation potential during $CO_2$ injection in the Gippsland Basin, Australia (호주 Gippsland Basin에서 $CO_2$ 주입 중 단층 재활성화의 가능성)

  • Ruth, Peter J. van;Nelson, Emma J.;Hillis, Richard R.
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.50-59
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    • 2006
  • The risk of fault reactivation in the Gippsland Basin was calculated using the FAST (Fault Analysis Seal Technology) technique, which determines fault reactivation risk by estimating the increase in pore pressure required to cause reactivation within the present-day stress field. The stress regime in the Gippsland Basin is on the boundary between strike-slip and reverse faulting: maximum horizontal stress $({\sim}\;40.5\;Mpa/km)$ > vertical stress (21 Mpa/km) ${\sim}$ minimum horizontal stress (20 MPa/km). Pore pressure is hydrostatic above the Campanian Volcanics of the Golden Beach Subgroup. The NW-SE maximum horizontal stress orientation $(139^{\circ}N)$ determined herein is broadly consistent with previous estimates, and verifies a NW-SE maximum horizontal stress orientation in the Gippsland Basin. Fault reactivation risk in the Gippsland Basin was calculated using two fault strength scenarios; cohesionless faults $(C=0;{\mu}=0.65)$ and healed faults $(C=5.4;\;{\mu}=0.78)$. The orientations of faults with relatively high and relatively low reactivation potential are almost identical for healed and cohesionless fault strength scenarios. High-angle faults striking NE-SW are unlikely to reactivate in the current stress regime. High-angle faults oriented SSE-NNW and ENE-WSW have the highest fault reactivation risk. Additionally, low-angle faults (thrust faults) striking NE-SW have a relatively high risk of reactivation. The highest reactivation risk for optimally oriented faults corresponds to an estimated pore pressure increase (Delta-P) of 3.8 MPa $({\sim}548\;psi)$ for cohesionless faults and 15.6 MPa $({\sim}2262\;psi)$ for healed faults. The absolute values of pore pressure increase obtained from fault reactivation analysis presented in this paper are subject to large errors because of uncertainties in the geomechanical model (in situ stress and rock strength data). In particular, the maximum horizontal stress magnitude and fault strength data are poorly constrained. Therefore, fault reactivation analysis cannot be used to directly measure the maximum allowable pore pressure increase within a reservoir. We argue that fault reactivation analysis of this type can only be used for assessing the relative risk of fault reactivation and not to determine the maximum allowable pore pressure increase a fault can withstand prior to reactivation.

Standardization and Reliability and Validity of the Korean Edition of Profile of Mood States(K-POMS) (한국판 기분상태척도(K-POMS)의 표준화와 신뢰도와 타당도 평가)

  • Kim, Eui-Joong;Lee, Sang-Ick;Jeong, Do-Un;Shin, Min-Sup;Yoon, In-Young
    • Sleep Medicine and Psychophysiology
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.39-51
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    • 2003
  • Objectives: The Profile of Mood States (POMS) has been used broadly and frequently in various medical studies with various subjects. For the development and application of the Korean edition of POMS, called K-POMS, we translated POMS into Korean and then evaluated the reliability and validity of K-POMS. Methods: The subjects were 161 male students with a mean age of 18.1 years (15-30) and 244 female students with a mean age of 16.6 years (14-23). They were requested to perform K-POMS and SCL-90-R (Korean version) at the same time. Means, reliability coefficients, and test-retest correlations of K-POMS were calculated. Content validities, correlations with SCL-90-R, and discrimination validities in comparison with 76 depressive patients were obtained, and factor analyses were carried out. Results: Mean scores of Total Mood Disturbance (TMD) and some subscales (T, F, C, V factor) showed a significant difference between male and female students. The internal consistency coefficient ($\alpha$) of the total 65 items was 0.93, and ranged from 0.67 to 0.90 for subscales. Test-retest correlations of 43 subjects ranged from 0.27 to 0.63. Seven psychiatrists rated the properness of the content of each item as more than moderate degree (mean scale points=2.66, in the range of 0 to 4). Every subscale of KPOMS exhibited significant correlation with the matching subscale of SCL-90-R. Mean scores of K-POMS of the total 405 subjects were significantly different from those of the 76 depressive subjects after age correction. Six factors were extracted, accounting for 51.2% of total variance. Factor 6 consisted of 6 items which came from various subscales of POMS and represented "uncertainty and helplessness," which may be somewhat different to depression or sadness proper. Conclusion: The validity and reliability of K-POMS could be confirmed. The significant difference in K-POMS scores between depressive subjects and normal subjects suggests that K-POMS can be used clinically for the evaluation and screening of depression. The main structure of K-POMS is very similar to that of POMS, except the Confusion-Bewilderment factor which shows weak factor consistency in K-POMS. This may reflect some emotional characteristic of Koreans such as an undifferentiated aspect of cognitive efficiency. The sixth factor newly extracted from K-POMS also may be indicative of an unique emotional aspect of young Koreans.

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An Analysis on the Critical Startup Success Factors in Small-Sized Venture Businesses (중소·벤처기업의 창업 성공요인에 대한 상대적 중요도 분석)

  • Lee, Seol-Bin
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.53-63
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    • 2017
  • With increasing the importance of venture startup in the national economy, a trend shows that the government's policy support for venture startup is not only strengthened, but also entrepreneurial enthusiasm is increasing. In order for this trend to continue as an ongoing phenomenon, not a temporary phenomenon, venture startups should continue to grow with survival competitiveness. In this respect, there is a time when it is necessary to study the factors affecting the success of venture startups more than ever. There is a limit to seeing main factors, which affect the entry into the growth stage with survival competitiveness for the success of venture startups, as only 'entrepreneur capacity' and 'differentiation strategy' claimed by existing previous studies. As a more fundamental factor, entrepreneurial behavior is important in terms of opportunity discovery and opportunity utilization, but research into this falls short of expectations. This study is intended to look into success factors of venture startup. To achieve this, a survey was empirically carried out to CEOs in 100 small and medium venture startups through AHP analysis. The results are as follows. As stated above, entrepreneurship of success factors in venture startups is considered most critical, followed by innovation, economics, and technology. And 'entrepreneur's competency', 'positive entrepreneurial motivation', 'creative technology utilization', and 'continuous investment in technical development' are considered most critical for 'entrepreneurship', 'innovation', 'technology', and 'economics' as sub-factors, respectively. Consequently, entrepreneur's entrepreneurship that has been required in general startups is a critical factor to be also in common required in venture startups. This means that they can secure the competitiveness of venture startup along with continuous investment support in business startup with a positive mindset and their own technological competence as innovators to overcome the risk and uncertainty of business startup as entrepreneurship that marks the start of a new enterprise.

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The Evaluation on Reuse Period of Patient's Clothes and Sheet After Radioiodine Therapy (방사성 요오드 치료환자의 환의 및 시트에 대한 재사용주기 평가)

  • Kim, Yeong Seon;Seo, Myung Deok;Lee, Wan Kyu;Kim, Ki Joon;Song, Jae Beom
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.12-17
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    • 2012
  • Purpose : The patient's clothes and sheet after radioiodine therapy must be disposed of by related regulation. That must be disposed of as radioactive wastes, but that is reusing after radioactivity decay by keeping for the certain period of time. In general, The minimum storage period calculate by standard of take radioactive substance out of radiation controlled area based on measured surface contamination level. But the measurements of surface contamination level are able to differ by measurement method. In this paper, I wish to calculate the minimum storage period of patient's clothes and sheet after radioiodine therapy by measure nuclide concentration offered by the regulation on self-disposal of radioactive wastes. Materials and Methods : The whole area of patient's clothes and sheet measured 31 patients(male:9 patients, female:22 patients), who had radioiodine therapy(3.7 GBq:13 patients, 5.55 GBq:16 patients, 7.4 GBq:2 patients) from july 2011 to march 2012. The minimum storage period is calculated by the regulation on self-disposal of radioactive waste(100 Bq/g) and standard of take radioactive substance out of radiation controlled area(4 kBq/m2) Results : The minimum storage period of pillow sheet, upper uniform, lower uniform by standard of take radioactive substance out of radiation controlled area were each 4.6 days, 63days, 78 days. The minimum storage period of pillow sheet, upper uniform, lower uniform by the regulation on self-disposal of radioactive waste were each 18.1 days, 43 days, 62 days. Conclusion : We can verify that patient's clothes and sheet after radioiodine therapy exists a great deal of radioactive contamination. The minimum storage period calculation of patient's clothes and sheet is better suited to applying nuclide concentration offered by the regulation on self-disposal of radioactive waste. I recommend, To keep for at least 2 months of the patient's clothes and sheet contaminated radioactivity, for prevent contamination and unnecessary radiation exposure.

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