• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실도 평가

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A Study on the Allowable Bearing Capacity of Pile by Driving Formulas (각종 항타공식에 의한 말뚝의 허용지지력 연구)

  • Lee, Jean-Soo;Chang, Yong-Chai;Kim, Yong-Keol
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.106-111
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    • 2002
  • The estimation of pile bearing capacity is important since the design details are determined from the result. There are numerous ways of determining the pile design load, but only few of them are chosen in the actual design. According to the recent investigation in Korea, the formulas proposed by Meyerhof based on the SPT N values are most frequently chosen in the design stage. In the study, various static and dynamic formulas have been used in predicting the allowable bearing capacity of a pile. Further, the reliability of these formulas has been verified by comparing the perdicted values with the static and dynamic load test measurements. Also, in most cases, these methods of pile bearing capacity determination do not take the time effect consideration, the actual allowable load as determined from pile load test indicates severe deviation from the design value. The principle results of this study are summarized as follows : As a result of estimate the reliability in criterion of the Davisson method, t was showed that Terzaghi & Peck >Chin>Meyerhof > Modified Meyerhof method was the most reliable method for the prediction of bearing capacity. Comparisons of the various pile-driving formulas showed that Modified Engineering News was the most reliable method. However, a significant error happened between dynamic bearing capacity equation was judged that uncertainty of hammer efficiency, characteristics of variable, time effect etc... was not considered. As a result of considering time effect increased skin friction capacity higher than end bearing capacity. It was found out that it would be possible to increase the skin friction capacity 1.99 times higher than a driving. As a result of considering 7 day's time effect, it was obtained that Engineering news, Modified Engineering News, Hiley, Danish, Gates, CAPWAP(CAse Pile Wave Analysis Program) analysis for relation, repectively, $Q_{u(Restrike)} / Q_{u(EOID)} = 0.98t_{0.1}$ , $0.98t_{0.1}$, $1.17t_{0.1}$, $0.88t_{0.1}$, $0.89t_{0.1}$, $0.97t_{0.1}$.

$^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT for the Preoperative Diagnosis of Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma: The Value of Dual Time Point Imaging (갑상선미세유두암의 수술 전 진단에서 $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT: 이중시간 영상의 유용성)

  • Seo, Young-Duk;Kim, Seong-Min;Kim, Kun-Ho;Kim, Je-Ryong
    • Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.543-556
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: We studied the patterns of FDG uptake of primary papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMCa) lesions and benign thyroid nodules in dual time point $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT imaging. Materials and Methods: Consecutive 134 patients (154 lesions) with PTMCa and 49 patients (61 nodules) with benign thyroid nodules equal to or less than 1.0 cm who underwent dual time point $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT study before surgery were enrolled. We calculated the maximum standardized uptake value of PTMCa and benign nodules in both time points, and percent change of SUVmax (${\Delta}%SUVmax$) and lesion to background ratio of SUVmax (${\Delta}L:B$% ratio) between both time points. The mean time interval between scans was $23.4{\pm}4.4$ minutes (thyroid to thyroid interval: $10.7{\pm}4.4$ minutes). Results: The mean of SUVmax of PTMCa was increased from $4.9{\pm}4.3$ to $5.3{\pm}4.7$ (p<0.001) and ${\Delta}%SUVmax$ was $12.3{\pm}23.6%$. But, the mean of SUVmax of benign nodules was no definite change ($2.1{\pm}1.0$ to $2.1{\pm}1.3$, p=0.686) and ${\Delta}%SUVmax$ was $-0.3{\pm}20.5%$. Of the 154 PTMCa, 100 nodules (64.9%) showed an increase in SUVmax over time, while 19 (31.1%) of the 61 benign thyroid nodules showed an increase (p<0.001). The dual time point $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT found more PTMCa in visual assessment (62.3% vs. 76.6%, p=0.006), even in smaller than 0.5 cm (38.6% vs. 60.0%, p=0.011). Conclusion: Dual time time $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT imaging was more useful than single time point $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT imaging for distinction between PTMCa and benign nodule, especially when nodule showed equivocal or negative findings in single time point $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT imaging or was smaller than 0.5 cm.

Understanding the Legal Structure of German Human Gene Testing Act (GenDG) (독일 유전자검사법의 규율 구조 이해 - 의료 목적 유전자검사의 문제를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Na-Kyoung
    • The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.85-124
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    • 2016
  • The Human gene testing act (GenDG) in Germany starts from the characteristic features of gene testing, i.e. dualisting structure consisted of anlaysis on the one side and the interpretation on the other side. The linguistic distincion of 'testing', 'anlaysis' and 'judgment' in the act is a fine example. Another important basis of the regulation is the ideological purpose of the law, that is information autonomy. The normative texts as such and the founding principle are the basis of the classification of testing types. Especially in the case of gene testing for medical purpose is classified into testing for diagnostic purpose and predictive purpose. However, those two types are not always clearly differentiated because the predictive value of testing is common in both types. In the legal regulation of gene testing it is therefore important to manage the uncertainty and subjectivity which are inherent in the gene-analysis and the judgment. In GenDG the system ensuring the quality of analysis is set up and GEKO(Commity for gene tisting) based on the section 23 of GenDG concretes the criterium of validity through guidelines. It is also very important in the case of gene testing for medical purpose to set up the system for ensurement of procedural rationality of the interpretation. The interpretation of the results of analysis has a wide spectrum because of the consistent development of technology on the one side and different understandings of different subjects who performs gene testings. Therefore the process should include the communication process for patients in oder that he or she could understand the meaning of gene testing and make plans of life. In GenDG the process of genetic counselling and GEKO concretes the regulation very precisely. The regulation as such in GenDG seems to be very suggestive to Korean legal polic concerning the gene testing.

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Evaluation of Future Water Deficit for Anseong River Basin Under Climate Change (기후변화를 고려한 안성천 유역의 미래 물 부족량 평가)

  • Lee, Dae Wung;Jung, Jaewon;Hong, Seung Jin;Han, Daegun;Joo, Hong Jun;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.345-352
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    • 2017
  • The average global temperature on Earth has increased by about $0.85^{\circ}C$ since 1880 due to the global warming. The temperature increase affects hydrologic phenomenon and so the world has been suffered from natural disasters such as floods and droughts. Therefore, especially, in the aspect of water deficit, we may require the accurate prediction of water demand considering the uncertainty of climate in order to establish water resources planning and to ensure safe water supply for the future. To do this, the study evaluated future water balance and water deficit under the climate change for Anseong river basin in Korea. The future rainfall was simulated using RCP 8.5 climate change scenario and the runoff was estimated through the SLURP model which is a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model for the basin. Scenario and network for the water balance analysis in sub-basins of Anseong river basin were established through K-WEAP model. And the water demand for the future was estimated by the linear regression equation using amounts of water uses(domestic water use, industrial water use, and agricultural water use) calculated by historical data (1965 to 2011). As the result of water balance analysis, we confirmed that the domestic and industrial water uses will be increased in the future because of population growth, rapid urbanization, and climate change due to global warming. However, the agricultural water use will be gradually decreased. Totally, we had shown that the water deficit problem will be critical in the future in Anseong river basin. Therefore, as the case study, we suggested two alternatives of pumping station construction and restriction of water use for solving the water deficit problem in the basin.

Projecting future hydrological and ecological droughts with the climate and land use scenarios over the Korean peninsula (기후 및 토지이용 변화 시나리오 기반 한반도 미래 수문학적 및 생태학적 가뭄 전망)

  • Lee, Jaehyeong;Kim, Yeonjoo;Chae, Yeora
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.427-436
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    • 2020
  • It is uncertain how global climate change will influence future drought characteristics over the Korean peninsula. This study aims to project the future droughts using climate change and land use change scenarios over the Korean peninsula with the land surface modeling system, i.e., Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro). The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 are used as future climate scenarios and the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), specifically SSP2, is adopted for the land use scenario. The using Threshold Level Method (TLM), we identify future hydrological and ecological drought events with runoff and Net Primary Productivity (NPP), respectively, and assess drought characteristics of durations and intensities in different scenarios. Results show that the duration of drought is longer over RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future (2031-2050) and RCP8.5-SSP2 (2080-2099) for the far future for hydrological drought. On the other hand, RCP2.6-SSP2 for the far future and RCP8.5-SSP2 for the near future show longer duration for ecological drought. In addition, the drought intensities in both hydrological and ecological drought show different characteristics with the drought duration. The intensity of the hydrological droughts was greatly affected by threshold level methods and RCP2.6-SSP2 for far future shows the severest intensity. However, for ecological drought, the difference of the intensity among the threshold level is not significant and RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future and RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future show the severest intensity. This study suggests a possible future drought characteristics is in the Korea peninsula using combined climate and land use changes, which will help the community to understand and manage the future drought risks.

A Study for Selecting Protected Wildlife Species and Potential Habitats in Seoul Metropolitan City (서울시 보호야생동.식물 종 및 잠재 서식지 선정 연구)

  • Han, Bong-Ho;Lee, Kyong-Jae;Ki, Kyong-Seok;Choi, Byeong-Eon
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.601-613
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to provide an protected wildlife species and potential habitats in Seoul through the overall present status of the species which live in Seoul. This study was performed in Seoul, the entire area of which is 605.52 $km^2$. We analyzed a total of 57 studies, including academic papers and research reports, for the natural ecology in Seoul. As for the results from the study, it was found that a total 1,907 species from 5 taxa were inhabiting and growing within the area. Among the total, plants of 1,656 species accounted for 86.7%, 197 species of wild birds made up 10.3%, 29 species of amphibians and reptiles consisted of 1.5%, and 27 species of mammalia totaled 1.4%. A total of 440 species except foreign species and species legally preserved by the Ministry of Environment, common species and uncertain species were selected as primary candidates. By taxon, it shows 212 species of plants, 180 species of wild birds, 24 species of mammalia, and 24 species of amphibians and reptiles. For extensive research subjects and research data limited in certain insect family, analysis by literature for discovered insects was excluded. The selection criteria for the second candidate species was based on extinction crisis, rarity, historicity and locality, academic value, habitat specificity, etc. The second candidate species from the primary species were selected through taxon experts' evaluations. As for the results of the selection of the second candidates, a total 77 species were selected through the experts' evaluations. Each species by taxon was 25 species for plants, 21 species for wild birds, 5 for mammalia, 10 for amphibians and reptiles and 16 species for insects. A site investigation for the second candidates was conducted to select the final candidate species. For the target areas, the habitats of the second candidates given by the literature and 46 potential areas in Seoul, which show good natural resistance, were finally selected. From the result of the site investigation, it was found that 14 species of plants, 19 species of wild birds, 2 species of mammalia, 4 species of amphibians and reptiles, and 16 species of insects were actually inhabiting Seoul; thus, the final 55 protected species were selected.

Evaluation of improvement effect on the spatial-temporal correction of several reference evapotranspiration methods (기준증발산량 산정방법들의 시공간적 보정에 대한 개선효과 평가)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.9
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    • pp.701-715
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    • 2020
  • This study compared several reference evapotranspiration estimated using eight methods such as FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO PM), Hamon, Hansen, Hargreaves-Samani, Jensen-Haise, Makkink, Priestley-Taylor, and Thornthwaite. In addition, by analyzing the monthly deviations of the results by the FAO PM and the remaining seven methods, monthly optimized correction coefficients were derived and the improvement effect was evaluated. These methods were applied to 73 automated synoptic observation system (ASOS) stations of the Korea Meteorological Administration, where the climatological data are available at least 20 years. As a result of evaluating the reference evapotranspiration by applying the default coefficients of each method, a large fluctuation happened depending on the method, and the Hansen method was relatively similar to FAO PM. However, the Hamon and Jensen-Haise methods showed more large values than other methods in summer, and the deviation from FAO PM method was also large significantly. When comparing based on the region, the comparison with FAO PM method provided that the reference evapotranspiration estimated by other methods was overestimated in most regions except for eastern coastal areas. Based on the deviation from the FAO PM method, the monthly correction coefficients were derived for each station. The monthly deviation average that ranged from -46 mm to +88 mm before correction was improved to -11 mm to +1 mm after correction, and the annual average deviation was also significantly reduced by correction from -393 mm to +354 mm (before correction) to -33 mm to +9 mm (after correction). In particular, Hamon, Hargreaves-Samani, and Thornthwaite methods using only temperature data also produced results that were not significantly different from FAO PM after correction. It can be also useful for forecasting long-term reference evapotranspiration using temperature data in climate change scenarios or predicting evapotranspiration using monthly or seasonal temperature forecasted values.

Assessing hydrologic impact of climate change in Jeju Island using multiple GCMs and watershed modeling (다중 GCM과 유역모델링을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 제주도의 수문학적 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Chul Gyum;Cho, Jaepil;Kim, Nam Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2018
  • The climate change impacts on hydrological components and water balance in Jeju Island were evaluated using multiple climate models and watershed model, SWAT-K. To take into account the uncertainty of the future forecast data according to climate models, climate data of 9 GCMs were utilized as weather data of SWAT-K for future period (2010-2099). Using the modeling results of the past (1992-2013) and the future period, the hydrological changes of each year were analyzed and the precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and recharge were increasing. Compared with the past, the change in the runoff was the largest (up to 50% increase) and the evapotranspiration was relatively small (up to 11% increase). Monthly results show that the amount of evapotranspiration and the amount of recharge are greatly increased as the amount of precipitation increases in August and September, while the amount of evapotranspiration decreases in the same period. January and December showed the opposite tendency. As a result of analyzing future water balance changes, the ratio of runoff, evapotranspiration, and recharge to rainfall did not change much, but compared to the past, the runoff rate increased up to 4.3% in the RCP 8.5 scenario, while the evapotranspiration rate decreased by up to 3.5%. Based on the results of other researchers and this study, it is expected that rainfall and runoff will increase gradually in the future under the assumption of present climate change scenarios. Especially summer precipitation and runoff are expected to increase. As a result, the amount of groundwater recharge in Jeju Island will increase.

Nuclear Weapons and Extended Deterrence in the U.S.-ROK Alliance (핵무기와 한·미 핵 확장억제 능력)

  • Huntley, Wade L.
    • Strategy21
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    • s.34
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    • pp.236-261
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    • 2014
  • The future role of nuclear extended deterrence in the security alliance between the United States and the Republic of Korea is currently a central concern. The gradually lessening role of reliance on nuclear weapons in US security policies broadly, combined with increasing North Korean nuclear capabilities and belligerence, raise fresh questions about the sufficiency of the "nuclear umbrella" as a pillar of the US-ROK defense posture. This article addresses the current and future role of nuclear extended deterrence in Korea in this dynamic context. The article reviews the longstanding trend toward reducing the overall size of the US nuclear arsenal, and assesses developments in US-ROK outlooks toward extended deterrence in response to the Obama administration's nuclear policies and North Korea's recent smaller-scale aggressions. The analysis finds that the challenges of deterrence credibility and allied reassurance are difficult and long-term. The analysis explains how these challenges emerge less from a shrinking US numerical arsenal size than from the sufficiency of specific nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities to meet emerging smaller-scale threats. The analysis also highlights the importance of broader strategic and political interaction in sustaining allied confidence in any joint security posture. The evaluation concludes that a strong US-ROK alliance relationship can be maintained while the size of the US nuclear arsenal continues to decline, in part because nuclear weapons in any deployment configuration are relatively ineffective means for deterring smaller-scale aggression. Nevertheless, continuing adjustment of the US-ROK extended deterrence posture to the evolving, complex and uncertain Korean peninsula security environment will remain an ongoing challenge. Finally, the article encourages further examination of the potential specific role ROK maritime forces might serve in enhancing deterrence of smaller-scale threats while minimizing risks of conflict escalation.

Effect of Organizational Support Perception on Intrinsic Job Motivation : Verification of the Causal Effects of Work-Family Conflict and Work-Family Balance (조직지원인식이 내재적 직무동기에 미치는 영향 : 일-가정 갈등 및 일-가정 균형의 인과관계 효과 검증)

  • Yoo, Joon-soo;Kang, Chang-wan
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.181-198
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to analyze the influence of organizational support perception of workers in medical institutions on intrinsic job motivation, and to check whether there is significance in the mediating effect of work-family conflict and work-family balance factors in this process. The results of empirical analysis through the questionnaire are as follows. First, it was confirmed that organizational support recognition had a significant positive effect on work-family balance as well as intrinsic job motivation, and work-family balance had a significant positive effect on intrinsic job motivation. Second, it was confirmed that organizational support recognition had a significant negative effect on work-family conflict, but work-family conflict had no significant influence on intrinsic job motivation. Third, in order to reduce job stress for medical institution workers, it is necessary to reduce job intensity, assign appropriate workload for ability. And in order to improve manpower operation and job efficiency, Job training and staffing in the right place are needed. Fourth, in order to improve positive organizational support perception and intrinsic job motivation, It is necessary to induce long-term service by providing support and institutional devices to increase attachment to the current job and recognize organizational problems as their own problems with various incentive systems. The limitations of this study and future research directions are as follows. First, it is believed that an expanded analysis of medical institution workers nationwide by region, gender, medical institution, academic, and income will not only provide more valuable results, but also evaluate the quality of medical services. Second, it is necessary to reflect the impact of the work-life balance support system on each employee depending on the environmental uncertainty or degree of competition in the hospital to which medical institution workers belong. Third, organizational support perception will be recognized differently depending on organizational culture and organizational type, and organizational size and work characteristics, working years, and work types, so it is necessary to reflect this. Fourth, it is necessary to analyze various new personnel management techniques such as hospital's organizational structure, job design, organizational support method, motivational approach, and personnel evaluation method in line with the recent change in the government's medical institution policy and the global business environment. It is also considered important to analyze by reflecting recent and near future medical trends.