• Title/Summary/Keyword: 변동성 분석

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Family, Self or State as a Desired Source of Support for the Elderly (노후부양의 바람직한 자원으로서의 가족, 자신 및 국가에 관한 한국 노인들의 태도)

  • 김정석;이가옥
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.197-220
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    • 1999
  • Family, Self or State as a Desired Source of Support for the Elderly As Korean society has undergone rapid socioeconomic transformation and reached the final stage of its demographic transition, the central emphasis of population policies in Korea has shifted from fertility and population control to aging issues. Recently, it has been advocated that the Korean government should provide more intensive public services to supplement self-care and family caregiving, heightening the need to know more about the norms and expectations of old-age support and how they will change. Using the Survey of the Living Status of the Korean Elderly in 1994, this study investigates the extent to which the Korean elderly themselves view family, self, or the state as desired sources of support. The multinomial log it model analysis reveals that the elderly without a son are less likely to emphasize the traditional view of family, while economically and physically better off elderly are more likely to favor the view of self-support. However, the idea that the emphasis on the 'state responsibility' may be found among those elderly who are in need of financial help and in poor health is not supported. The implications and suggestions for further research are discussed.

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Overseas Construction Order Forecasting Using Time Series Model (시계열 모형을 이용한 해외건설 수주 전망)

  • Kim, Woon Joong
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2018
  • Since 2010, Korea's overseas construction orders have seen dramatic fluctuations. I propose causes and remedies for the industry as a whole. Orders have recorded an annual average of $63.8 billion dollars from 2011 to 2014, reaching its highest at $71.6 billion dollars(2010) which marked the peak of Korea's overseas construction. However, due to a decline in international oil prices, starting in the last half of 2014, Korea's overseas construction orders have followed suit recording $46.1 billion dollar in 2014, $28.2 billion dollars in 2016, and $29.0 billion dollars in 2017. Facing uncertainty in Korea's overseas construction market, caused by continued slow growth of the global economy, Korean EPC contractors are at a critical point in regards to their award-winning capabilities. Together with declining oil prices, the challenges have never been bigger. To mitigate the challenges, I would suggest policy direction as a way to grow and develop the overseas construction industry. Proper counterplans are needed to foster Korea's overseas construction industry. Forecasting total order amount for overseas construction projects is essencial. Analyzing contract award & tender structure and its changing trends in both overseas and world construction markets should also be included. Korea has great potential and global competitiveness. These measures will serve to enhance Korea's overall export strategy in uncertain overseas markets and global economy.

Estimates of Surface Explosion Energy Based on the Transmission Loss Correction for Infrasound Observations in Regional Distances (인프라사운드 대기 전파 투과손실 보정을 통한 원거리 지표폭발 에너지 추정)

  • Che, Il-Young;Kim, Inho
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.478-489
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    • 2020
  • This study presents an analysis of infrasonic signals from two accidental explosions in Gwangyang city, Jeonnam Province, Korea, on December 24, 2019, recorded at 12 infrasound stations located 151-435 km away. Infrasound propagation refracted at an altitude of ~40 km owing to higher stratospheric wind in the NNW direction, resulting in favorable detection at stations in that direction. However, tropospheric phases were observed at stations located in the NE and E directions from the explosion site because of the strong west wind jet formed at ~10 km. The transmission losses on the propagation path were calculated using the effective sound velocity structure and parabolic equation modeling. Based on the losses, the observed signal amplitudes were corrected, and overpressures were estimated at the reference distance. From the overpressures, the source energy was evaluated through the overpressure-explosive charge relationship. The two explosions were found to have energies equivalent to 14 and 65 kg TNT, respectively. At the first explosion, a flying fragment forced by an explosive shock wave was observed in the air. The energy causing the flying fragment was estimated to be equivalent to 49 kg or less of TNT, obtained from the relationship between the fragment motion and overpressure. Our infrasound propagation modeling is available to constrain the source energy for remote explosions. To enhance the confidence in energy estimations, further studies are required to reflect the uncertainty of the atmospheric structure models on the estimations and to verify the relationships by various ground truth explosions.

A Study on the Equivalent Static Wind Load Estimation of Large Span Roofs (대스팬 지붕구조물의 등가정적 풍하중 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Myung-Ho;Kim, Ji-Young;Kim, Dae-Young;Kim, Sang-Dae
    • Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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    • v.6 no.1 s.19
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2006
  • The GF(Gust Factor) method is usually used as a method to evaluate equivalent static wind loads for general structures. The GF method is performed on the assumption that the shape of the equivalent static wind load profile is typically similar to that of mean wind loads. The shape of fluctuating wind loads could be quite different with that of the mean wind loads in case of large-span structures. So, the effect of higher modes as well as first mode must be considered to evaluate the wind loads. In this study, the ACS (Advanced Conditional Sampling) method is suggested to evaluate of equivalent static wind loads after investigating about GF and LRC method. The An method ran derive effective static wind loads by combining wind pressures and inertia forces of a structure chosen at a maximum load effect. The maximum load effect is assessed with the time history analysis using pressure data measured in wind tunnel tests. Equivalent static wind loads evaluated using ACS, GF, and LRC methods are compared to verify the effectiveness of ACS method.

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The High-speed train model for reducing the micro-pressure wave in railway tunnel (고속철도 터널에서의 미기압파 저감을 위한 모형실험)

  • Jang, Yong-Jun;Park, Won-Hee;Kim, Seung-Tae
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.1330-1336
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of the study was to verify deduction of each coefficient necessary to analysis on micro-pressure waves and reliability of the analysis result. The tunnel running train model testing device used in the test was manufactured by scale of 1:60 and the study used a train model with ten cars long according to specifications of KTX model. The study applied tunnels with cross sections of $107.9m^3\;and\;95.1m^3$ and applied tunnel extensions with 1km, 0.75km and 0.5km. Also, the study tested train speed by changing it into 275, 300, 325 and 350km/h. The test device was a hydraulic launch system composed of a train model, a hydraulic launcher, a tunnel model and a brake. The study measured speed of a model trainby a speed sensor installed in the point of each 1.2m from the front of tunnel entrance and a pithead of tunnel exit and measured pressure change of internal tunnel continuously by installing pressure sensors in the entrance part of tunnel, in the middle part of tunnel and in the exit part of tunnel. As the result of the measurement, it was known that pressure slope of pressure wave happened in the entrance part of tunnel was increased by a nonlinear effect while spreading the tunnel or its pressure slope was reduced by diffusion. Also, the study compared and analyzed micro-pressure waves happened in the exit part of the tunnel by installing each kind of hoods in the entrance part of the tunnel to prevent reduction of micro-pressure waves.

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Age Constraints on Human Footmarks in Hamori Formation, Jeiu Island, Korea (제주도 하모리층에 발달하는 사람 발자국의 형성시기)

  • Cho Deung-Lyong;Park Ki-Hwa;Jin Jae-Hwa;Hong Wan
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • v.14 no.3 s.41
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    • pp.149-156
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    • 2005
  • Ar-Ar, carbon AMS and OSL dating was carried out to clarify the age of the human footmarks on the Hamori Formation, Jeju Island, Korea. $^{40}Ar/^{39}Ar$ ages of trachybasalt from the Songaksan Tuff, which is underlain by the Hamori Formation, range between $10.6{\pm}19.9\;Ka$ and $11.7{\pm}26.3\;Ka$. Radiocarbon AMS ages of humin fractions extracted from sediment samples yielded the maximum limit age of the Hamori Formation as $15,161{\pm}70\;yr$ B.P. The OSL dating of the top and bottom layers of the Hamori Formation gave $6.8{\pm}0.3\;ka$ and $7.6{\pm}0.5\;ka$, respectively, suggesting that timing of the human footmarks formation can be constrained as between ca 6,800 yr B.P. and 7,600 yr B.P.

Accumulation of inorganic arsenic, and growth rate by changing of phosphate concentration in Hizikia fusiforme (인산염 농도 변화에 따른 톳(Hizikia fusiforme)의 무기비소(As (V)) 축적 및 생장률 변동)

  • Hwang, Un-Ki;Choi, Hoon;Choi, Min-Kyu;Kim, Min-Seob;Choi, Jong-Woo;Heo, Seung;Lee, Ju-Wook
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.189-195
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    • 2019
  • In this study, we performed an analysis of the accumulation of inorganic arsenic and growth rate with changes in phosphate concentration in Hizikia fusiforme. When exposed to inorganic arsenic for fourteen days, we found that the collection of inorganic arsenic hardly increased at high phosphate concentrations (2 mg L-1). However, when the phosphate concentration was low (0.02 mg L-1), accumulation of inorganic arsenic increased. Additionally, H. fusiforme decreased in a growth rate of 14.5% in low phosphate concentration (0.02 mg L-1) and fell in a growth rate of 30% when exposed to inorganic arsenic (10 ㎍ L-1). H. fusiforme cannot distinguish between phosphate and inorganic arsenic. Thus, when phosphate concentration was lower, the inorganic arsenic accumulation increased, and accumulated inorganic arsenic inhibited photosynthesis and cell division, reducing the growth rate. H. fusiforme is known to have higher inorganic arsenic accumulation than other seaweeds. Therefore, various studies are needed to secure the food safety of H. fusiforme which is an essential aquaculture species in Korea.

Seasonal Variation in Abundance and Species Composition of Surf Zone Fish Assemblage at Taecheon Sang Beach, Korea (大川海濱 碎波帶 魚類群集의 季節變化)

  • 신민철;이태원
    • 한국해양학회지
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.135-144
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    • 1990
  • Fish assemblage occupying the surf zone habitat of Taecheon sand beach in Cheonsu Bay was analyzed using monthly samples collected by a beach seine from September 1984 through August 1985. During each sampling period five hauls were completed, one at each 2-hour interval during the spring tide. Of 35 species identified, Favonigobius gymnauchen, Sillago japonica, Konosirus punctatus, Sardinella zunasi and chaenogobius mororana accounted for 79% of the individuals collected, and F. gymnauchen, s. japonica, K. punctatus, S. zunasi and Kareius bicoloratus constituted 67% of the biomass obtained. Overall abundance in terms of numbers and in biomass were 0.13 individuals/m$^2$ and 0.33g/m$^2$, respectively. A larger number of individuals and greater biomass was observed during the warmer months showing significant correlation with water temperature. High abundance of June was related to the occurrence of adult F. gymnauchen. A large number of individuals and great biomass was collected in August and September, a period of high abundance in juveniles of the seasonal species such as S. japonica, K. punctatus and S. zunasi. Temperature and habitat occupation according to life history of the dominant species might be the primary factors of the marked seasonality of the surf zone fish populations in the study area.

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Numerical studies on approximate option prices (근사적 옵션 가격의 수치적 비교)

  • Yoon, Jeongyoen;Seung, Jisu;Song, Seongjoo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.243-257
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we compare several methods to approximate option prices: Edgeworth expansion, A-type and C-type Gram-Charlier expansions, a method using normal inverse gaussian (NIG) distribution, and an asymptotic method using nonlinear regression. We used two different types of approximation. The first (called the RNM method) approximates the risk neutral probability density function of the log return of the underlying asset and computes the option price. The second (called the OPTIM method) finds the approximate option pricing formula and then estimates parameters to compute the option price. For simulation experiments, we generated underlying asset data from the Heston model and NIG model, a well-known stochastic volatility model and a well-known Levy model, respectively. We also applied the above approximating methods to the KOSPI200 call option price as a real data application. We then found that the OPTIM method shows better performance on average than the RNM method. Among the OPTIM, A-type Gram-Charlier expansion and the asymptotic method that uses nonlinear regression showed relatively better performance; in addition, among RNM, the method of using NIG distribution was relatively better than others.

Type of Political Influences of UCC (UCC의 정치적 영향 유형)

  • Jang, Seong-Ho
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.294-300
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    • 2010
  • With the development of media technology, UCC actively working through the medium of the Net, the Internet space, which can influence politics instead of TV is drawing attention as the new leading media. As the one-sided media influence of TV is dwindling in the times of the Internet, the hegemony of the media is rapidly changing into UCC marked by two-way interaction. Especially, UCC has the characteristic that it has changed the people performing a role as the receptor of the media into the agent of enormous political influence as well as the freshness specific to its contents. This study was intended to investigate the types of diverse political influences of UCC in political practice as well as daily politics with a focus on the fact that it can newly project the world led by the media and their changes and exercise strong power in changing the society. Therefore, it attempted to investigate the political influence and ripple effect that UCC can exert by attempting to analyze what political influence UCC can exercise at diverse political situations including election. As a result, UCC led to four situations such as incentive-exploding type, issue-leading type, dispersion-switching type, direction-obeying type. This can be said to lead to the positive effect at the political field, such as implementing direct democracy through digital technology.