• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2009.10a
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• pp.229-230
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• 2009

1992년 '제1차 천국무역항 항만기본계획'이 수립된 이후 2001년 제2차 계획이 수립되었고 2010년 3차 계획 수립을 앞두고 있다. 또한 10년 단위의 기본계획과 함께 항만 환경 변화에 능동적으로 대응하기 위한 보완적인 계획으로서 5년 단위의 수정계획이 1999년 및 2006년에 수립되었다. 이러한 계획들은 우리나라 무역항 개발의 근거가 되기 때문에 국내의 환경 변화를 직시하고 미래를 예견하여 현실적인 내용을 담아야 한다. 그러나 그 동안 수립되었던 계획들을 물동량 예측과 항만개발 방향 설정에 있어서 현실과 큰 차이를 보여왔다. 따라서 본 논문은 제 1차 및 2차 전국무역항 항만기본계획 및 수정계획들을 검토하여 항만정책의 실효성을 평가하는 것을 주목적으로 한다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.84-86
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• 2018

본 연구는 해양수산부가 지원하는 해외항만개발협력사업의 일환으로, 중미국가인 엘살바도르 주요 2개항의 항만개발 타당성조사 및 기본계획 수립을 목적으로 하되 장래 해외항만개발사업에서 참고할 수 있도록 정리하였다. 주요 내용으로는 국가 일반현황 및 지역분석, 인프라 현황 분석, 시장조사 및 물동량 수요추정, 항만 개발규모 및 중장기 개발방향 제시, 경제성 및 재무성 분석을 통해 수원국에 필요한 국가 상위계획 자료를 제공하는 것이며, 연구결과가 계획에만 그치지 않도록 사업시행을 위한 재원조달 방안 및 항만 활성화 방안 등 실질적 사업현실화 방안을 제시하였다.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.45 no.5
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• pp.75-89
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• 2020

The purpose of this paper was to analyze the trend of container volume using the Seasonal Autoregressive Intergrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. To this end, this paper used monthly time-series data of the East Sea Rim from 2001 to 2019. As a result, the SARIMA(2,1,1)12 model was identified as the most suitable model, and the superiority of the SARIMA model was demonstrated by comparative analysis with the ARIMA model. In addition, to confirmed forecasting accuracy of SARIMA model, this paper compares the volume of predict container to the actual volume. According to the forecast for 24 months from 2020 to 2021, the volume of containaer increased from 60,100,000Ton in 2020 to 64,900,000Ton in 2021

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.76-76
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• 2019

도선사는 항만선박운항 안전과 효율적인 항만운영을 위해 유지되어야 하는 중요한 인적요소이다. 그러나 최근 개정된 도선법에 따른 예상되는 도선사 시험응시연령의 저하와 국가필수도선사제도 도입으로 인한 정년연장 현상 등의 직접적인 환경변화가 이루어지고 있다. 또한 계속되는 해운 및 항만환경의 변화인 선박의 대형화와 항만물동량 변화 등은 우리나라 도선사 수요에 직간접적이니 영향으로 작용하고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 이러한 도선환경 변화에 따른 우리나라 도선사 수요의 산정과 각 도선구별 적정 도선사의 분배방안을 제시 하고자 한다. 우선 문헌조사 및 선행연구의 분석을 통하여, 1996년 이후 우리나라 해양수산부에서 시행해오고 있는 수급계획 수립과 이에 따른 도선사 수 지정방식에서 도선운영협의제도로 변환한 과정과 문제점 등을 도출하고자 한다. 그리고 선행연구에서 도입해 수요예측 산정방식의 장단점과 문제점을 분석하여, 수요예측 개선방안을 도출하였다. 마지막으로 기존 수요예측 방식의 개선방안으로 시계열 자료를 이용한 시계열분석법을 도입하여, 향후 5년간의 적정 도선사 수요를 예측하였다.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.7
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• pp.427-450
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• 2001

This research suggests the estimation methodology of Logistics. This paper elucidates the main problems associated with estimation in the regression model. We review the methods for estimating the parameters in the model and introduce a modified procedure in which all models are fitted and combined to construct a combination of estimates. The resulting estimators are found to be as efficient as the maximum likelihood (ML) estimators in various cases. Our method requires more computations but has an advantage for large data sets. Also, it enables to detect particular features in the data structure. Examples of real data are used to illustrate the properties of the estimators. The backgrounds of estimation of logistic regression model is the increasing logistic environment importance today. In the first phase, we conduct an exploratory study to discuss 9 independent variables. In the second phase, we try to find the fittest logistic regression model. In the third phase, we calculate the logistic estimation using logistic regression model. The parameters of logistic regression model were estimated using ordinary least squares regression. The standard assumptions of OLS estimation were tested. The calculated value of the F-statistics for the logistic regression model is significant at the 5% level. The logistic regression model also explains a significant amount of variance in the dependent variable. The parameter estimates of the logistic regression model with t-statistics in parentheses are presented in Table. The object of this paper is to find the best logistic regression model to estimate the comparative accurate logistics.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.143-159
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• 2017

For forecasting air cargo demand from Incheon National Airport to all of airports in the United States (US), this study employed the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method and the time-series data collected from the first quarter of 2003 to the second quarter of 2016. By comparing the SARIMA method against the ARIMA method, it was found that the SARIMA method performs well, relatively with time series data highlighting seasonal periodic characteristics. While existing previous research was generally focused on the air passenger and the air cargo as a whole rather than specific air routes, this study emphasized on a specific air cargo demand to the US route. The meaningful findings would support the future research.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.11-30
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• 2017

In addition to recession, world shipping companies are undergoing restructuring due to excess of "World Container Cargo volume" per "World Containership capacity" (in TEU terms). This excess is attributed to the absence of standard index of calculating the "World Containership capacity" (in TEU terms) for "World Container Cargo volume." The purpose of this study is to develop indices and terms: "World Containership capacity (in TEU terms) Standards Index; WCSI" and "World Containership capacity (in TEU terms) Expected Index; WCEI." The comparison between "WCSI" and "WCEI" made in this study is presented below. WCSI (Average voyage 9.3) > WCEI Excess shipping (in TEU terms) WCSI (Average voyage 9.3) = WCEI Optimum shipping (in TEU terms) WCSI (Average voyage 9.3) < WCEI Short shipping (in TEU terms) WCSI=HRCI $1000{\pm}150$ Value approx. The study shows that it is possible to predict "optimal supply of the world's containership capacity" (in TEU terms), "excess or shortage of shipping" (in TEU terms), "order time of container-ship capacity building" (in TEU terms), "order quantity of containership capacity" (in TEU terms), and "stable of World Shipping Companies" by "WCSI" and "WCEI." The development of "WCSI" and "WCEI" aim to help overcome the crisis of recession by establishing effective business strategies for world shipping companies and their supporting companies.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.297-303
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• 2011

Major ports in Northeastern Asia engage in fierce competition to attract transshipment traffic volume. Existing time series analyses for analyzing port competition relationships examine the types of competition and relations through the signs of coefficients in cointegration equations using the transshipment traffic volume results. However, there are cases for which analyzing competing relationships is not possible based on the results of the transshipment traffic volume data differences and limitations in the forecasting of traffic volume. Accordingly, we used the Lotka-Volterra (L-V) model,also known as the ecosystem competitive relation model, to analyze port competition relations for the long-term forecast of South Korean transshipment traffic volume.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.13 no.7
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• pp.281-289
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• 2008

In this study, a discrete-event simulation model is developed to estimate load factors and the corresponding revenues under different pricing and dispatching policies. The model has been employed to forecast the inbound and the outbound air cargo demands of the major Northeastern Chinese cities, and the simulation results were compared to the actual demands obtained from real-life airline operations. The statistical analysis confirms that the simulation model is able to provide accurate estimates for air cargo demands, and thus, the model may be employed to be a useful tool for air cargo demand management.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2003.05a
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• pp.115-120
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• 2003

This study aims at calculating berth length required of the given volume of containers. For this, unlike previous studies assuming 300,000 TEU per berth as the capacity of a berth, this study attempts to apply more realistic situation such as the distribution of vessel size, lifts per vessel, berth time by vessel size, and average berth occupancy ratio. the result are compared with that of Pusan New port planning.