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http://dx.doi.org/10.7232/JKIIE.2011.37.4.297

Forecasting Model of Container Transshipment Traffic Volume in Northeast Asia  

Lee, Byoung-Chul (Crop and Horticulture Industry Team, Foundation of Agri. Tech. Commercialization and Transfer)
Kim, Yun-Bae (Department of Systems Management Engineering, Syungkyunkwan University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers / v.37, no.4, 2011 , pp. 297-303 More about this Journal
Abstract
Major ports in Northeastern Asia engage in fierce competition to attract transshipment traffic volume. Existing time series analyses for analyzing port competition relationships examine the types of competition and relations through the signs of coefficients in cointegration equations using the transshipment traffic volume results. However, there are cases for which analyzing competing relationships is not possible based on the results of the transshipment traffic volume data differences and limitations in the forecasting of traffic volume. Accordingly, we used the Lotka-Volterra (L-V) model,also known as the ecosystem competitive relation model, to analyze port competition relations for the long-term forecast of South Korean transshipment traffic volume.
Keywords
Transshipment Traffic volume; Lotka-Volterra Model; Traffic Volume Forecast; Port Competition;
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