• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.32-44
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• 1987

This study was carried out to analyze and furecast the domestic demand for plywood in Korea by regression models with time-series data for 16 years(1970-85). The results obtained were summarized as follows. 1. To analyze domestic demand for plywood, GNP, PWI and CWI were used as independant variables. The domestic demand equation was computed as follows: $^{in}DDP$=0.65186+1.29412 $^{in}GNP$-0.28385 $^{in}PWI$-1.05011 $^{in}CWI$ Where DDP : Domestic demand for plywood(1000 S/F) GNP: Gross national product (Billion won) PWI : Real wholesale price index of plywood CWI: Real wholesale price index of construction materials. 2. Among independant variables reflecting on the production activity of plywood industry, GNP was the most decisive in forecasting the domestic demand for plywood. 3. The significance can be recognized highly because the decision coefficient of the forecasting model which is obtained by using time series data is 0.9. 4. According to the estimated regression coefficients for GNP, PWI and CWI, GNP shows positive relation while PWI and CWI show negative relation. 5. An annual average increase rate of demand for plywood was 9.4 percent during expect period. Therefore, it was decreased slightly than that of 10.2 percent during sample period.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.67-76
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• 2012

There are index adjustment method and item adjustment method in estimation methods for price fluctuation rate of public constructions. A relevant regulation has put item adjustment method as a principle, but in most construction, contract sum adjustment has been made by index adjustment method. Hence, this study, by figuring out width and causes of the gap between index adjustment method and item adjustment method through direct comparative analysis, solved inequality caused by difference between them and suggested a rational way against irrationality of each method. For building operations of public housing construction, a detailed fluctuation rate by index adjustment method and item adjustment method of construction cost elements of the same construction, that is, direct material cost, direct labor cost and historical construction cost was estimated to analyze difference between two adjustments and establish its cause. Across the analysis, it was found that fluctuation rate by item adjustment method was estimated lower than that by index adjustment method and difference between methods for estimating fluctuation rate of quotation unit price and application of index unrelated to construction type and construction nature are main causes of the difference. This study has a significance in that, for smooth contract sum adjustment between contracting parties, it practically proved the real difference between adjustment methods by conducting comparative analysis of the difference in direct correspondence way.

• Information and Communications Magazine
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• v.29 no.7
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• pp.89-96
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• 2012

정보통신공사의 공사비 산정은 그동안 원가계산 방식으로 이루어져 왔으나, 최근 들어 건설 및 전기분야에서와 같이 실적공사비를 활용할 수 있도록 제도 시행을 추진하고 있다. 그러나 실적공사비를 적용하기 위해서는 과거 공사비 실적자료를 현가화 할 수 있는 지수의 개발이 전제되어야 함에도, 그동안 정보통신공사는 한국건설기술연구원의 통신공사비지수(기타 특수건설의 최하위지수)나 한국은행의 생산지물가지수를 이용할 수밖에 없는 한계를 지니고 있었다. 이에 본 연구에서는 실적적산 데이터를 기반으로 정보통신공사의 특성을 고려한 정보통신공사비지수를 제시하고자 한다. 개발된 지수는 실적공사비 자료의 현가화 뿐 아니라, 물가변동에 따른 계약단가 조정(Escalation), 정보통신분야의 거시적인 동향을 파악할 수 있는 주요 지표로 정보통신공사의 사업비산정 및 관련 분야의 기초자료로 활용될 수 있다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.193-207
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• 2012

The of purpose of this study is to predict export and import container volumes using a Decision Tree analysis. Factors which can influence the volume of container cargo are selected as independent variables; producer price index, consumer price index, index of export volume, index of import volume, index of industrial production, and exchange rate(won/dollar). The period of analysis is from january 2002 to December 2011 and monthly data are used. In this study, CRT(Classification and Regression Trees) algorithm is used. The main findings are summarized as followings. First, when index of export volume is larger than 152.35, monthly export volume is predicted with 858,19TEU. However, when index of export volume is between 115.90 and 152.35, monthly export volume is predicted with 716,582TEU. Second, when index of import volume is larger than 134.60, monthly import volume is predicted with 869,227TEU. However, when index of export volume is between 116.20 and 134.60, monthly import volume is predicted with 738,724TEU.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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• v.9 no.9
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• pp.133-140
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• 2019

Following the recent US trade deficit, the trade war began between Korea and Japan in July. Korea's trade dependence is about 60% or more, indicating high export dependence and import dependence. The purpose of this study is to examine export amount, export volume, export price index, Treasury bond interest rate and analyze how index affects export amount. This study attempts to analyze the comovement and volatility with export amount. For this purpose, monthly data for each indicator were selected for a total of 234 months from January 2000 to June 2019. As a result of analysis, exports amount and exports volume showed very high comovement, exports amount and interest rates showed low comovement, but exports amount and exports prices showed very low comovement. In the future, Korea should continue to increase exports amount in view of its high dependence on trade, along with policies to expand the domestic market. To this end, strategy to increase exports volume should be presented. Korea should increase the logistics environment and competitiveness of each port and airport, improve domestic and overseas network construction and support services of logistics companies.

• The tire
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• s.102
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• pp.36-40
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• 1982

본고는 1981년 일본 EXXON CHEMICAL 에서 일본 타이어 산업의 장기 전망(1982~1990)을 조사ㆍ추정한 것이다. 특히 본조사에서는 타이어 산업에 직접 연관되는 각종 요인(자동차생산ㆍ보유대수, 인구, GNP, 소비자물가지수 등)들을 세밀히 조사분석하여 자동차용 및 자전차용 타이어 튜브의 수급실적과 장기수급전망을 예측ㆍ추정하였다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.55-74
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• 1991

토지문제(土地問題)의 심각성에 대한 사회적(社會的) 합의(合意)에도 불구하고 정부의 개입으로 시정되어야 할 구체적인 정책목표(政策目標)가 무엇인가에 대한 검토(檢討)는 부족한 설정이며, 이를 위해 지가상승(地價上昇)의 원인과 결과에 대한 실증분석(實證分析)을 시도한 예도 찾아보기 힘들다. 본고는 지가상승률(地價上昇率)과 일단의 거시경제변수(巨視經濟變數) 변화율(變化率) 사이에 Granger 개념의 인과관계(因果關係)가 존재하는가를 검증하고 그 현실적인 의미를 살펴보고 있다. 지가상승추세(地價上昇趨勢)를 변화시킬 수 있는 거시변수(巨視變數)는 통화량(通貨量), 민간건설생산(民間建設生産), 주가지수(株價指數)의 변화 등이며, 지가상승이 영향을 미치는 변수(變數)들은 주가지수(株價指數), 실질생산(實質生産) 및 민간건설생산(民間建設生産)의 변화(變化), 사채이자율(私債利子率)로 나타났다. 여기서 포착된 경험적 증거들은 인과관계(因果關係)의 작동경로를 설명하는 이론과 결합되어 발전되어야 할 것이나 우리의 분석결과로부터도 몇가지 정책적(政策的) 시사점(示唆點)을 끌어 낼 수 있다. 무엇보다도, 지가상승(地價上昇)을 거시경제현상(巨視經濟現像)으로 파악하는 것이 필요하며, 거시경제환경이 불안정한 경우 토지조세(土地租稅)와 같은 미시적(微視的) 정책수단(政策手段)이 지가안정 등의 정책목표(政策目標)를 달성하는 데는 뚜렷한 한계가 있다는 것이다. 지가상승(地價上昇)이 물가상승(物價上昇)을 가속화한다는 것도 중요한 점인데 통화긴축(通貨緊縮)과 같은 정책수단이 물가(物價)와 지가(地價)를 모두 안정시킬 수 있다는 점은 다행한 일이다. 또한, 건설생산액(建設生産額) 변화와 지가상승(地價上昇)간의 관계는 적극적인 개발투자(開發投資)가 장기적인 지가안정(地價安定)에도 도움을 준다는 쪽이므로 사회간접자본(社會間接資本)의 확충(擴充), 민간건설(民間建設)의 확대(擴大)가 지속적으로 이루어지도록 해야 할 것이다.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.14-19
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• 2011

This research was conducted with goals to reducing arson and finding its relationship with social phenomenons. Especially, unlike previous researches, focus has been on the economic indicators, and the effect of economic indicators on arson. As a result, we were able to find the relationship between economic indicators and arson. When growth rate and consumer index prices decrease, the economy stagnates and thus incidents of arson increases. In contrast, when growth rate increases and consumer index prices increase, the rate in which arson occurred decreased. Also, we have found that when personal debt rate increases, the numbers of arson incidents increased as well.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.117-128
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• 2017

The increased national utilization of Bitcoin results in multiple complications. Therefore, there are continuous debates on the subject, the main point being how to characterize Bitcoin's asset nature. The following study bases, focusing on the function value, justifies Bitcoin's asset characterization. Using regression analysis to construct relations between gold and indexes such as CPI, DXY, and S&P500 as well as the relation between Bitcoin and the previously mentioned indexes, the question of whether gold and Bitcoin reacted in a similar fashion to the same indicators was examined. The results conclude that Bitcoin has similarities with gold, showing that it is risk averse and an investable commodity in lieu to profitability when it comes to inflation and currency value. When considered with price volatility, the main force behind the function of investment asset, categorizing Bitcoin as a high-risk financial investment asset rather than as a currency within the system would be more effective for management.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.352-361
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• 2013

The purpose of this study is to analyse the impact of macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic forces on the management performance of the air transport firms and offer the useful information to the managers. To conduct the regression analysis, eight macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic variables were selected individually as an independent variable. Macroeconomic variables were the return of corporate bond, West Texas Intermediate, the unemployment rate, the money supply, the trade balance, the won to USD exchange rate, the consumer price index and the index of industrial production. And non-macroeconomic variables were Taiwan earthquake, the Asian economic crisis, the 911 terrorist attacks in the US, the Iraq war, Beijing Olympic, the outbreak of a swine flu epidemic, the 1st presidential election and the 2nd presidential election. And ROA was selected as a dependent variable. As the result of analysis, it was found that the changing rates of won to USD exchange rate and consumer price index affected the changing rate of ROA significantly. And also as the result of analysing the impact of two significant macroeconomic variables and eight non-macroeconomic variables on the changing rate of ROA, it was found that the Asian economic crisis and the outbreak of a swine flu epidemic had a negative impact on it. Therefore managers should take note of a change in macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic variables carefully to improve the management performance.