• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.571-573
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• 2006

This study suggests a reasonable method for visualizing risk management level by risk weight linked with 4D model. This study defines risk management procedures as preparation, identification, analysis, response and management to manage potential risks in the construction project. The modules for computerizing in this system consist of planning, construction, application of WBS (Work Breakdown Structure) and RBS (Risk Breakdown Structure), and risk analysis. The final results include a method for visualizing risk level by each element of the project by using 4D simulation technique. It can be used as a visualized risk management tool instead of current system using numerical data.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2010.04a
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• pp.77-80
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• 2010

최근 건설 프로젝트의 대형화 및 다양한 신공법들의 도입으로 불확실한 위험도 요인들이 점점 증가함으로써 일련의 시스템적 절차에 따른 리스크관리 (Risk Management)체계와 프로젝트 참여자들간의 효율적인 정보전달 방안이 요구되고 있다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 '리스크 시각화 시뮬레이션 구축 방법론'을 제시한다. 이는 최근 각종공사 정보 시각화부분에서 주목받고 있는 4D CAD 기술과 리스크 분석을 시스템적인 절차로 구성하여 연계한 방법이다. 시스템적 리스크 분석 절차는 리스크관리기법인 AHP 및 퍼지 분석기법을 동시에 적용하여 합리적인 리스크 정량화를 수행할 수 있도록 구성하였다. 그리고 이로부터 산출된 리스크 요인별 위험정도는 WBS 코드체계 기반으로 4D CAD의 공종과 연계되어 리스크 정도 수준에 따라 설정된 색상으로 시뮬레이션이 구현되도록 구성하였다. 이러한 방법론은 IDEF0 모델링 기법으로 제시함으로써 향후 시스템 구축의 기초 자료로 활용할 수 있도록 하였다.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.163-170
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• 2014

This study calculates the employee receives severance pay scale are paid from the company in the DC system. In addition, by utilizing the reserve growth model were studied in accordance with shortfall risk levels generated by stochastic asset allocation. For the analysis, from 2004 to 2013 using the KOSPI returns and total bond yields were simulated. Scenario 1 is when compared to the severance reserve is insufficient. Scenario 2 is the same as if toy reserve this severance pay. During one period, depending on the asset allocation of stocks and bonds was confirmed that the probability pension risk does not occur. And we suggest that members of DC pension risk endeavor with the government and companies to avoid.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.219-226
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• 1997

지구를 원궤도로 돌고 있는 위성 운동과 지진에 흔들리는 건물 진동을 선형 확률적 미분 방정식으로 나타내고 최적화 제어를 위하여 리스크 센서티브 제어기를 사용한다. 리스크 센서티브 파라미터에 따라서 코스트 함수의 평균과 분산이 변하게 된다. 이 파라미터가 무한히 커지면 리스크 센서티브 제어기는 기존의 LQG 제어기와 같아지므로 리스크 샌서티브 제어이론은 LQG 제어 이론을 포함한 종합적인 이론이다. 이 논문에서는 리스크 센서티브 이론을 소개하고, 리스크 센서티브 제어 방식의 성능 측정및 평가 방법을 도출하기 위하여 공분산을 이용하면 리스크 센서티브 제어기는 기존의 LQG 제어기 보다 우수한 성능을 나타낸다는 것을 보여준다. 시뮬레이션을 통하여 위성의 자세및 궤도 운동 제어와 건물 진동 제어에 활용된 리스크 센서티브 제어기의 향상된 성능과 안정성을 보여준다.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.2 no.2 s.6
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• pp.98-108
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• 2001

This research proposes a new risk analysis model in order to guarantee successful performance of construction projects. The risk analysis model, called Construction Risk Analysis System(CRAS), is introduced to help contractors Identify project risks through RBS and through the procedures in risk analysis model. The proposed CRAS model consists of three phases. First step, CRAS model can help contractors decide whether or not they bid for a project by analysing risks involved in the project. Second step, the influence diagraming, decision tree and Monte Carlo simulation are used as tools to analyze and evaluate project risks quantitatively. Third step, Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess risk for groups of activities with probabilistic branching and calendars. Consequently, it will help contractors identify risk elements in their projects and quantify the impact of risk on project time and cost.

• Proceedings of KOSOMES biannual meeting
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• 2017.11a
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• pp.130-130
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• 2017

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.3-16
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• 2017

Forecasting cash flow is very important but is difficult and complicated to analysis in high-rise development projects. And An expected value which was forecasted on the early stage is likely to fluctuate due to uncertainties around such complicated huge project to consider the probable uncertainty. There are not objectified method which are able to cope with uncertainty of project, and feasibility study based on selected financial analysis does not include liquidity of cash flow. Through such a stochastic method, developer can cope with cash flow fluctuation and set up a financial plan. Also this study is meaningful for laying the foundation for high-rise development project and feasibility study as well as the suitability and accuracy of feasibility study. Analysis showed that NPV and IRR include residential apartments shows surplus revenue as return of apartments offset deficit of hotel and office. Factors influencing the project feasibility for high-rise development project are sales account of $1^{st}$ year and annual vacancy rate of office.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.295-300
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• 2006

In this research, risk factors which can raise project cost are identified in the initial stage and picked out through the decision maker's baseline. And also this probable risks are implemented to the project cash flow to estimate the contingency and to build a risk management system in the level of project. The risks that affect the projects profits were classified in two categories in the risk checklist. Firstly, financial risks derived from the external economic conditions for example exchange rate, escalation, interest rates etc. are analyzed through the stochastic methods, Monte-Carlo Simulation. Secondly, the project individual risks which are come from the project characteristics, for example country risk, clime, owner etc., are evaluated using the utility curve of the decision maker. Finally these risk analysis methods are used to forecast the actual project cash flow and final profit.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• autumn
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• pp.485-490
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• 2003

Nowadays the rapid change in construction environment getting more globalized and complicated has caused lots of unexpected risks from inside and out of the country, so more sophisticated construction management strategies are being strongly needed. This paper suggests a risk management model with which we can estimate the appropriate contingency by quantifying the amount of probable risks immanent in large construction projects, which have a high degree of uncertainty in the anticipation of the total construction cost. To develop the model, the risk factors that make cost variations are elicited based on the real data of the contingencies assigned to the past projects. Furthermore, the influential relationship of risk factors is structured by applying the CRM(Cost Risk Model) which is the synthetic model of Monte Carlo Simulation, Influence Diagram and Decision Tree. The ultimate outcome of this research can by validated by tile case study with a large construction project performed.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.42 no.5
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• pp.681-688
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• 2022

According to a recent study, most construction companies in Korea do not manage risk effectively, and it is judged that the risk management system needs to be improved. In addition, most risk-related studies deal with risks from a macroscopic perspective, and there are few studies dealing with process risks at the project construction stage. Therefore, this study tried to suggest a risk response plan through analysis and classification of risk factors that may occur in retaining work among process risks. To this end, a workshop was held for risk experts to identify and analyze risks that may occur during the construction of retaining work for apartments. As a result of the study, it was expected that savings of KRW 4.97 billion would be possible in the 95 % confidence interval, and the maximum possible cost was reduced from KRW 15 billion to about KRW 10 billion. Based on the risk reduction ratio, it was found that risks that can be reduced without any special input cost, risks with large effects in response to risks, and risks with insignificant effects were found. Therefore, using the types and risk factors presented in this study as guides, it is expected that it will be helpful in successfully operating the project if an appropriate response strategy is prepared and systematically responded to the site conditions.