• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.23 no.3
• /
• pp.13-24
• /
• 2022

Construction projects are exposed to various types of risks, which tend to increase. The increasing risks call for contractors' more attentions to forecasting and dealing with these risks. One of the measures to deal with contractors' risks is to forecast or estimate risk cost and include it in the construction budget. Although various researches in relation to risk cost have been observed, little attention has been paid to general contractors' perceptions and current practices in estimating risk cost of construction budget. The objective of the study is to identify and discuss key characteristics and implications based on the survey and analysis of general contractors' perceptions and current practices in estimating risk cost of construction budget. The study shows that there is a gap between the perception and the practice of estimating risk cost, that is, high perception of the importance of risk cost and a relatively low level of practice. It suggests that historical cost data, guidelines and corporate-level standard procedures are required to improve the current practice in addition to sufficient time allocations for risk cost estimating. It discusses that there is a need for using sophisticated estimating techniques including bid data analytics despite a low level of the current adoption, and also proposes that research and development in the field of the sophisticated estimating techniques should be further implemented in order to increase their practicality.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• 2006.11a
• /
• pp.571-573
• /
• 2006

This study suggests a reasonable method for visualizing risk management level by risk weight linked with 4D model. This study defines risk management procedures as preparation, identification, analysis, response and management to manage potential risks in the construction project. The modules for computerizing in this system consist of planning, construction, application of WBS (Work Breakdown Structure) and RBS (Risk Breakdown Structure), and risk analysis. The final results include a method for visualizing risk level by each element of the project by using 4D simulation technique. It can be used as a visualized risk management tool instead of current system using numerical data.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
• /
• 2010.04a
• /
• pp.77-80
• /
• 2010

최근 건설 프로젝트의 대형화 및 다양한 신공법들의 도입으로 불확실한 위험도 요인들이 점점 증가함으로써 일련의 시스템적 절차에 따른 리스크관리 (Risk Management)체계와 프로젝트 참여자들간의 효율적인 정보전달 방안이 요구되고 있다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 '리스크 시각화 시뮬레이션 구축 방법론'을 제시한다. 이는 최근 각종공사 정보 시각화부분에서 주목받고 있는 4D CAD 기술과 리스크 분석을 시스템적인 절차로 구성하여 연계한 방법이다. 시스템적 리스크 분석 절차는 리스크관리기법인 AHP 및 퍼지 분석기법을 동시에 적용하여 합리적인 리스크 정량화를 수행할 수 있도록 구성하였다. 그리고 이로부터 산출된 리스크 요인별 위험정도는 WBS 코드체계 기반으로 4D CAD의 공종과 연계되어 리스크 정도 수준에 따라 설정된 색상으로 시뮬레이션이 구현되도록 구성하였다. 이러한 방법론은 IDEF0 모델링 기법으로 제시함으로써 향후 시스템 구축의 기초 자료로 활용할 수 있도록 하였다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• 2008.11a
• /
• pp.475-480
• /
• 2008

In BTL project, the operation cost covering upcoming 20 years is usually alloted more than construction cost although its plan is made in short time. Therefore, it is a key issue to forecast and to analyze operation risks in the process of making contract in order to successfully finish the BTL project and to ensure the profitability of business. However, only a few domestic professional management companies are capable to carry out funding and facility management. To manage the potential risks efficiently in BLT project, it's essential to prioritize the risk factors by means of considering economical risk level, non-economical risk level and occurrence frequency. Thus, this study suggests risk analysis model for improving efficiency of BTL project from operation company's perspective by means of survey. The suggested risk analysis model is expected to establish a risk management strategy which can improve the efficiency of management affairs in BTL project.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.34 no.1
• /
• pp.99-110
• /
• 2018

This study empirically examines simple methodology to quantify the risk resulted from the uncertainty of bunker price and foreign exchange rate, which cause main resources of the cost in shipping industry during the periods between $1^{st}$ of January 2010 and $31^{st}$ of January 2018. To shed light on the risk measurement in cash flows we tested GBM(Geometric Brownian Motion) frameworks such as the model with conditional heteroskedasticity and jump diffusion process. The main contribution based on empirical results are summarized as following three: first, the risk analysis, which is dependent on a single variable such as freight yield, is extended to analyze the effects of multiple factors such as bunker price and exchange rate return volatility. Second, at the individual firm level, the need for risk management in bunker price and exchange rate is presented as cash flow. Finally, based on the scale of the risk presented by the analysis results, the shipping companies are required that there is a need to consider what is appropriate as a means of risk management.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.3 no.4 s.12
• /
• pp.84-92
• /
• 2002

Recently, apartment-remodeling project is booming since various reconstruction controls are tightened. However, the project has difficulties because management systems used for apartment-remodeling projects are not available. Identifying and analyzing risk factors that are required for risk management, this paper suggests the risk level through paired comparison performed by AHP method and probability assessment for risk level analysis. It is expected that this research will be utilized to minimize the risk of apartment remodeling project and for basic materials to perform the project and helpful to change newly build-oriented construction into sustainable industries. Hereafter using the risk factor analysis data of this paper for this research project, risk management model is considered to be constructed.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.31 no.6
• /
• pp.751-759
• /
• 2018

Cho et al. (Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods, 23, 423-432, 2016) introduced a risk model with a continuous type investment and studied the stationary distribution of the surplus process. In this paper, we extend the earlier analysis by assuming that additional instant investment is made when the surplus process reaches a certain sufficient level. We obtain the explicit form of the stationary distribution of the surplus process. The case is shown as an example, when the amount of claim is exponentially distributed.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
• /
• v.25 no.2
• /
• pp.159-168
• /
• 2019

This study was designed to investigate the physiological response of humans to alcohol during underwater activity and to complete related risk analysis. After comparing human responses to alcohol during underwater activity, we analyzed physiological changes and risk level using a new risk analysis method developed in this study, 'Risk Assessment and Analysis (RAA)'. RAA is a modified method based on an internal control frame work. It has 3 steps, the first of which is to analyze risk correlation. The second step is to quantify risk and build a risk database. The last step is to analyze the diagramed risk map. Using RAA, the risk levels of alcohol use underwater were calculated and diagramed. The diagramed risk map was then used to analyze the difference between risk levels underwater before and after alcohol use. As a result, it was found that risk level underwater increased after alcohol use. This study shows alcohol use increases the ratio of high risk groups during underwater activity. It also indicates that risk levels can be quantified according to the likelihood and impairment scale, which can potentially help in identifying high risk groups for intensive management underwater.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.25 no.1
• /
• pp.81-87
• /
• 2012

A continuous time risk model is considered, where the premium rate is constant and the claims form a compound Poisson process. We assume that an injection is made, which is an immediate increase of the surplus up to level u > 0 (initial level), when the level of the surplus goes below ${\tau}$(0 < ${\tau}$ < u). We derive the formula of the ruin probability of the surplus by establishing an integro-differential equation and show that an explicit formula for the ruin probability can be obtained when the amounts of claims independently follow an exponential distribution.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• 2007.11a
• /
• pp.539-544
• /
• 2007

Owing to diversification of social desire and increase of demand as economic growth, construction industry recently is trending toward diversification, complication, gigantism. It means that is changing to difficult environment as existing construction company operation. Specially, some big construction companies are promoting get down to construction business risk management skill & development. Enterprise risk management system, recognized to risk portfolio, is suggested. instead of individually risk management. This study indicates ERM basic model, considering construction risk character, for apply to ERM to field of construction . And it is including analysis of recognition level and reality about ERM in construction company.