• Title/Summary/Keyword: 로그분포

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A Short Review for the Estimation Method of Intrinsic Rate of Natural Increase According to the Setting of Initial Age for the Study Cohort in the Lotka Life Table (로트카 생명표에서 연구 집단의 초기연령 설정에 따른 내적자연증가율 추정방법에 대한 고찰)

  • Dong-soon, Kim
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.61 no.4
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    • pp.549-554
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    • 2022
  • Life table-related studies in insect ecology have been an interesting topic for insect researchers. Two calculation methods are commonly applied to estimate the intrinsic rate of natural increase (rm) in the life table statistics. The first method is to estimate an approximate rm by dividing the natural logarithm of the net reproductive rate (R0) by mean generation time (T) (namely mean generation time-based method). Another approach is to apply the Lotka-Euler equation derived from the population growth equation of Lotka-Volterra to estimate accurate rm using the maximum likelihood method (Lotka-Euler equation-based method). In the latter case, there is a difference in the estimated rm value when the initial age class of the target cohort was set to "0" or "1", which confused the application. In this short review, a brief history of the calculation process of the life table was reviewed. It was again confirmed in the Lotka-Euler equation-based method that the form of $\sum\limits_{x=1}^{w}e^{-rx}l_xm_x=1$ should be applied to estimate rm when the first age class was set to zero, while the form of $\sum\limits_{x=0}^{w}e^{-r(x+1)}l_xm_x=1$ when set to one.

Comparison between Uncertainties of Cultivar Parameter Estimates Obtained Using Error Calculation Methods for Forage Rice Cultivars (오차 계산 방식에 따른 사료용 벼 품종의 품종모수 추정치 불확도 비교)

  • Young Sang Joh;Shinwoo Hyun;Kwang Soo Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.129-141
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    • 2023
  • Crop models have been used to predict yield under diverse environmental and cultivation conditions, which can be used to support decisions on the management of forage crop. Cultivar parameters are one of required inputs to crop models in order to represent genetic properties for a given forage cultivar. The objectives of this study were to compare calibration and ensemble approaches in order to minimize the uncertainty of crop yield estimates using the SIMPLE crop model. Cultivar parameters were calibrated using Log-likelihood (LL) and Generic Composite Similarity Measure (GCSM) as an objective function for Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm. In total, 20 sets of cultivar parameters were generated for each method. Two types of ensemble approach. First type of ensemble approach was the average of model outputs (Eem), using individual parameters. The second ensemble approach was model output (Epm) of cultivar parameter obtained by averaging given 20 sets of parameters. Comparison was done for each cultivar and for each error calculation methods. 'Jowoo' and 'Yeongwoo', which are forage rice cultivars used in Korea, were subject to the parameter calibration. Yield data were obtained from experiment fields at Suwon, Jeonju, Naju and I ksan. Data for 2013, 2014 and 2016 were used for parameter calibration. For validation, yield data reported from 2016 to 2018 at Suwon was used. Initial calibration indicated that genetic coefficients obtained by LL were distributed in a narrower range than coefficients obtained by GCSM. A two-sample t-test was performed to compare between different methods of ensemble approaches and no significant difference was found between them. Uncertainty of GCSM can be neutralized by adjusting the acceptance probability. The other ensemble method (Epm) indicates that the uncertainty can be reduced with less computation using ensemble approach.

Assessment for the Utility of Treatment Plan QA System according to Dosimetric Leaf Gap in Multileaf Collimator (다엽콜리메이터의 선량학적엽간격에 따른 치료계획 정도관리시스템의 효용성 평가)

  • Lee, Soon Sung;Choi, Sang Hyoun;Min, Chul Kee;Kim, Woo Chul;Ji, Young Hoon;Park, Seungwoo;Jung, Haijo;Kim, Mi-Sook;Yoo, Hyung Jun;Kim, Kum Bae
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.168-177
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    • 2015
  • For evaluating the treatment planning accurately, the quality assurance for treatment planning is recommended when patients were treated with IMRT which is complex and delicate. To realize this purpose, treatment plan quality assurance software can be used to verify the delivered dose accurately before and after of treatment. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of treatment plan quality assurance software for each IMRT plan according to MLC DLG (dosimetric leaf gap). Novalis Tx with a built-in HD120 MLC was used in this study to acquire the MLC dynalog file be imported in MobiusFx. To establish IMRT plan, Eclipse RTP system was used and target and organ structures (multi-target, mock prostate, mock head/neck, C-shape case) were contoured in I'mRT phantom. To verify the difference of dose distribution according to DLG, MLC dynalog files were imported to MobiusFx software and changed the DLG (0.5, 0.7, 1.0, 1.3, 1.6 mm) values in MobiusFx. For evaluation dose, dose distribution was evaluated by using 3D gamma index for the gamma criteria 3% and distance to agreement 3 mm, and the point dose was acquired by using the CC13 ionization chamber in isocenter of I'mRT phantom. In the result for point dose, the mock head/neck and multi-target had difference about 4% and 3% in DLG 0.5 and 0.7 mm respectively, and the other DLGs had difference less than 3%. The gamma index passing-rate of mock head/neck were below 81% for PTV and cord, and multi-target were below 30% for center and superior target in DLGs 0.5, 0.7 mm, however, inferior target of multi-target case and parotid of mock head/neck case had 100.0% passing rate in all DLGs. The point dose of mock prostate showed difference below 3.0% in all DLGs, however, the passing rate of PTV were below 95% in 0.5, 0.7 mm DLGs, and the other DLGs were above 98%. The rectum and bladder had 100.0% passing rate in all DLGs. As the difference of point dose in C-shape were 3~9% except for 1.3 mm DLG, the passing rate of PTV in 1.0 1.3 mm were 96.7, 93.0% respectively. However, passing rate of the other DLGs were below 86% and core was 100.0% passing rate in all DLGs. In this study, we verified that the accuracy of treatment planning QA system can be affected by DLG values. For precise quality assurance for treatment technique using the MLC motion like IMRT and VMAT, we should use appropriate DLG value in linear accelerator and RTP system.

Performance Evaluation of Radiochromic Films and Dosimetry CheckTM for Patient-specific QA in Helical Tomotherapy (나선형 토모테라피 방사선치료의 환자별 품질관리를 위한 라디오크로믹 필름 및 Dosimetry CheckTM의 성능평가)

  • Park, Su Yeon;Chae, Moon Ki;Lim, Jun Teak;Kwon, Dong Yeol;Kim, Hak Joon;Chung, Eun Ah;Kim, Jong Sik
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.32
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    • pp.93-109
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: The radiochromic film (Gafchromic EBT3, Ashland Advanced Materials, USA) and 3-dimensional analysis system dosimetry checkTM (DC, MathResolutions, USA) were evaluated for patient-specific quality assurance (QA) of helical tomotherapy. Materials and Methods: Depending on the tumors' positions, three types of targets, which are the abdominal tumor (130.6㎤), retroperitoneal tumor (849.0㎤), and the whole abdominal metastasis tumor (3131.0㎤) applied to the humanoid phantom (Anderson Rando Phantom, USA). We established a total of 12 comparative treatment plans by the four geometric conditions of the beam irradiation, which are the different field widths (FW) of 2.5-cm, 5.0-cm, and pitches of 0.287, 0.43. Ionization measurements (1D) with EBT3 by inserting the cheese phantom (2D) were compared to DC measurements of the 3D dose reconstruction on CT images from beam fluence log information. For the clinical feasibility evaluation of the DC, dose reconstruction has been performed using the same cheese phantom with the EBT3 method. Recalculated dose distributions revealed the dose error information during the actual irradiation on the same CT images quantitatively compared to the treatment plan. The Thread effect, which might appear in the Helical Tomotherapy, was analyzed by ripple amplitude (%). We also performed gamma index analysis (DD: 3mm/ DTA: 3%, pass threshold limit: 95%) for pattern check of the dose distribution. Results: Ripple amplitude measurement resulted in the highest average of 23.1% in the peritoneum tumor. In the radiochromic film analysis, the absolute dose was on average 0.9±0.4%, and gamma index analysis was on average 96.4±2.2% (Passing rate: >95%), which could be limited to the large target sizes such as the whole abdominal metastasis tumor. In the DC analysis with the humanoid phantom for FW of 5.0-cm, the three regions' average was 91.8±6.4% in the 2D and 3D plan. The three planes (axial, coronal, and sagittal) and dose profile could be analyzed with the entire peritoneum tumor and the whole abdominal metastasis target, with planned dose distributions. The dose errors based on the dose-volume histogram in the DC evaluations increased depending on FW and pitch. Conclusion: The DC method could implement a dose error analysis on the 3D patient image data by the measured beam fluence log information only without any dosimetry tools for patient-specific quality assurance. Also, there may be no limit to apply for the tumor location and size; therefore, the DC could be useful in patient-specific QAl during the treatment of Helical Tomotherapy of large and irregular tumors.

Impact of Pulmonary Vascular Compliance on the Duration of Pleural Effusion Duration after Extracardiac Fontan Procedure (수술 전 폐혈관 유순도가 심장 외 도판을 이용한 Fontan 수술 후 늑막 삼출 기간에 미치는 영향)

  • Yun Tae-Jin;Im Yu-Mi;Song Kwang-Jae;Jung Sung-Ho;Park Jeong-Jun;Seo Dong-Man;Lee Moo-Song
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.39 no.8 s.265
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    • pp.579-587
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    • 2006
  • Background: Preoperative risk analysis for Fontan candidates is still less than optimal in that patients with apparently low risks may have poor surgical outcome; prolonged pleural drainage, protein losing enteropathy, pulmonary thromboembolism and death. We hypothesized that low pulmonary vascular compliance (PVC) is a risk factor for prolonged pleural effusion drainage after the Fontan operation. Material and Method: A retrospective review of 96 consecutive patients who underwent the Extracardiac Fontan procedures (median age: 3.9 years) was performed. Fontan risk score (FRS) was calculated from 12 categorized preoperative anatomic and physiologic variables. PVC $(mm^2/m^2{\cdot}mmHg)$ was defined as pulmonary artery index $(mm^2/m^2)$ divided by total pulmonary resistance $(W.U{\cdot}/m^2)$ and pulmonary blood flow $(L/min/m^2)$ based on the electrical circuit analogue of the pulmonary circulation. Chest tube indwelling time was log-transformed (log indwelling time, LIT) to fit normal distribution, and the relationship between preoperative predictors and LIT was analyzed by multiple linear regression. Result: Preoperative PVC, chest tube indwelling time and LIT ranged from 6 to 94.8 $mm^2/mmHg/m^2$ (median: 24.8), 3 to 268 days (median: 20 days), and 1.1 to 5.6 (mean: 2.9, standard deviation: 0.8), respectively. FRS, PVC, cardiopulmonary bypass time (CPB) and central venous pressure at postoperative 12 hours were correlated with LIT by univariable analyses. By multiple linear regression, PVC (p=0.0018) and CPB (p=0.0024) independently predicted LIT, explaining 21.7% of the variation. The regression equation was LIT=2.74-0.0158 PVC+0.00658 CPB. Conclusion: Low pulmonary vascular compliance is an important risk factor for prolonged pleural effusion drainage after the extracardiac Fontan procedure.

Changes of Biomass, Net Primary Productivity and P/B Ratio during Abandoned Field Succession after Shifting Cultivation in Korea (화전 후 묵밭의 식생 천이에 따른 식물량, 순 일차 생산성 및 P/B 비의 변화)

  • Lee, Kyu-Song
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.237-245
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    • 2006
  • Changes of the biomass, net primary productivity and P/B ratio during abandoned field succession after shifting cultivation were investigated in Pyoungchang, Gangwon-Do, Korea. Aboveground standing biomass of herb species showed the maximum value (3.8 ton/ha) in the 5 year old-field, and decreased thereafter. Litter dry weight was depicted as a parabola form showing the gradual increment during the first 50 years and slight decrease thereafter. Basal area tended to increase logarithmically during abandoned field succession. Tree density showed the gradual increment during the first 15 years and decreased thereafter by the self-thinning process. In the later successional stage (80 years old-field), the shoot density distribution of the tree species by DBH class showed the reverse J shaped curve and Quercus mongolica dominated. Total standing biomass increased slowly in the earlier successional stages and later successional stages, and increased rapidly during the mid-successional stages ($10{\sim}50$ years old-field). Total standing biomass in the 5, 10, 20, 50 and 80 years old-fields were estimated 5, 14, 75, 251 and 373 ton/ha, respectively. Annual net primary productivity were depicted as a parabola form showing the gradual increment during the first 35 years and declined thereafter. The increment rates of the annual net primary productivity in the earlier successional stages showed the higher value than mid-successional stages. The annual net primary productivities in the 5, 10, 20, 35, 50 and 80 years old-field were estimated 8.6, 9.3, 12.9, 15.1, 13.7 and 3.6 ton/ha/yr, respectively. The estimated P/B ratio tended to decrease exponentially during abandoned field succession. The estimated P/B ratio in the 5, 10, 20, 50 and 80 years old-field were 0.60, 0.39, 0.19, 0.06 and 0.01, respectively. These results were fairly in accordance with the bioenergetics model during the forest succession projected by Odum(1969).

Microbial Risk Assessment of High Risk Vibrio Foodborne Illness Through Raw Oyster Consumption (생굴 섭취로 인한 고병원성 Vibrio균 식중독 위해평가)

  • Ha, Jimyeong;Lee, Jeeyeon;Oh, Hyemin;Shin, Il-Shik;Kim, Young-Mog;Park, Kwon-Sam;Yoon, Yohan
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2020
  • This study investigated the probability of foodborne illness caused by raw oyster consumption contaminated with high risk Vibrio species such as V. vulnificus and V. cholerae. Eighty-eight raw oyster samples were collected from the south coast, west coast and Seoul areas, and examined for the prevalence of high risk Vibrio species. The growth patterns of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae in raw oysters were evaluated, and consumption frequency and amounts for raw oyster were investigated from a Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. With the collected data, a risk assessment simulation was conducted to estimate the probability of foodborne illness caused by intake of raw oysters, using @RISK. Of 88 raw oysters, there were no V. vulnificus- or V. cholerae-positive samples. Thus, initial contamination levels of Vibrio species in raw oysters were estimated by the statistical methods developed by Vose and Sanaa, and the estimated value for the both Vibrio spp. was -3.6 Log CFU/g. In raw oyster, cell counts of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae remained unchanged. The incidence of raw oyster consumers was 0.35%, and the appropriate probabilistic distribution for the consumption amounts was the exponential distribution. A risk assessment simulation model was developed with the collected data, and the probability of the foodborne illness caused by the consumption of raw oyster was 9.08×10-15 for V. vulnificus and 8.16×10-13 for V. cholerae. Consumption frequency was the first factor, influencing the probability of foodborne illness.

Risk Factors of Recurrent Hemoptysis after Bronchial Artery Embolization (기관지동맥 색전술 후 객혈의 재발에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Wou Young;Byun, Min Kwang;Park, Moo Suk;Hahn, Chang Hoon;Kang, Shin Myung;Lee, Do Yon;Kim, Young Sam;Kim, Se Kyu;Kim, Sung Kyu;Chang, Joon
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.60 no.1
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    • pp.65-71
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    • 2006
  • Background : Hemoptysis, when massive and untreated, has a mortality rate of over 50 percents, is considered as one of most dreaded of all respiratory emergencies and can have a variety of underlying causes. Bronchial artery embolization (BAE) has become an established procedure in the management of massive and recurrent hemoptysis, and its efficacy is widely documented thereafter by number of articles. However, the long-term success rate of BAE is known to be unfavorable. Risk factors influencing that control failure are inevitably needed. Materials and methods : Seventy-five patients underwent bronchial artery embolization due to massive hemoptysis in Severance Hospital from Jan. 2000 to Jan. 2005. Nine patients' data were not available and could not be contacted with. Finally 66 patients' (48 males, 18 females) medical records were analyzed retrospectively during a mean follow up period of 20.4 months (ranging from 1 month to 54 months). Results : Among 66 patients whose data were available, 23(34.9%) patients had recurrent major hemoptysis. Patients' age, sex, underlying disease, previous intervention history, and number of feeding vessels had no statistical validity as risk factors of recurred major hemoptysis. But bilaterality of lesion, amount of hemoptysis, and pleural thickening were revealed as meaningful factors for predicting relapse (p = 0.008, 0.018, and 0.001, respectively). Conclusion : According to our series, patients presenting with larger amount of hemoptysis, pleural thickening of chest radiography and bilateral lesion are associated with increased risk of major hemoptysis in patients treated with BAE.