• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.1-64
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• 2014

This paper attempts to search the driving forces of the Korean economy after 2000 by analyzing an estimated DSGE model and observing the degree of implementation regarding non-systematic parts of both the monetary and fiscal policy during the global financial crisis. Two types of trends, various cyclical factors and frictions are introduced in the model for an empirical analysis in which historical decompositions of key macro variables are quantitatively assessed after 2000. While the monetary policy during the global financial crisis have reacted systematically in accordance with the estimated Taylor rule relatively, the fiscal policy which was aggressively expansionary is not fully explained by the estimated fiscal rule but more by the large magnitude of non-systematic reaction.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.57-80
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• 2004

이 연구에서는 1970년부터 2002년까지의 시계열 자료를 이용하여 우리나라의 사회경제상황이 이혼율 증가에 어떤 영향을 미쳤는지를 분석하였다. Land and Felson(1976)의 거시 동태 사회지표 모형을 바탕으로 경제상황과 남녀 성비, 그리고 이혼 관련법의 개정 등을 분석모형에 포함시켰다. 경제상황에는 여성의 경제활동 참여율, 실업률 그리고 1인당 국내총생산으로 측정된 소득수준을 포함시켰다. 분석의 결과는 실업률과 소득수준이 이혼율의 증가 추이에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 1인당 국내총생산의 수준이 높을수록 이혼율도 증가하는 분석의 결과는 경제적 호황기에는 이혼율이 증가하고 경제적 쇠퇴기에는 이혼율이 감소한다는 선행연구의 주장을 실증적으로 뒷받침해주고 있다. 그러나 실업률이 증가할수록 이혼율도 높아지는 것으로 분석되고 있는데 이는 혼인의 결정 요인과 관련한 남성 중심의 가설을 뒷받침하고 있다. 이러한 연구의 결과는 경제상황을 구성하는 하위요인(소득수준과 실업률)이 이혼율의 변화에 미치는 영향의 기제가 다름을 보여주고 있다. 사회경제상황 자체보다는 경제상황의 변화가 이혼율의 변화에 어떤 영향을 미치는지를 분석하기 위하여 회귀분석의 모형에 변화율을 변수로 포함시킬 경우에는 1977년의 가족법 개정만이 이혼율의 변화율에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 분석에서 이혼율에 영향을 미치는 모든 거시적 요인을 통제하지 못하고 있는데, 이는 이 연구의 내적 타당도를 저해하는 요인이 된다. 우리나라의 경우 이혼율은 경제적 상황보다는 오히려 문화적 또는 사회적 요인에 의해서 결정될 수도 있기 때문에 이혼율을 결정짓는 경제적, 문화적, 그리고 사회적 요인들을 모두 포함하는 분석 모형의 개발과 실증 자료를 이용한 검증은 향후의 연구 과제로 남는다.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.272-287
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• 2013

This paper describes the importance of selecting explanatory variables(e.g. land price determinants) in hedonic pricing models employed in predicting real estate price, and explores dynamics of the land price determinants over time. The City of Junju was chosen as the study area, and repeated measured price data of standard lots over 17 years were analyzed. We applied a three-level modeling approach to this data in consideration of its nested data structure and longitudinal characteristics. Main land price determinants we focused on are primarily based on items included in the standard comparison table of land price, which is an official hedonic pricing model used by Government to estimate land price for tax levy. Our result shows that the land price fluctuation over 17 years was not uniform over the whole study area with each neighborhood revealing different price trend, and as such warrants longitudinal model components. In addition, some of determinants previously recognized as important were proved insignificant. It was also found that significant determinants at a particular time point lost its power gradually over time and vice versa. It is expected that more accurate prediction of price would be possible when taken account for this dynamics of price determinants over time in applying hedonic pricing model method.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.331-350
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• 2011

This paper analyzes balance of goods for a panel data of 56 industry classification in the MTI from 1980 to 2009. This study also develops the equilibrium adjustment process, which is a trade-off between the adjustment costs towards equilibrium costs for balance of goods and the cost of being in disequilibrium. In this framework, the GMM estimation procedure is used to estimate this dynamic panel model consistently. It is found that equilibrium balances of goods in Korean adjust to the speed is very slow to 0.0389. because of this is necessary to adjust the equilibrium goods balance as the cost of goods balance deficit is larger than by the cost. In addition, the real income elasticity for goods balance of resin in Japan and Korea, the real income elasticity 4.38168 and -0.835225, respectively, the marks were consistent with economic theory. The exchange rate elasticity of goods balance in japan to 0.478435 were found in the inelastic.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.62 no.3
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• pp.5-29
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• 2010

This study examines the welfare dynamics in Korea under the scheme of National Basic Livelihood Protection Program(NBLP). Data are drawn from Korean Welfare Panel study 2005~2007. Main findings are summarized as follows. First, the exit probabilities show a declining tendency with time on welfare increases. If the exit probabilities indeed decline over time, the earlier years on welfare deserve more interest in the policy perspective. Moreover, the vast majority of recipients are long-termers. Further efforts are needed to increase self-sufficiency through providing genuine opportunity and necessary support for recipients. Second, out-of-poverty exit and out-of-system exit are quite different in their properties. The results from the multivariate analysis confirm that the dropouts through out-of-system exit are virtually the same with those who remain on welfare. These results imply that the government should not resort to the negative policy proposals such as time limit and strengthening sanctions. Third, several explanatory variables have anticipated effect on welfare exit probabilities. Age, education, health, marital status, the presence of children, employment status have a certain level of impact on exit, with the only exception of gender. Since the identification of the determinants can facilitate sensible targeting on the potential leavers, these results have some implications on policy proposals.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.255-263
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• 2024

GDP represents the total market value of goods and services produced by all economic entities, including households, businesses, and governments in a country, during a specific time period. It is a representative economic indicator that helps identify the size of a country's economy and influences government policies, so various studies are being conducted on it. This paper presents a GDP growth rate forecasting model based on a dynamic factor model using key macroeconomic indicators of G20 countries. The extracted factors are combined with various regression analysis methodologies to compare results. Additionally, traditional time series forecasting methods such as the ARIMA model and forecasting using common components are also evaluated. Considering the significant volatility of indicators following the COVID-19 pandemic, the forecast period is divided into pre-COVID and post-COVID periods. The findings reveal that the dynamic factor model, incorporating ridge regression and lasso regression, demonstrates the best performance both before and after COVID.

• Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.11-17
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• 2009

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to provide an empirical overview of the import patterns of the Eyeglasses and Contactlens industry. Methods: This study used an Engle-Granger cointegration technique and Johansen's multivariate cointegraion methodology test to check the stationarity of the model. This paper also applies Rolling regression to our model, indicating that Eyeglasses and Contact Lens import is endogenous to the economic variable. Results: The empirical results show how the import in Eyeglasses and Contact Lens is related to the economic variables. Conclusions: This paper shows how the import of Eyeglasses and Contactlens is influenced by economic variables, such as exchange rate and industrial product, and seasonal factors.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.209-233
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• 2018

This study investigates the question of how political and economic factors may affect the export of renewable energy technologies. The relationships are tested using panel data for 19 OECD member countries over the period 1992-2012. Before establishing the empirical model, the current study checks the characteristics of the panel data, which includes various panel framework analyses, such as tests for the presence of normality, structural breaks, first-order autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional dependence, panel unit-root. From the panel framework analyses, a dynamic panel model is established to test the relationship between the variables examined in this study. In order to reduce the bias of the estimation of the dynamic panel model and obtain efficient parameters, this study uses the bias-corrected least square dummy variable(LSDVC) estimator to estimate the empirical model. The results of this study show that governmental policies expressed as coercive pressure and market size positively affect the export growth of renewable energy technologies. However, public pressure and traditional energy industry have no significant effects on export performance. Policy implications are presented based on the results of this study.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.181-204
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• 2018

This study examines the existence of a target leverage and determinants of book and market leverage. A data set of shipping firms from 2009 to 2016 was used to conduct an empirical study. The target leverage which cannot be observed in the market is estimated using a partial-adjustment model of firm capital structure. This study found that factors affecting the capital structure differ with respect to firm size, book value leverage and market value leverage. Shipping firms have a target leverage, adjust the actual leverage toward that target leverage, and consider the target leverage as an optimum leverage. The deviation of the leverage from the target leverage plays an important role to explain changes of leverage level. The greater the deviation results in greater adjustment of shipping firms toward targets. A high level of initial debt reduces leverage changes.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.228-243
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• 2007

This study porvides an empirical overview of the import patterns of Incheon port using an Engle-Granger cointegration technique and Johansen's multivariate cointegraion methodology test to check the stationarity of the model. The empirical results show that the import in Incheon port related to the economic variables. This paper also applies rolling regression to our model, indicating that import are endogeneous to the economic variable.