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인공신경망을 이용한 부실기업예측모형 개발에 관한 연구

  • Jung, Yoon;Hwang, Seok-Hae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Database Society Conference
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    • 1999.06a
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    • pp.415-421
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    • 1999
  • Altman의 연구(1965, 1977)나 Beaver의 연구(1986)와 같은 전통적 예측모형은 분석자의 판단에 따른 예측도가 높은 재무비율을 선정하여 다변량판별분석(MDA: multiple discriminant analysis), 로지스틱회귀분석 등과 같은 통계기법을 주로 이용해 왔으나 1980년 후반부터 인공지능 기법인 귀납적 학습방법, 인공신경망모형, 유전모형 둥이 부실기업예측에 응용되기 시작했다. 최근 연구에서는 인공신경망을 활용한 변수 및 모형개발에 관한 보고가 있다. 그러나 지금까지의 연구가 주로 기업의 재무적 비율지표를 고려한 모형에 치중되었으며 정성적 자료인 비재무지표에 대한 검증과 선정이 자의적으로 이루어져온 경향이었다. 또한 너무 많은 입력변수를 사용할 경우 다중공선성 문제를 유발시킬 위험을 내포하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 부실기업예측모형을 수립하기 위하여 정량적 요인인 재무적 지표변수와 정성적요인인 비재무적 지표변수를 모두 고려하였다. 재무적 지표변수는 상관분석 및 요인분석들을 통하여 유의한 변수들을 도출하였으며 비재무적 지표변수는 조직생태학내에서의 조직군내 조직사멸과 관련된 생태적 과정에 대한 요인들 중 조직군 내적요인으로 조직의 연령, 조직의 규모, 조직의 산업밀도를 도출하여 4개의 실험집단으로 분류하여 비재무적 지표변수를 보완하였다. 인공신경망은 다층퍼셉트론(multi-layer perceptrons)과 역방향 학습(back-propagation )알고리듬으로 입력변수와 출력변수, 그리고 하나의 은닉층을 가지는 3층 퍼셉트론(three layer perceptron)을 사용하였으며 은닉충의 노드(node)수는 3개를 사용하였다. 입력변수로 안정성, 활동성, 수익성, 성장성을 나타내는 재무적 지표변수와 조직규모, 조직연령, 그 조직이 속한 산업의 밀도를 비재무적 지표변수로 산정하여 로지스틱회귀 분석과 인공신경망 기법으로 검증하였다. 로지스틱회귀분석 결과에서는 재무적 지표변수 모형의 전체적 예측적중률이 87.50%인 반면에 재무/비재무적 지표모형은 90.18%로서 비재무적 지표변수 사용에 대한 개선의 효과가 나타났다. 표본기업들을 훈련과 시험용으로 구분하여 분석한 결과는 전체적으로 재무/비재무적 지표를 고려한 인공신경망기법의 예측적중률이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 로지스틱회귀분석의 재무적 지표모형은 훈련, 시험용이 84.45%, 85.10%인 반면, 재무/비재무적 지표모형은 84.45%, 85.08%로서 거의 동일한 예측적중률을 가졌으나 인공신경망기법 분석에서는 재무적 지표모형이 92.23%, 85.10%인 반면, 재무/비재무적 지표모형에서는 91.12%, 88.06%로서 향상된 예측적 중률을 나타내었다.

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Analysis of Blasting Vibration at the Irregular Layered Structure Ground (불규칙한 층상구조 지반에서의 발파진동 분석)

  • Kim, Seung Hyun;Lee, Dong Wook
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.891-901
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    • 2016
  • By comparing test blasting data experimented in three layered-structure polymorphic grounds to a geological profile, influence of blast vibration with respect to uncontrollable ground characteristics was analyzed. Inefficient blast have been performed without sufficient verifications or confirmations because insufficiencies with regard to experiments and data of blasting engineering on the layered structures to be irregularly repeated clinker layer consisted of volcanic clastic zones. It is difficult to quantify N values of clinkers within test blasting region because they have diverse ranges, or coverages. An absolute value of attenuation coefficient N in a field, estimated by blasting vibration predictive equation (SRSD), are lesser than criteria of a design instruction, meaning that vibrations caused by blast can spread far away, and the vibrational characteristics of blasting test No.1, indicating relatively small values, inferred by the geological profile, pressures of gas by the explosion may be lost into a widely distributed clinker layers by penetrating holes resulted from blast into vicinity of clinker layers located in bottom of soft rock layers at the moment of blast. As a result, amounts of spalling rocks are decreased by almost half. Also, ranges of primary frequencies in the fields are identified as similar to those of natural frequency of typical structures.

A spectrum based evaluation algorithm for micro scale weather analysis module with application to time series cluster analysis (스펙트럼분석 기반의 미기상해석모듈 평가알고리즘 제안 및 시계열 군집분석에의 응용)

  • Kim, Hea-Jung;Kwak, Hwa-Ryun;Kim, Yu-Na;Choi, Young-Jean
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 2015
  • In meteorological field, many researchers have tried to develop micro scale weather analysis modules for providing real-time weather information service in the metropolitan area. This effort enables us to cope with various economic and social harms coming from serious change in the micro meteorology of a metropolitan area due to rapid urbanization such as quantitative expansions in its urban activity, growth of population, and building concentration. The accuracy of the micro scale weather analysis modules (MSWAM) directly related to usefulness and quality of the real-time weather information service in the metropolitan area. This paper design a evaluation system along with verification tools that sufficiently accommodate spatio-temporal characteristics of the outputs of the MSWAM. For this we proposes a test for the equality of mean vectors of the output series of the MSWAM and corresponding observed time series by using a spectral analysis technique. As a byproduct, a time series cluster analysis method, using a function of the test statistic as the distance measure, is developed. A real data application is given to demonstrate the utility of the method.

The Relations of Teacher-Efficacy and Perception of Principals' Leadership and Peer Collaboration across Job Stress and Satisfaction (초등교사의 지각된 교사효능감, 학교장 지도성, 동료교사 태도 인식의 잠재프로파일에 따른 직무스트레스와 교직만족도 차이)

  • Yeon, Eun Mo;Choi, Hyo-sik
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.9
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    • pp.482-491
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    • 2018
  • This study intended to identify different level of teacher-efficacy, perception of principals' leadership and peer collaboration as it pertains to a teachers' job stress and job satisfaction in Elementary school. Samples include 1,031 teachers in elementary school from Korean Children & Youth Panel Survey(KCYPS) and data were analyzed using Latent Class Analysis(LCA) to identify different patterns of teacher-efficacy and perception of principals' leadership and peer collaboration. Multivariate analysis of variance were employed to identify the influence of predictors for classification of teachers' job stress and job satisfaction among latent classes. The study found three latent classes at risk class, middle-level adaptive class, and adaptive class and results showed that each distinctive class can be identified by some of predictors. Teachers at adaptive class showed higher teacher-efficacy and positive perception of principals' leadership and peer collaboration than teachers at risk and middle-level adaptive class. Also, teachers at adaptive class showed lower job stress and higher job satisfaction than teachers at two other classes. The study suggests that help teachers based on personal profile are effective rather teacher-efficacy and perception of principals' leadership and peer collaboration.

Evaluation Methods of Soil Resilience Related to Agricultural Environment (농업환경 분야에서 토양 리질리언스 분야별 평가 방법)

  • Kim, Min-Suk;Min, Hyun-Gi;Hyun, Seung-Hun;Kim, Jeong-Gyu
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.97-113
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    • 2020
  • Soil is the foundation of human life and the basis for food security. Considering this it is prioritized in the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Therefore, research on soil resilience in the agricultural environment is crucial for sound and sustainable soil management, especially in highly uncertain and unpredictable conditions. Soil resilience is defined in different ways by several researchers; however, its definition typically includes the concepts of recovery and resistance to stress. The physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of soils that are used to assess the soil resilience, i.e., the response of soil to various types of stress are summarized in this study. In addition, various statistical processing techniques and quantification methods are summarized considering the wide spatial and temporal scope of soil resilience research. Several soil resilience studies typically conduct the following five steps: (1) soil and site selection (2) stress (independent variable) setting (3) soil characteristics and indicator (dependent variable) setting (4) performing various spatiotemporal scale experiments (5) statistical analysis. The previous and present studies present a general introduction of soil resilience, based on which, further practical research considering domestic agricultural environment should be conducted. The extensive range of soil resilience measurements will require collaboration between researchers in various fields.

Perceived Quality of Korean Restaurants Influencing on Satisfaction and Behavioral Intentions - From the Perspectives of Asian Tourists to Korea - (만족도와 행동의도에 영향을 미치는 한식당의 지각된 품질 요인에 관한 연구 - 한국을 방문한 아시아 관광객의 관점을 중심으로 -)

  • Im, Hyun-Jung
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.209-225
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    • 2010
  • The main purposes of this study were to assess Asian travelers' perceptions of service quality provided by Korean restaurants and to identify the relationships among perceived quality, satisfaction, and behavioral intentions. The survey was administered during one-month period of January-February 2009, targeting tourists from China, Taiwan, and Japan who were visiting Korea through escorted tour packages offered by several Korean travel agencies. A total of 223 copies of the questionnaire were collected for the data analyses such as descriptive statistics, factor analysis, MANOVA, and multiple regression analysis using SPSS 12.0 program. The main results of this study were as follows: 1) The results of the gap analysis indicated that the service quality in several areas provided by the Korean restaurants did not meet the tourists' expectations; 2) The factor analysis identified four underlying dimensions of travelers' perceptions of overall service quality provided by Korean restaurants ("value and quality of foodservice", "menu choices", "service quality of employees", and "quality of surrounding area"); and 3) Through multiple regression analyses, three determinants ("value and quality of foodservice", "menu choices", and "service quality of employees") were found to have the greatest impact on tourists' satisfaction and behavioral intentions.

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An Analysis of Differences in Motivation, Self-regulation Strategy use, Learning Style Preference among High, Medium, Low Achievers in an Online Gifted Program (온라인 영재교육 프로그램 성취 수준에 따른 학생의 동기, 자기조절전략, 학습양식 차이 분석)

  • Chae, Yoojung;Lee, Sunghye
    • Journal of Gifted/Talented Education
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.905-926
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    • 2015
  • This study examined differences among high, medium, and low achievers' motivation, self-regulation strategy, and learning style in an online gifted program. The sample included 788 middle and high school students who participated in the 3-months online gifted program. Participants volunteerly completed 60 questions on their motivation, self-regulation strategy use, and learning style. Multivariate analysis of variance(MANOVA) was conducted for data analysis using SPSS 19.0. The results of this study showed that (1) as levels of students' achievement increased, levels of intrinsic motivation increased as well; (2) statistically significant differences also existed on the levels of elaboration strategy, effort management, and time management strategy use among three levels of achievement and (3) no significant differences in students' learning style preference were found between competitive or cooperative learning style. To sum up, high achieving students' levels of intrinsic motivation, elaboration strategy, effort management strategy, and time management strategy use were the highest compared to medium and low achieving students.

Influences of Father's Involvement in Parenting on Child's Problematic Behaviors and Mother's Psychological Well-being: Focused on Latent Classes Growth Analysis (아버지 양육참여 변화 유형에 따른 자녀의 문제행동 및 어머니의 심리적 특성 차이 비교: 잠재계층성장모형 적용을 중심으로)

  • Yeon, Eun Mo;Choi, Hyo-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.468-476
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    • 2020
  • This study investigated how latent groups depend on the longitudinal trajectories observed in fathers' involvement in parenting over a five year period, and the study also determined differences in children's behavioral problems and mother's parenting stress, marital satisfaction, and depression among these groups. By utilizing 1,316 sets of data from 1st to 5th Panel Survey of PSKC beginning in 2008, we examined the patterns of the latent groups and the differences among them. The results showed that, first, a changing pattern of fathers' involvement in parenting is classified into four groups: a low-stable group, a decreasing group. a middle-high changeable group, and a highest changeable group. According to the results of the latent groups, the fathers' involvement in parenting commonly started to decrease at the children's age of 4 years old. Second, problematic behaviors of children appeared more from the fathers in the decreasing group. Third, parenting stress, marital conflict, and depression were more often found in the low-stable group that in the decreasing group. the middle-high changeable group and the highest changeable group (in that order), while marital satisfaction showed a completely opposite pattern. Based on these results, political intervention and the future direction of research for fathers' involvement in parenting are needed in order to increase better behaviors of their children as well as the psychological well-being of their mothers.

Relationships Among the Big Five Personality Traits, Psychological Well-being, and College Adaptation of Pre-service Teachers (교육대학교 학생의 성격 5요인에 기초한 잠재적 성격 특성 유형과 심리적 안녕감, 대학생활적응 간의 관계)

  • Lee, Myung-Sook;Choi, Hyo-Sik;Yeon, Eun-Mo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.71-81
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    • 2019
  • To extend the potential benefits of error, the current study examined factors that affect students' error perception in the classroom. An experimental design was used to measure relations of classroom goal structure, feedback, and social relationships on students' perception of error. A total of 316 fourth-, fifth-, and sixth-grade elementary students participated as part of their regular class curriculum. Self-reported questionnaires were administered to measure students' perception of errors and relationships with teacher and peers, and then students were manipulated by classroom goal structure and feedback. Multiple regression analysis results suggested that students' perception of learning from error was affected mostly by relationships with peers, followed by relationships with teacher and the type of feedback. Students' perception of risk taking for error was also affected by relationships with peers and teacher, followed by the classroom goal structure. However, classroom goal structure and feedback did not affect their perception of thinking about error to improve their learning as well as error strain. These results imply how the classroom climate should be structured to improve perception of errors to improve student's learning.

Exploring the Latent Classes in Students' Executive Function Difficulty by Mother and Teacher: Multivariate Analysis across School Adaption and Academic Performance (초등학생의 집행기능곤란에 대한 어머니와 담임교사 평정에 따른 잠재집단 탐색 및 학교적응, 학업수행 차이 검증)

  • Yeon, Eun Mo;Choi, Hyo-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.38-47
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study was to identify latent classes in executive function difficulty of first graders depends on evaluations from their mother and teacher and to investigate how its related with their school adaption and academic performance in second grade. Based on the model of the latent profile analysis, the 8th and 9th wave data from Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey were analyzed. The results of this study were as following. First, results showed that there were three types of latent classes in the executive function difficulty depend on evaluations from their mother and teacher: 'low executive function,' 'students who were highly evaluated by mother,' and 'students who were highly evaluated by teacher.' Second, students' executive function difficulty had a direct effect on the students' school adaption and academic performance in their second year of school. Especially students who were evaluated as having the lowest executive function difficulty showed significant higher means than students who were evaluated higher by mother and teacher. This study emphasized the importance of multiple evaluation in students' executive function difficulty to provide an educational intervention.