• Title/Summary/Keyword: 다변량정규분포

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Remarks on the Use of Multivariate Skewness and Kurtosis for Testing Multivariate Normality (정규성 검정을 위한 다변량 왜도와 첨도의 이용에 대한 고찰)

  • 김남현
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.507-518
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    • 2004
  • Malkovich & Afifi (1973) generalized the univariate skewness and kurtosis to test a hypothesis of multivariate normality by use of the union-intersection principle. However these statistics are hard to compute for high dimensions. We propose the approximate statistics to them, which are practical for a high dimensional data set. We also compare the proposed statistics to Mardia(1970)'s multivariate skewness and kurtosis by a Monte Carlo study.

Multivariate empirical distribution functions and descriptive methods (다변량 경험분포함수와 시각적인 표현방법)

  • Hong, Chong Sun;Park, Jun;Park, Yong Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.87-98
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    • 2017
  • The multivaiate empirical distribution function (MEDF) is defined in this work. The MEDF's expectation and variance are derived and we have shown the MEDF converges to its real distribution function. Based on random samples from bivariate standard normal distribution with various correlation coefficients, we also obtain MEDFs and propose two kinds of graphical methods to visualize MEDFs on two dimensional plane. One is represented with at most n stairs with similar arguments as the step function, and the other is described with at most n curves which look like bivariate quantile vector. Even though these two descriptive methods could be expressed with three dimensional space, two dimensional representation is obtained with ease and it is enough to explain characteristics of bivariate distribution functions. Hence, it is possible to visualize trivariate empirical distribution functions with three dimensional quantile vectors. With bivariate and four variate illustrative examples, the proposed MEDFs descriptive plots are obtained and explored.

Properties of alternative VaR for multivariate normal distributions (다변량 정규분포에서 대안적인 VaR의 특성)

  • Hong, Chong Sun;Lee, Gi Pum
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.1453-1463
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    • 2016
  • The most useful financial risk measure may be VaR (Value at Risk) which estimates the maximum loss amount statistically. The VaR tends to be estimated in many industries by using transformed univariate risk including variance-covariance matrix and a specific portfolio. Hong et al. (2016) are defined the Vector at Risk based on the multivariate quantile vector. When a specific portfolio is given, one point among Vector at Risk is founded as the best VaR which is called as an alternative VaR (AVaR). In this work, AVaRs have been investigated for multivariate normal distributions with many kinds of variance-covariance matrix and various portfolio weight vectors, and compared with VaRs. It has been found that the AVaR has smaller values than VaR. Some properties of AVaR are derived and discussed with these characteristics.

Detection of the Change in Blogger Sentiment using Multivariate Control Charts (다변량 관리도를 활용한 블로거 정서 변화 탐지)

  • Moon, Jeounghoon;Lee, Sungim
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.903-913
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    • 2013
  • Social network services generate a considerable amount of social data every day on personal feelings or thoughts. This social data provides changing patterns of information production and consumption but are also a tool that reflects social phenomenon. We analyze negative emotional words from daily blogs to detect the change in blooger sentiment using multivariate control charts. We used the all the blogs produced between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2009. Hotelling's T-square control chart control chart is commonly used to monitor multivariate quality characteristics; however, it assumes that quality characteristics follow multivariate normal distribution. The performance of a multivariate control chart is affected by this assumption; consequently, we introduce the support vector data description and its extension (K-control chart) suggested by Sun and Tsung (2003) and they are applied to detect the chage in blogger sentiment.

Characteristics of Kill Probability Distribution of Air Track Within the Engagement Space Using Multivariate Probability Density Function & Bayesian Theorem (다변량 확률밀도함수와 베이지안 정리를 이용한 교전공간내 공중항적의 격추확률 분포 특성)

  • Hong, Dong-Wg;Aye, Sung-Man;Kim, Ju-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.521-528
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    • 2021
  • In order to allocate an appropriate interceptor weapon to an air track for which the threat assessment has been completed, it is necessary to evaluate the suitability of engagement in consideration of the expected point of engagement. In this thesis, a method of calculating the kill probability is proposed according to the position in the engagement space using Bayesian theorem with multivariate attribute information such as relative distance, approach azimuth angle, and altitude of the air track when passing through the engagement space. As a result of the calculation, it was confirmed that the distribution form of the kill probability value for each point in the engagement space follows a multivariate normal distribution based on the optimal predicted intercepting point. It is expected to be applicable to the engagement suitability evaluation of the engagement space.

Genetic Selection Problems under Multivariate Normal Distribution (다변량 정규분포에서의 선발효과(I): 유전편차의 비율에 대하여)

  • Shin, Han Poong
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.59-63
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    • 1974
  • 표현형 변수 Y가 유전변수 X와 환경변수 E로 표시되고 X와 E가 상호독립이며 각각 다음과 같은 정규분포를 한다고 하자. $$X\simN(\mu,\sigma^2), E\simN)0,\omega^2)$$ 대체로 $Y \geq y$이거나 $Y \leq y$인 형태일 때 유전 및 육동적 선발은 Y=X+E의 형태로 나타난다. 롭슨[3]은 선발을 반복하였을 때 유전변수 X의 평균기대치와 유전변수 X의 조건부분포의 영향을 연구하였고 이와같은 일변량분포의 경우 선발의 효과는 전분산에 대한 유전분산의 비에 달려있다 하였다. 이러한 선발모형을 p-차원 공간에 적용하면 유전편차의 비율을 구할 수 있다.

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VaR Estimation of Multivariate Distribution Using Copula Functions (Copula 함수를 이용한 이변량분포의 VaR 추정)

  • Hong, Chong-Sun;Lee, Jae-Hyung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.523-533
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    • 2011
  • Most nancial preference methods for market risk management are to estimate VaR. In many real cases, it happens to obtain the VaRs of the univariate as well as multivariate distributions based on multivariate data. Copula functions are used to explore the dependence of non-normal random variables and generate the corresponding multivariate distribution functions in this work. We estimate Archimedian Copula functions including Clayton Copula, Gumbel Copula, Frank Copula that are tted to the multivariate earning rate distribution, and then obtain their VaRs. With these Copula functions, we estimate the VaRs of both a certain integrated industry and individual industries. The parameters of three kinds of Copula functions are estimated for an illustrated stock data of two Korean industries to obtain the VaR of the bivariate distribution and those of the corresponding univariate distributions. These VaRs are compared with those obtained from other methods to discuss the accuracy of the estimations.

Bivariate regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfalls in Korea (이변량 지역빈도해석을 이용한 우리나라 극한 강우 분석)

  • Shin, Ju-Young;Jeong, Changsam;Ahn, Hyunjun;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.9
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    • pp.747-759
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    • 2018
  • Multivariate regional frequency analysis has advantages of regional and multivariate framework as adopting a large number of regional dataset and modeling phenomena that cannot be considered in the univariate frequency analysis. To the best of our knowledge, the multivariate regional frequency analysis has not been employed for hydrological variables in South Korea. Applicability of the multivariate regional frequency analysis should be investigated for the hydrological variable in South Korea in order to improve our capacity to model the hydrological variables. The current study focused on estimating parameters of regional copula and regional marginal models, selecting the most appropriate distribution models, and estimating regional multivariate growth curve in the multivariate regional frequency analysis. Annual maximum rainfall and duration data observed at 71 stations were used for the analysis. The results of the current study indicate that Frank and Gumbel copula models were selected as the most appropriate regional copula models for the employed regions. Several distributions, e.g. Gumbel and log-normal, were the representative regional marginal models. Based on relative root mean square error of the quantile growth curves, the multivariate regional frequency analysis provided more stable and accurate quantiles than the multivariate at-site frequency analysis, especially for long return periods. Application of regional frequency analysis in bivariate rainfall-duration analysis can provide more stable quantile estimation for hydraulic infrastructure design criteria and accurate modelling of rainfall-duration relationship.

CTE with weighted portfolios (가중 포트폴리오에서의 CTE)

  • Hong, Chong Sun;Shin, Dong Sik;Kim, Jae Young
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.119-130
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    • 2017
  • In many literatures on VaR and CTE for multivariate distribution, these are estimated by using transformed univariate distribution with a specific ratio of many kinds of portfolios. Even though there are lots of works to define quantiles for multivariate distributions, there does not exist a quantile uniquely. Hence, it is not easy to define the VaR and CTE. In this paper, we propose the weighted CTE vectors corresponding to various ratio combinations of many kinds of portfolios by extending the researches on the alternative VaR and integrated multivariate CTE based on multivariate quantiles. We extend relation equations about univariate CTEs to multivariate CTE vectors and discuss their characteristics. The proposed weighted CTEs are explored with some data from multivariate normal distribution and illustrative examples.

Multivariate conditional tail expectations (다변량 조건부 꼬리 기대값)

  • Hong, C.S.;Kim, T.W.
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.1201-1212
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    • 2016
  • Value at Risk (VaR) for market risk management is a favorite method used by financial companies; however, there are some problems that cannot be explained for the amount of loss when a specific investment fails. Conditional Tail Expectation (CTE) is an alternative risk measure defined as the conditional expectation exceeded VaR. Multivariate loss rates are transformed into a univariate distribution in real financial markets in order to obtain CTE for some portfolio as well as to estimate CTE. We propose multivariate CTEs using multivariate quantile vectors. A relationship among multivariate CTEs is also derived by extending univariate CTEs. Multivariate CTEs are obtained from bivariate and trivariate normal distributions; in addition, relationships among multivariate CTEs are also explored. We then discuss the extensibility to high dimension as well as illustrate some examples. Multivariate CTEs (using variance-covariance matrix and multivariate quantile vector) are found to have smaller values than CTEs transformed to univariate. Therefore, it can be concluded that the proposed multivariate CTEs provides smaller estimates that represent less risk than others and that a drastic investment using this CTE is also possible when a diversified investment strategy includes many companies in a portfolio.