• Title/Summary/Keyword: 네스티드 로짓

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A Study on the Transport Mode Choice for Asian Highway No.6 Route (아시안하이웨이 6번 노선의 국제여객 교통수단선택에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Back Jin;Lee, Se Hong;Lee, Yun Seok;Lee, Deok Hwan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.875-886
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    • 2015
  • By promoting the international transportation and the improvement of advanced exchange between South and North Korea, the Asian Highway plan was expected to make considerable economical effects in the North-East Asian region. This study focuses on a part of AH6 route (i.e., South Korea-North Korea-China-Far East Russia) and aims to analyze the behavioral change of international passenger transport around the Korean Peninsula by assuming the non-existent North Korea land transport network connectivity. The study was performed using two main methods. First, a stated preference survey was performed to derive the actual modal share of each travel mode. Second, a disaggregate analysis was performed to develop possible mode-choice models for international passenger travel and find out the suitable choice. Based on the results of the model estimation, it is found that over 90% of the international passenger transport would be converted to land transport (rail+highway). In addition, international railroad modal share rate would be increased from 62.8% to 66.1% and international bus would be decreased from 29.6% to 21.9% as the distance lengthened (903km~1,631km).

Model Specification and Estimation Method for Traveler's Mode Choice Behavior in Pusan Metropolitan Area (부산광역권 교통수단선택모형의 정립과 모수추정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Ik-Ki;Kim, Kang-Soo;Kim, Hyoung-Chul
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.3 s.81
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    • pp.7-19
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    • 2005
  • Mode choice Analysis is essential analysis stage in transportation demand forecasting process. Therefore, methods for calibration and forecasting of mode choice model in aspect of practical view need to be discussed in depth. Since 1980s, choice models, especially Logit model, are spread widely and rapidly over academic area, research institutes and consulting firms in Korea like other developed countries in the world. However, the process of calibration and parameter estimation for practical application was not clearly explained in previous papers and reports. This study tried to explain clearly the calibration process of mode choice step by step and suggested a forecasting mode choice model that can be applicable in real policy analysis by using household survey data of Pusan metropolitan are. The study also suggested a way of estimating attributes which was not observed during the household survey commonly such as travel time and cost of unchosen alternative modes. The study summarized the statistical results of model specification for four different Logit models as a process to upgrade model capability of explanation for real traveler's choice behaviors. By using the analysis results, it also calculated the value of travel time and compared them with the values of other previous studies to test reliability of the estimated model.

Analysis of the Effects of Radio Traffic Information on Urban Worker's Travel Choice Behavior (교통방송이 제공하는 교통정보가 직장인의 통행행태에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • 윤대식
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.33-43
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    • 2002
  • Travel choice behavior is affected by real-time traffic information. Recently, in urban area, real-time traffic information is provided by several instruments such as transportation broadcasting, internet PC network and variable message sign, etc. Furthermore, it has been increasing for urban travelers to use real-time traffic information provided by several instruments. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of advanced traveler information on urban worker's travel choice behavior. Among several Advanced Traveler Information System(ATIS) employed in urban area. This study focuses on examining the effects of transportation broadcasting on urban worker's travel choice behavior. This study attempts to examine traveler's mode change behavior in the pre-trip stage and traveler's route change behavior in the on-route stage. For this study, the survey data collected from Daegu City in 2000 is used. For empirical analysis, several nested logit models are estimated, and among them, the best models are reported in this paper. Furthermore, based on the empirical models estimated for this research, important findings and their policy implications are discussed.

Evaluating the Policy of Transfer System to Promote a Use of the Busan Subway (지하철 이용 활성화를 위한 환승체계의 정책대안 평가)

  • Jung, Hun-Young;Choi, Chi-Gook
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.2 s.73
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    • pp.27-39
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this paper presents realistic policy alternative about recent tendency to decrease of subway-users and diminution of use efficiency which are serious problems of Busan Subway. Several policy alternatives have been studied until now, such as subway transfer impedance solution plan, introduction of subway to transfer fare discounting policy, and etc.. But, those policy alternatives are difficult to carried out, because they are less effective and overburden to financial aspect. Therefore, I made use of research on subway utilization to presuppose service improvement, as an alternative, in the transfer fare discounting system between bus and subway which might be powerful influence over subway-users. To verify this proposed study, I took advantage of Stated Preference(SP) where I estimated fare revenue and effects on fluctuation of subway-users with nested logit model based on research results. Suitable alternatives are as follows: First, If municipal government carries out transfer fare discounting policy without shortening in-vehicle time and out-of-vehicle time transfer fare, it is reasonable to discount transfer fare 50% off on the assumption of financial support as much as \6.700 million annually. Secondly, in case of application of multi-factors at a time, transfer fare discounting and in & out vehicle time, it is preferred to have no charge for transfer option with financial support as much as expected income-loss \5,600 million.

네스티드로짓모형을 이용한 쇼핑통행의 형태분석에 관한 연구

  • 이현구;조동래
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.19-34
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    • 1989
  • In general, Shopping centers are located in the center of transportation, which induce more traffic concentration than other facilities. As a result, it becomes to one of the aggravating factors of urban & transportation problem such as traffic conjestion, parking problems. Thus, in planning shopping-center, it is desirable that consumer\`s trip pattern is should lie more carefully analyzed in order to alleviate the above problems. This study is aimed at finding the characteristics of shopping tripes and analyzing the choice behavior of shopping center and mode-to-shop. This study has developed a nested logit model in which consumers choose shopping center and mode-to-shop with a sequential structure. The model was estimated using household data from the 1989 May, Seoul metropolitan area and the 18 alternatives of shopping center and 5 mode alternatives. The estimated model have been evaluated and it may be concluded that this model for shopping trips is effective and fesible. The conclusion of this study are as fellows. 1. Out-of-vehicle travel time is more important factor affecting behavior of mode choice than in-vehicle travel time. 2. All of direct-elasticities for mode with respect to the travel time is more elastic than travel cost. 3. Accessibility to shop is more important factor affecting the choice of shopping center than parking space. 4. The value of out-of-vehicle travel time exceeds the value of in-vesicle travel time by 1.64 times.

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Calculation of Travel Time Values in Seoul Metropolitan Area Considering Unique Travel Patterns (수도권 통행 특성을 고려한 통행시간가치 산정 연구)

  • KIM, Kyung Hyun;LEE, Jang-Ho;YUN, Ilsoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.481-498
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    • 2017
  • Travel time reduction benefit is the most important benefit item in the feasibility study of transportation infrastructure investment projects and calculated by using the value of travel time. The current feasibility study guideline (5th edition) calculate the value of non-business ravel time in a metropolitan area, using the ratio of the value of non-business travel time to business travel time calculated based on the nationwide inter-regional traffic survey data of 1999. The characteristics of metropolitan trips are different from those of nationwide regional trips. Metropolitan trips have frequent transfers between multiple public transits and long-time commuter trips. Therefore, this research aims to calculate the value of travel time reflecting traffic characteristics in a metropolitan area by improving the limitation of current calculation methods. To reflect these characteristics, this research extracts commuter trips from non-business trips and calculates the value of travel time for commuter trips. The results of the likelihood ratio test for the commuter trip model and the non-business trip model are found to be statistically significant. An integrated public transportation model was also estimated in this study to reflect the trip conditions of the Seoul metropolitan area integrated fare system. The results of comparing coefficients between bus and subway in the integrated public transit model indicated that there were no statistically significant differences between the two modes.

Analysis of the Elderly Travel Characteristics and Travel Behavior with Daily Activity Schedules (the Case of Seoul, Korea) (활동 스케줄 분석을 통한 고령자의 통행특성과 통행행태에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Sang-Eon;Jeong, Jin-Hyeok;Kim, Sun-Gwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.5 s.91
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    • pp.89-108
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    • 2006
  • Korea has been entering the ageing society as the population of age over 65 shared over 7% since the year 2000. The ageing society needs to have transportation facility considering elderly people's travel behavior. This study aims to understand the elderly people's travel behavior using recent data in Korea. The activity schedule approach begins with travel outcomes are part of an activitv scheduling decision. For tho?e approach. used discrete choice models (especially. Nested Logit Model) to address the basic modeling problem capturing decision interaction among the many choice dimensions of the immense activity schedule choice set The day activity schedule is viewed as a sot of tours and at-home activity episodes tied togather with overarching day activity pattern using the Seoul Metropolitan Area Transportation Survey data, which was conducted in June, 2002. Decisions about a specific tour in the schedule are conditioned by the choice of day activity pattern. The day activity scheduling model estimated in this study consists of tours interrelated in a day activity pattern. The day activity pattern model represents the basic decision of activity participation and priorities and places each activity in a configuration of tours and at-home episodes. Each pattern alternative is defined by the primary activity of the day, whether the primary activity occurs at home or away, and the type of tour for the primary activity. In travel mode choice of the elderly and non-workers, especially, travel cost was found to be important in understanding interpersonal variations in mode choice behavior though, travel time was found to be less important factor in choosing travel mode. In addition, although, generally, the elderly was likely to choose transit mode, private mode was preferred for the elderly over 75 years old owing to weakened physical health for such things as going up and down of stairs. Therefore. as entering the ageing society, transit mode should be invested heavily in transportation facility Planning tor improving elderly transportation service. Although the model has not yet been validated in before-and-after prediction studies. this study gives strong evidence of its behavioral soundness, current practicality. and potential for improving reliability of transportation Projects superior to those of the best existing systems in Korea.

Market Structure Analysis of Automobile Market in U.S.A (미국자동차시장의 구조분석)

  • Choi, In-Hye;Lee, Seo-Goo;Yi, Seong-Keun
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.141-156
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    • 2008
  • Market structure analysis is a very useful tool to analyze the competition boundary of the brand or the company. But most of the studies in market structure analysis, the concern lies in nondurable goods such as candies, soft drink and etc. because of the their availability of the data. In the field of durable goods, the limitation of the data availability and the repurchase time period constrain the study. In the analysis of the automobile market, those of views might be more persuasive. The purpose of this study is to analyze the structure of automobile market based on some idea suggested by prior studies. Usually the buyers of the automobile tend to buy upper tier when they buy in the next time. That kind of behavior make it impossible to analyze the structure of automobile market under the level of automobile model. For that reason I tried to analyze the market structure in the brand or company level. In this study, consideration data was used for market structure analysis. The reasons why we used the consideration data are summarized as following. Firstly, as the repurchase time cycle is too long, brand switching data which is used for the market analysis of nondurable good is not avaliable. Secondly, as we mentioned, the buyers of the automobile tend to buy upper tier when they buy in the next time. We used survey data collected in the U.S.A. market in the year of 2005 through questionaire. The sample size was 8,291. The number of brand analyzed in this study was 9 among 37 which was being sold in U.S.A. market. Their market share was around 50%. The brands considered were BMW, Chevrolet, Chrysler, Dodge, Ford, Honda, Mercedes, and Toyota. �� ratio was derived from frequency of the consideration set. Actually the frequency is different from the brand switch concept. In this study to compute the �� ratio, the frequency of the consideration set was used like a frequency of brand switch for convenience. The study can be divided into 2 steps. The first step is to build hypothetical market structures. The second step is to choose the best structure based on the hypothetical market structures, Usually logit analysis is used for the choice best structure. In this study we built 3 hypothetical market structure. They are type-cost, cost-type, and unstructured. We classified the automobile into 5 types, sedan, SUV(Sport Utility Vehicle), Pickup, Mini Van, and Full-size Van. As for purchasing cost, we classified it 2 groups based on the median value. The median value was $28,800. To decide best structure among them, maximum likelihood test was used. Resulting from market structure analysis, we find that the automobile market of USA is hierarchically structured in the form of 'automobile type - purchasing cost'. That is, result showed that automobile buyers considered function or usage first and purchasing cost next. This study has some limitations in the analysis level and variable selection. First, in this study only type of the automobile and purchasing cost were as attributes considered for purchase. Considering other attributes is very needful. Because of the attributes considered, only 3 hypothetical structure could be analyzed. Second, due to the data, brand level analysis was tried. But model level analysis would be better because automobile buyers consider model not brand. To conduct model level study more cases should be obtained. That is for acquiring the better practical meaning, brand level analysis should be conducted when we consider the actual competition which occurred in the real market. Third, the variable selection for building nested logit model was very limited to some avaliable data. In spite of those limitations, the importance of this study lies in the trial of market structure analysis of durable good.

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A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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