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Analysis of Long-term Changes in Precipitation and Runoff over the River Basins of Korea (한반도 수계별 강수 및 유출의 장기 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Yoo-Rim;Oh, Jai-Ho;Her, Mo-Rang
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.71-71
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    • 2011
  • 지난 세기동안 지구 평균 기온이 상승함에 따라 대기 중에 차지하는 수증기 함유량 또한 증가 추이를(7%/$^{\circ}C$) 보이고 있으며, 이는 전 세계적으로 수문 순환 패턴의 변화를 초래한다(IPCC, 2007). 그 중에서도 강수 특성의 변화는 궁극적으로 유출량의 변화를 초래하며, 이는 수자원 총량의 변화로 이어지게 된다. 특히, 여름철에 대부분의 강수 현상이 집중되는 우리나라의 경우 육지의 70% 정도가 산악 지형으로 이루어진 복잡한 지리적 영향으로 집중호우 시 홍수가 일시에 유출되어 이에 따른 인적 물적 피해가 해마다 되풀이 되고 있다. 수자원은 인간 생활과 밀접한 관계에 있기 때문에 이러한 극심한 기후변화에 의한 피해를 최소화하기 위해 수계단위의 효율적인 물관리가 필수적이다. 따라서 한반도 내 주요 강(한강, 금강, 영산강, 섬진강, 낙동강)을 중심으로 수계별 강수량 및 유출량의 장기 특성 변화를 살펴보고자 한다. 장기간의 자료를 보유하고 있는 기상청 산하 27개 지점의 시간 강수량 자료 및 국가 수자원관리 종합정보시스템에서 제공하는 장기유출 자료를 수집하여 수계 평균값을 산정하고, 각 수계별 강수량 및 유출량의 장기 추이 및 변동성, 상관도를 알아보고자 하였다. 최근 36년 동안(1973~2008년) 모든 수계에서 연총강수량이 증가하는 추이를 보였으며, 한강 수계에서 유의수준 5% 내에서 가장 높은 증가율(약 10 mm/yr)을, 섬진강 수계에서 가장 낮은 증가율(약 4 mm/yr)을 나타냈다. 여름철 집중호우(20 mm/hr 이상) 빈도 분석 결과, 모든 수계에서 호우 빈도의 증가 경향이 뚜렷함을 볼 수 있다. 특히, 최근 10년간(1999~2008) 호우빈도의 변화를 살펴보면 섬진강 수계의 경우 총 60번으로 가장 많았고 상대적으로 낙동강 수계에서 35번으로 가장 적었다. 여름철 무강수일수(강수량이 0.1 mm 미만인 일수)의 경우 모든 수계에서 거의 완만한 감소추세를 보임을 확인할 수 있었다. 1970~2001년간 연총유출량의 경우 한강 및 금강 수계의 경우 증가하는 경향을 나타내는 반면 섬진강 수계의 경우 오히려 감소하며, 영산강 및 낙동강 수계에서는 뚜렷한 변화를 볼 수 없었다. 월별 유출량의 경우 모든 수계에서 7월, 8월, 9월에 집중되며, 한강 수계에서 8월, 그 외 수계에서는 7월에 가장 높은 값을 보였다. 향후 장기적인 관점에서 바라 본 강수량과 유출량의 관계에 관한 추가적인 연구를 통하여 신뢰성 있는 기후변화에 따른 수자원 영향 평가에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

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Development of Simulation Method to Design Rover's Camera System for Extreme Region Exploration (극한지 탐사 로버의 카메라 시스템 설계를 위한 시뮬레이션 기법 개발)

  • Kim, Changjae;Park, Jaemin;Choi, Kanghyuk;Shin, Hyu-Soung;Hong, Sungchul
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.12
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    • pp.271-279
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    • 2019
  • In extreme environment regions, unmanned rovers equipped with various sensors and devices are being developed for long-term exploration on behalf of humans. On the other hand, due to the harsh weather conditions and rough terrain, the rover camera has limited visible distance and field of view. Therefore, the rover cameras should be located for safe navigation and efficient terrain mapping. In this regard, to minimize the cost and time to manufacture the camera system on a rover, the simulation method using the rover design is presented to optimize the camera locations on the rover efficiently. In the simulation, a simulated terrain was taken from cameras with different locations and angles. The visible distance and overlapped extent of camera images, and terrain data accuracy calculated from the simulation were compared to determine the optimal locations of the rover's cameras. The simulated results will be used to manufacture a rover and camera system. In addition, self and system calibrations will be conducted to calculate the accurate position of the camera system on the rover.

Prediction of Temperature and Heat Wave Occurrence for Summer Season Using Machine Learning (기계학습을 활용한 하절기 기온 및 폭염발생여부 예측)

  • Kim, Young In;Kim, DongHyun;Lee, Seung Oh
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.27-38
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    • 2020
  • Climate variations have become worse and diversified recently, which caused catastrophic disasters for our communities and ecosystem including economic property damages in Korea. Heat wave of summer season is one of causes for such damages of which outbreak tends to increase recently. Related short-term forecasting information has been provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration based on results from numerical forecasting model. As the study area, the ◯◯ province was selected because of the highest mortality rate in Korea for the past 15 years (1998~2012). When comparing the forecasted temperatures with field measurements, it showed RMSE of 1.57℃ and RMSE of 1.96℃ was calculated when only comparing the data corresponding to the observed value of 33℃ or higher. The forecasting process would take at least about 3~4 hours to provide the 4 hours advanced forecasting information. Therefore, this study proposes a methodology for temperature prediction using LSTM considering the short prediction time and the adequate accuracy. As a result of 4 hour temperature prediction using this approach, RMSE of 1.71℃ was occurred. When comparing only the observed value of 33℃ or higher, RMSE of 1.39℃ was obtained. Even the numerical prediction model of the whole range of errors is relatively smaller, but the accuracy of prediction of the machine learning model is higher for above 33℃. In addition, it took an average of 9 minutes and 26 seconds to provide temperature information using this approach. It would be necessary to study for wider spatial range or different province with proper data set in near future.

Investigating Remotely Sensed Precipitation from Different Sources and Their Nonlinear Responses in a Physically Based Hydrologic Model (다른 원격탐사 센서로 추출한 강우자료의 이질성과 이에 의한 비선형유출반응에 미치는 영향)

  • Oh, Nam-Sun;Lee, Khil-Ha;Kim, Sang-Jun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.10 s.171
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    • pp.823-832
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    • 2006
  • Precipitation is the most important component to the study of water and energy cycle in hydrology. In this study we investigate rainfall retrieval uncertainty from different sources of remotely sensed precipitation field and then probable error propagation in the simulation of hydrologic variables especially, runoff on different vegetation cover. Two remotely sensed rainfall retrievals (space-borne IR-only and ground radar rainfall) are explored and compared visually and statistically. Then, an offline Community Land Model (CLM) is forced with in situ meteorological data to simulate the amount of runoff and determine their impact on model predictions. A fundamental assumption made in this study is that CLM can adequately represent the physical land surface processes. Results show there are big differences between different sources of precipitation fields in terms of the magnitude and temporal variability. The study provides some intuitions on the uncertainty of hydrologic prediction via the interaction between the land surface and near atmosphere fluxes in the modelling approach. Eventually it will contribute to the understanding of water resources redistribution to the climate change in Korean Peninsula.

Analysis on Spatiotemporal Variability of Erosion and Deposition Using a Distributed Hydrologic Model (분포형 수문모형을 이용한 침식 및 퇴적의 시.공간 변동성 분석)

  • Lee, Gi-Ha;Yu, Wan-Sik;Jang, Chang-Lae;Jung, Kwan-Sue
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.11
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    • pp.995-1009
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    • 2010
  • Accelerated soil erosion due to extreme climate change, such as increased rainfall intensity, and human-induced environmental changes, is a widely recognized problem. Existing soil erosion models are generally based on the gross erosion concept to compute annual upland soil loss in tons per acre per year. However, such models are not suitable for event-based simulations of erosion and deposition in time and space. Recent advances in computer geographic information system (GIS) technologies have allowed hydrologists to develop physically based models, and the trend in erosion prediction is towards process-based models, instead of conceptually lumped models. This study aims to propose an effective and robust distributed rainfall-sediment yield-runoff model consisting of basic element modules: a rainfall-runoff module based on the kinematic wave method for subsurface and surface flow, and a runoff-sediment yield-runoff model based on the unit stream power method. The model was tested on the Cheoncheon catchment, upstream of the Yongdam dam using hydrological data for three extreme flood events due to typhoons. The model provided acceptable simulation results with respect to both discharge and sediment discharge even though the simulated sedigraphs were underestimated, compared to observations. The spatial distribution of erosion and deposition demonstrated that eroded sediment loads were deposited in the cells along the channel network, which have a short overland flow length and a gentle local slope while the erosion rate increased as rainfall became larger. Additionally, spatially heterogeneous rainfall intensity, dependant on Thiessen polygons, led to spatially-distinct erosion and deposition patterns.

Parameter Estimation and Analysis of Deepwater Design Wave in Marginal Seas around Korea (한국 연안 심해 설계파의 매개변수 추정 및 분석)

  • Kim, Jeong-Dae;Jeong, Shin-Taek;Cho, Hong-Yeon;Oh, Nam-Sun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.313-319
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    • 2007
  • Long term wave climate of both extreme and operational wave height is essential for planning and designing coastal structures. Since the availability of the field wave data for the waters around Korean peninsula is limited to provide a reliable wave statistics, the wave climate information has been generated by means of long-term wave hindcasting using available meteorological data. In this paper, a set of deep water wave data obtained from KORDI(2003) were analyzed for extreme wave heights. These wave data at 67 stations off the Korean coast from 1979 to 1998 were arranged in the 16 directions. The probability distributions considered in this research were the FT-I and Weibull distribution. For each of these distributions, the method proposed by Goda(2004) was applied to estimate the parameters. For judgment of best fitting, MIR criterion proposed by Goda and Gobune(1990) was used. FT-I distribution which best fits to the 886 data, while Weibull(k=0.75) 81 data, Weibull(k=1.00) 105 data.

Comparison of Observed Wave Height and Wave Image of Sok-cho Site (속초연안지점의 관측파고와 파영상자료의 비교)

  • Jang, Bok-Jin;Yeo, Woon-Kwang;Lee, Jong-Kook;Park, Kwang-Soon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.329-335
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    • 2007
  • The eye measurement to observe the sea surface condition and estimate the wave height has been used in the open sea or the ship. The experts in the eye estimation can measure the wave height very accurately. The Beaufort wind scale is most widely used as a standard index of the eye measurement. However, more definite reference data such as the representative images by each wave heights must be necessary because the appearances and explanations in the Beaufort wind scale are not enough to understand the sea surface condition far the researcher and the public. The modern field data acquisition technique has been developed to measure wave heights, ocean weather data and even images of the sea surface in real-time. In this study, the wireless field image transmitting system for wave heights and images is installed in the real-time ocean measurement system of Chodo light tower near Sokcho city in South Korea. The wave heights and surface images acquired from the real time system in the field are compared with explanations of the Beaufort wind scale. The wave heights and images measured with the precision ultrasonic wave sensor and the scientific sea surface image transmitting system should be helpful to obtain more precise and definite information than the data from the Beaufort wind scale.

Groundwater Systems in Seoul Area : Analysis of Hydraulic Properties (서울지역 지하수 시스템 조사 : 수리적 특성 분석)

  • 김윤영;이강근;성익환
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.51-73
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    • 1998
  • Hydrogeological systems in a metrnpolitan area can be understood by analyzing the groundwater disturbing factors such as constructions and land applications, the groundwater usage for domestic and industrial purposes, and the groundwater pumpage to lower the groundwater level for the structural safety of subway and underground facilities. This study is part of the study performed to understand the groundwater system in the Seoul area and it is focusing on the hydraulic properties. Groundwater well inventory, barometric efficiency measurements, pumping and slug tests, and long-term groundwater monitoring have been perfonrmed during the last 2 years. The relations between Han River and the groundwater around the river also have been observed. These observations and test data, together with the information on soil distribution, geology, and logging data are used to construct a database and GIS(Geographic Information System) presentation system using ARC/INFO. Barometric efficiencies appeared to have no special trends associated with well depths, which maeans that the degree of confinement of the crystaline rock aquifer of the Seoul area is distributed locally depending on the developrnent of fractures. Hydraulic conductivities exponentialiy decrease with well depth. The stage of Han River fluctuates according to the tidal movement of nearby seawater but the tidal effects attenuate due to the underwater dams. Groundwater levels in the Seoul area seem to have declined for the last two years,but it is not certain that the declination represents the long-term trend.

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Combining Ability Analysis and Selection Effectiveness for Tolerance to Cold-Induced Sterility in Rice (벼 장해형 내냉성의 조합능력검정과 선발효과)

  • Huhn Pal, Moon;J. Neil, Rutger
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.412-419
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    • 1988
  • Cold-induced sterility is a problem of rice (Oryza sativa L.) production in temperate regions and high elevation tropics. The present study was conducted to measure combining ability, determine character associations. and to evaluate effectiveness of F$_2$selection for tolerance to this type of cold injury. The F$_1$, F$_2$, F$_3$ and reciprocal backcross F$_1$ populations of a nine-parent diallel were grown at Davis, California. a relatively cool location for rice. Additive genetic variance was predominant but some non -additive genetic variance existed for cold tolerance. Good general combining ability (GCA) was generally associated with the cold tolerant parents, 'M-201', and 'L-201', and poor GCA with the most susceptible parent. 7703008. Sterility was positively correlated with late heading. negatively with mature plant height. and negatively with spikelet number. Of the three agronomic characters, heading date had the greatest influence on sterility. Selection of F$_2$'s in seven crosses involving M-101, the most cold-tolerant parent, was effective for increasing cold tolerance. Realized heritability estimates for cold tolerance averaged 0.53, and observed selection response for cold-induced sterility averaged -9.4 percentage points.

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The Relationship between the Time of Breeding Migration of the Gori Salamander (Hynobius yangi) and Climate Factors (고리도롱뇽의 번식이주 시기와 기후요소와의 관계)

  • Kim, Ja-Kyoung;Park, Daesik;Lee, Heon-Ju;Jeong, Soo-Min;Kim, Il-Hun
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.194-201
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    • 2014
  • To elucidate which climate factors and what periods affect the time of breeding migration of Gori salamanders (Hynobius yangi), we have investigated relationships between the 5-years breeding monitoring data from 2006 to 2010 which had obtained in both natural and translocated breeding sites at Bongdae mountain, Gijang-gun, Busan-si and the matched climate data obtained from the weather station, approximately 25 km apart from the sites. Mean average and mean lowest temperatures during one month before the first breeding migration were related with the time of first female migration in the translocated site. Mean temperature variation and mean precipitation during 60~120 days before the first breeding migration affected the time of 30% male appearance at the natural site and the time of 30% female appearance at both natural and translocated sites. Climate factors were more closely related with female appearance than male and at the translocated site than at the natural site. Our results show that changes in mean temperature variation and mean precipitation rather than mean average temperature might more significantly affect the breeding migration of salamanders, female breeding migration is more closely related with climate factors, and the salamanders translocated could be more affected by climate changes than those in natural populations.