• Asia-pacific Journal of Multimedia Services Convergent with Art, Humanities, and Sociology
• /
• v.6 no.12
• /
• pp.469-481
• /
• 2016

Freight car accidents occur frequently and have a high mortality. In this reason, freight can insurance fee has been raised drastically. But speeding and overloading of trucks are still not decreased. We need to consider a measure about voluntary safe driving of truck drivers. We select UBI(Usage-Based insurance) as a measure for safe driving of truck drivers. UBI is a car insurance system and insurance fee is flexible. If vehicle drivers drive safely, insurance fee is discounted. The other way, if vehicle drivers drive dangerously, insurance fee is increased. In now, very high insurance fee for truck drivers, UBI is a effective way for leading a truck driver to safe driving. The most important thing in UBI is to evaluate truck driver rationally and accurately. In this paper, we select the reasons of truck accidents and develop driving evaluation model from multiple regression analysis and correlation analysis with accident reasons and truck accidents.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.26 no.1A
• /
• pp.75-89
• /
• 2006

This paper presents a practical and realistic Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) optimum design methodology of steel bridges considering time effect of bridge reliability under environmental stressors such as corrosion and heavy truck traffics. The LCC functions considered in the LCC optimization consist of initial cost, expected life-cycle maintenance cost and expected life-cycle rehabilitation costs including repair/replacement costs, loss of contents or fatality and injury losses, road user costs, and indirect socio-economic losses. For the assessment of the life-cycle rehabilitation costs, the annual probability of failure which depends upon the prior and updated load and resistance histories should be accounted for. For the purpose, Nowak live load model and a modified corrosion propagation model considering corrosion initiation, corrosion rate, and repainting effect are adopted in this study. The proposed methodology is applied to the LCC optimum design problem of an actual steel box girder bridge with 3 continuous spans (40 m+50 m+40 m=130 m), and various sensitivity analyses of types of steel, local corrosion environments, average daily traffic volume, and discount rates are performed to investigate the effects of various design parameters and conditions on the LCC-effectiveness. From the numerical investigation, it has been observed that local corrosion environments and the number of truck traffics significantly influence the LCC-effective optimum design of steel bridges, and thus realized that these conditions should be considered as crucial parameters for the optimum LCC-effective design.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
• /
• v.21 no.2
• /
• pp.91-102
• /
• 2015

한국은 2050년까지 주요 선진국 중에서 고령화가 가장 심각한 사회로 전환되게 될 것으로 예상된다. 기대여명의 증가와 저 출산은 고령화를 더욱 악화시키며, 이는 심각한 사회문제로 발전하게 될 것이다. 이와 같은 문제를 해결하기 위해 한국정부는 2008년에 도시지역에는 주택연금제도를 도입하였으며, 2011년에는 세계 최초로 농촌지역을 대상으로 농지연금제도를 도입하였다. 그렇지만 이와 같은 제도는 설계 당시부터 복지상품이라기 보다는 장기적으로 손실과 수익의 균형에 초점을 둔 금융상품으로 개발되어 실질적으로 노인들에게 크게 인기를 얻지 못하였다. 따라서 본 연구는 농지연금제도를 활성화시켜, 농촌노인들에게 보다 더 많은 혜택을 주기 위해 지역 토지시장을 감안하여 지역별 농지가격상승률을 예측하고 연금액을 산출하였다. 또, 지금까지 사용한 년 혹은 분기별 감정가 대신에 월별, 지역별 실거래 가격을 모형에 적용하여 지역토지시장, 고령화 수준 등 지역 여건에 부합하는 연금액을 산출하였다. 할인율자료도 가장 안정적인 3년 만기 국고채 수익률을 활용하여 미래농지가격을 예측하고, 이를 유동화하여 월 생활자금으로 지급되도록 하였다. 특히 농지규모가 가장 많고, 고령화 정도가 심각하여 농지연금의 잠재적 수요가 가장 높을 것으로 예상되는 경상북도와 전라남도를 사례지역으로 선정하고, 이를 전국평균과 비교하여 지역적인 차이도 함께 분석하였다. 이를 위해 농지가격 및 이자율 시계열 자료의 안정성을 검정하고, 장기농지가격을 예측하였다. 이를 활용하여 경북, 전남, 전국의 노인들의 월평균 지급액을 추정하였다. 분석결과 정책의 잠재적 수요가 가장 높은 두 지역이 가장 낮은 금액이 지급되는 것으로 추정되어 이는 또 다른 지역불균형을 초래할 수 있는 것으로 평가되었다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.28 no.2
• /
• pp.7-19
• /
• 2010

Users of metropolitan railroad is increased continuously because of its various advantage such as comfortableness, convenience and punctuality. Thus, several local government including Seoul considered new installation or extension of railroads and four railroad operators maintain seventeen lines at present. After public transportation reforms in 2004 and integrated discount fare system in 2007, public transportation become more convenient in many aspects. However, these trials gives much more complex allocating problems of revenues among public transportation operators. In this paper, we deal with revenue allocating problems among public transportation operators after integrated discount fare system in 2007. Specifically, this study focuses on allocating revenues to metropolitan railroad operators by using RF card data. This research roughly proposes the methodology of O/D extraction from RF card data, generalized cost estimation and allocating revenue algorithm. We use RF card data in order to draw out exact individual O/D data and try to compare our results with those of Korea Smart Card Company. In generalized cost estimation, survey study about transfer factors is conducted for accurate estimation of generalized cost function. Lastly, new allocating revenue algorithm using k-path and non-dominated path concept is suggested. It is expected that case study is also performed with real revenues and O/D data in order to check up the application. Preposed methodology in this research can contribute to solve present and future revenue allocating issues according to the introduction of LRT and private railroad.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.38 no.5
• /
• pp.703-711
• /
• 2018

Recently, as various metro lines have been constructed and connected to other lines the rate of utilization has also been increased. However, the existing fare policy which the government does still stick to causes not only inappropriate action to the demand pattern but aggravation of the profit of the operation company. This study reviewed rail fare policy of major countries such as Japan and U.K etc. to improve the rationality of fare policy in Korea. In order to systematical analysis of fare policy, such viewpoints as of fare decision method, the card fare discounting system, the structure of fare, and the government subsidy policy were reviewed. Based on the results from the review, various problems and improvement plans were drawn. Through this study, appropriate fare systems to urban railway users could be given to improve the chronic deficit problem of urban railway operators.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.34 no.5
• /
• pp.421-436
• /
• 2016

Public-Private-Partnerships tend to be committed high project development cost and recover the cost through future revenue during the operation period. In general, long-term concession can bring on more revenue to private investors, but short-term concession less revenue due to the short recovering opportunities. The concession period is usually determined by government in advance or by the private sectors's proposal although it is a very crucial factor for the PPPs. Accurate traffic forecasting should be most important in planing and evaluating the operation period in that the forecasted traffic determines the project revenue with user fees in PPPs. In this regards, governments and the private investors are required to consider the traffic forecast risk when determining concession period. This study proposed a model for the optimal concession period in the PPPs transportation projects. Monte Carlo simulation was performed to find out the optimal concession period while traffic forecast uncertainty is considered as a project risk under the expected return of the private sector. The simulation results showed that the optimal concession periods are 17 years and 21 years at 5.5% and 7% discount level, respectively. This study result can be applied for the private investors and/or any other concerned decision makers for PPPs projects to set up a more resonable concession period.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
• /
• v.35 no.1
• /
• pp.85-100
• /
• 2008

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) funded collaborative project on The Economic Feasibility Analysis of Crop Cultivation Practice Project in Pirganj and Kurigram Districts in Bangladesh will started during 2008-2012, for 4 years with total project cost of US$ 571,270. The project will be implemented in 6 villages; has 1,097 hectares areas which is divided into 948 hectares of agricultural land, 52 hectares of forest land and 345 hectares of other land, covered 1,059 households equal to 5,305 persons in Pirganj and Kurigram districts The project has proposed to be implemented in joint collaboration by Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC), Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI) and Rangpur Dinajpur Rural Service (RDRS) Bangladesh with full participation of the farmers' groups of respective project site. The specific objectives of the project are: (1) to estimate the productivity of paddy, wheat, maize, tobacco and sugarcane (2) to determine the cost of production and returns to the above mentioned crops (3) to study the interrelationship between inputs and output of the above mentioned crops and (4) to examine the resource utilization patterns at farm level. In this project analysis, the net incremental profit is US$33,028. The expected incremental project benefit and incremented production cost are estimated as US$ 219,959 and US$ 186,931 respectively. The financial decision making criteria would be followed in this crop cultivation practice project. After the project implementation, the expected project benefits are assumed to be continued for 15 years. The benefit cost ratio (B/C) of the project is estimated at 1.077 (table 11) when using discount rate of 10% as an opportunity cost of capital in Bangladesh. FIRR of project is estimated at 26.15% which is bigger than the opportunity cost by more than double. So this project is financially feasible and acceptable. Therefore, this project should be extended to other areas to increase the farm income and economic growth of marginal poor farmers in Bangladesh.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.13 no.4
• /
• pp.735-761
• /
• 2004

As a possible alternative to Traditional Discounted Cash Flow Method, "Option Pricing Model" has drawn academic attentions for the last a few decades. However, it has failed to replace traditional DCF method practically due to its mathematical complexity. This paper introduces an option pricing valuation model specifically adjusted for the natural resource development projects. We add market information and industry-specific features into the model so that the model remains objective as well as realistic after the adjustment. The following two features of natural resource development projects take central parts in model construction; product price is a unique source of cash flow's uncertainty, and the projects have cost structure from capital-intense industry, in which initial capital cost takes most part of total cost during the projects. To improve the adaptability of Option Pricing Model specifically to the natural resource development projects, we use Two-Factor Model and Long-term Asset Model for the analysis. Although the model introduced in this paper is still simple and reflects limited reality, we expect an improvement in applicability of option pricing method for the evaluation of natural resource development projects can be made through the process taken in this paper.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.23 no.1
• /
• pp.23-46
• /
• 2017

Although there have been cases of evaluating the value of specific companies or projects which have centralized on developed countries in North America and Europe from the early 2000s, the system and methodology for estimating the economic value of individual technologies or patents has been activated on and on. Of course, there exist several online systems that qualitatively evaluate the technology's grade or the patent rating of the technology to be evaluated, as in 'KTRS' of the KIBO and 'SMART 3.1' of the Korea Invention Promotion Association. However, a web-based technology valuation system, referred to as 'STAR-Value system' that calculates the quantitative values of the subject technology for various purposes such as business feasibility analysis, investment attraction, tax/litigation, etc., has been officially opened and recently spreading. In this study, we introduce the type of methodology and evaluation model, reference information supporting these theories, and how database associated are utilized, focusing various modules and frameworks embedded in STAR-Value system. In particular, there are six valuation methods, including the discounted cash flow method (DCF), which is a representative one based on the income approach that anticipates future economic income to be valued at present, and the relief-from-royalty method, which calculates the present value of royalties' where we consider the contribution of the subject technology towards the business value created as the royalty rate. We look at how models and related support information (technology life, corporate (business) financial information, discount rate, industrial technology factors, etc.) can be used and linked in a intelligent manner. Based on the classification of information such as International Patent Classification (IPC) or Korea Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) for technology to be evaluated, the STAR-Value system automatically returns meta data such as technology cycle time (TCT), sales growth rate and profitability data of similar company or industry sector, weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indices of industrial technology factors, etc., and apply adjustment factors to them, so that the result of technology value calculation has high reliability and objectivity. Furthermore, if the information on the potential market size of the target technology and the market share of the commercialization subject refers to data-driven information, or if the estimated value range of similar technologies by industry sector is provided from the evaluation cases which are already completed and accumulated in database, the STAR-Value is anticipated that it will enable to present highly accurate value range in real time by intelligently linking various support modules. Including the explanation of the various valuation models and relevant primary variables as presented in this paper, the STAR-Value system intends to utilize more systematically and in a data-driven way by supporting the optimal model selection guideline module, intelligent technology value range reasoning module, and similar company selection based market share prediction module, etc. In addition, the research on the development and intelligence of the web-based STAR-Value system is significant in that it widely spread the web-based system that can be used in the validation and application to practices of the theoretical feasibility of the technology valuation field, and it is expected that it could be utilized in various fields of technology commercialization.

• Journal of Distribution Research
• /
• v.5 no.2
• /
• pp.49-68
• /
• 2001

In this chapter, we summarize the results on the optimal location selection and present limitation and direction of research. In order to reach the objective, this study selected and tested the interaction model which obtains the value of co-ordinates on location selection through the optimization technique. This study used the original variables in the model, but the results indicated that there is difference in reality. In order to overcome this difference, this study peformed market survey and found the new variables (first data such as price, quality and assortment of goods, and the second data such as aggregate area, and area of shop, and the number of cars in the parking lot). Then this study determined an optimal variable by empirical analysis which compares an actual value of market share in 1988 with the market share yielded in the model. However, this study found the market share in each variables does not reflect a reality due to an assumption of λ-value in the model. In order to improve this, this study performed a sensitivity analysis which adds the λ value from 1.0 to 2.9 marginally. The analyzed result indicated the highest significance with the market share ratio in 1998 at λ of 1.0. Applying the weighted value to a variable from each of the first data and second data yielded the results that more variables from the first data coincided with the realistic rank on sales. Although this study have some limits and improvements, if a marketer uses this extended model, more significant results will be produced.