• Title/Summary/Keyword: 기능계량경제모형

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Goodwin's Growth Cycle Model and Functional Income Distribution in the Information Age of Korea: 1981~2016 (정보화 시대 한국의 기능적 소득분배와 Goodwin 성장순환모형: 1981~2016)

  • Jeong, Seungpil;Kwon, Oh-Bum
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.63-76
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    • 2020
  • In the 21st century, informatization is playing a huge role in people's lives. Korea is experiencing the tremendous changes in social structure and lifestyle caused by informatization. This paper focuses on economic phenomena rather than discussion on social structure due to informatization. We check whether the Goodwin model, which can comprehensively express economic growth, economic cycle, and income distribution, is suitable for the Korean economy in the information age. This model is simulated by selecting a quantitative economic methodology that estimates coefficients from time series data of the Korean economy. The simulation results confirmed that the Goodwin model is suitable for analyzing functional income distribution in Korea.

Analysis of Functional Autocorrelation and Development of Functional Econometric Model through Urban Interactions - Focusing on Economic Growth of Small and Medium Sized Cities - (도시 상호작용에 따른 기능적 자기상관분석 및 기능계량경제모형 개발 - 중소도시의 경제성장을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Dohyeong;Woo, Myungje
    • Journal of Korea Planning Association
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.63-74
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    • 2019
  • Korean government has implemented policies to strengthen the competitiveness of small and medium sized cities. However, since it is often difficult to enhance the competitiveness through individual projects, many local governments in metropolitan areas are working together to pursue local growth. On the other hand, small and medium sized cities that are not included in metropolitan areas due to their spatial limitations have difficulties in implementing effective growth policies. Given this background, the purpose of this study is to identify the functional correlation based on urban interactions and develop functional econometric model for the economic growth of small and medium sized cities. This study uses spatial econometrics models and functional weight matrix to identify the effects of functional networks on small and medium sized cities. The results show the effect of functional networks on the growth of small and medium sized cities and provide policy implications for regional spatial planning that addresses effective management of small and medium sized cities.

Long-Term Oil Prices Forecasting System (중장기 유가예측 시스템)

  • 김은경;이원형;배진희;김상환
    • Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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    • 2000.04b
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    • pp.283-285
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    • 2000
  • 본 논문에서는 계량경제학적인 유가예측 모형과 전문가시스템을 결합한 중장기 유가예측 시스템을 설계 및 구현하였다. 즉, 계량 데이터를 기초로 유가예측 모형을 구성하고, 산유국 동향과 OPEC 정책 등과 같은 비계량적인 요인에 대한 실무자의 경험적인 지식은 지식베이스로 구축함으로써, 유가예측과 관련된 다양한 요인들을 폭넓게 고려할 수 있는 통합된 시스템을 개발하였다. 유가예측 모형으로는 수급과 대표 유종의 유가예측을 위한 동태적 선형연립 모형과 유종간 가격차를 예측하기 위한 Fully Modified 공적분 회귀분석 모형을 구성하였으며, 유가예측 모형에서 반영하기 어려운 산유국 동향, OPEC 정책, 선물시장 동향 등은 실무자의 경험적인 지식을 바탕으로 시스템 예측변수로 설정하여 유가예측에 반영되도록 지식베이스를 구축하였다. 또한, 본 시스템은 유가예측 이외에 석유 수급을 전망하고, 유가 및 수급과 관련된 관련 다양한 정보를 제공하고 관리하는 기능을 제공한다.

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The Study on Quantifying and Evaluating for the Functions of Flood Control and Fostering Water Resources in Agriculture (농업의 홍수조절기능과 수자원함양기능 계량화 및 가치평가에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Myung-Chul;Kang, Ki-Kyung;Hyun, Byung-Geun;Yun, Hong-Bae;Eom, Ki-Cheol
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 2008
  • In order to share the understanding agricultural multifunctionality with people, we carried out quantification and monetary evaluation for controlling flood and fostering water resources function in paddy and upland farming in Korea. The amount of water controlling flood and fostering water resources function in paddy farming was much greater than that in upland. The quantification of flood control function could be estimated by sum of the height of dike and water infiltrated during the flooding periods in paddy farming, and water excepting runoff water from precipitation at flooding time in upland farming. As results of estimation of flood control function, the amounts of water controlling flood have been evaluated as $294mm\;year^{-1}$ in paddy farming and $72.6mm\;year^{-1}$ upland farming, and was calculated 3.71 billion MT on a nation basis in 2006. When it was carried out monetary estimation as the cost of dam construction and the depreciation expense by using replacement cost method, flood control functions in paddy and upland were evaluated as 44,338.9 and 7,221.5 billion won, respectively. Comparing with previous reports, monetary value was analyzed much to increase because of rising price cost recently. Fostering water resource functions were also quantified in paddy and upland farming as the amount of water keeping and infiltrating water during the cultivation. In the basis of estimation model, it was showed that paddy and upland farming had been estimated to have $414.28mm\;year^{-1}$, $18.7mm\;year^{-1}$, respectively. They were also calculated to 4.49 and 0.137 billion MT on a nation basis in 2006, respectively. The economic values of fostering water resources function in paddy and upland farming were also estimated to 1,769.4 and 52.8 billion won, respectively, as replacing the amount of water to the cost of drinking water in 2006. There were differences by much to the amounts of controlling flood function and fostering water resource between paddy and upland farming. It means that paddy farming more play an important role in environment than upland farming in Korea.

A STUDY ON THE APPLICATION OF THE COMPREHENSIVE LAND USE/TRANSPORTATION MODELS IN SEOUL CAPITAL REGION (서울수도권에 있어서의 토지이용 및 교통 통합모델 응용에 관한연구)

  • 윤정섭
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.3-14
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    • 1994
  • The external diseconomy has been accelerated by the megaspatial structure of metropolis such as Seoul Capital Region(below SCR), Korea in which the more than 10 million populations inhabit. The main course for It could be elaborated by the overconcentration of the urban and regional function of various kinds. The study is performed to analyze quantitatively the status quo of the region as described above and proceed into forecasting the future population trend, the land use at location for the increment of regional population and to set the location of new towns in Seoul Capital Region System projected by the methods in computer algorithm of descriptive models such as the simple and multiple regress ion analysis models, the gravity model and the facility location on a plane model analysis. The goal and object ive of the metropolitan planning are to decentralize the regional growth management to the optimum degree, which will not hinder the economic growth of the region, but the result of the study is that we can not discourage the functional concentration of Seoul Capital Region and, we have to provide the region with the appropriate new towns.

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Evaluation of Function of Upland Farming for Preventing Flood and Fostering Water Resources (밭농사의 수자원 함양과 홍수조절 기능에 대한 계량화 평가)

  • Hyun, Byung-Keun;Kim, Moo-Sung;Eom, Ki-Cheol;Kang, Ki-Kyung;Yun, Hong-Bae;Seo, Myung-Cheol
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.163-179
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    • 2003
  • Multifunctionality of agriculture which is not traded on the market now has been an important international issue in that it environmental and public benefits. We carried out to modify and to update the function of upland farming on flood prevention and fostering water resources. Economic values of environmental benefits were evaluated by replacement cost methods. Models to evaluate the function of preventing flood were selected as: (1)precipitation(flood-inducing) - runoff(A), (2) soil depth ${\times}$ soil air phase, (3) precipitation (flood-inducing) - runoff(B), (4) soil depth ${\times}$ effective porosity of soil. Models to estimate the function of fostering water resources were (1) saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) ${\times}$ duration of saturation(days) ${\times}$ (1-ratio of water flow directly into river), (2) precipitation ${\times}$ ratio of water fostered by rain resources ${\times}$ (area of upland/total land area), and (3) soil water retention quantity(under standing crop or tree) - SWRQ(in bare soil). Function of preventing flood was $883Mg\;ha^{-1}$ of water per year and 645 million Mg for the whole upland area. Function of fostering water resources was $94.1Mg\;ha^{-1}$ of water per year and 69 million Mg for the whole upland area. The value of flood-preventing function evaluated by replacement cost methods was estimated 1,428 billion won per year as compared to the cost for dam construction. The value of water resource fostering were estimated 8.6 billion won in the price of living water.

A Study on Key Factors Affecting Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of Korean (지역내총생산에 영향을 미치는 주요 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn, Young Gyun
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.47-57
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    • 2019
  • Daegu Metropolitan City has been continuously carrying out core functions of Yeongnam region, and especially plays a role as export base of textile and chemical products in Korea. Also Daegu Metropolitan City has contributed greatly to the expansion of Korea's import and export trade and the growth of the national economy. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of major factors affecting GRDP in Daegu Metropolitan City through regression analysis. For this purpose, this study uses the Vector Error Correction Model(VECM) to estimate the long-run equilibrium function that affects the GRDP in Daegu Metropolitan City. This study is meaningful in that it uses the statistics related to Daegu provided by Province of Gyeongsangbuk-do and explains the dynamic characteristics of major factors affecting the GRDP in Daegu.

Earnings Variability and Capital Market Opening (자본시장 개방과 소득 변동성)

  • Kim, Dae Il
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.1-39
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    • 2006
  • This paper documents the increase in earnings variability (or earnings risk) during the 1990s in Korea, and investigates whether it can be accounted for by capital market opening. The variances of transitory and permanent innovations in earnings are estimated from repeated cross-section data using a simple econometric framework. The increasing time-series pattern of earnings risk among men follows the increased foreign capital presence reasonably well, but the supporting cross-sectional evidence for a causal relationship between the two is weak. However, foreign direct investment (FDI) is found to have had some non-neutral effects on workers of varying skills in such a way that transitory earnings risk of less-skilled workers relatively increased with FDI. To the extent that transitory innovations are not fully insured, this widening effect of FDI on earnings risk gap may have contributed to widening welfare gap between skilled and unskilled workers in Korea, at least in terms of "risks."

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Dynamic Changes of Urban Spatial Structure in Seoul: Focusing on a Relative Office Price Gradient (오피스 가격경사계수를 이용한 서울시 도시공간구조 변화 분석)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.11-26
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    • 2021
  • With the increasing demand for office space, there have been questions on how office rent distribution produces a change in the urban spatial structure in Seoul. The purpose of this paper is to investigate a relative price gradient and to present a time-series model that can quantitatively explain the dynamic changes in the urban spatial structure. The analysis was dealt with office rent above 3,306 m2 for the past 10 years from 1Q 2010 to 4Q 2019 within Seoul. A modified repeat sales model was employed. The main findings are briefly summarized as follows. First, according to the estimates of the office price gradient in the three major urban centers of Seoul, the CBD remained at a certain level with little change, while those in the GBD and the YBD continued to increase. This result reveals that the urban form of Seoul has shifted from monocentric to polycentric. This shows that the spatial distribution of companies has gradually accelerated decentralized concentration implying that the business networks have become significant. Second, contrary to small and medium-sized office buildings that have undertaken no change in the gradient, large office buildings have seen an increase in the gradient. The relative price gradients in small and medium-sized buildings were inversely proportional among the CBD, the GBD, and the YBD, implying their heterogeneous submarkets by office rent movements. Presumably, those differences in the submarkets were attributed to investment attraction, industrial competition, and the credit and preference of tenants. The findings are consistent with the hierarchical system identified in the Seoul 2030 Plan as well as the literature about Seoul's urban form. This research claims that the proposed method, based on the modified repeat sales model, is useful in understanding temporal dynamic changes. Moreover, the findings can provide implications for urban growth strategies under rapidly changing market conditions.