• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.195-220
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• 2018

In this study, we conducted an empirical analysis of the factors that affect the change of Bitcoin Closing Price. Previous studies have focused on the security of the block chain system, the economic ripple effects caused by the cryptocurrency, legal implications and the acceptance to consumer about cryptocurrency. In various area, cryptocurrency was studied and many researcher and people including government, regardless of country, try to utilize cryptocurrency and applicate to its technology. Despite of rapid and dramatic change of cryptocurrencies' price and growth of its effects, empirical study of the factors affecting the price change of cryptocurrency was lack. There were only a few limited studies, business reports and short working paper. Therefore, it is necessary to determine what factors effect on the change of closing Bitcoin price. For analysis, hypotheses were constructed from three dimensions of consumer, industry, and macroeconomics for analysis, and time series data were collected for variables of each dimension. Consumer variables consist of search traffic of Bitcoin, search traffic of bitcoin ban, search traffic of ransomware and search traffic of war. Industry variables were composed GPU vendors' stock price and memory vendors' stock price. Macro-economy variables were contemplated such as U.S. dollar index futures, FOMC policy interest rates, WTI crude oil price. Using above variables, we did times series regression analysis to find relationship between those variables and change of Bitcoin Closing Price. Before the regression analysis to confirm the relationship between change of Bitcoin Closing Price and the other variables, we performed the Unit-root test to verifying the stationary of time series data to avoid spurious regression. Then, using a stationary data, we did the regression analysis. As a result of the analysis, we found that the change of Bitcoin Closing Price has negative effects with search traffic of 'Bitcoin Ban' and US dollar index futures, while change of GPU vendors' stock price and change of WTI crude oil price showed positive effects. In case of 'Bitcoin Ban', it is directly determining the maintenance or abolition of Bitcoin trade, that's why consumer reacted sensitively and effected on change of Bitcoin Closing Price. GPU is raw material of Bitcoin mining. Generally, increasing of companies' stock price means the growth of the sales of those companies' products and services. GPU's demands increases are indirectly reflected to the GPU vendors' stock price. Making an interpretation, a rise in prices of GPU has put a crimp on the mining of Bitcoin. Consequently, GPU vendors' stock price effects on change of Bitcoin Closing Price. And we confirmed U.S. dollar index futures moved in the opposite direction with change of Bitcoin Closing Price. It moved like Gold. Gold was considered as a safe asset to consumers and it means consumer think that Bitcoin is a safe asset. On the other hand, WTI oil price went Bitcoin Closing Price's way. It implies that Bitcoin are regarded to investment asset like raw materials market's product. The variables that were not significant in the analysis were search traffic of bitcoin, search traffic of ransomware, search traffic of war, memory vendor's stock price, FOMC policy interest rates. In search traffic of bitcoin, we judged that interest in Bitcoin did not lead to purchase of Bitcoin. It means search traffic of Bitcoin didn't reflect all of Bitcoin's demand. So, it implies there are some factors that regulate and mediate the Bitcoin purchase. In search traffic of ransomware, it is hard to say concern of ransomware determined the whole Bitcoin demand. Because only a few people damaged by ransomware and the percentage of hackers requiring Bitcoins was low. Also, its information security problem is events not continuous issues. Search traffic of war was not significant. Like stock market, generally it has negative in relation to war, but exceptional case like Gulf war, it moves stakeholders' profits and environment. We think that this is the same case. In memory vendor stock price, this is because memory vendors' flagship products were not VRAM which is essential for Bitcoin supply. In FOMC policy interest rates, when the interest rate is low, the surplus capital is invested in securities such as stocks. But Bitcoin' price fluctuation was large so it is not recognized as an attractive commodity to the consumers. In addition, unlike the stock market, Bitcoin doesn't have any safety policy such as Circuit breakers and Sidecar. Through this study, we verified what factors effect on change of Bitcoin Closing Price, and interpreted why such change happened. In addition, establishing the characteristics of Bitcoin as a safe asset and investment asset, we provide a guide how consumer, financial institution and government organization approach to the cryptocurrency. Moreover, corroborating the factors affecting change of Bitcoin Closing Price, researcher will get some clue and qualification which factors have to be considered in hereafter cryptocurrency study.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.119-132
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• 2014

This study analyzed the failure prediction model of the firms listed on the KOSDAQ by considering whether there are embezzlement, malpractice and the largest shareholder changes or not. This study composed a total of 166 firms by using two-paired sampling method. For sample of failed firm, 83 manufacturing firms which delisted on KOSDAQ market for 4 years from 2009 to 2012 are selected. For sample of normal firm, 83 firms (with same item or same business as failed firm) that are listed on KOSDAQ market and perform normal business activities during the same period (from 2009 to 2012) are selected. This study selected 80 financial ratios for 5 years immediately preceding from delisting of sample firm above and conducted T-test to derive 19 of them which emerged for five consecutive years among significant variables and used forward selection to estimate logistic regression model. While the precedent studies only analyzed the data of three years immediately preceding the delisting, this study analyzes data of five years immediately preceding the delisting. This study is distinct from existing previous studies that it researches which significant financial characteristic influences the insolvency from the initial phase of insolvent firm with time lag and it also empirically analyzes the usefulness of data by building a firm's fail prediction model which considered embezzlement/malpractice and the largest shareholder changes as dummy variable(non-financial characteristics). The accuracy of classification of the prediction model with dummy variable appeared 95.2% in year T-1, 88.0% in year T-2, 81.3% in year T-3, 79.5% in year T-4, and 74.7% in year T-5. It increased as year of delisting approaches and showed generally higher the accuracy of classification than the results of existing previous studies. This study expects to reduce the damage of not only the firm but also investors, financial institutions and other stakeholders by finding the firm with high potential to fail in advance.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.153-172
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• 1990

The present paper investigates the potential value of strategic antitrust policy in an oligopolistic international market. The market is characterized by a non-cooperative Cournot-Nash equilibrium and by asymmetry in costs among firms in the world market. The model is useful for two reasons. First, it is important in the context of policy-making to examine the conditions under which it may be beneficial to relax antitrust law to enhance competitiveness. Second, the explicit derivation of the level of cost-saving required for a gain in total domestic surplus provides an empirical rule for excluding industries that do not satisfy the requirements for a socially beneficial antitrust exemption. Results of the analysis include a criterion that tells how the cost-saving and concentration effects of a merger offset each other. The criterion is derived from fairly general assumptions on demand functions and is simple enough to be applied as a part of the merger guidelines. Another interesting policy implication of our analysis is that promoting mergers would not be a beneficial strategy in a net importing industry where cost-saving opportunities are thin. Cost-saving domestic mergers are more likely to increase national welfare in exporting industries. The best candidate industries for application of strategic antitrust policy are those with the following characteristics: (i) a large potential for efficiency enhancement; (ii) high market concentration at the world but not the domestic level; (iii) a high ratio of exports to imports. Recently, many policymakers and economists in Korea have also come to believe that the appropriate antitrust policy in an era of increased foreign competition may actually be to encourage rather than to prohibit domestic mergers. The Industry Development Act of 1986 and the proposed bill for Mergers and Conversions in the Financial Industry of 1990 reflect this changing perspective on antitrust policy. Antitrust laws may burden domestic firms in the sense that they have a more constrained strategy set. Expenditures to avoid antitrust attacks could also increase costs for domestic firms. But there is no clear evidence that the impact of antitrust policy is significant enough to harm the competitiveness of domestic firms. As a matter of fact, it is necessary for domestic financial institutions to become large in scale in this era of globalization. However, the absence of empirical evidence for efficiency enhancement from mergers suggests caution in the relaxation of antitrust standards.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.121-139
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• 2014

Predicting corporate failure has been an important topic in accounting and finance. The costs associated with bankruptcy are high, so the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction is greatly important for financial institutions. Lots of researchers have dealt with the topic associated with bankruptcy prediction in the past three decades. The current research attempts to use ensemble models for improving the performance of bankruptcy prediction. Ensemble classification is to combine individually trained classifiers in order to gain more accurate prediction than individual models. Ensemble techniques are shown to be very useful for improving the generalization ability of the classifier. Bagging is the most commonly used methods for constructing ensemble classifiers. In bagging, the different training data subsets are randomly drawn with replacement from the original training dataset. Base classifiers are trained on the different bootstrap samples. Instance selection is to select critical instances while deleting and removing irrelevant and harmful instances from the original set. Instance selection and bagging are quite well known in data mining. However, few studies have dealt with the integration of instance selection and bagging. This study proposes an improved bagging ensemble based on instance selection using genetic algorithms (GA) for improving the performance of SVM. GA is an efficient optimization procedure based on the theory of natural selection and evolution. GA uses the idea of survival of the fittest by progressively accepting better solutions to the problems. GA searches by maintaining a population of solutions from which better solutions are created rather than making incremental changes to a single solution to the problem. The initial solution population is generated randomly and evolves into the next generation by genetic operators such as selection, crossover and mutation. The solutions coded by strings are evaluated by the fitness function. The proposed model consists of two phases: GA based Instance Selection and Instance based Bagging. In the first phase, GA is used to select optimal instance subset that is used as input data of bagging model. In this study, the chromosome is encoded as a form of binary string for the instance subset. In this phase, the population size was set to 100 while maximum number of generations was set to 150. We set the crossover rate and mutation rate to 0.7 and 0.1 respectively. We used the prediction accuracy of model as the fitness function of GA. SVM model is trained on training data set using the selected instance subset. The prediction accuracy of SVM model over test data set is used as fitness value in order to avoid overfitting. In the second phase, we used the optimal instance subset selected in the first phase as input data of bagging model. We used SVM model as base classifier for bagging ensemble. The majority voting scheme was used as a combining method in this study. This study applies the proposed model to the bankruptcy prediction problem using a real data set from Korean companies. The research data used in this study contains 1832 externally non-audited firms which filed for bankruptcy (916 cases) and non-bankruptcy (916 cases). Financial ratios categorized as stability, profitability, growth, activity and cash flow were investigated through literature review and basic statistical methods and we selected 8 financial ratios as the final input variables. We separated the whole data into three subsets as training, test and validation data set. In this study, we compared the proposed model with several comparative models including the simple individual SVM model, the simple bagging model and the instance selection based SVM model. The McNemar tests were used to examine whether the proposed model significantly outperforms the other models. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the other models.

• The Korean Journal of Franchise Management
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.95-110
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• 2011

As global economic conditions are getting uneasy and polarization of our economy is intensified, the economic sentiment of small businesses is still low and unstable. The collapse of worldwide banking systems due to sub prime crisis in 2007 became the catalyst that shakes financial industries in each country in the world; the most sentiment people, small businesspersons, also have hard time facing survival way out, facing a great crisis. All organizing powers including manufactures, wholesales and retails are being gradually greater in mutual relations and dependence, and unstable factors about risks are also increasing. For exterior environmental and physical risk factors which cannot make small businesses survive themselves by developing ways out are eventually increasing, those who cannot cope with these factors face a great crisis. Although the government tries hard to overcome this situation conducting many ways, the effect does not continue. It is the real state that independent business markets including overall employment and establishing business have vicious cycle that they cannot be improved, due to increase of employment centered on short-term labors which lack durability in creation of employment and decline of household income. Recently, growth shows indication of slowdown because of multinational risk factors including financial crisis in each country in Europe, the death of Kim Jung-il, relationship with North Korea, and unstability of war situation in the Middle East Asia. Experts expect that growth rate will be about 4%, and independent business that ordinary people feel is still gloomy. It's reality that there is no adequate alternative for lack of jobs, unstable employment and a means of living after retirement. Also, the fact that large companies enter the market which is narrow and in the excessive competition should be an environmental factor that makes the situation worse. The business concept, a franchise, is the part we should think about whether it is the institutional solution that can guarantee independent businessmen stable life. Major companies are frightfully entering the market today, breaking the barrier to entry and shouting of a win-win with independent businesses. It's the small businesspersons who go through painful domestic recession, cannot predict the future and manage confusing and unstable independent business. It's very important to restore the domestic economy through wisely boosting consumption as soon as possible. It's also important to lead the situation by gathering powers of the government and related organizations, agonizing, suggesting solutions, and establishing accurate directions. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to suggest ways to strengthen competitiveness of small businesspersons by examining small business support policies which are currently implemented.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.165-176
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• 2016

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of the IT resources on the work efficiency and corporate performance in Mobile Smart-Work Environment with IT convergence Technology by applying the Resource-Based View. The study has an academic meaning by empirically analyzing the effects of factors identified based on the existing study on the IT resources in Mobile Smart-Work, and practical implications to identify how the significance of the Mobile Smart-Work used as a platform of variety industries in manufacturing, logistics, service, distribution, finance, public institutions, and so on positively affects improvement of corporate efficiency and performance. The results showed that IT Infrastructure and IT skills in the Mobile Smart-work environment were found to bring positive effects on individual work efficiency, and IT skills had positive influence on team work efficiency. Also, we confirmed the individual and team work efficiency positively affect financial and market performance of business firms. Finally, we expect that business firm equipped with IT resources in the Mobile Smart-Work environment with IT convergence Technology. It can improve this work efficiency and the performance, which leads to strengthening the core competency.

• The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.43-54
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• 2016

The occurrence of cyber crime is on the rise every year, and the security control center, which should play a crucial role in monitoring and early response against the cyber attacks targeting various information systems, its importance has increased accordingly. Every endeavors to prevent cyber attacks is being attempted by information security personnel of government and financial sector's security control center, threat response Center, cyber terror response center, Cert Team, SOC(Security Operator Center) and else. The ordinary method to monitor cyber attacks consists of utilizing the security system or the network security device. It is anticipated, however, to be insufficient since this is simply one dimensional way of monitoring them based on signatures. There has been considerable improvement of the security control system and researchers also have conducted a number of studies on monitoring methods to prevent threats to security. In accordance with the environment changes from ESM to SIEM, the security control system is able to be provided with more input data as well as generate the correlation analysis which integrates the processed data, by extraction and parsing, into the potential scenarios of attack or threat. This article shows case studies how to detect the threat to security in effective ways, from the initial phase of the security control system to current SIEM circumstances. Furthermore, scenarios based security control systems rather than simple monitoring is introduced, and finally methods of producing the correlation analysis and its verification methods are presented. It is expected that this result contributes to the development of cyber attack monitoring system in other security centers.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.1-15
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• 2015

During global recessions, such as the 2008 financial crisis, Korean shipping companies have been undergoing a liquidity crisis that is comparably worse than other shipping companies worldwide. One of the reasons behind this repetitive vicious cycle can be the lack of ability to foresee the future by analyzing and understanding the volatile shipping market. Traditionally, in order to assimilate the shipping market, larger Korean shipping companies have been purchasing market reports published by Europe-based research companies and shipping brokers, leading to a digital divide by company size. To resolve this issue, the Maritime Exchange Information Center (MEIC) has been publishing shipping market reports that include essential shipping information such as freight rates by different routes; commodity trends for iron ore, grain, and coal; ship-building trends for new-building, second-hand, and demolition markets; as well as bunker price and port congestion. This research was conducted to analyze the effectiveness of four variables-information usefulness, market reflection, information composition, and latest information-on information satisfaction. If the information satisfaction was found to be adequate, the analysis of actual proof was used to determine if the customers would be willing to purchase MEIC's report when it is chargeable. All the four variables were found to have positive effects on information satisfaction. In particular, latest information was found to directly affect the intention to purchase. Furthermore, high information satisfaction was related to the intention to purchase.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.45-73
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• 2007

The empirical results are summarized as follows : First, In relation to effects of ownership structure on firm value, there is the non-linear relationship between major(and foreign) shareholder's holdings and firm value. So the results(the compromise hypothesis) by prior researches(Morck et al. 1988 and so forth) is supported. However Institutional shareholder's holdings do not show the significant results. Second, In relation to effects of outside directors on firm value, equally the results of prior researches(Vafeas 2000, Choi et al. 2004), the higher the ratio of outside directors in the board, the higher firm value. Also there is the non-linear relationship between outside directors ratio and firm value. Furthermore, the higher the possibility of outside directors election in the board, the higher the relationship between ownership structure and firm value. As the economic importance of KOSDAQ is more increase, the researches of KOSDAQ should be more realized.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.8-14
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• 2017

Due to the financial crisis in 2008, the world economy collapsed leading to an increase in oil prices and a decrease in freight by shipping. To overcome this crisis, major shipping companies ordered larger ships, changed their trading route and improved operating of ships to overcome deficits. In particular, low-speed navigation was much favored by many companies so that it can reduce fuel consumption. However, the long-term operation of high-speed optimized engines in low-speeds has affected the jacket cooling fresh water (J.C.F.W.) system as they fail to maintain the normal operational temperature. The temperature of J.C.F.W. system dropped leading to low temperature corrosion. As a result, when the engine is operating at minimal load the functioning of existing J.C.F.W cooler is decreased and the use of fresh water generator is substantially limited. Therefore, an improvement in the functioning of J.C.F.W. system is necessary. In this paper, in order to review the improvements required for the operation of J.C.F.W. of low-speed operating marine diesel, an experiment was conducted by comparing and analyzing the results of the main engine J.C.F.W. system of a Panamax class bulk carrier 82k and a Cape class bulk carrier 180k by installing and uninstalling the J.C.F.W. Cooler. Thus, this paper proposed an improved design of the J.C.F.W. system that is suitable for the present low-speed operation.