• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.287-307
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• 2012

We empirically examine the price discovery dynamics among the VKOSPI, the KOSPI200 spot, and the KOSPI200 futures markets. The analysis employs the vector-autoregression, Granger causality, impulse response function, and variance decomposition using both daily data from 2009. 04. 13 to 2011. 12. 30 and 1 minute data from the bull market, bear market, and the flat period. The main results are as follows; First, the lead lag relationships between KOSPI200 spot(futures) yield VKOSPI returns could not be found from the daily data analysis. But KOSPI200 spot(futures) have a predictive power for VKOSPI from 1 minute data. Especially KOSPI200 spot(futures) and VKOSPI show the bi-directional effects to each other during the return rising period Second, We chose the VAR(1) the model in daily data but adopt the VAR(3) model in the one minute data to determine the lead lag time. We know that there is predictability during the very short period Third, Spot returns and futures returns makes no difference in daily data results. According to the one minite data results, VKOSPI returns have a predictive power for KOSPI200 spot return, but have no predictive power for KOSPI200 futures return.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.585-600
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• 2012

The purpose of this study related to the liquidity impact of the housing market variables using vector auto-regressive model(VAR) and empirical analysis is to derive some policy implications. October 2003 until May 2012 using monthly data for liquidity variables mortgage rates, mortgage, financial liquidity, as the composite index and nation, Seoul, Gangnam, Gangbuk, the Apartment sales prices were analyzed. Granger Causality Test Results, mortgage rates and mortgage at a bargain price two regions had a strong causal relationship. Since the impulse response analysis, Geothermal difference there, but housing price housing price itself, the most significant ongoing positive (+) reactions were liquidity-related variables are mortgage loans is large and persistent positive (+), financial liquidity weakly positive (+), mortgage interest rates are negative (-), KOSPI, the negative (-) reacted. Liquidity and housing prices that the rise can be and Gangnam in Gangbuk is greater than the factor that housing investment was confirmed empirically. Government to consider the current economic situation, while maintaining low interest rates and liquidity of the market rather than the real estate industry must ensure that activities can be embedded and local enforcement policies should be differentiated according to the policy will be able to reap significant effect.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2004.05a
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• pp.77-97
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• 2004

In this paper we: (1) analyze the relationship among public R&D investment, private R&D investment, and GDP by employing the Granger causality test; (2) examine if there is any country-specific pattern in the relationship by testing the cases of Korea, the U.S. and Japan. We found some common results for the above countries as follows: (i) GDP causes Public R&D, not vice versa; (ii) Private R&D causes GDP; and (iii) Public R&D does not cause Private R&D. For the bivariate model of GDP and total R&D, the results show the existence of one-way causality running from total R&D to GDP for both U.S, and Japan. We also found bidirectional causal relationship between GDP and total R&D for Korea, which could be interpreted as a typical pattern for newly industrialized countries.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.257-281
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• 2004

In this paper we： (1) analyze the relationship among public R＆D investment, private R＆D investment, and GDP by employing the Clangor causality test; (2) examine if there is any country-specific pattern in the relationship by testing the cases of Korea, the U.S. and Japan. We found some common results for the above countries as follows： (i) GDP causes Public R＆D, not vice versa; (ii) Private R＆D causes GDP; and (iii) Public R＆D does not cause Private R＆D. For the bivariate model of GDP and total R＆D, the results show the existence of one-way causality running from total R＆D to GDP f3r both U.S. and Japan. We also found bidirectional causal relationship between GDP and total R＆D for Korea, which could be interpreted as a typical pattern for newly industrialized countries.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.297-311
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• 2010

The purpose of this study is to analyze the causality among GRDP, patent, investment of R &D, and researcher among 16 Metropolitan cities and provinces in Korea. Using the annual data ranged from 1998 to 2008, the causality test for time-series data such as unit roots test and Granger causality test were performed. We estimate the Panel-Var of the four variables to find out the various Granger causal relations for two groups which are classified by the patent productivity. The panel data causality results reveal that there are bidirectional causality relations among four variables for the more patent-productivity group. The patent has bi-directional effects on GRDP and R&D. The patent cause GRDP and vice versa, patent cause R&D and vice versa. Patent not only has strong direct impact on GRDP and R&D but also has affected by the increase of GRDP and R&D through the interactive feedback mechanism. However, the causality patterns are somewhat different between the more patent-productive region and the less patent-productive region. There exists one directional causality between the R&D and GRDP for the less patent-productivity group. Such result may imply that the type of regional innovation policy should be differentiated between two groups. Regional economic policy efforts should be placed on increasing the knowledge productivity and on strengthening the regional competitiveness through the regional innovative infrastructure.

• Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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• v.50 no.1
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• pp.125-141
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• 2020

This study investigated the time-series relationship between housing consumer sentiment and housing prices in the five major districts in Seoul and also analyzed the effect of the housing consumer sentiment on housing prices using Granger Causality and VEC (Vector Error Correction) models. To describe the key results, first of all, housing consumer sentiment and regional housing market prices were closely related to each other, and the consumer sentiment strongly affected the change of housing prices. Second, the housing consumer sentiment was confirmed to have a discriminatory effect on the housing prices among the districts in Seoul in the short term. Specifically, the housing price of the east southern district (ESD) was the main reason for the change in housing consumer sentiment in Seoul, and that the resulting impact was transferred to other districts. Third, it was analyzed that regions other than the ESD would increase the housing prices in the long term as the housing consumer sentiment turned positive, but that the ESD would see a steady tone. Fourth, in the case of relative influence by district, housing (apartment) price fluctuation in a district was generally found to be most affected by adjacent or competitive districts. Through these findings, this study confirmed that there is a clear causality between housing consumer sentiment and housing prices in each district of Seoul and that there is a discriminatory influence on housing consumer sentiment among the districts.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.8 no.11
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• pp.383-391
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• 2017

This study examines the relationship between sentiment of speculators and price movements in the futures markets of WTI crude oil, copper, and wheat during the period 2003~2014 using Granger causality tests. The results indicate that speculative positions overall has no predictive power for returns in each futures market. Rather, returns seem to have effects on speculators' sentiment especially during periods of both economic expansion and recovery. During a recession, meanwhile, changes of speculators' sentiment index in the WTI crude oil and copper markets provide predictive power for returns in a positive direction, suggesting that speculators' pessimistic sentiment aggravates declines in commodity prices. Since the effects of speculative positions on market prices are ambiguous, tight regulations on speculative trading are not advisable. In a bearish market, however, regulatory bodies should consider raising speculative position limits because large speculative short positions and (or) liquidation of index traders' long positions may lead steep price declines.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.65-72
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• 2017

This study analyzed causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic output (GDP) for Korea from 2001 to 2014 employing the vector error-correction model estimation by manufacturing sector. The results of unit-roots tests show that all sectoral GDP and electricity consumptions were not stationary. And cointegration tests show that processed foods, Wood Pulp Paper, electricity apparatus, Precision Medical sectors had a linear combinations in the long run between electricity consumptions and economic growth. With respect to the direction of causality, manufacturing sector has a uni-directional running from economic output (GDP) to electricity consumption in short term. The results of study show that sectoral causal relation were different each other in short term and long term. These findings imply that electricity demand management policy focusing on efficiency improvement is necessary to minimize negative impacts on economic growth and to adopt suitable structural policies can induce energy conservation.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.682-691
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• 2016

The purpose of this study is to explore the causal and precedence relationships between the housing sub-market and the results of a consumer sentiment survey about the housing market. This study investigates the relationships between the survey results and an apartment deal price index by size and bidding price rate in apartment auctions by extending research related to consumer sentiment surveys. We surveyed the Seoul Metropolitan Area and analyzed the results using a unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, and cross-correlation test. It was confirmed that causality exists between the survey results and apartment deal price index by size and bidding price rate, and it was also confirmed that there are correlation and precedence relationships between them.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.61-76
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to use the EGARCH model and Granger causality test to analyze how the change in the BDI affects the Korean stock price volatility. The main analysis results are summarized as follows. First, according to the results of the mean equation, the change in the BDI is significant in large-cap stocks, as well as in the manufacturing, service, and chemistry indexes, but not in others. This implies that the Korean stock market does not respond appropriately to the maritime market situation; further, the increase in demand for raw materials has not led to a real economic recovery. Second, in the result of the variance equation, the coefficient on the change in the BDI is negative(-), and the change in the BDI is significant for all size indexes. Particularly, the change in the BDI has a greater impact on the volatility of small-cap stocks than that of large-cap stocks. The results of the analysis of the sector indexes were statistically significant for the service, financial, construction, and electric and electronics industries, but not for the manufacturing and chemical industries. In particular, the changes in the BDI have the greatest impact on the construction industry. Third, according to the Granger causality test results, the change in the BDI leads the financial industry and construction industry. There is, however, no relationship between the BDI and the other indexes. This shows that change in the shipping freight index can be used to predict the volatility in the Korean stock market. This can help investors and policymakers make better decisions.