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The Effect of Baltic Dry Index on the Korean Stock Price Volatility  

Choi, Ki-Hong (부산대학교 경제통상연구원)
Kim, Dong-Yoon (동서대학교 국제물류학과)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Port Economic Association / v.35, no.2, 2019 , pp. 61-76 More about this Journal
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to use the EGARCH model and Granger causality test to analyze how the change in the BDI affects the Korean stock price volatility. The main analysis results are summarized as follows. First, according to the results of the mean equation, the change in the BDI is significant in large-cap stocks, as well as in the manufacturing, service, and chemistry indexes, but not in others. This implies that the Korean stock market does not respond appropriately to the maritime market situation; further, the increase in demand for raw materials has not led to a real economic recovery. Second, in the result of the variance equation, the coefficient on the change in the BDI is negative(-), and the change in the BDI is significant for all size indexes. Particularly, the change in the BDI has a greater impact on the volatility of small-cap stocks than that of large-cap stocks. The results of the analysis of the sector indexes were statistically significant for the service, financial, construction, and electric and electronics industries, but not for the manufacturing and chemical industries. In particular, the changes in the BDI have the greatest impact on the construction industry. Third, according to the Granger causality test results, the change in the BDI leads the financial industry and construction industry. There is, however, no relationship between the BDI and the other indexes. This shows that change in the shipping freight index can be used to predict the volatility in the Korean stock market. This can help investors and policymakers make better decisions.
Keywords
BDI; Stock Market; Volatility; EGARCH;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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